Re: [新聞] Yankees may try to offer Lackey deal …
※ 引述《leddy (耿秋)》之銘言:
: ※ 引述《cardfat ( )》之銘言:
: : 噗 鐵齒不信酒鬼現在換勇士來打臉了
: : 再估計一下好了
: : 10 11 12
: : WAR 1.75 1.75 1.75
: : 薪資 3M 4.5M 6M
: : 7.875M 7.875M 7.875M <---雖然今年FA好像跌價 但是還沒統計出來今年1WAR
: : 多少$ 暫時還是用4.5M好了
: Projection這麼棒嗎?
: WAR還真好用?
: 來個Chone projection無聊算個2010 WAR
: 暫時用了不起的"4.5M"來算好了
: 2010年
: WAR
: Melky 'HOFer' Cabrera 2.3 (10.5M) HOFer果然是HOFer價
: Shelly Duncan 1.3 ( 5.9M) 簽我就好了簽什麼鬆緊
: Hideki Matsui 0.6 ( 2.7M) 原來我騙到了6.5M
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/freeagent2010.htm
Matsui, Hideki WAR 1.4 耶
Duncan Sample Size有問題耶
Melky都打多久了還看不出來喔
最近有個正尻的議題
Gardner will be more valuable than Jason Bay in 2010.
拿來PTT又有梗了
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 59.104.146.19
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你那個可能是調過park的
Matsui R150 PA
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/freeagent2010.htm
12 485
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/LAA2010.htm
13 485
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※ 編輯: cardfat 來自: 59.104.146.19 (12/23 15:56)
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看了以後你根本搞錯了
Matsui跑到天使球場變0.6WAR的DH玩笑開大了
最好天使球場的替代等級就不用變喔 (噗)
Most of the columns are self explanatory. The R150 column is linear weights
runs per 150 games, or 625 plate appearances. This figure is based on what
the player projection would have looked like in a neutral park and league,
not on the projected stats for the park they are playing in.
直接看算法
http://apps.baseballprojection.com/Blog/?e=40316&d=
11/23/2009&s=Value%20of%20Chone%20Figgins
I have him as a +4 runs per season hitter, with a rate stat line of
276/375/367. His baserunning has been worth 5-7 runs per year from 2005 to
2008. Baseball Prospectus has him at another +4 runs for 2009. The average
is about +5.5 per year, given age I'll estimate +4 for 2010. His defense,
according to Fangraphs UZR, has been excellent the last 2 years as a 3rd
baseman. A projection puts him about a +5 fielder. Replacement level is 20
runs below average per 150 games.
Add it all up, and he's 35 runs per year above replacement per 150 games.
Since I have him projected to play 137 (he's had some injuries here and
there) that gets knocked down to 3.2 wins. On a 1 year deal and 4.4 million
per win, that is worth 14 million.
Chone Figgins
4(打)+4(跑)+5(守)+20(替代等級)+2.5/162*150(3B)=35.3
換成137場 ==> 35.3/150*132=31
1 year deal and 4.4 million ==>14M
其實後面還有複數年的有興趣再看下去吧
回到Mastui換了球場R150才差1影響很小的 (13or12)
13(打)-1(跑:平均4.6 Matsui 3.8)+0 (守 DH=0)-15/162*150(DH)+20(替代等級)
13-1+0-13.9+20=18.1 (150場625PA) Matsui實際是projections PA 485
18.1/625*485=14.056
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※ 編輯: cardfat 來自: 61.59.235.35 (12/23 19:27)
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要調Park ok阿
你調了酷斯拉的成績
替代等級怎麼能不調
難道替代等級球員對天使球場魔法免疫喔
而且減少的話也不會10runs為1win
會變8~9.x分耶
多麻煩的
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沒救了
是沒看到這句喔
Replacement level is 20 runs below average per 150 games.
守位是POS
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/freeagent2010.htm
3B是2.5 DH是-15
fangraphs用的也差不多
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-four
the expected value of a replacement level player is about negative 20 runs
per 600 PA
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/explaining-win-values-part-three
Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
※ 編輯: cardfat 來自: 61.59.235.35 (12/23 20:50)
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6年前
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