[情報] Fangraphs版國民2015新秀榜 PART.3
Reetz was a high-profile prospect on the showcase circuit as a standout talent
from Nebraska that had everyday catcher tools, hit well at nearly every event,
was into the low-90′s on the mound and was a three sport star in high school.
His body got heavier late in the summer and his swing path got more uphill, but
he fixed both during the spring, a time when scouts had trouble evaluating
Reetz against poor Nebraska prep competition.
Reetz 還在內布拉斯加打巡迴賽時他就是高評價、擁有傑出天分的新秀。他有先發捕手
的tools，幾乎每次出場都能繳出不錯的打擊成績；當他站上投手丘也能投到low-90s，
高中時期的他更是三棲運動明星。夏季尾聲體重增加揮棒軌跡也偏高，但隔年春天馬上
調整回來。由於內布拉斯加的比賽水準不夠高，當時球探們也很難評估Reetz。
Reetz flashed average speed at times over the summer but has lost a tick since
then. He has the tools to stick behind the plate with an above average arm,
lots of energy and a grinder mentality. Reetz has advanced bat control and
solid average raw power, so if he can keep his swing in order, there’s real
upside here. Catchers typically take longer to develop and are less predictable
but Reetz has the indicators you like to see.
夏天時Reetz 還能表現average speed但之後就往下掉了一級。他有above average arm
與站穩捕手的tools ，一大堆能量跟穩定的心智；他掌控球棒的能力已經超越同級打者
，也有solid average raw power 。因此假如在每次站上打擊區時都能持續他的揮棒機
制真的還很有看頭。傳統上捕手需要更多培養時間，預測空間也小，但Reetz 擁有你希
望看到的任何東西。
12. Drew Ward, 3B :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_EO1e9VNsI
Ward had tons of buzz as a high school underclassman because he was so physical
for his class and showed above average left-handed power with good performances
at top events while playing shortstop. The problem is that he was very old for
his class: playing with the 2014 prep draft class and aged like an older 2013
kid. Once scouts realized what they were looking at, he became a more ordinary
prospects.
高中低年級的Ward就已經因為強壯肉體與above average的左打power受到矚目，他也能
在重要比賽裡把游擊位置守得很好。問題是就他待的層級而言他已經太老了。他跟2014
選秀梯的球員一起打球，但他的年紀卻更接近2013梯；一旦球探們了解他的狀況，他就
會變成一個更普通的新秀。
Given that he’s a big power hitter that physically matured quickly, he was
close to being a finished product (for an amateur) in his junior season of high
school, so he reclassified to enter the 2013 draft, where the Nats took him in
the 3rd round. He was always seen as a third baseman and, depending on how much
weight he added, eventually a first baseman. Ward has an above average arm and
his hands are fine, but he’s 6’4/210, still growing, has trouble staying low
on grounders and is a 35 runner, so first base seems inevitable.
基於肉體成熟迅速他是個 big power hitter，以業餘球員來看他在高中junior season
就很接近完成品，所以他決定直接進2013年選秀會而國民也在第三輪把他挑走。他看上
去永遠是個三壘手，但考量到增加的體重他最終會是一壘手。Ward擁有 above average
arm而手部動作也沒問題，但還在成長的他已經有六呎四吋210磅，這會讓他在壓低身體
處理滾地球時遭遇麻煩。他也只是個35分的runner，故此轉守一壘似乎將是無可避免。
Ward’s carrying tools are his bat and power and, competing at Low-A at 19, he
was finally facing his peers in 2014 and he performed well. Ward is a power
hitter so honing his approach to tap into his power without striking out too
much is an important adjustment. He’s also just now facing real competition
and dealing with failure after weak Oklahoma prep competition, so there’s
reason to expect growth. He has some feel for the strike zone and tapping into
his power in games and the tools are here for 55 hit and game power, which
he’ll need to profile everyday at first base.
Ward的主力武器是棒子跟power，2014年以19歲的年紀在Low-A出賽，他終於有機會挑戰
同齡對手也表現不錯。Ward是個power hitter，所以如何駕馭攻擊策略，在開發 power
的同時能避免被三振太多次將是重要調整課題。高中時期無敵手的他是到現在才面臨真
正的挑戰，包括如何面對失敗。也因此還有期待他繼續成長的理由。他對好球帶的感覺
不錯，正在把power開發到比賽裡。hit與game power都是55分，他會需要證明自己是能
夠天天上場先發的一壘手。
13. Austin Voth, RHP :
http://youtu.be/n55OYb8T248?t=1m29s
Voth is an advanced pitchability guy that was drafted in the 5th round from
Washington in 2013 and has limited physical projection left. He works with a
fringy fastball and solid average changeup, working in a curveball that he
doesn’t use enough but at times is above average. Voth threw a lot of innings
in college, so the Nats think with a more regular usage pattern in pro ball,
his velocity will climb from 88-90 to 91-93 and he has hit 95 mph before, so
that isn’t just wishful thinking. Voth will pitch in the upper levels in 2015
and if the stuff ticks up a bit, he could be a threat for the 2016 rotation,
with a better chance he settles as a #5 starter or swingman.
Voth是2013年第五輪被選進國民，擁有高等投球智慧，體格方面發展有限。他主要運用
的是普普fastball與solid average changeup，還在鍛鍊用得不夠多但偶爾也能 above
average的curveball。Voth讀大學時吃不少局數，是以國民認為可以在職業聯盟用更正
規的使用方式對待他。因為他過去也投到95，所以期待他能將球速從88-90升至91-93並
非一廂情願。2015年他會在更高層級出賽，如果stuff 能往上跳一點他就夠格搶2016年
輪值位置。他很有機會成為五號先發或能同時支援長中繼與先發的swingman。
14. Aaron Barrett, RHP :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rtlqyi8rHWk
Barrett is a reliever that just turned 27 and threw 40 innings in the big
leagues last year, but he still technically qualifies for the list. He’s close
to a finished product, performing well in his rookie year and the stuff is
setup caliber: 92-95, touching 96 mph with a 55 slider. Barrett uses the slider
a lot, tripling up on it at times and has no problem throwing strikes, but is
more of a control (BB rate) over command (K/BB rate) guy. His ceiling is as a
45 FV setup guy and relievers are notoriously volatile, so this feels like a
good spot for him, even though he’s a secure big league contributor. Also,
his linked video doesn’t include him pitching, but it’s pretty funny.
Barrett 是剛滿27歲且去年共在大聯盟投40局的牛棚投手，但技術上他仍能列入新秀名
單。已經接近完成品的他新人年表現不賴，也有標準佈局投手的stuff。球速92-95能達
到96，加上55分slider。Barrett 常投slider，有時連投三顆也能投進好球帶沒問題。
但他的control（保送率）還是高於command （三振保送比）。他的天花板是45 FV的佈
局投手而大家都知道中繼投手是不穩定的，所以即使你可以放心讓他在大聯盟上場投球
，把他放在 45 FV這個位置感覺還OK。還有他的影片裡雖然沒有他投球的樣子但真的非
常有趣。
15. Jefry Rodriguez, RHP :
http://youtu.be/2oBc5BIdhiI?t=31s
Rodriguez got lumped with Lopez as the talented young Latin arms in the system
at one point, until Lopez took off in the second half of 2015 and Rodriguez is
still more of a projection bet. He’s listed at 6’5/185 but both numbers are
on the conservative side and with his broad shoulders, you can be sure
Rodriguez will add more upper body strength. He was 20/21 in the 2014 season
and is a converted infielder, so it’s a pleasant surprise that he’s already
flashing starter traits and dominate at times. Rodriguez sits 92-96 and hits 97
mph with a curveball that’s above average at time and lots of plane, but the
changeup is below average. He’ll get his first taste of full-season ball in
2015 and has a huge ceiling.
在某個時間點農場裡的拉丁潛力投手中Rodriguez還壓過Lopez，直到Lopez 在2014年下
半季起飛（原文寫2015應是筆誤）。而Rodriguez 還沒讓人看見推測中應有的實力。身
材紀錄是六呎五吋 185磅，但兩種數字都算保守而且加上他厚實寬廣的肩膀你可以確定
Rodriguez 的身體會更強壯。2014年剛過21歲生日，過去是內野手，因此看到他已經展
現先發投手的特質並偶爾宰制比賽實在讓人驚艷。Rodriguez的球速在92-96，能達到97
；加上有時能above average的curveball也可帶來不少水平位移，但changeup則 below
average。2015年將首度嘗試挑戰完整球季而他也有巨大的天花板。
16. Felipe Rivero, LHP :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDL002UuZYU
Rivero was acquired with #23 on this list Vettleson and C Jose Lobaton last
year from Tampa Bay for RHP Nate Karns. Rivero still hasn’t had it all click
for him, but there’s #4 upside if he can make the delivery adjustments to
consistently command his pitches in the zone. The first time I watched him
pitch, I noticed Rivero’s glove hand dangling by his waist at release (the
same problem Taijuan Walker had), which will vary slightly pitch to pitch and
affect his timing and release point; this is something Washington acknowledged
they’re working on. As a starter, Rivero sits 91-95 and hits 97 mph with a
curveball and changeup that both flash 55 but are more often a consistent 50.
I’m betting he becomes a setup guy and even if he stays a starter, the Nats
rotation depth may push him to relief to get a big league opportunity.
去年Nate Karns的交易案裡，Rivero與新秀榜第23名的Vettleson跟捕手 Jose Lobaton
一起來到國民。Rivero擁有的天分不多，但只要他能調整出手動作使command 更一致就
可以上看四號先發。首次看他投球時我注意到當放球那一刻Rivero的手套懸在腰部旁邊
（Taijuan Walker也有相同毛病），這都會些微改變每次投球動作並影響他的節奏與放
球點。球團都了解並正在努力改善。作為一個先發Rivero可投91-95甚至97，curveball
與changeball都展現過55的實力但通常穩定運作在50。我賭他會變佈局投手，即使繼續
朝先發養成國民的輪值深度也會迫使他為了追求上大聯盟的機會而不得不轉換跑道。
17. Nick Pivetta, RHP :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufvWP3d0QVY
Pivetta was an arm strength 4th rounder out of a Juco in 2013 that showed some
idea of how to pitch, but has made strides in that area since signing. He sits
92-94 and hits 96 mph with a slider that’s slurvy but above average at times,
along with a curveball and changeup that are fringy. Pivetta has a durable
workhorse frame and low miles on his arm as a Canadian that’s become a legit
prospect in the last couple years. He’s a control over command guy that has a
chance to stick as a back-end starter if he can be more consistent; Pivetta
will head to High-A in 2015.
Pivetta 是個手臂有力的2013年第四輪新秀，來自Juco，當時就略懂如何投球但簽約後
大有長進。他的球速在92-94也可達到96，slider像slurvy不過偶爾能above average，
curveball跟changeup則勉勉強強。Pivetta擁有耐力工作馬型身材，而且就像過去幾年
來自加拿大的主力新秀那樣過去手臂工作量也不大。他的control優於command，如果能
表現得更穩定就有機會卡住輪值後段。2015年Pivetta將會前進High-A。
18. Victor Robles, CF:
Robles is one of the most exciting players in the system and his only
experience since signing for $225,000 on July 2, 2013, was this year in the DSL
and a limited stint in instructs this fall. He’ll head to the GCL next year
and could shoot up this list if the raw tools convert into performance, as
he’ll be aged like 2015 draft high school players. He raked at age 17 in the
DSL thanks to an advanced/patient approach, especially given his age and
background, average raw power, and plus bat speed, foot speed and arm strength.
Robles是農場中最令人興奮的球員之一。而自從他在2013/07/02被國民用225K簽下後唯
一的比賽經驗是去年在DSL跟秋天於指導聯盟的短暫出場，明年他將從GCL出發。若 raw
tools 能轉換到表現上他的新秀排名就能往上抬升，而他的年紀就像2015年即將投身選
秀的高中生一樣。17歲就能打好DSL 得歸功於高端且深具耐心的攻擊策略，特別是考量
到他年紀與背景。此外他也有average raw power、plus揮棒速度，腳步速度與臂力。
19. Matt Skole, 3B :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWVlnMwWsBE
Skole is less exciting than Robles because he’s already 25, missed most of the
2013 season with wrist/elbow surgery and is fringy at third base, so you’re
hoping for a lefty corner utility bat. He has above average raw power and is a
late-count hitter that can punish mistakes, but his swing can get uphill at
times and he can be too passive as well. He’ll head to Triple-A next year and
could be close to contributing, but is likely a true three outcomes corner
utility or platoon guy you’re always trying to upgrade.
已經25歲的Skole 就比較沒那麼令人興奮了。因為手腕手肘動刀錯過2013球季的大部分
時間，也只是個不怎麼樣的三壘手。因此你只能期待他是守內野角落的左打工具人。他
有 above average raw power，能磨好壞球也可以給犯錯的對手重擊，但揮棒時棒子偶
爾會拉太高同時也會出棒過度消極。他明年將前進3A也將更接近大聯盟，但似乎更可能
是true three outcomes的角落工具人或輪班球員，這些位置你總是想要想辦法升級。
（true three outcomes就是不用野手就能完成一個打席的三種方式：三振保送全壘打）
20. Sammy Solis, LHP :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ON-w49K9coM
Solis is another older prospects, as he’s already 26 and hasn’t been on the
mound much due to a number of arm injuries. In his medical, there’s
significant back and quad injuries, along with a 2012 Tommy John and a 2014
that was almost completely washed out due to soreness in the same elbow. Given
his age and injury history, you would assume the stuff is pretty good for him
to still be on the list and it is: 90-93, with some life, hitting 95 after TJ
and 97 before it, an inconsistent but solid average slider and an above average
changeup. Everything is in order health-wise for him to return to the upper
level and to the bigs, if he can stay healthy and the stuff is still there.
已滿26歲的Solis 是另一個老新秀，因為各種手傷導致至今都還不怎麼常出現在投手丘
上。他的病歷表上記載背與四頭肌都有嚴重傷勢，加上2012年的Tommy John跟2014年手
肘同樣位置又發生疼痛。就算他的年齡過大又有傷病史，你還是得假定他的stuff 真的
棒到依然能擠入這張名單。球速 90-93帶些尾勁，TJ前97就算開過TJ也摸到過95。不算
穩定但solid average 的slider，還有above average changeup。對他來說往更高階走
跟前進大聯盟的障礙就是健康，只要能保持健康他的stuff一直都在。
21. Rafael Bautista, CF :
http://youtu.be/1UVkg6rmKtw?t=38s
Bautista wasn’t hyped, signing in 2012 just before he turned 19 and hitting
well in the DSL, GCL and Sally League in his three pro seasons. He’s a plus-
plus runner that knows how to use his speed at the plate, on the bases and on
defense. There are some questions about his game power, bat speed and his feel
to hit in general, with one scout saying he could see Bautista turning into a
4th outfielder Jarrod Dyson type.
Bautista不怎麼受注意，2012年未滿19歲就與國民簽約也在DSL、GCL、Sally League等
三個聯盟打得不錯。他是plus-plus runner也知道怎麼在打擊、跑壘及防守時運用他的
速度。他的game power、揮棒速度與打擊的感覺仍受質疑，某位球探認為Bautista會成
為像Jarrod Dyson那樣的四號外野手。
22. Drew Vettleson, RF :
http://youtu.be/T80zEeb-pCs?t=26s
Vettleson was a sandwich rounder out of high school in 2010 as a right fielder
with an above average arm, average power and advanced feel to hit from the left
side. He performed well at the A-Ball levels for Tampa Bay in 2012 and 2013,
but had some trouble tapping into his raw power in games, opting for more of a
contact approach. In 2014 after being traded to the Nats, Vettleson really
struggled at Double-A in a half season, regressing in almost every statistical
category. It would appear to be a terrible sign for his potential platoon/low
end everyday projection, but Vettleson missed two months with a broken hand a
couple weeks into the season and never really got going. He looked back to
normal in instructs and could be in line for a bounce-back 2015 at Double-A.
Vettleson是2010年高中畢業的三明治選秀右外野手，有above average arm， average
power ，站在左打區也有高階球感。2012與2013年還在坦帕打1A時表現不賴，但無法好
好將raw power轉換到比賽裡；反之選擇contact作為攻擊策略。2014年交易到國民後在
2A總共打了半季左右卻相當掙扎，所有攻擊數據幾乎都全面退化。對預期只能輪班或只
是末端先發野手的他來說是相當糟糕的徵兆。但Vettleson 開季才打兩週就因為手傷休
息兩個月也一直沒能進入狀況，之後在指導聯盟表現看來是恢復正常。有希望於2015年
從2A開始觸底反彈。
23. Jake Johansen, RHP :
http://youtu.be/_2dqOIZi2Yk?t=2m9s
Johansen was a 2nd rounder in 2013 out of Dallas Baptist as a giant 6’6/235
power arm that showed occasional feel for secondary stuff and command. He’s
still mostly that guy now, sitting 93-95 and running it up to 99 mph in short
stints with a cutter that’s solid average and a fringy curveball that flashes
55. The changeup and command are still a work in progress and this is probably
a 7th/8th inning guy, but some think Johansen is still growing into his frame
and starter traits will come out in the next couple years.
Johansen是2013年第二輪來自Dallas Baptist的power arm，六呎六吋235磅的身材十分
巨大。當時就偶爾能對command與第二球種stuff展現球感，到現在還是差不多那樣。球
速93-95，少數時候會飆到99，有solid average cutter 跟有時55但通常只是堪用邊緣
的curveball。changeup與command還在磨練。他也可能只是負責七八局的佈局投手，但
還是有些人認為身體還在成長也擁有先發特性的Johansen未來幾年內還是能長出來。
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Nationals/M.1424220298.A.00F.html
※ 編輯: vg175 (1.34.47.100), 02/18/2015 08:45:40
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