ESPN Insider: list of top PG prospects (2005)
Updated: March 23, 2005
By Chad Ford, ESPN Insider
What the 2005 NBA draft lacks in size, it makes up for in one of the deepest
and most diverse point-guard classes in the past 10 years.
We said similar things last year about a class that included Shaun Livingston,
Devin Harris, Ben Gordon (who might never actually play point), Jameer Nelson
and Beno Udrih. But the emphasis is even stronger this year.
"This is the deepest point-guard class that I can ever remember," one GM told
Insider. "It's not very top-heavy. Chris Paul is the only guy I think can be
a superstar at the next level, but there are a lot of guys on the list this
year that will play a long time in the league."
Many of them are concentrated in the ACC - as many as five ACC point guards
could go in the first round this year.
They come in all sizes and flavors. There are old-school, pass-first point
guards. High-octane combo guards who can score at a furious clip. There are
small point guards who give you the speed to run a high-octane offense and
big guards who can play multiple positions, create defensive nightmares and
see over their opponents.
And then there are a handful of players whom we don't know about for sure.
Some scouts say they're shooting guards. Others say they can be turned into
points. Typically, the in-betweens tend to be shooting guards in point-guard
clothing. But with the success of players such as Gilbert Arenas, Dwyane Wade
and Chauncey Billups running and gunning, there's now a place for those guys
too.
Here's our first look at what should be a decent point-guard class.
Note: The list includes all players who we believe might declare for the
2005 draft.
1. Chris Paul, Wake Forest
The line: 6-1, 170, sophomore
The skinny: Paul is a consensus top-three pick in the draft. Scouts believe
he is the best point-guard prospect since Jason Kidd. Not just some of them.
Everyone Insider talked to. It's easy to understand why scouts absolutely
love him. He is T.J. Ford with a jumper. He's lightning quick, has
unbelievable court vision, is a superb decision-maker and shoots the lights
out from the field and the 3-point line. He pushes the ball relentlessly on
offense and already is one of the best penetrators in the game. His defense
is also top-notch. Teams wish Paul was stronger, but given his age they
believe that will come. Paul continues to claim that he's returning to Wake
for his junior season regardless of what the draft buzz is surrounding him.
However, if his hometown Bobcats get the first pick in the draft and let him
know he's their choice, he might have a tough time saying no.
2. Deron Williams, Illinois
The line: 6-3, 210, junior
The skinny: More and more scouts are claiming that the second-best point-guard
prospect is Williams. While Paul is getting tagged as the best point-guard
prospect since Kidd, Williams is getting the rep as the player whose style
and body most resemble Kidd's. "Deron is a lot like Kidd in the halfcourt,"
one NBA scout said. "They play the same way. They're both straight-line guys.
Once he gets his hip on you, he's gone. Deron's not as fast as Kidd in the
open court, but Deron can shoot. Jason can't." Not everyone agrees. Some
scouts think he lacks the speed and quickness to be a great NBA point guard.
However, most scouts feel that Williams' playmaking ability, size, strength
and floor vision make up for his lack of speed in the open court. Look for
him to go anywhere between the late lottery to mid-first round.
3. Raymond Felton, North Carolina
The line: 6-1, 198, junior
The skinny: It's not clear whether Felton will be in the draft, but if he is
he'll challenge Williams to be the second point guard taken. Felton's lack
of size and his inconsistent shooting stroke hurt his cause, but his blazing
speed and feel for running a team make up for it. Several scouts consider
Felton the best "pure" point guard in this group. Right now, Felton is
considered a late lottery to mid-first-rounder.
4. Daniel Gibson, Texas
The line: 6-2, 190, freshman
The skinny: Gibson has just about everything you could ask for in a point
guard. He's an excellent athlete, he's very quick and he has good size for
the position. He has the ability to score from the perimeter or by attacking
the basket, and he's great in the open court. He has excellent floor vision
and never lets his scoring get in the way of getting his teammates involved.
But is he ready? He's still turnover-prone and makes too many mistakes.
He says he'll turn pro if he's guaranteed a lottery pick. Right now, scouts
have him in the 15-20 range. Another year in school and he'll be in the
lottery for sure.
5. Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas
The line: 6-7, 210, sophomore
The skinny: Some scouts believe that Brewer has the tools to be a point guard
in the pros. That makes him an incredibly sexy prospect at 6-foot-7.
His excellent athleticism, long arms and ball-handling skills have drawn
comparisons to Marquis Daniels. Brewer, however, plays with an aggressiveness
that often surpasses what Daniels did at the collegiate level. Brewer is a
good defender, using his long arms to swipe away passes in the lane. The only
question scouts really have about Brewer is his outside shot. Despite the
fact that he's shooting 41 percent from 3-point range, scouts have uniformly
complained about his shooting mechanics. That concern extends all the way to
the free-throw line, where he shoots just 65 percent. He's looked at as a
mid-to-late first-round pick.
6. Guillermo Diaz, Miami
The line: 6-2, 183, sophomore
The skinny: Diaz is, hands down, one of the most athletic guards to eye the
draft in quite a while. Depending on who you ask, his vertical jump ranges
anywhere from 45 to 50 inches. This year, he's proved that he's more than
just a great dunker. His outside shot and his decision-making skills have
improved. No one questions his heart. Diaz is a fierce competitor whose
toughness on the court has made Heat president Pat Riley a fan. While few in
the league refer to him as a point guard, he sees the floor well enough to
play that position in the NBA - at least part time. He still plays out of
control and tries to do too much, but the talent is undeniable. Sources claim
that Diaz is likely to test the draft waters this summer. With the success of
combo guards such as Dwyane Wade, Gilbert Arenas and Ben Gordon, teams are
going to give him a long look in the mid-to-late first round.
7. Monta Ellis, Lanier High School (Jackson, Miss.)
The line: 6-3, 175, high school senior
The skinny: Ellis does just about everything well. But is he a point guard?
He's an unbelievable scorer who averages 41 ppg. But he is also a good passer
with a polished game. Scouts say that he plays with an amazing amount of
control for a high school kid. He also has the rep as a great shooter with
a lightning-quick release. Ellis is not an elite athlete, but he's athletic
enough to play at a higher level. Word around the league is that Ellis already
has decided to test the waters. His draft position is difficult to predict
right now. It all depends on whether scouts see him as a real point guard or
a combo guard. If they decide he's a point, he's likely to go somewhere in
the 20s. If they don't, he'd better honor his commitment to Mississippi State.
8. Mardy Collins, Temple
The line: 6-5, 205, junior
The skinny: The 6-5 junior point guard has earned respect from a number of
NBA scouts after putting on dominating displays against Wake Forest (25
points, five rebounds, seven steals) and Duke (23 points, six rebounds, six
steals). In the Wake game, scouts walked away saying that Collins had
outplayed Paul, many people's pick for the top selection in the draft. Unlike
other "big" point guards, Collins isn't just a combo guard with a few passing
skills. He can handle the ball, set up the offense, make the spectacular play
and score when his team needs him. He's not the best 3-point shooter of the
group and has trouble defensively against small, quick point guards. Still,
scouts are already calling him a first-round draft sleeper if he chooses to
come out. His stock has been steadily rising all year. Don't be surprised if
he moves up several spots on this board by the time of the draft.
9. John Gilchrist, Maryland
The line: 6-2, 200, junior
The skinny: Gilchrist is tough, has great athleticism and an NBA body, can
score and pass, and has hit some clutch shots for Maryland in the past two
years. So why isn't he ranked higher on the list? He's so much like like
Stephon Marbury in style and attitude that he's scaring off a number of
scouts who feel that Marbury's style of play puts up great numbers but
doesn't win in the NBA. After a great start this season, Gilchrist hit a
disastrous midseason slump that sent his stock plummeting. He's still on the
first-round bubble, but given the beating he's taken this year it might be
wise to return for his senior season.
10. Jarrett Jack, Georgia Tech
The line: 6-3, 200, junior
The skinny: Jack finished another up-and-down year with a poor showing in the
NCAA Tournament. That's not really the image you want to project if you're a
point guard. Some scouts question his court intelligence and leadership.
He's an excellent rebounder for a point guard. He's also a good defender who
collects a decent number of steals. Still, scouts worry that he plays a little
out of control at times. His 3.7 turnovers per game are fairly high for such
a natural point. He doesn't have great 3-point range on his jumper, and he
struggles to shoot off the dribble. His draft stock continues to plummet and
he now looks like a solid second round pick. He might have to return to
college for his senior season.
Best of the rest:
Roko Leni Ukic, Croatia; Curtis Stinson, Iowa State; Daniel Ewing, Duke;
Luther Head, Illinois; ; Chris Thomas, Notre Dame; Travis Diener, Marquette;
Anthony Roberson, Florida; Aaron Miles, Kansas;
Tim Smith, East Tennessee State; Jose Juan Barea, Northeastern;
Ivan Koljevic, Serbia; Ender Arslan, Turkey; Marcelo Huertas, Brazil
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