[專欄] 小時候胖不是胖　開季成績僅供參考

看板NFL (國家美式橄欖球聯盟)作者sampsonlu919 (湖人最該自盡的人：顆比)時間13年前 (2012/10/03 21:17)推噓15(15推 0噓 5→)

留言20則, 11人參與討論串1/1

Beware of Early Season Phonies! 原文：http://bit.ly/SCrZhI By Jim Feist(吉姆‧費斯特) 翻譯：http://bit.ly/PWiNqJ By 黃金獵犬 So...are we all set for the Texans/Chargers AFC Championship game? Because after just two weeks, those were the only two undefeated teams in the AFC. After three weeks the NFC had only two unbeatens, as well, the Falcons and Cardinals. Did anyone pick a Cardinals/Chargers Super Bowl? The Cardinals haven't on anybody's radar to win the NFC. Yet, there they were at the end of September among the NFL elite in the standings. 我們都準備好觀賞德州人跟電光人爭奪美聯冠軍了嗎？因為經過2週之後，美國聯會只有這2支球隊沒輸過。經過3週之後，國聯也只有2支球隊沒輸過，分別是獵鷹與紅雀。但有任何人認為紅雀或電光人能拿到超級盃嗎？紅雀甚至不被人認定能拿到國聯的冠軍！但9月結束時，他們的戰績並列在聯盟首位。 I bring this up to emphasis the importance of patience. A hot start is nice but guarantees nothing. Scheduling, injuries, personnel changes are all significant factors in the success of a football team, and a hot start doesn't mean that a team is great, just as a cold start doesn't mean a club is out of it. 我提起這些，只是想強調耐心的重要性。火熱的開季表現固然很好，但並不保證整季都一樣好。賽程、傷兵、人員更迭等，在在都會影響球隊的成功與否。開季打得好並不代表他就是支強隊，同樣地，開季打得差也不等於今年就沒希望。 This happens all the time. Scheduling can hurt a team out of the gate, as can injuries. A year ago the Bears started 7-3 before losing QB Jay Cutler and their top running back and finished 8-8. Speaking of playing .500 football that's what the Giants were late last season before getting hot at the right time and winning their second Super Bowl in four years. 同樣的事情重複地發生，賽程的安排可以讓任何一支球隊被掃地出門，傷兵同樣也是。一年前熊隊在失去四分衛卡特勒(Jay Cutler)前，戰績是7勝3敗，而最後卻以8勝8敗作收。說到5成勝率，巨人上一季就是在球季結束之前開始加溫，最後抱回了他們4年內的第2座超級盃。 Basketball guru Red Auerbach used to say, "It's not the five who start, it's the five who finish." We saw that two years ago, too, as the Green Bay Packers were fortunate to stumble into the playoffs on the final day of the season, then went on a red-hot roll on the way to winning the whole thing. NBA傳奇教練紅頭奧貝克(Red Auerbach)總是說，「重要的不是哪五人先發，重要的是哪五人結束比賽。」在兩年前我們也看過一次，包裝工在球季的最後一天，幸運的進入了季後賽，接下來一路贏得冠軍。 Two years ago at this time the Bears and Chiefs were two of the remaining three unbeaten teams. They made the playoffs, but the Chiefs were one-and- done while the Bears fell short in the NFC title game. The Chiefs had been 85-to-1 to win the Super Bowl that season. 兩年前的這個時候，熊隊與酋長是聯盟3支不敗球隊中的2支，他們成功的進入季後賽，但酋長第一場就被淘汰，而熊隊則在國聯冠軍戰中落敗。酋長當季獲得超級盃的賠率是 1賠85。 Sure, in 2009 the eventual Super Bowl participants, the Colts and Saints, had red-hot starts, both not far from 16-0 regular seasons. 2009年超級盃的爭奪者小馬與聖徒，的確從季初狀況就不錯，兩隊都離全勝紀錄不遠。 Yet, four years ago as late last Xmas the Cardinals were an 8-7 team and had just gotten thrashed at New England, 47-7. No one was talking about Arizona as Super Bowl material, but a month later, there they were. 然而，4年前的聖誕節，紅雀戰績只有8勝7敗，而且他們以47比7慘敗給愛國者，沒有人認為他們能夠參與超級盃賽事，但一個月後，他們做到了。 Naturally, a team doesn't want to start 0-3 like this year's Chiefs, Colts, Dolphins, but a poor start isn't a death knell. You may recall that seven years ago the Panthers started 1-2, but ended up in the NFC Title game. 沒有隊伍希望以0勝3敗開局，就像今年的酋長、小馬、海豚一樣。但開季表現不好，並不代表直接被判死刑，記得7年前，黑豹開季1勝2敗，但後來他們奪得國聯冠軍。 A poor start makes it tough as there are only 16 games and few teams even qualify for the postseason. On the other hand, a hot start isn't mandatory. In 2003, the Eagles looked terrible during a 0-2 SU/ATS start just before their bye week. That team then went 11-3 against the spread the rest of the regular season, winning 13 of their next 15 games on the way to the NFC Championship game. The Patriots started 2-2 in 2003, then proceeded to go 15-0 SU, 12-3 ATS on the way to winning the Super Bowl. 開季打得差，只是會讓球隊接下來打得更辛苦而已，因為整季只有16場比賽，季後賽名額又少，但相對地，一開始打得很好也並不代表從此就一帆風順。在2003年球季，老鷹開季0勝2敗，第3週休兵，休息過後，老鷹在剩餘的15場比賽中贏了13場，並一路殺進國聯冠軍賽。同年愛國者以2勝2敗開局，接下來15戰全勝，最後贏得超級盃。 If you think a good start is important, remember the 2003 Vikings. The boys in purple started 6-0 SU/ATS, only to fold, missing the playoffs during a 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS finish. Miami also started 4-1 SU/ATS that season, only to go 3-8 against the spread and miss the playoffs. In 2009 the Broncos started 6-0 SU/ATS, then went 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS to miss the postseason. 如果你認為火熱的開局很重要的話，讓我們來看看2003年的維京人。他們開季戰績6勝 0敗，但接下來戰績3勝7敗，連季後賽都進不去。同年海豚也打出4勝1敗的開局成績，但之後同樣錯過季後賽。2009年野馬開季6連勝，緊接著是慘不忍睹的2勝8敗，無緣進入季後賽。 It's a marathon and all kinds of things can crop up to derail a potential playoff run: Poor defense, injuries, bad luck, even scheduling, or bad chemistry. The Chiefs were the hottest team in the NFL the first half of the 2003 season, starting 9-0 SU and 8-1 against the number. There even was a future's bet offered on whether the Chiefs would run the regular season table undefeated. That wager didn't last long as Kansas City finished 4-4 straight up and 2-6 against the spread after that 9-0 start NFL賽季是場馬拉松賽跑，期間有太多因素會影響球隊表現，諸如：傷兵、防守變差、運氣不好等等，甚至賽程安排或是球隊的磨合不順利。酋長在2003年上半季是聯盟最火熱的球隊，戰績9勝0敗，莊家甚至為他們開出當年能否拿下16戰全勝的賭盤。不過好景不常，接下來他們只拿到4勝4敗。 The same thing happened with the 2005 13-0 Colts. When the AFC Championship game was being played, the Colts were home watching it on TV. 同樣的情形也發生在2005年球季的小馬身上，小馬開季13連勝，但當美聯冠軍賽開打時，小馬隊員是坐在家裡的電視機前觀看這場比賽。 Can the Giants repeat? The last time they were the defending champion the Giants started a sizzling 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS in 2008, but finished 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS, failing to win a playoff game. That was somewhat reminiscent of the 2003 Giants, who started 2-1 SU/ATS, then limped to a 2-11 SU finish while going 1-11-1 against the number. 巨人能夠複製去年的成功嗎？上一次當他們要衛冕冠軍的時候，在2008年開季打出了 11勝1敗，但接下來只拿到1勝4敗的成績，未能贏得任何一場季後賽。這也讓人回想起 2003年巨人開季2勝1敗，接下來卻是可悲的2勝11敗。 If your team is off to a disappointing start, relax; and if your team is off to a hot start, don’t start making preparations for the playoffs. It's not the fastest horse out of the gate, but the one who crosses the finish line (just as Tom Coughlin and his two Super Bowl rings). 如果你支持的球隊開季令人失望，請不要緊張；而如果你支持的球隊有個火熱的開局，也不要提早就開始準備搶購季後賽門票。最快衝出柵門的馬並不能代表甚麼，只有第一匹通過終點線的馬才是贏家，就像巨人隊的總教練考夫林(Tom Coughlin)跟他所拿下的兩座超級盃一樣。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 心得：不過如果你喜歡的球隊開季4連敗，是不是寧可把期待放在狀元籤，心情才會比較好些呢？ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.166.202.203

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