[情報] Keith Law版百大新秀(國民部分)

看板Nationals作者vg175 (非典型廢言)時間10年前 (2015/02/02 19:36)推噓5(5推 0噓 7→)

留言12則, 5人參與討論串1/1

被選進Keith Law版2015百大新秀內的國民農場成員： 8 Lucas Giolito, RHP AGE: 20 DOB: 7/14/94 B/T: R/R HT: 6-6 WT: 255 W-L: 10-2 ERA: 2.20 IP: 98 SO: 110 BB: 28 One year after his return from Tommy John surgery, Giolito was on the mound at the Futures Game in Minneapolis, giving up a homer on a hanging curveball but otherwise looking outstanding for someone only about 23 months off the operation. His 2014 season was remarkable on its own, but even more so given the context of his injury and missed time, and when you consider that he hasn't even been allowed to use his two-seam fastball and is still developing his changeup, you can see why there seems to be no limit on how good he can ultimately be. 從TJ回歸一年後，Giolito 在位於明尼亞波里斯所舉辦的未來之星賽中登板；雖然一顆曲球被扛出大牆，但其它部分對一個術後僅過約23個月的選手來說都十分傑出。他的2014球季表現相當了不起，從他因傷所損失的時間來看更難能可貴。若是考慮到他還在培養他的變速球，甚至還沒被允許使用他的二縫線速球，你就可以了解為何他看起來幾乎好到沒有極限。 Giolito looks the part of a future ace, a 6-foot-6, 255-pound workhorse who'll sit 94-96 mph and can go get 98, getting good leverage from his height and working on sitting in the lower third of the zone with the pitch. He gets great angle and depth on the plus curveball, 79-83 and unhittable unless he hangs it (which he did in the Futures Game). His changeup is in the low 80s and he's continuing to throw it more, all but shelving his curveball in his last few starts of 2014 because he wanted to develop the change. When he reaches Double- A, he'll be able to restore his two-seamer and become a true four-pitch guy. Giolito looks like a 220-inning, sub-3 ERA guy in the making, and he should be ready to see the majors at some point in late 2016, which gives the Nationals a lot to consider when looking at the impending free agents in their currently loaded big-league rotation. Giolito擁有成為未來王牌的能力，六呎六吋255磅的工作馬身材，球速落在94 -96也能達標98。平衡活用身高條件，能將進壘點壓在九宮格下方位置。速度 79-83 的plus曲球變化角度與進壘深度都相當棒。除非球沒掉下來（就像未來之星賽那顆）否則根本打不到。變速球球速在low-80s ，他還在持續增加使用頻率。2014年最後幾次先發甚至封印曲球只為了訓練這顆變速球。當他上到2A ，他就能取回二縫線使用權並成為真正的四球種投手。Giolito 像是正朝年吃 220局、ERA 低於3的方向前進，他應該準備好於2016年球季後段上大聯盟見見世面。這也會讓目前輪值爆棚的國民在旗下先發相繼進入自由市場後有更多思考空間。 63 Joe Ross, RHP AGE: 21 DOB: 5/21/93 B/T: R/R HT: 6-4 WT: 205 W-L: 10-6 ERA: 3.92 IP: 121.2 SO: 106 BB: 29 Ross, the younger brother of Padres pitcher Tyson, had a mediocre 2013 season after missing much of 2012 with a sore shoulder, as neither his stuff nor command was consistent and his performance was disappointing. Last year he moved up to a tougher environment for pitchers, and everything ticked up, resulting in a late-season promotion to Double-A and his inclusion in the big, three-team trade that sent Wil Myers to San Diego. Ross will hit 97 mph but is most comfortable at 92-94 with good two-seam tailing life, the latter the result of a slightly lower arm slot the Padres hoped would take some pressure off his shoulder as well. He always has had excellent feel for a changeup, but the lower slot also gave him more tilt on his slider, an above-average to plus pitch, whereas he'd previously been caught between a slider and a curve. Joe Ross是教士投手Tyson Ross的弟弟。2012年因肩傷錯失掉許多上場時間， 2013年表現平庸令人失望，不管stuff或command都無法保持一致。去年升到更不利於投手的環境後一切都開始運轉，最後他成為Wil Myers 大型三方交易案的一份子。Ross能投到97，但最舒適的速度在92-94 。二縫線很有尾勁，教士希望他稍微壓低手臂以減輕對肩膀的負擔也發揮出效果。他的變速球球感一直很棒，壓低出手點的改變也幫他的滑球製造更多斜切。滑球有平均以上至plus 等級，而過去他還沒穩定投滑球前這顆滑曲球時往往會被打者鎖定造成傷害。 Hitters find Ross' stuff hard to square up, and he's a slight ground ball pitcher. He's a good athlete and competitor who throws strikes, although his control is still ahead of his command. I thought he had a chance to be a No. 2 starter before his shoulder barked, and there's probably less of a chance now that he evolves into a 200-inning starter, but he could be a very effective No. 3 who throws 180 or so innings in peak years. 打者很難對Ross的stuff 做好攻擊準備，他也是稍微偏滾地球的投手。他是個優秀的運動員，能積極投出好球，雖然他的command還追不上control。我想肩膀出問題前他有機會成為二號，現在他進化成年吃200 局的可能性越來越小。但他還是能成為生涯巔峰時年吃180局左右，相當有效率的三號． 71 Michael Taylor, CF AGE: 23 DOB: 3/26/91 B/T: R/R HT: 6-3 WT: 210 AVG: .304 OBP: .390 OPS: .915 HR: 23 SB: 37 To their credit, the Nationals never lost faith in Taylor, not when he couldn't crack a .320 OBP until he was 22, not when he had to repeat high-A that year and still punched out 131 times. The former high school shortstop took to center field pretty quickly, but it took him a few years to fill out and grow into some power, with the help of a lot of work from the Nats' player development staff. Taylor's posture at the plate is better now, and he's better able to power through the baseball with significant torque from quick hip rotation. He hit 24 homers in 127 games across three levels last year, and he still could add some strength to his frame, although that might cost him some of his plus speed. 國民從未失去對Taylor的信心。不只是因為到22歲前他的上壘率都不及.320，不只是因為他重打一年高階1A還被K掉131次，值得鼓勵。這位前高中游擊轉守中外野後適應速度相當快，但他花了幾年與國民球員培養部門一起下過不少苦工才充實好自己並養出一些power 。Taylor的打擊姿勢比以往更好，他更能運用臀部作軸心迅速轉動以將power施放到來球上。去年三個階層共127場比賽敲出24轟。他依然能追加更多力量，雖然代價可能是犧牲一些他的plus speed。 He has made a lot of progress at the plate, but it's all come fairly slowly, and given his contact issues and how quickly he gets the bat through the zone, I wouldn't be surprised if he took a year or two of major league at-bats to start posting adequate OBPs. He's a 70 defender in center and can impact the game with power and speed, with a chance to be a grade-60 regular in the majors once he gets 1,000 at-bats or so under his belt. 他也在看管好球帶上做了不少努力，但還是不夠理想。再考量到他有contact 方面的問題，與超快的揮棒速度，如果他得在大聯盟花上一兩年才能讓上壘率勉強過關我也不意外。他在中外野防守有70分，也能靠power與speed衝擊比賽。一旦在大聯盟得到1000個打數左右的磨練，他就有機會成為一個成功的60分先發選手。 75 Reynaldo Lopez, RHP AGE: 21 DOB: 1/4/94 B/T: R/R HT: 6-0 WT: 185 W-L: 7-3 ERA: 1.08 IP: 83.1 SO: 70 BB: 26 Lopez was throwing just 87-90 mph when he first signed for a pittance as an 18- year-old amateur in 2012, but his velocity picked up rapidly once the Nationals got a hold of him, to the point where they had to shut him down for nearly all of 2013 to keep him healthy. He stayed on the mound for all of 2014, and his talent exploded: He'd reach 100 mph in many starts, wouldn't throw a pitch under 94 and would show a 60 or 70 grade curveball as long as he could stay at the top of his release point. Lopez had been a more lateral front-side guy, but the Nats raised his front side when he was with Auburn this summer so he could get on top of that breaking ball and generate more plane on the fastball, producing more ground balls and more consistent strikes as well. He gets good action on his nascent changeup but lacks feel for the pitch because he has barely used it. 2012年18歲的Lopez在簽下低薪苦力約時速度只有87-90，但他的球速爬升得十分迅速。2013年國民為了健康將他強制關機，2014年他全年無休，也讓你見識到他的天賦。多次先發都曾飆到三位數，球速從未低過94，以及只要能將放球點維持在頂端就能展現60或70分的曲球。過去的Lopez 站姿趨近於用身體側邊面對打擊區，但去年夏天在Auburn時國民要他更用身體正面面對打者，這樣不但能讓他的變化球更具威力，也能使速球產生更多垂直位移，以製造更大量的滾地球與更能持續攻擊好球帶。他的變速球還處於初期但球的變化很不錯，不過因為幾乎沒在用所以欠缺球感。 After he returned to Hagerstown from Auburn in late July, he allowed one run in 39 innings, on a solo homer, punching out 34 guys against 23 total baserunners, with that homer being the only extra-base hit he surrendered. His ceiling is second only to Lucas Giolito among Nationals' starter prospects, and the main hurdle for him to get there is to build up the stamina to be a 30-start guy. 七月底從Auburn回歸Hagerstown後，39局中只因陽春砲丟掉一分，三振34人次，只讓23個跑者上過壘。那支陽春砲也是唯一一支長打。很遺憾他的天花板只能排第二，因為國民裡的第一先發農作物是Lucas Giolito ，而對他來說摸到天花板的主要阻礙是如何建立先發30場比賽的耐力。同場加映： https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rwy6eyrTHEU

去年7/28 1A South Atlantic League一場Greenville vs. Hagerstown的比賽，林子偉對上Reynaldo Lopez。這也是Lopez回到Hagerstown後首次登板。 88 Trea Turner, SS AGE: 21 DOB: 6/30/93 B/T: L/R HT: 6-1 WT: 175 AVG: .323 OBP: .406 OPS: .854 HR: 5 SB: 23 Turner is technically still a Padre, because MLB is operating under a Dark Ages rule that prohibits teams from trading drafted players for a full year after they sign their first pro contracts, a rule that conflicts with the way a "player to be named" can be traded up to six months after the deal is completed . So now Turner gets to spend spring training and the first two months or so of 2015 playing for an organization that no longer has any stake in his future, and that's both wrong and dangerous. 因為MLB 食古不化的腦袋阻止球隊交易選秀簽約後未滿一年的球員，故此技術上Turner依然隸屬教士。球隊只好用"player to be named"這種方式抵抗，六個月後這個交易才會正式完成。現在Turner得參加一個不把自己視為未來藍圖的球隊的春訓，甚至是兩個月左右的2015正規球季。這不但錯誤而且危險。 Turner himself is in an awful spot, because he's a good prospect who needs work in specific areas to become an above-average regular at shortstop. Turner身在一個糟糕的處境，因為他需要在明確環境下努力以成為平均以上先發游擊的優秀新秀。 He's a plus runner with the speed to stay at short but needs help on footwork to be able to make plays that require him to move well out of position and to be able to throw accurately from any spot. He has the bat speed to catch up to a good fastball but wraps his bat behind his head and can be a tick late getting the bat head into the zone. He could end up an average or slightly better defensive shortstop who hits .280-.300 with 40 steals a year, as long as he gets into an organization that is fully invested in his development. 他是個plus runner ，這樣的速度能幫助他站穩游擊區，但他需要更多腳步功夫以好好處理遠離站位的來球，還有在任何位置都能準確傳球。他將球棒整個擺到頭部後方，一邊計算節拍直到最後才將棒頭劃過打擊區，這樣的出棒速度能幫他逮住優質速球。一旦投入一個能全力輔助他的成長的組織，他最終就能成為繳出.280-.300打擊率與單季40盜，守備平均或稍微高過平均的游擊手。 98 A.J. Cole, RHP AGE: 23 DOB: 1/5/92 B/T: R/R HT: 6-5 WT: 200 W-L: 13-3 ERA: 3.16 IP: 134 SO: 111 BB: 32 Is there a worse place to be as a prospect than to be a starting pitcher at the top of Washington's farm system? All Tanner Roark did last year was post a 2.85 ERA in 198 2/3 innings, and he's expected to be out of the Nats' rotation. Cole could probably be someone's fifth starter now, certainly by midyear, but at the moment he's as blocked as any pitching prospect in baseball. Cole's results haven't quite matched his stuff -- the whole is less than the sum of the parts -- but both his slider and changeup have come a long way in the past 18 months, to the point where he looks like a true four-pitch pitcher who has the control to be at least a fourth starter. He works at 93-97 but still doesn't locate it that well within the zone; he could get all the way up to a No. 2 starter if he improves his fastball command and pitches more aggressively. He has also found a consistent arm slot that works for both his curveball, his main out pitch in high school, and his slider, which helps keep hitters from identifying pitches too easily. 就一個新秀來說，還會有什麼是比身為華盛頓農場系統先發投手更糟糕的嗎？ Tanner Roark 去年在198.2局中有2.85 ERA，今年卻被預期擠不進國民輪值。現在的Cole也許能成為某隊的五號，至少季中沒問題。但當前他就跟任何被卡位的投手新秀一樣沒表現空間。Cole的養成結果與他的stuff 並不相襯，不該只是如此而已。但他的滑球跟變速球在過去18個月取得很大的進展。就這點來看他至少是個有control的貨真價實四球種四號先發。他的球速有93-97但沒辦法好好控進理想的點，如果可以改進速球command 並表現得更具侵略性，他可以上看二號。他也能用一致的揮臂動作投出滑球與高中時的招牌絕殺曲球，這能使打者沒那麼容易分辨他所使用的球種。 Another half-season or so in Triple-A would probably help him, as he'll face a lot of hitters who have major league experience and will force him to work on his weaknesses. Once he gives up a little less hard contact, he'll be ready for someone to call him up, even if it takes a trade for that to happen. 在3A花上另外半季左右的時間也許對他有幫助，因為他將面對許多有大聯盟經驗的打者，這會逼使他改善自己的弱點。一旦他能稍微不讓自己的球被打得那麼強勁，他就會準備好任何人的徵召，即便那得透過交易才會發生。 Top 10 prospects 1. Lucas Giolito, RHP 2. Joe Ross, RHP 3. Michael Taylor, CF 4. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP 5. Trea Turner, SS 6. A.J. Cole, RHP 7. Wilmer Difo, 2B 8. Pedro Severino, C 9. Erick Fedde, RHP 10. Jakson Reetz, C Organization Ranking: 9 Overview This is the strongest the Nationals' system has been in some time, at least since Bryce Harper graduated from their list, thanks to some opportunistic drafting, a very productive pipeline from Latin America and the trade of Steven Souza that netted the Nats two of their top prospects. They might not need a starter any time soon, but seven potential major league starters are on their way, including the five listed above, sinkerballer Austin Voth (11) and Canadian Nick Pivetta (12), who can reach 96 mph but needs more consistency with both the breaking ball and the change. Cole might end up in the bullpen out of need, although Jefry Rodriguez (13) is probably their best relief prospect. A converted shortstop who can hit 98 with a power curveball, Rodriguez suffered a hairline fracture in his non-throwing wrist and only threw 33 innings last year. 這可能是Bryce Harper畢業後國民農場系統最強盛的一年，得感謝某些機會主義取向的選秀方針，從拉美輸入頗具成效與透過Steven Souza交易案補進兩個頂級新秀。他們近期或許不再需要任何先發投手，已經有七個擁有大聯盟先發潛能的球員蓄勢待發，包括十大新秀裡的五個，與伸卡投手Austin Voth （排名11），以及能飆到96但變化球跟變速球表現得更一致的加拿大仔Nick Pivetta （排名12）。Cole或許最終會在牛棚缺人時上去頂，但Jefry Rodriguez （排名13）可能才是他們最好的中繼新秀。從游擊手轉換跑道的右投Rodriguez 能飆到98也有強力大曲，去年因近身強襲球擊中左手腕導致僅出賽33局。 The fallen Brian Goodwin has All-Star tools, yet he has struggled for two years to put everything together and perform at a level that would point toward a future as an everyday player. He's even stopped stealing bases, and what once looked like a potential power/speed centerfielder is now maybe an up-and-down outfielder. Brian Goodwin身懷全明星級tools，不過兩年來始終掙扎於無法將一切整合起來，也不讓人覺得他有未來天天先發上場的本錢。而他甚至已經沒在盜壘。那個過去看起來有power/speed 潛能的中外野手，現在或許已經只是個起伏不定隨處可見的普通外野手了。 Sleeper Last year's sleeper, Severino, probably is still the best choice here (or possibly Difo, who was old for the Sally League last year but has a lot of above-average to plus tools. Severino is a wizard behind the plate, a plus framer with good blocking skills and a 70 or 80 arm who's growing into his body . He started to show some progress at the plate in the second half (.301/.376/. 466) last summer. Down the road a bit further, remember the name Victor Robles, the Nats' star prospect from their Dominican Summer League team last year; he's a center fielder who has 6s and 7s all over his scouting report, with a plus arm, above-average to plus run, excellent bat speed, and the kind of fast- twitch body scouts love to see. 去年的sleeper，Severino也許仍是最佳候選人（或者Difo，待在Sally League 年紀已嫌稍長不過有許多平均以上至plus的tools）。Severino 是個蹲捕魔術師，移手套騙好球的能力屬plus，擁有優秀的擋球技巧與70或80分的臂力，身體也還在繼續成長。去年下半季開始展現攻擊能力（.301/.376/.466）。另一個還更遠一點的名字可以先記得：Victor Robles 。出身國民多明尼加夏季聯盟的明星級新秀中外野手，幾乎所有球探報告給他的整體評分都是6或7字頭。他有plus臂力，平均以上至plus的跑速，傑出的出棒速度，與球探們都很愛，收縮靈活快速的肌肉。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.34.47.100 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Nationals/M.1422877000.A.A9F.html