Re: [洋基] Note to Cash: Hold off on Cameron deal

看板NY-Yankees作者kenny613 (fw)時間17年前 (2008/12/15 18:11)推噓27(27推 0噓 4→)

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自己亂翻的 ------------------------- : http://0rz.tw/e259l : Posted by: Joseph P. in Hot Stove League : The Winter Meetings may have passed, but it’s still relatively early in the : baseball off-season. As you can see on our sidebar widget, there are still : two months until pitchers and catchers report (the biggest day of the year on : which nothing happens). That’s plenty of time for the Yankees to sift : through their options and decide on the best course of action for the 2009 : team. We’ve been debating this hotly in the comments, and aside from a few : overzealous folks, most everyone is making cogent points. 冬季會議剛結束，但MLB季後賽才正要開打，還有兩個月的時間，洋基可以慢慢的決定怎麼樣作，才是對2009年球季最好的補強。 : I explained on Friday night that I think there are two paths the Yankees can : take right now. First is to create a more balanced team. This would entail : bringing back Andy Pettitte to fill the fourth/fifth slot in the rotation and : trading for Mike Cameron. The lineup would then be filled with solid, : established players (and a high-ceiling guy in Cano), and the rotation would : be solid one through five. It would give the Yankees the depth to deal with : an injury or two. It would give the team even more of a veteran presence. 上禮拜五晚上我提出洋基現在有兩條路可以走，第一是打造一個更均衡的球隊，包括把派帥簽回來填4/5號先發，然後把Cameron交易回來，打線會更穩定（包括Cano），輪值從一號到五號都會很穩定，而且就算一兩個先發受傷也不會受太大影響。（CC、WANG、AJB、JOBA：科科，可以輪休嗎？） : The other path the Yankees can explore is an all-in push for 2009. By signing : CC and A.J., the Yankees have begun such a movement. Adding a big bat like : Manny Ramirez or Mark Teixeira (as we’ve heard from our favorite : rumormonger) or even Adam Dunn would re-ignite the talks of a 1,000-run : offense. The difference, of course, is that this year the Yanks have the : pitching to match it. The lineup would be disgusting one through nine, and : the rotation would still feature a top four you can place against any team in : the league. 另外一條路則是全梭下去的2009補強，經由簽下CC和AJB，洋基已經有很大的動作，那再加一支大棒子，就像是我們常聽到的rumor：鐵爺或是Manny，甚至是蛋，都可以拉升全隊到1000分等級的攻擊能力。當然會有所爭議的，是洋基的投手是否能趕得上這個打線，這樣的打線從一到九棒排開，會非常噁心，而且前四輪值對上全聯盟任何一隊也都還有一定水準。 : At this point, adding Cameron might hamper the team’s ability to sign one of : the boppers on the market. While some cite the $88 million that came off the : payroll after last season, that’s not the whole story. Some players are due : raises, and others weren’t on the opening-day payroll (Marte, Nady). So : let's go through the team’s current commitments (plus arbitration estimates): 在現在這個關鍵，補上Cameron的約，會阻礙球隊簽下上面提到的大棒子的預算空間。好不容易上個球季才清空了88M的預算，而且還有沒處理的部分。包括有些球員像是 Marte, Nady都還要續約，現在我們就來看看球隊的預算。 : 2009 Payroll : Player Sal. : A-Rod $32 : Sabathia $23 * : Jeter $20 : Burnett $16.5 * : Mo $15 : Jorge $13.1 : Damon $13 : Matsui $13 : Swisher $5.3 : Wang $5 ** : Marte $3.75 : Nady $6 ** : Cano $6 : Molina $1 : Bruney $1.2 ** : * AAV of contract : ** Arb estimate : That totals $173.85 million in committed salaries for 15 players. That leaves : 10 more players, likely for the most part under the reserve clause, which : will keep their salaries in the $400 to $500,000 range. Even at the high end, : $5 million for those 10 players, that leaves the Yanks with a $183.85 million : opening day payroll. Notice how it’s right around the team’s stated goal of : $180 million. 目前簽下上面的15個球員就需要173.85M，還剩下約10幾個球員的薪資，大部分都會落在$400 to $500,000之間，就算全部都用5M計算，那洋基開幕的薪資數字大約會是 183.85M，這樣已經超過了球隊本來的180M預算目標（CC、A-rod：別算這麼清楚嘛～）。 : Still, we know the Yankees. They could find a way to squeeze another contract : in there. Perhaps they backload A.J.’s deal, knowing that $26 million comes : off the books from Damon and Matsui after the year. That would give them the : flexibility now to add a bat and still keep the payroll under $200 million. : If you add Andy Pettitte, it’s almost impossible to add a bat without : exceeding 2008’s payroll. Same with Mike Cameron. So the choices going : forward: : 1) Sign Pettitte. Sign bat. Screw payroll. : 2) Sign Pettitte. Trade for Cameron. Go into season like that. : 3) Let Pettitte retire or go elsewhere. Let Milwaukee pay Cameron’s salary. : Sign big bat. 不過我們知道洋基就是洋基，現金人會尋求一個解決方式，再把預算多榨出來一點。或許他們對AJ的約有設下什麼限制，像是Damon和Matsui今年之後的26M薪資一樣，（這裡不太懂，高手請幫忙解釋一下這兩位大哥的約是綁了什麼），保留了充足的預算彈性，來補進大棒子然後讓預算仍然保持低於200M以下。如果要補派帥，那麼幾乎不可能補進任何一個大棒子，就算是Cameron也一樣，以下是即將出現的選項： 1）簽下派帥、簽下大棒子，管他預算是怎樣。 2）簽下派帥、交易Cameron，2009年球季開打 3）放棄派帥，讓釀酒人付Cameron的薪水，衝大棒子！ : Without choosing one over the rest (though No. 1 is clearly the best option), : this all leads me to believe that the Yankees should hold off on this Cameron : deal. Wait until the rest of the bats are off the market so you can see where : everyone else stands. Some might say that this would drive up the price for : Cameron. Not so. At least, I don’t think it will. What other teams would be : interested in a 35-year-old CFer making $10 million? That list begins and : ends with the Yankees. 沒有選擇上面的任何一個選項的話。雖然第一個選項很明顯是最棒的選項，讓我相信洋基一定會先hold住Cameron的交易，等到其他的大棒子都已經就定位之後再說。有些人認為洋基最後還是會吃下Cameron 的薪資，但至少我不這麼認為，其他隊會對35歲的CF開出10M的薪資嗎？如果有這樣的球隊名單，相信開始和結束的唯一名字都會是Yankees。 : If the Yankees do add Teixeira or Manny or Dunn, they won’t have room for : Cameron anyway. All three make the outfield rather crowded — Tex by moving : Swisher there, Manny and Dunn because they play there. True, the later two : could DH, but what about Hideki? You can’t blindly rely on him to play in : 120, 130 games, but you also can’t relegate him to bench duty. He’s too : good when healthy, and is making too much money. 如果洋基真的簽下鐵爺或Manny或Dunn，他們不可能還會有空間給Cameron，上面提到三個中的任何一個，都會讓外野變得非常擠，鐵爺會把Swisher擠出去、Manny和Dunn 本來就是外野手，不過說實話最後兩個名字應該就是DH跑不掉了。（松井：不要啊～）。那還有松井呢？我們不能一廂情願的認為松井可以打120、130場，但我們也不能把松井丟到板凳上。當松井健康的時候他是非常好的選手，同時也非常的貴。（守板凳總比守DL好吧....>_<） : Mike Cameron will still be available in January. The Yankees might as well : wait on that and see if they can better improve the team with a better bat. 總之，Cameron到一月前都還可以談，洋基可能會等到那時候，看看有沒有那時候有沒有補到其他更猛的角色來幫助球隊了。 --------------------------------- 報告完畢。請問誰知道Damon和Matsui的約是怎麼簽的可以省預算？？今晚你想要吃哪一道呢？ 1）簽下派帥、簽下大棒子，管他預算是怎樣。 2）簽下派帥、交易Cameron，2009年球季開打 3）放棄派帥，讓釀酒人付Cameron的薪水，衝大棒子！ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.220.29.124

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kenny613

12/15 18:14, , 1^F

12/15 18:14, 1^F

※ 編輯: kenny613 來自: 61.220.29.124 (12/15 18:15)

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luaniu

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