[外電] DON'T NATIONALS WANT TO PAY TO PLAY?

看板Nationals作者vg175 (非典型廢言)時間11年前 (2014/12/17 20:11)推噓6(6推 0噓 8→)

留言14則, 7人參與討論串1/1

DON'T NATIONALS WANT TO PAY TO PLAY? http://ppt.cc/l0sb Ken Rothansel Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann and shortstop Ian Desmond will combine to earn $27.5 million next season. That is probably about the average annual value it will take to land free-agent right-hander Max Scherzer. If that is the Nats' plan -- trade Zimmermann and Desmond for younger parts, then sign Scherzer -- pretty much everyone would understand. 國民右投JZ與游擊Desi明年合計領走27.5M，這也許是FA大物右投Scherzer的個人年均。如果這就是國民的計畫，交易JZ與Desi然後簽下Scherzer，似乎大家都可以理解。 But is that the Nats' plan? 但這真的是國民的計畫嗎？ They certainly appear ready to enact Phase 1, dangling Zimmermann and Desmond in trade talks. Whether they are shopping them or merely listening to offers is unimportant. The real question is whether the Nats are trying to re-allocate resources or reduce payroll. And the answer will reveal much about the intentions of their owner, Ted Lerner. 他們的確準備好啟動第一回合，丟出JZ與Desi的交易話題；不管他們打算來真的或只想聽包裹都不重要。真正問題在國民究竟打算要注資或減資，而答案將隨著老闆Ted Lerner的意向漸趨明顯。 The Nats indeed are open to moving Zimmermann and Desmond, perhaps even in the same deal. They recently engaged in multiple conversations about both players with the Mariners, according to major-league sources. One of the many ideas the Nats proposed was Zimmermann and Desmond for right-hander Taijuan Walker and shortstop Brad Miller, sources said. 國民的確開放交易JZ與Desi，即使兩人包在一起。根據匿名消息指出國民與水手有過數次對話；許多想法的其中一種，是將JZ與Desi一起打包交換右投台灣走路與游擊Brad Miller。 The Mariners balked, unwilling to absorb $27.5 million in salary when they still need to find a right fielder for next season. They also did not want to yield five years of control on Miller and six on Walker while potentially getting both Zimmermann and Desmond for only one year, sources said. 但被打槍了。還在尋找右外野手的水手不願硬吃27.5M，還得放棄能控制六年的台灣走路與五年的Brad Miller，只為了僅能用一年的JZ以及Desi。 The Nationals also had conversations about Zimmermann with the Red Sox and other clubs, again targeting premium young talent, according to sources. Zimmermann’s $16.5 million salary, though, almost certainly would limit the return. Which returns us to the original question: What exactly is the Nats' plan? 國民也與紅襪跟其他球團談到JZ，一樣瞄準優質年輕選手。然而JZ那16.5M的年薪幾乎確定將限制國民能收到的回報。這又將我們帶回最原始的問題：國民的計畫究竟是什麼？ Here they are, poised to enter the 2015 season with perhaps the most talent in the National League. Yet they keep talking about trading Zimmermann and Desmond . Perhaps they believe that they could win the relatively tame NL East even if they went with younger, cheaper replacements. But that would be a heck of a risk -- and, frankly, a rather arrogant viewpoint. 即將進入2015年的國民也許擁有全NL最高天賦，然而他們也持續討論交易JZ與Desi。也許是相信就算用更年輕便宜的替代品還是能征服平凡無奇的分區。但這依然存在大把風險，或者更坦白說，有些過於自負。 More likely, the Nats' approach is financially driven. Zimmermann and Desmond are entering their free-agent years, as are right-hander Doug Fister, center fielder Denard Span and reliever Tyler Clippard. That's an unusually large group, and no one should expect the Nats to keep them all. 更進一步看國民的策略乃財政考量。JZ跟Desi都進入FA年，還包括右投Fister，中外野手Span，右手牛Clippard；這數量超乎尋常，沒人應該期待國民能留住所有人。 What's more, the Nats last season had a club-record Opening Day payroll of $136.8 million, ninth in the majors. This season, through existing contracts and arbitration cases, they are looking at nearly $150 million in commitments. That is hardly a trivial number, but last we checked, the Nat aren't the low-revenue Athletics, needing to constantly turn over their roster. Not even close. 再說了，上季開幕日國民payroll已經是破隊史紀錄的136.8M，全MLB排第九；今年透過合約與仲裁更可能上看150M。很難說這是普通的數字。但我們也知道國民不是收入少需要不斷更動roster的運動家，差得遠了。 So, what gives? 那麼，是怎麼回事？ The Nats should be proud of what they have assembled, and especially proud of Zimmermann and Desmond, two homegrown stars. True, both have rejected multiple offers to sign long-term, perhaps convincing the Nats they are destined to hit the open market. But even then, why not keep them and take a shot, with a team that is built to win now? 國民該為他們所擁有的感到光榮，特別是JZ與Desi這兩個homegrown stars。沒錯，他們都回絕過好幾張複數年合約，也許這令國民相信他們打算進入FA。不過就算如此，為何不在球隊處於win now模式時將他們留在陣中拼一拼？ In the best-case scenario, Zimmermann and Desmond would perform at their usual high levels and help the Nats get to the World Series; ownership then could pick and choose which potential free agents it wanted to retain. 最好的劇本是JZ與Desi維持他們一貫的高等級表現幫助國民拿下WS，出錢的屆時再來考慮要留誰要放誰。 The worst-case scenario could produce a couple of outcomes, neither of which is so bad. 最糟的劇本將來自兩種結果，但每一種都爛透了。 If, for some reason, the Nats underachieved, they could spin Zimmermann, Desmond and others before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. 如果因為某些原因國民被踢出競爭行列，他們能在731前弄走JZ，Desi與其他人。 If Zimmermann and/or Desmond got injured or performed at a subpar level, the Nats would stand a better chance of re-signing them, all while gaining a better idea of what younger players such as right-hander Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Bryce Harper are worth. 如果JZ與／或Desi受傷或低潮，國民更有機會重簽他們。也更有利於將資源分配給更年輕的選手，像小史或Harper。 Oh, there is one other possibility, one that would make the players and fans happy and give the team the best possible chance of sustaining long-term success. 噢，還有另一種能讓球員與粉絲大家都開心的可能，球隊維持長期成功的機會也最高。 Pay Zimmermann and/or Desmond what they deserve. JZ與Desi值多少就給他們多少。 Yes, it will cost money -- a lot of money, more than $125 million each, according to the estimate of one agent who is not affiliated with either player . Such is life when teams develop stars; payrolls escalate through salary arbitration, and then long-term commitments. The Nats might not like it, but they darned well should understand it. And they should be ready to take the next step. 沒錯，這很花錢。而且是一大筆錢。根據一位與此事無關的經紀人估計這兩個身價都超過125M。當你養出一個star，這就是人生。薪資仲裁會加速payroll增長，然後還有長約要給。國民不會喜歡這種狀況但當然也了解，而他們也該準備好走下一歩。 Desmond, 29, is 14.0 wins above replacement the past three seasons, the highest of any shortstop, according to the Fangraphs version of WAR (fWAR). In the past three free-agent classes, Robinson Cano (19.0), Josh Hamilton (16.6) and Jacoby Ellsbury (16.3) were the only free-agent position players with higher three-year WARs. 29歲的Desi根據FG過去三季擁有14.0WAR（fWAR），這段時間內FA市場中的position players只有Cano（19.0）， Hammy（16.6）與Ells（16.3）比他更高。 Of that group, Ellsbury received the lowest average annual salary - $21.85 million. Hanley Ramirez since has scored a $22 million average, mostly because of his offensive ability. Well, Desmond is only the fifth shortstop to win three consecutive Silver Sluggers, joining Cal Ripken Jr., Barry Larkin, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. Unlike Ramirez, he actually can play short. He also is far more durable and a far superior leader. Ask anyone close to the team — Desmond is perhaps the most important voice in the Nats' clubhouse. 這群人裡Ells的年均21.85M最低，Hanley雖有22M年均但泰半源自於他的打擊能力。 Desi連續拿下三季銀棒獎，史上只有四人曾達到這個里程碑； Desi加入Larkin，鐵人，Jeter與A-Rod成為第五人。與Hanley不同，Desi確實可以防守游擊，更穩定也更具領導者風範。去問問看球隊關係者誰是休息室裡最重要的發聲筒，八成都選Desi。 Zimmermann, 28, not only is the Nationals' true ace -- over Fister, over Strasburg -- but also grades out, minimally, as one of the 10 or 12 best pitchers in the game. Over the past three seasons, only Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto, Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez rated higher than Zimmermann in ERA-plus -- that is, ERA adjusted to a pitcher's league and ballpark. 29歲的JZ不只是優於小史或Fister的國民true ace，更可以說至少是聯盟最好的前十或12位投手之一。過去三季只有書僮，Cueto，Sale，國王四人的ERA+好過JZ。 ERA+乃根據聯盟與球場做過修正的數據。 Zimmermann also is 10th in baseball-reference.com's version of WAR over that period and 12th in fWAR. He cannot match Jon Lester's postseason accomplishments, but his overall resume dwarfs Homer Bailey’s. Lester got $155 million for six years as a free agent, Bailey $105 million over six in a non-free agent deal. Zimmermann, on the open market, would be closer to Lester -- and still well below Scherzer. BR版WAR統計JZ的WAR在過去三季排名第十，FG版WAR則排12。他無法比肩Lester的季後賽成就，但總體成績也能讓Homer Bailey相形見拙。 Lester從FA市場撈到6y/155M，還在球團控制下的Bailey則簽6y/105M。進入FA的JZ會更接近Lester，不過依然遠低於Scherzer。 So, are the Nats willing to pay or not? 那麼國民到底有沒有打算掏錢？ Only once have they spent big in free agency, giving outfielder Jayson Werth a seven-year, $126 million contract after the 2010 season. The team also awarded third baseman Ryan Zimmerman a six-year, $100 million deal in February 2012, but that contract was not top of the market; Zimmerman signed it coming off an injury-marred season and accepted $10 million in a personal-services deal that will start after his playing career is over. 他們只在FA花過一次大錢：2010年季後給Werth一紙7y/126M。 2012年二月球隊也給Zim一張6y/100M的合約，但這張不是頂級約。因為Zim是在受傷痛所擾的球季過後簽下，而球員生涯結束後也能透過personal-services得到10M。 The Nats are fighting with the Orioles over their television rights fees. They just settled a dispute with Harper about whether he should be eligible for arbitration, according to The Washington Post. Such issues aside, Lerner remains one of the wealthiest owners in baseball, and the franchise is incredibly valuable. 國民還在跟金鶯打TV權利金大戰。根據華盛頓郵報，仲裁庭將與Harper的合約爭議同時開庭。先撇過這些不談，Lerner依舊是棒球界最富有的老闆之一，這支球隊也擁有非常驚人的價值。 This is no time to retool. Not with a team this good. 既然球隊還這麼棒，又何必現在就retool？ Rothansel這篇發表時Harper的合約還沒搞定 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.34.47.100 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Nationals/M.1418818287.A.45C.html ※ 編輯: vg175 (1.34.47.100), 12/17/2014 20:12:10

推

Werth

12/17 20:48, , 1^F

12/17 20:48, 1^F

推

ps20012001

12/17 21:27, , 2^F

12/17 21:27, 2^F

→

ps20012001

12/17 21:28, , 3^F

12/17 21:28, 3^F