PTT體育區 / NY-Yankees

Re: [新聞] Yankees may try to offer Lackey deal …

看板NY-Yankees作者 ( )時間15年前 (2009/12/23 15:35), 編輯推噓-1(12推 13噓 21→)
留言46則, 23人參與, 5年前最新討論串24/29 (看更多)
※ 引述《leddy (耿秋)》之銘言： : ※ 引述《cardfat ( )》之銘言： : : 噗 鐵齒不信酒鬼現在換勇士來打臉了 : : 再估計一下好了 : : 10 11 12 : : WAR 1.75 1.75 1.75 : : 薪資 3M 4.5M 6M : : 7.875M 7.875M 7.875M <---雖然今年FA好像跌價 但是還沒統計出來今年1WAR : : 多少$ 暫時還是用4.5M好了 : Projection這麼棒嗎? : WAR還真好用? : 來個Chone projection無聊算個2010 WAR : 暫時用了不起的"4.5M"來算好了 : 2010年 : WAR : Melky 'HOFer' Cabrera 2.3 (10.5M) HOFer果然是HOFer價 : Shelly Duncan 1.3 ( 5.9M) 簽我就好了簽什麼鬆緊 : Hideki Matsui 0.6 ( 2.7M) 原來我騙到了6.5M http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/freeagent2010.htm Matsui, Hideki WAR 1.4 耶 Duncan Sample Size有問題耶 Melky都打多久了還看不出來喔 最近有個正尻的議題 Gardner will be more valuable than Jason Bay in 2010. 拿來PTT又有梗了 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 59.104.146.19
推
12/23 15:40, , 1F
就說是Chone Projection...眼鏡沒帶嗎...
12/23 15:40, 1F
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12/23 15:41, , 2F
12月18日都update了...還在用舊資料
12/23 15:41, 2F
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12/23 15:41, , 3F
揪咪^.<
12/23 15:41, 3F
推
12/23 15:42, , 5F
WAR4.5M正尻!!
12/23 15:42, 5F
推
12/23 15:44, , 6F
為什麼是正"尻" XDD
12/23 15:44, 6F
推
12/23 15:47, , 7F
勇士不是要跟棒子 雪莉<-->麥肯 再搶一次好了
12/23 15:47, 7F
推
12/23 15:48, , 8F
反串文看多也很累.............還是你是認真的!!!??
12/23 15:48, 8F
推
12/23 15:53, , 9F
....
12/23 15:53, 9F
※ 編輯: cardfat 來自: 59.104.146.19 (12/23 15:56)
推
12/23 16:00, , 10F
所以你的結論是猴子簽完後松井從WAR 1.4下降成0.6...
12/23 16:00, 10F
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12/23 16:01, , 11F
你0.6怎麼來的阿
12/23 16:01, 11F
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12/23 16:01, , 12F
身價馬上從6.3M掉到剩下2.7M嗎? 黃金法則"4.5M"真好用...
12/23 16:01, 12F
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12/23 16:01, , 13F
用算的...
12/23 16:01, 13F
推
12/23 16:02, , 14F
沒了條紋聖衣 WAR下降完全是可以預期的
12/23 16:02, 14F
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12/23 16:02, , 15F
不會算的話我可教你...不用花4.5M...
12/23 16:02, 15F
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12/23 16:06, , 16F
教一下
12/23 16:06, 16F
推
12/23 16:07, , 17F
把excel打開...研究一下WAR的公式套進去...WAR就出來了...
12/23 16:07, 17F
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12/23 16:13, , 18F
算了晚點在看 我覺得你虎爛成份很大
12/23 16:13, 18F
推
12/23 16:15, , 19F
光你說唬爛這句可能要花"4.5M", 去研究wOBA, WAA是什麼?
12/23 16:15, 19F
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12/23 16:16, , 20F
Base Running Value, Position Value又是什麼...
12/23 16:16, 20F
看了以後你根本搞錯了 Matsui跑到天使球場變0.6WAR的DH玩笑開大了 最好天使球場的替代等級就不用變喔 (噗) Most of the columns are self explanatory. The R150 column is linear weights runs per 150 games, or 625 plate appearances. This figure is based on what the player projection would have looked like in a neutral park and league, not on the projected stats for the park they are playing in. 直接看算法 http://apps.baseballprojection.com/Blog/?e=40316&d= 11/23/2009&s=Value%20of%20Chone%20Figgins I have him as a +4 runs per season hitter, with a rate stat line of 276/375/367. His baserunning has been worth 5-7 runs per year from 2005 to 2008. Baseball Prospectus has him at another +4 runs for 2009. The average is about +5.5 per year, given age I'll estimate +4 for 2010. His defense, according to Fangraphs UZR, has been excellent the last 2 years as a 3rd baseman. A projection puts him about a +5 fielder. Replacement level is 20 runs below average per 150 games. Add it all up, and he's 35 runs per year above replacement per 150 games. Since I have him projected to play 137 (he's had some injuries here and there) that gets knocked down to 3.2 wins. On a 1 year deal and 4.4 million per win, that is worth 14 million. Chone Figgins 4(打)+4(跑)+5(守)+20(替代等級)+2.5/162*150(3B)=35.3 換成137場 ==> 35.3/150*132=31 1 year deal and 4.4 million ==>14M 其實後面還有複數年的有興趣再看下去吧 回到Mastui換了球場R150才差1影響很小的 (13or12) 13(打)-1(跑:平均4.6 Matsui 3.8)+0 (守 DH=0)-15/162*150(DH)+20(替代等級) 13-1+0-13.9+20=18.1 (150場625PA) Matsui實際是projections PA 485 18.1/625*485=14.056
噓
12/23 16:16, , 21F
跟他客氣什麼啊??搞不清楚就說人虎爛然後澇跑 XD
12/23 16:16, 21F
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12/23 16:16, , 22F
無知就是沒去計算就說人唬爛..還硬推個4.5M計算法則...
12/23 16:16, 22F
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12/23 16:18, , 23F
光看他來來去去就只會4.5M就讓人想笑了 XD
12/23 16:18, 23F
噓
12/23 16:21, , 24F
斷句看得好痛苦
12/23 16:21, 24F
噓
12/23 16:58, , 25F
"算了晚點在看 我覺得你虎爛成份很大" ?!
12/23 16:58, 25F
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12/23 17:00, , 26F
正"尻"是什麼阿?....你自創新詞?
12/23 17:00, 26F
噓
12/23 17:39, , 27F
12/23 17:39, 27F
噓
12/23 17:40, , 28F
先教你那個字是夯 然後噓你沒料還說人唬爛
12/23 17:40, 28F
噓
12/23 17:47, , 29F
小尻正夯
12/23 17:47, 29F
噓
12/23 18:02, , 30F
掰嚕
12/23 18:02, 30F
噓
12/23 18:06, , 31F
我夯你的尻
12/23 18:06, 31F
※ 編輯: cardfat 來自: 61.59.235.35 (12/23 19:27)
噓
12/23 19:01, , 32F
小麦ちゃんのお尻這系列我超愛的......XDD
12/23 19:01, 32F
噓
12/23 19:35, , 33F
最好WAR是這樣算啦...柯柯...
12/23 19:35, 33F
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12/23 19:38, , 34F
你天使球場的替代等級怎麼設的阿 科科
12/23 19:38, 34F
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12/23 19:40, , 35F
酷斯拉超慘的換個球場就變0.6WAR了
12/23 19:40, 35F
推
12/23 20:03, , 36F
chone projection都給你數字了...你不是很愛project war
12/23 20:03, 36F
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12/23 20:05, , 37F
wOBA 只有0.344的DH你算給看會等於..WAR 1.4
12/23 20:05, 37F
要調Park ok阿 你調了酷斯拉的成績 替代等級怎麼能不調 難道替代等級球員對天使球場魔法免疫喔 而且減少的話也不會10runs為1win 會變8~9.x分耶 多麻煩的
噓
12/23 20:24, , 38F
柯柯天使球場的替代等級...你還真會創造數字...
12/23 20:24, 38F
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12/23 20:25, , 39F
那個明明是守備位置的替代數字...
12/23 20:25, 39F
沒救了 是沒看到這句喔 Replacement level is 20 runs below average per 150 games. 守位是POS http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/freeagent2010.htm 3B是2.5 DH是-15 fangraphs用的也差不多 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-four the expected value of a replacement level player is about negative 20 runs per 600 PA http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/explaining-win-values-part-three Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games) First Base: -12.5 runs Second Base: +2.5 runs Third Base: +2.5 runs Shortstop: +7.5 runs Left Field: -7.5 runs Center Field: +2.5 runs Right Field: -7.5 runs Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs ※ 編輯: cardfat 來自: 61.59.235.35 (12/23 20:50)
推
12/23 20:55, , 40F
天使球場替代等級...Please define it! Please!!
12/23 20:55, 40F
噓
12/23 20:57, , 41F
哈哈哈哈
12/23 20:57, 41F
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12/23 20:59, , 42F
喔～～～～喔喔～～～喔喔～～～基基～～
12/23 20:59, 42F
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12/24 00:09, , 43F
北佬就是有你這種球迷才讓人更討厭
12/24 00:09, 43F
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12/24 00:45, , 44F
我現在才知道連球場都有替代等級 replacement level park
12/24 00:45, 44F
噓
12/24 14:44, , 45F
哀
12/24 14:44, 45F
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12/28 13:47, 5年前 , 46F
就說是Chone Pr https://muxiv.com
12/28 13:47, 46F
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