[新聞] Short rest, no relaxation

看板NY-Yankees作者kevinloo (Going to Oz Open)時間16年前 (2009/11/04 23:37)推噓18(18推 0噓 12→)

留言30則, 21人參與討論串1/1

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/03/AR2009110303456.html By Thomas Boswell Lose the right way. For years, I heard veteran players and managers explain their decisions by a kind of inverted logic. Their phrasing changed, but their meaning didn't. They worked backwards, inverted the question, and gave as much weight to figuring out what they should avoid doing as to what they should do. "Don't lose the game with your third-best pitch." "Don't let Barry Bonds beat you. Make somebody else do it." And, in my favorite bit of practical advice, not just in baseball, "Lose the right way." Don't be a control freak. Don't pretend you can't lose. Respect the game and the talent of your opponents. Work backwards. Figure out a sound strategy that -- even if it doesn't work -- allows you to sleep at night in defeat. Apparently, nobody ever said, "Lose the right way" to Joe Girardi and the Yankees. Or at least they weren't listening. One of the game's truisms is that you should avoid using your pitchers on short rest in the postseason. Some succeed and become famous for it. But most don't. Above all, don't put an entire rotation on short rest unless there is simply no alternative. To opt for short rest, especially for a whole rotation, when it is not necessary, when you hold what will probably be a winning hand without doing anything radical, is the definition of putting yourself in position to "lose the wrong way." But the Yankees have gone and done it in this World Series. They might escape Girardi's blunder. They have two games in which to win just one. They have the home crowd. They have Mariano Rivera in the bullpen. The Phillies have Brad Lidge. However, the Yankees also have one bludgeoning stat looking them in the face, which they should have known and respected more: Since 1999, according to Fox's broadcast, pitchers starting a postseason games on three days' rest against pitchers on full rest have a combined 12-36 record. That's not bad; it's abysmal. Yet stark as this statistic is, its message may be even more blunt. Most of those 48 pitchers who started on three days' rest were star hurlers or close to it. Nobody warps a postseason rotation so a donkey can start on short rest. You only do it for the studs. You can bet that the Yanks and Girardi convinced themselves that CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte were somehow different and better than other pitchers who have been used on short rest and failed. In the case of all three, Girardi cited past success on three days' rest, though in Pettitte's case it was years ago and Burnett's was in midseason. Besides, many were quick to remember the pitchers who had succeeded in famous games on short rest, such as Josh Beckett in '03 and Curt Schilling in '01. Once again, the exceptions merely proved the rule. That's why they're so vivid: They're so rare. The latest example of a "normal" result is Monday's Game 5 of the World Series, in which rested Cliff Lee topped short-rested Burnett, who was knocked out by six runs in two innings, equaling his worst start in the last five years. The next example will probably be a Pedro Martínez victory over Pettitte on short rest in Game 6 on Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. Pettitte, who has been getting an extra fifth day of rest throughout these playoffs, said that his win in Game 3 was the grittiest postseason escape of his career. "It was a battle. I wasn't able to get ahead. I wasn't able to get my breaking ball over," Pettitte said. "It was tough. I'm not going to lie to you. I couldn't put the ball where I wanted to . . . It was an absolute grind." Now he has to do it again? On two less days rest? If there is a Game 7 Thursday, the Yankees will send Sabathia, pitching on three days' rest for the second consecutive start, against (most likely) Cole Hamels on normal rest. New York is still keeping its cool, pointing out that Pettitte not only holds the record for most postseason wins (17-9) but for most series-clinching wins, too. See, he's different. Right? More likely, the Yankees' trio is, as a group, simply typical. On short rest, Sabathia loses a foot-and-a-half off his fastball and must go to his changeup and slider. He's still good, but not as overpowering -- in other words, not quite Sabathia. Burnett loses tilt on his slider and command. On Wednesday, we'll find out what Pettitte has to pitch without. But it will be something. That's why there has been, and will continue to be, so much fuss about Girardi's decision to avoid using his obscure but decent (34-35 career) fourth starter Chad Gaudin in Game 4. Thanks to postseason off days and rain, the Yanks hadn't started Gaudin in nearly a month. The more they lucked out (in their minds) and skipped him, the rustier he got. So, despite leading the Series by a game, Girardi bypassed the serviceable option of Gaudin-plus-staff in Game 4. The Phils just kept their normal rotation and hoped that Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.05 ERA) could somehow keep them in the game against Sabathia. And he did. Entering the ninth, Game 4 was tied, 4-4. The game was decided -- as this Series may ultimately be -- by the difference between closers. The most perfect Yankee twist in this drama was the timing of Girardi's rotation announcement. Why did he name CC to start Game 4 before Game 3 was played? Why not wait? If the Yanks lost Game 3, then, sure, they might have needed such extreme measures. Then you're suddenly an underdog. Then shortening up your rotation is an act of sensible desperation. Why fall behind three games to one with Gaudin pitching when Sabathia says he's ready to go? But the Yankees didn't lose Game 3. They won. But they had opened their mouths prematurely and were stuck with the goofy rotation that now haunts them. Girardi's own explanation is telling. He said the Yankees didn't want to wait until after Game 3 to announce Sabathia because, if they did, somebody might "think something crazy was going on." Like panic? So, to make sure nobody thought they were panicking if they lost, the Yankees made a preemptive strike: They panicked before the game and removed all doubt. The Yankees never like to think about losing. We all find it uncomfortable. That's why the very phrase "lose the right way" goes against the grain. The Yanks like to take the whole concept off the table, often with big checks in February. But baseball isn't that easy. The Yanks would have done better to ask themselves, "If we play the last four games of the Series with short-rest starters -- when we are already ahead and don't have to -- isn't that the definition of 'losing the wrong way.' " Be glad they didn't or this Series might be over now. Instead, it feels like it has really just begun. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.244.125.33

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