Rating the rotation

看板Nationals作者VaROne (沒聽到《傳奇》)時間15年前 (2010/03/02 00:03)推噓8(8推 0噓 4→)

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http://natsinsider.blogspot.com/2010/02/rating-rotation.html 還沒翻完，先來睏 February 28, 2010 Posted by Mark Zuckerman VIERA, Fla. -- For all the progress they made this winter in bolstering their lineup, overhauling their bullpen and improving their defense, the Nationals know it won't mean a thing if they don't get better starting pitching in 2010 than they got in 2009. A unit that boasted only one guy with more than five wins (John Lannan) and one guy with more than 106 innings pitched (Lannan, again) needs to perform better if this club is going to approach respectability after two straight 100-loss seasons. There's good reason to believe things will be better this time around. Lannan has another year of experience. The reliable Jason Marquis has been added to the mix. Scott Olsen appears to be healthy again, or close to it. Chien-Ming Wang and Stephen Strasburg should join the club sometime during the season's first half. If all goes as the Nationals hope, this could have the makings of a legitimate rotation by midseason. But as we sit here today, five weeks until Roy Halladay and the Phillies arrive at Nationals Park, this remains the Nats' biggest question mark. Can Lannan take the next step? Will Marquis be a steadying influence on the young arms? Will Wang's shoulder hold up and allow him to recapture his form from 2006-07 with the Yankees? Can Olsen not only stay healthy but also pitch to his abilities? Will Strasburg be the real deal? And will any of the other younger starters step up and seize this opportunity? All of these will continue to be question marks throughout the rest of spring training, but it seems appropriate at this juncture to begin a weekly look at the state of the rotation, an update of where things stand and what needs to happen between now and April 5. So let's run through all of the contenders for starting jobs, ranked from the guy most likely to be on the Opening Day roster to the guy least likely to make it to D.C. ... 1. JOHN LANNAN -- The rock of the Nats' rotation, Lannan will either start Opening Day or stand right behind Marquis as the club's No. 2 starter. No matter what position he holds, the 25-year-old lefty has already established himself as a capable major-league pitcher. Now it's time for him to take the next step, to start pitching deeper into games, to stop making that one mistake that often costs him victory and to flip-flop his 9-13 record from last season. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 100 percent. 1. JOHN LANNAN -- 國民隊輪值的基石，將會是開幕戰先發或在 Marquis 後的二號投手。不管處在哪一號位置上，這位25歲的左投已經建立合格大聯盟投手名聲。現在是該更進一步的時候，將局數吃的更深一點，以免下場後火牛陣上來搗亂，搞得去年只有9勝13敗。名列開幕戰名單機率：100% 2. JASON MARQUIS -- Like Lannan, Marquis is a lock to make the squad. It's just a matter of which title he holds: Ace or No. 2 starter. The 31-year-old righty is by no means a typical ace, and he probably shouldn't be more than a No. 3 or No. 4 starter on a good club. But on this team, he's a much-needed, reliable starter who will churn out innings and more often than not give his team a chance to win. That said, Marquis does need to be careful not to let certain innings or starts get out of hand, keep his ERA in the low-4.00s and keep his body healthy. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 100 percent. 2. JASON MARQUIS -- 如同 Lannan，Marquis 名字已經被寫在開幕戰名單中。差別在於是王牌還是二號。這位31歲的老將不像標準的王牌，在別支強隊了不起是第三、四號投手。可是不好意思，在國民隊 Marquis 變得非常重要，因為它能吃掉大量的投球局數，提高球隊贏球機率。(That said, Marquis does need to be careful not to let certain innings or starts get out of hand, keep his ERA in the low-4.00s and keep his body healthy. 這段我看不懂) 名列開幕戰名單機率：100% 3. LIVAN HERNANDEZ -- Unemployed a week ago, Hernandez now appears a safe bet to be in D.C. come April. He may be in camp on a minor-league contract, but it would take something out of the ordinary -- the emergence of several young starters, an injury -- for him not to earn a spot on the roster. Like Marquis, he's never going to be more than a middle- to back-of-the-rotation guy. But on this team, he'll provide a bunch of sorely needed innings until Wang and The Phenom arrive. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 75 percent. 3. LIVAN HERNANDEZ -- 原本一星期前 Hernandez 還是位失業人士，國民隊用小聯盟合約替自己買了一份保險。所以一旦有新秀竄起或受傷，Livo 可能就會消失在正選名單中。就像 Marquis 一樣，Hernandez 不出輪值中後半段。可他是華盛頓最需要的工作馬，能提供許多出局數直到小王和天才小史歸隊。名列開幕戰名單機率：75% 4. SCOTT OLSEN -- Pretty much everyone of consequence in the Nats' front office really wants Olsen to make the rotation. They want his shoulder to be 100 percent healthy, and they want him to return to the form he displayed in Florida before getting traded prior to last season. But the results so far have been mixed and the lefty admits he's still getting his feel back on the mound. There's still plenty of time in camp, but the Nats need to be reasonably sure Olsen is A-OK by mid-March or else risk paying his entire $1 million salary whether he's healthy or not. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 50 percent. 4. SCOTT OLSEN -- 在國民隊 front office 心目中，Olsen 一直是輪值中的一員，他們希望 Olsen 肩膀能恢復健康，回到在馬大魚時巔峰。可事總與願違，這位左投坦承他正在回到大道的路途中。目前國民隊還有些時間，他們必須在3月中確認 Olsen 狀態，來決定是否冒險吃下一百萬的合約。名列開幕戰名單機率：50% 5. GARRETT MOCK -- There may not be a pitcher in camp receiving more praise than Mock. (Well, aside from Strasburg, of course.) Seriously, though, I've heard several team officials rave about Mock's stuff and his potential to be a big-time starter. His performance in actual big-league games, however, has been less-than-inspiring to this point. It's time for Mock to learn how to use his superb stuff and perform like a real pitcher. If the season began today, it looks like he'd get his chance to do just that. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 40 percent. 5. GARRETT MOCK --在春訓營裡沒有任何一位投手得到超過 Mock 的褒獎。(當然，史寶哥是例外) 甚至可以認真地說，有許多他隊高層看好 Mock 天賦與實力，有機會成為當代強投。然而轉過頭去看真實成績，就只能讓人搖頭嘆氣。對 Mock 來說，現在該是時候用實力展現出相匹配成績。假如球季從今天開打，他應該是有機會。名列開幕戰名單機率：40% 6. CRAIG STAMMEN -- Stammen's name has come up a lot as a potential relief candidate, but to be honest, I just don't see any available spots in an already-crowded bullpen. To me, he either makes it as a starter or he opens the year starting at Syracuse. He does have the best track record among the young guys in the mix, having thrown 105 2/3 innings as a rookie and coming through with several impressive outings. But you also have to wonder if we already seen the best he's got, and whether any actual improvement is likely. If Olsen isn't healthy or Mock isn't consistent, Stammen seems like the next logical choice. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 30 percent. 6. CRAIG STAMMEN -- Stammen 名字好幾次被提到在後援名單裡。假如 Olsen 傷勢未癒或 Mock 沒準備好，Stammen 將會是下一個選擇。名列開幕戰名單機率：30% 7. MATT CHICO -- Like Mock, Chico has been receiving some impressive reviews from coaches and team officials this spring. Fully healthy at last following his summer 2008 Tommy John surgery, the left-hander is throwing the ball harder than he ever did pre-injury and seems confident in his ability again. He's out of options, so the Nats would risk losing him on waivers if he doesn't make the club. But the guess here is that he could slip through unclaimed because it's been so long since he was last seen on a big-league mound. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 20 percent. 7. MATT CHICO -- 如同 Mock，Chico 收到教練團及球團高層許多好評。在2008年開完 Tommy John 手術復原後，這位左投球路變得更強勁，而且看起來更有自信。由於 Chico 已經用完選擇權，如果開季沒搭上末班車，國民得冒著失去它的風險。當然其他球隊也有可能放棄挑選他的權力，畢竟 Chico 已經缺席一年多了。名列開幕戰名單機率：20% 8. J.D. MARTIN -- Team officials like Martin's simple approach to pitching, and they like that he held his own in 15 starts last season. But even more than Stammen, he may have already shown the best he's got. Martin also is already 27 years old, and his prospect status has just about run out. It wouldn't be impossible for him to sneak his way into the mix, but it would probably require several other developments out of his control to make it happen. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 20 percent. 8. J.D. MARTIN -- 球隊高層很喜歡 Martin 簡單的投球方式(投給他打)，如同上個球季15場先發展現出來樣子。可 Martin 不是 Stammen，他已經年滿27歲，不再是個潛力新秀，實力很難有所突破。除非天公疼憨人，讓 Martin 更上一層樓，不然注定只有陪榜的份。名列開幕戰名單機率：20% 9. MIGUEL BATISTA -- A couple of weeks ago, I would have guessed he'd crack the Opening Day roster as the No. 4 starter. But then the Nats signed Wang and (more importantly) Hernandez, and all of a sudden Batista is an afterthought in camp. He'll get a chance to start Friday against the Braves, but it's probably going to take a head-turning performance in that outing to keep himself in the running. You've got to think Livo will take his spot in the rotation the next time around. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 15 percent. 9. MIGUEL BATISTA -- 在兩週之前，我還可能預測 Batista 成為開季第4號先發。但在國民隊與王建民(主要原因)及 Hernandez簽約後，這似乎變得遙遠而不可及。星期五 Batista 將領銜對上勇士隊，這純粹是讓各個競爭者輪流上場表演。沒意外， Livo 會取得下一輪的先發。名列開幕戰名單機率：15% 10. COLLIN BALESTER -- He's an incredibly visible presence around camp, what with his god-awful moustache and quirky Twitter updates. But he doesn't seem to get much attention for anything having to do with baseball. Sounds like he's headed back to Syracuse again. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 10 percent. 10. COLLIN BALESTER -- 名列開幕戰名單機率：10% 11. SHAIRON MARTIS -- Remember when this guy was 5-0 and the hottest sensation in the Nationals' rotation? Yeah, that was only 10 months ago. How quickly we forget. Martis is pretty much a non-factor in this camp, notably only for the excess weight he appears to have put on since we last saw him. Chance of making Opening Day rotation: 5 percent. 11. SHAIRON MARTIS --還記得嗎? 去年是誰開季投出5勝0敗，超殺的成績。這不過是短短10個月以前的事，而我們卻都忘光了。Martis 現在變得像看不見的靈魂般，唯一令人觀注就是他球季後胖了幾十磅的體重。名列開幕戰名單機率：5% OTHERS -- Stephen Strasburg will absolutely be part of the Nats' 2010 rotation, but in June, not April. ... Chien-Ming Wang could be a major addition if he returns strong from his shoulder rehab program, perhaps sometime in May. ... Ross Detwiler figured to have a great shot at cracking the starting five before camp opened, but hip surgery will sideline him until May or June, and there may not be an open spot for him by then. ... Shawn Estes is a nice guy. A really nice guy who won't be pitching in Washington. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 124.9.142.195 ※ 編輯: VaROne 來自: 124.9.142.195 (03/02 00:04)