[外電] How to limit Strasburg's innings
How to limit Stephen Strasburg's innings
http://0rz.tw/oxOYQ
By David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
下面提到某人的部分如果看了不滿意請去找Schoenfield,別來戰我
Entering Thursday's start against the Pirates,
Stephen Strasburg has made six starts and pitched 38 innings.
He's 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA, has the highest fastball velocity
among starters in the major leagues, throws strikes and
is on the short list of the best pitchers in baseball.
在週四對上海盜之前小史已經先發6次並吃了38局,
2-0 ERA 1.66
小史能利用聯盟投手中最剛猛的速球不斷攻擊好球帶,
也在少數幾個最優秀投手之中名列前茅.
Of course, he's reportedly on a 160-inning limit
in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery.
At his current rate of 6.3 innings per start,
he'll reach 160 innings in his 26th start.
That means shutting him down in late August and
missing his final six or seven starts.
當然大家都知道小史在TJ後的首個完整年有160局限制.
目前他每次登板平均吃6 1/3局,
這樣將會在第26次先發用光他的配額.
這表示小史八月底必須強迫關機,也將錯過最後6或7次先發.
The problem, of course, is that the Nationals
are a good bet to still be in a heated NL East pennant race
in late August. How do you tell your season-ticket holders and
your fans that you're shutting down your best player?
That you're decreasing your chances of winning? You can't do it.
Isn't the goal to win? It's easy for GM Mike Rizzo to say
in March or April that the club wants to limit Strasburg's workload;
it's a different story if the team is a game out of
first place on Sept. 15.
如果說有什麼問題的話,那也要建立在八月底國民仍保持競爭力.
屆時要怎麼向球迷與持有季票的觀眾交代你最好的球員必須離開投手丘?
即使如此依然能增加贏球的機會?顯然無理.
勝利難道不是球隊競逐的目標嗎?
當三或四月時GM Rizzo可以很簡單地告訴我們小史的運作極限,
但球隊在九月中若已被踢下分區首位時又是另一個故事了.
But it's certainly understandable why the team wants to play it
as safe as possible, although I'm not sure there's evidence that
pitching 160 innings is any "safer" than 180 or 200 or 220.
That's another topic. For now, let's stick to the thesis that
Strasburg should pitch 160 innings. Here's my idea of how to do it
while still keeping him available down the stretch.
很容易理解為何球隊要如此小心翼翼,
雖然我不確定有任何證據顯示160這個數字比180,200甚至220"更安全".
這是另一個問題.目前就先把論點擺在這160局.
以下是我的意見,關於如何把小史擺在先發名單直到最後.
When Chien-Ming Wang returns from the DL
(he made his fourth rehab start on Wednesday night),
use Wang as a spot starter of sorts. The Nationals have indicated
they don't want to do this, that they'd prefer to keep Strasburg
pitching every fifth game.
There are two options here: You could simply sub in Wang
for Strasburg from time to time, say one start per month.
Or you could use Wang to push Strasburg back
a day or two every so often.
當Wang離開DL(Wang於週三晚上進行他的第四次復健賽),
把Wang用作可以支援少量先發的投手.
球團已經說過他們不想這樣幹,
他們寧願讓小史每五天固定登板.
有兩個選項可供選擇:
有時可以讓Wang當備用投手代替小史先發,例如每月1次.
或者偶爾利用Wang把小史的休息天數往後延一或兩天.
For example, if Strasburg pitches every fifth game,
he'd be scheduled to go May 15 (Padres), May 20 (Orioles) and
May 25 (Braves). If you gave Wang the May 20 start against Baltimore,
you could push Strasburg back to May 21 or May 22,
when the Nationals play division rival Philadelphia.
Or instead of having Strasburg face the Mets on June 7,
use Wang and push Strasburg back a day
to face a much tougher Red Sox lineup.
If done in the right fashion, you could actually exploit Strasburg
to make sure he faces tougher opponents or more division games.
舉例來說假設小史每五天上場,
他接下來的賽程將是5/15(教士),5/20(金鶯),5/25(勇士).
如果把王擺在5/20對金鶯,
就可以把小史的先發延到5/21或5/22面對費城人.
或者將6/7對大都會的先發換成Wang,
把小史保留到隔天對付打線更難纏的紅襪.
若是使用方式正確,
就可以確保由小史去對抗更強的對手或分區競爭者.
You need a flexible manager, but you can manipulate a six-man rotation
like this fairly easily. You could still keep veterans Gio Gonzalez
and Edwin Jackson pitching every fifth day,
while using Wang to save innings with young arms Stephen Strasburg,
Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler. The risk is that the starters
wouldn't keep the same routine or have the same number of rest days
between starts, but the possible reward is that your rotation
would be less fatigued heading into September. And remember,
Strasburg, Zimmermann and Detwiler have never
come close to 180 innings, let alone 200, in a season.
Strasburg isn't the only starter where innings could be an issue.
你需要一個想法靈活的教頭,當然擺上六人輪值更公平而簡單.
你還是可以讓老手Gio與E-JAX每五天登板投球,
再由Wang去負責小史,Zimmermann與型男等年輕手臂該吃沒吃的局數.
風險是選手沒辦法維持正常輪值時的調整方式,
回報則是輪值更有可能以較不疲累的狀態進入九月.
還有別忘了,小史,Zimmermann與型男都沒單季接近180局過,更別說200.
小史並不是唯一一個在局數限制上有討論空間的先發投手.
OK, maybe you don't want to jump starts around like that.
Too complicated. You can still push Strasburg deeper
into the season pretty easily.
For example, sticking to the every-fifth-game rule,
you could skip the following starts:
May 15 (Padres)
July 5 (Giants, final start before All-Star break)
好吧.也許你不想讓輪值玩跳跳,太複雜了.
還是有些簡單方法讓小史的球季走久一點.
例如維持投一休四.
然後跳過這些比賽:
5/15(教士)
7/ 5(巨人,明星賽前最後一次先發)
Make him the fifth starter coming out of the break,
meaning he doesn't start again until July 17,
and then skip these starts:
Aug. 7 (Astros)
Sept. 4 (Cubs)
Sept. 21 (Brewers)
明星賽後把他放到五號,
直到7/17前都不讓他再出賽.
再跳過下面幾次先發:
8/ 7(太空人)
9/ 4(小熊)
9/21(釀酒人)
That would give him 20 more starts, on top of the six
he's already made, heading into the final series of the season ...
against the Phillies. If the Nats need him,
they could stretch him to a 27th start.
This way, they'd keep him active through September,
and thanks to the long break around the All-Star Game,
they'd have to "skip" him only four times.
這樣安排除了他已經有過的6次先發以外,
還能繼續出場20次以上;
直到球季最後一個系列賽...對手費城人.
如果球隊需要,還是可以擠出第27次先發.
依照這種使用方式,到九月底為止小史都還不必關機.
另外感謝明星賽期間的長休,
球隊只需要跳過他4次先發.
And if the Nationals make the playoffs ... well ...
you have to go for it, right?
接著如果國民有機會進入季後賽...總是值得冒險,對吧.
==============================================================================
David Schoenfield的論點基礎建立在不變更roster,
所以Wang會歸隊但暫時不會回到五號,Lannan留在3A.
作者的第一種方法,
讓小史視情況調整休息天數以面對更強的對手.
Wang則在小史原先預定的出賽日頂替登板.
或者以六人輪值打完球季,
Wang去幫忙吃年輕手臂沒吃完的局數.
優點是大家平均分攤可能出現的傷痛風險,
缺點是無法規律維持休息天數與調整進度.
第二種方法就比較簡單.
維持小史投一休四,選擇性延長休息天數,
儘量以最小變動去調整輪值.
作者選出幾個跳過先發的日期看來是有刻意挑對手.
例如跳過5/15對教士,
面對5/21開始連續三個系列賽(都是對上同區球隊).
後續的幾個略過日也都差不多情況,
除了明星賽前後刻意拉大休息時間以外.
小史去投分區對手的確對球隊比較有利.
至於小史的略過日應該還是交給Wang(或Lannan?)去負責.
整篇其實就是在看要如何以160局為限制的最高原則下,
由小史去對付強隊/分區競爭者.
因為國民第一個月的表現讓球迷看到希望,
而必須在最後一個月把王牌冰起來所造成的傷害(不管對戰績...或票房)
顯然是球隊與球迷都承擔不起的.
--
抓狂的FANBOY有多可怕 真的是遇過才知道
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.133.12.197
※ 編輯: vg175 來自: 220.133.12.197 (05/11 20:59)
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