Chad Ford's Mock Draft, Version 5.0: Picks …
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Finally, NBA draft day is here. After weeks of uncertainty, we'll get
resolution Wednesday night (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET) on one of the most unpredictable
drafts in recent history.
How unpredictable?
"I've never seen a draft like this, never," Bobcats GM Bernie Bickerstaff
told Insider on Tuesday night. "There's so much similarity between the
players. We have nothing definitive. We have no conclusions. We're just
waiting for the dominoes to fall like everyone else."
A half-hour later, Bulls GM John Paxson told Insider, "We're not totally sure
what we're doing. There are several different scenarios based on what Toronto
is going to do. We're down to three guys. We've still got three camps. It's
time for me to pick the one that's most comfortable. Hopefully in the morning
I'll know more."
Mock drafts are not an exact science. Less than 24 hours before the draft,
the teams drafting at No. 2 and No. 3 still didn't know what they were going
to do.
Here's our latest take, after talking to numerous NBA team sources, on how
the draft will play out. Check back later on Wednesday for possible updates.
CHAD FORD'S MOCK DRAFT
PICK
TEAM
PLAYER
VITALS
1. Toronto
Andrea Bargnani
Position: PF
Height: 7-1
Weight: 248
Age: 20
Country: Italy
The skinny: I strongly believe that when David Stern reads the first name on
Wednesday night, it will be Andrea Bargnani.
We had Bargnani atop our first mock draft and we have left him there
throughout this entire process, despite much disagreement from other
quarters. Why? Because Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo isn't afraid to go against
the grain, and no one in the NBA knows Bargnani better.
If for some reason Bargnani's name is not called, look for Rudy Gay to be the
man.
2. Chicago
(via New York)
Tyrus Thomas
Position: PF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 217
Age: 19
School: LSU
The skinny: Since the night of the lottery, we've predicted Bargnani would go
to Toronto and Thomas would go to Chicago.
On Tuesday night, I spoke with Bulls GM John Paxson, who told me that the
choice was down to Bargnani, Thomas and LaMarcus Aldridge. Within the Bulls
organization, the respective camps had made their pitches, and Paxson said,
"Now I've got to go pick the guy I feel most comfortable with."
The word is that Paxson is a Thomas fan, but Thomas didn't endear himself to
Chicago coach Scott Skiles with the two workouts he cut short.
Still, according to Paxson, he's making the decision based on who will be
"the best player down the road and a guy who fits the character of the team."
That's Thomas.
3. Charlotte
Rudy Gay
Position: SF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 222
Age: 19
School: UConn
The skinny: On lottery night, in our first full mock draft, we put Adam
Morrison here. The thinking was that he made the most sense for Charlotte.
The franchise is struggling with fans, Morrison is the most popular player in
the draft and he would give the Bobcats the scoring punch they desperately
need.
We changed our projection to Rudy Gay in the second mock draft after getting
some feedback that GM Bernie Bickerstaff thought Gay has more upside than
Morrison.
We went with Brandon Roy in Mock Draft 3.0 after getting word that new
co-owner Michael Jordan preferred Roy to either Morrison or Gay.
Then we went back to Morrison in Mock Draft 4.0.
So how did we end up with Gay? It's just an educated guess.
Tuesday night, Bobcats GM Bernie Bickerstaff told me that the staff was still
evenly split between Gay, Morrison and Roy. The Bobcats are still under
construction, and if they're looking for upside, Gay is the guy.
4. Portland
LaMarcus Aldridge
Position: PF
Height: 6-11
Weight: 234
Age: 20
School: Texas
The skinny: Would the Blazers really pass on fan favorite Adam Morrison?
Tuesday night I learned that most of the Blazers' talent evaluators had Tyrus
Thomas, Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy rated ahead of
Morrison.
Clearly, choosing Morrison would be the most popular decision in Portland,
but it looks like they want a long-term solution instead. Aldridge is a
potentially dominant big man who will fill a need in the middle.
Blazers fans may storm the Rose Garden, but if the Blazers pass on Morrison
and take Aldridge, give the brass credit for sticking to their guns.
5. Atlanta
Shelden Williams
Position: PF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 258
Age: 22
School: Duke
The skinny: From all the evidence we can gather, GM Billy Knight has decided
he wants Williams.
If Roy were to slip this far, as he does in this scenario, the Hawks would
have the option of selecting him for the Rockets and then trading him to
Houston in return for the No. 8 pick and either Luther Head or a future No. 1
pick.
But there's a snag in that plan. The Hawks are concerned that the
Timberwolves or especially the Celtics might take Williams before the Rockets
can draft him at No. 8.
If Roy goes here, expect the Hawks to try to ship him to the Rockets.
6. Minnesota
Adam Morrison
Position: SF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 198
Age: 21
School: Gonzaga
The skinny: The evidence suggests that Morrison will be the pick here if
Tyrus Thomas is off the board, though the Wolves aren't an easy read.
Common sense would suggest that Brandon Roy and Randy Foye would be ahead of
Morrison on Minnesota's board. Roy and Foye fit a need, since Rashad McCants
might be out for the season after having microfracture surgery on his right
knee.
But from what I can gather, Morrison has caught Minnesota executive Kevin
McHale's eye.
7. Boston
Brandon Roy
Position: SG
Height: 6-6
Weight: 207
Age: 21
School: Washington
The skinny: The Celtics remain the hardest team to figure out. They've worked
out just about everyone and could go in just about any direction.
It's fairly likely they'll trade the pick. Portland is trying to get to this
pick and might be willing to give up Sebastian Telfair and picks No. 30 and
31.
The Suns also are trying to move up and would love to get their hands on Roy.
That could give the Celtics pick No. 21 and perhaps Leandro Barbosa.
The Magic also are after Roy and would be willing to give up Keyon Dooling or
Carlos Arroyo to get a trade done.
Or the Celtics could keep the pick, play Roy at the two, put Paul Pierce back
at the three and trade Wally Szczerbiak for more size in the middle.
The team also likes Randy Foye, making him a possibility at this pick.
8. Houston
Randy Foye
Position: SG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 212
Age: 22
School: Villanova
The skinny: The Rockets are trying to move up and get their hands on Brandon
Roy. Their best options for trade partners appear to be the Atlanta Hawks
(drafting No. 5), the Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 6) and the Boston Celtics
(No. 7).
If their efforts fail, the Rockets are hoping one of the top players in the
draft falls to them.
Ending up with Foye would be their worst-case scenario. While Foye is a
better version of Luther Head and could immediately step in and take over as
two-guard, he wouldn't fit a need as well as Roy or Tyrus Thomas would.
If the Rockets can't get someone they need more than Foye, they could end up
trading the pick.
9. Golden State
Ronnie Brewer
Position: SG
Height: 6-7
Weight: 220
Age: 21
School: Arkansas
The skinny: The Warriors don't have any glaring needs and aren't in love with
anyone in the draft. So don't be surprised to see Golden State trade down --
a number of teams, including the Hornets and the Bulls, are after Brewer.
If the Warriors draft and keep Brewer, they'll probably say goodbye to
Mickael Pietrus this summer.
10. Seattle
Hilton Armstrong
Position: C
Height: 6-10
Weight: 240
Age: 21
School: UConn
The skinny: The Sonics would like to get their hands on Shelden Williams, but
apparently he'll be off the board.
So don't be surprised if Seattle looks to trade the pick. A number of teams,
including the Phoenix Suns and the New Jersey Nets, are trying to move up in
the draft.
In fact, it sounds like the Suns and Nets are after the same guy that the
Sonics might settle on -- Armstrong.
11. Orlando
J.J. Redick
Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 190
Age: 22
School: Duke
The skinny: The Magic have been trying to move up in the draft for the past
several weeks to get Brandon Roy or Shelden Williams.
But if those two are off the board, look for Redick to be the pick. While his
off-court problems and back injury have cooled the interest of some teams,
sources in Orlando insist that the Magic are in love with Redick and his
shooting ability.
One alternative is Ronnie Brewer, but it looks like Orlando's focus is on
Redick.
12. New Orleans/
Oklahoma City
Patrick O'Bryant
Position: C
Height: 7-0
Weight: 249
Age: 20
School: Bradley
The skinny: After giving up Jamaal Magloire and losing Chris Andersen to a
drug suspension, the Hornets need an athletic defender who can rebound and
block shots. They're hoping O'Bryant, the best center in the draft, is still
on the board.
O'Bryant is still very raw, but he has the size and athleticism to be a
significant presence in the paint down the road.
Cedric Simmons and Hilton Armstrong, if available, would be options here, as
well.
13. Philadelphia
Cedric Simmons
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 223
Age: 20
School: NC State
The skinny: The Sixers have a lot of needs.
They've been trying to move up in the draft to get Shelden Williams, but to
no avail. If the Celtics somehow can get their hands on Williams at No. 7,
they could deal him to Philly.
The talk is that the Sixers have fallen for two players: Simmons and Shawne
Williams. Simmons reminds GM Billy King of a young Theo Ratliff. With Samuel
Dalembert on the block, the Sixers might need another athletic,
shot-blocking, rebounding presence.
Shawne Williams is not a perfect fit, but he has a rare combination of size,
athleticism and shooting ability.
The Sixers have the option of moving down in the draft a few spots and still
being able to get him.
14. Utah
Mouhamed Saer Sene
Position: C
Height: 7-0
Weight: 232
Age: 20
Country: Senegal
The skinny: Utah's first priority is finding a scoring two-guard. Roy, Foye
and Redick are at the top of the list, and under this scenario Redick is
available.
The problem is that concerns about the long-term health of his back combined
with his DUI arrest are scaring teams such as the Jazz and Magic, who tend to
be more conservative. I'm not saying they won't take him, but it's not a slam
dunk the way it was two weeks ago.
So the Jazz might look at their other need, the center position. The team
could use an athletic shot-blocker to help Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer in
the paint.
That means Mouhamed Saer Sene could be Utah's man. He's a project, but he is
huge and physical, with great upside. And Karl Malone loved him when he came
in for a workout.
15. NO/OC Hornets
(via Milwaukee)
Rodney Carney
Position: SF
Height: 6-6
Weight: 204
Age: 22
School: Memphis
The skinny: The Hornets will be psyched if Carney is still on the board here.
The team could use an athletic, sweet-shooting swingman, and Carney has the
experience to compete right away. Questions about Carney's toughness and
desire are the only reasons he might slip this far.
If Carney is off the board, Thabo Sefolosha and Marcus Vinicius Vieira de
Souza are possibilities.
16. Chicago
Thabo Sefolosha
Position: SF
Height: 6-6
Weight: 215
Age: 22
Country: Switzerland
The skinny: If the Bulls address their frontcourt with pick No. 2, look for
them to try to add a big two-guard to fill their need in the backcourt.
Ronnie Brewer and Rodney Carney would be likely targets if still on the board.
If they're not, the Bulls could turn to Sefolosha. He's long, athletic and
experienced, with a balanced all-around game. Temple's Mardy Collins would be
another option.
If the Bulls decide to go for Brandon Roy with the No. 2 pick, an athletic
forward such as Alexander Johnson or a center like Mouhamed Saer Sene could
be the guy, depending on who's available.
17. Indiana
Marcus Williams
Position: PG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 215
Age: 20
School: UConn
The skinny: According to this scenario, the Pacers, once again at No. 17,
would find themselves in a situation similar to last year, with two potential
lottery picks to choose from.
In this case, Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo are the guys. Both players
could go as high as the mid-lottery but could also slip to here.
If neither Williams nor Rondo is on the board, the team has a number of other
options. Shannon Brown has the potential to be a better version of Fred
Jones. The Pacers also like Florida State's Alexander Johnson, a
superathletic power forward who can play like Kenyon Martin. With Jermaine
O'Neal constantly nursing injuries and potentially on the trading block,
finding someone to support or replace O'Neal is important. Olexsiy Pecherov
or Quincy Douby also would make some sense here.
18. Washington
Olexsiy Pecherov
Position: PF
Height: 6-11
Weight: 222
Age: 21
Country: Ukraine
The skinny: Pecherov is a Keith Van Horn clone (right down to the haircut)
who can play both inside and outside.
He's turned himself into an excellent rebounder in Paris this year and could
be a nice long-term project for Washington.
19. Sacramento
Alexander Johnson
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 230
Age: 23
School: FSU
The skinny: We've had Sergio Rodriguez here for several weeks, but now we
hear that the Kings are worried about his defense and lack of athletic
ability. Besides, we're hearing that the Kings want to go big.
Johnson's athleticism, toughness and game-readiness would be a great fit for
the Kings. Rajon Rondo and Olexsiy Pecherov could also be a fit here, if
available.
20. New York
(via Denver)
Shawne Williams
Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 227
Age: 20
School: Memphis
The skinny: Williams is a guy Knicks coach/president Isiah Thomas can love.
He is long and athletic, plays multiple positions and can shoot. He really
needs another year of school, but playing for the Knicks is like playing for
the JV at this point, anyway.
Shannon Brown and Alexander Johnson are also options here.
21. Phoenix
(via L.A. Lakers)
Shannon Brown
Position: SG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 190
Age: 20
School: Mich State
The skinny: The Suns have been trying to move up in the draft to get Brandon
Roy, Hilton Armstrong, Rodney Carney or Mouhamed Saer Sene.
If all are off the board when the Suns pick, they will have a tough choice
between Rondo and Brown. Rondo would fit the need for a backup point guard,
but Brown is more ready to contribute now and would buy the Suns some
insurance if they move Leandro Barbosa this summer.
22. New Jersey
(via L.A. Clippers)
Rajon Rondo
Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 171
Age: 20
School: Kentucky
The skinny: If Rondo is available at No. 22, that means he took a major
slide. But it could happen if he gets past Boston at No. 7, the Pacers at No.
17, the Wizards at No. 18 and the Kings at No. 19.
He would be a great pickup for the Nets, who need a backup for Jason Kidd.
Rondo's speed and defense would really boost the Nets' up-tempo attack.
23. New Jersey
Quincy Douby
Position: SG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 175
Age: 22
School: Rutgers
The skinny: The Nets desperately need to upgrade their frontcourt and have
been trying to package the No. 22 and No. 23 picks to get up to No. 10 or No.
12.
If they stay here, they'll probably just go with the best backcourt player
available. Douby is a fantastic shooter who could provide an instant scoring
boost off the bench.
24. Memphis
Kyle Lowry
Position: PG
Height: 6-0
Weight: 185
Age: 20
School: Villanova
The skinny: The Grizzlies have been searching for a center ever since Bryant
Reeves retired. With Lorenzen Wright hitting free agency this summer, the
need has never been greater. However, with Patrick O'Bryant, Hilton
Armstrong, Mouhamed Saer Sene and Alexander Johnson likely to be off the
board, there won't be many options left.
If they can't find anyone for the frontcourt, they'd be smart to grab Lowry.
They have a pretty big question mark at the point. No one is sure whether
Damon Stoudamire will return at 100 percent this season, and Chucky Atkins is
a free agent.
Jordan Farmar, Sergio Rodriguez and Dee Brown are also options here, and
Alexander Johnson is a candidate if he slides.
25. Cleveland
Jordan Farmar
Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 171
Age: 19
School: UCLA
The skinny: GM Danny Ferry is praying that one of the top point guards --
Rajon Rondo, Kyle Lowry, Sergio Rodriguez or Jordan Farmar -- falls to him
here. Eric Snow peaked years ago, and it looks like Damon Jones is on the
downslope of his career, too.
Farmar may be the best-case scenario for Cleveland. He's a pure point guard
with great athleticism. He should be able to step in right away and
contribute.
Another possibility is Texas' Daniel Gibson. He's not a pure point guard, but
he would be fine alongside LeBron James and Larry Hughes on the perimeter.
26. L.A. Lakers
James White
Position: SG
Height: 6-7
Weight: 202
Age: 23
School: Cincinnati
The skinny: White is the best athlete left on the board. He can jump out of
the gym and he plays great perimeter defense.
He's still working on his jump shot and his offensive game in general, but
he's a sleeper who should be better in the NBA than in college.
27. Phoenix
Sergio Rodriguez
Position: PG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 170
Age: 20
Country: Spain
The skinny: After Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo, Rodriguez is the best pure
point guard in the draft. He also has some big-time experience in Spain.
At some point the Suns will need to rest Steve Nash, and Rodriguez is an
intelligent point guard who can play the way coach Mike D'Antoni wants to
play.
Michigan State's Maurice Ager and Texas' Daniel Gibson are also options here.
28. Dallas
Maurice Ager
Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 203
Age: 22
School: Mich State
The skinny: The Mavs can always use a player who can stroke the ball, and
Ager was that guy for the Spartans all year. His combination of athleticism,
defense and shooting ability should make him a nice replacement for Jerry
Stackhouse when Stack's contract expires in the summer of 2007.
29. New York
(via San Antonio)
Guillermo Diaz
Position: SG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 190
Age: 20
School: Miami
The skinny: We've had UConn's Josh Boone in this spot for a month, but it's
looking more and more like the Knicks didn't give him a promise.
Diaz isn't a fit, but don't worry, Knicks fans. Most likely, the Knicks will
use the pick as bait for the Heat, who have been trying to move up to get
Diaz.
30. Portland
(via Detroit)
Solomon Jones
Position: C
Height: 6-10
Weight: 224
Age: 21
School: South Florida
The skinny: The Blazers are not exactly ready to contend, so don't be shocked
if they take a flier on a kid who's still several years away.
Jones is long and athletic, and he can rebound and block shots. His size
should come in handy down the road.
Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
--
"We'll see them bandwagon ass-cats come May and June," - Rasheed Wallace
--
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