[情報] Fangraphs版國民2015新秀榜 PART.1

看板Nationals作者vg175 (非典型廢言)時間10年前 (2015/02/17 08:25)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

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Evaluating the Prospects: Washington Nationals http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-washington-nationals/ by Kiley McDaniel - January 15, 2015 原文有六小段前言，不重要故略。 Big League Growth Assets 1. Anthony Rendon, 2B, Age 24, FV: 75 2. Bryce Harper, RF, Age 22, FV: 70 3. Wilson Ramos , C, Age 27, FV: 55 4. Blake Treinen, RHP, Age 26, FV: 45 5. Tyler Moore, 1B, Age 27, FV: 45 6. Taylor Jordan, RHP, Age 25, FV: 45 FV = Future Value http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/ The Overall Player Grade 這段落有FV對照選手等級的表單。 Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron The Nationals short-term outlook is extremely strong, with a strong roster and weak divisional competition making a 2015 postseason berth highly probable. They also boast multiple young franchise players, creating a core that should allow the Nationals to remain strong for years to come, provided they can find the money to sign them all to long-term contracts, anyway. 2015 will be the last hurrah for this particular group before free agency forces the team to find new role players, but if Mike Rizzo can keep stealing quality players from other organizations for little in return, the Nationals won’t have too many problems maintaining a strong roster for years to come. 基於強大roster與孱弱分區競爭，國民的短期前景非常強盛，前進2015季後賽的可能性也相當高，他們也以擁有數名年輕的明星核心球員自豪。這些球員能幫助國民持續強盛好些年，甚至國民可以找到財源來跟所有人都簽下長約。2015年是這群特殊成員最後的歡樂時光，接著自由市場一啟動球隊就得在數個位置上被迫得另尋出路。但假使Mike Rizzo 能持續從別的組織用以小換大的方式竊取優質球員，未來幾年間想繼續維持強大都不會有太多問題。 50+ FV Prospects 1. Lucas Giolito, RHP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQCDMj_YlJg

Current Level/Age: Low-A/20.5, 6’6/255, R/R Drafted: 16th overall (1st round) in 2012 out of California HS by WSH for $2.925 million bonus, Agency: CAA Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 60/70, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 45/50+ Scouting Report: Giolito was nationally know by scouts all the way back to when he hit 95 mph at age 15, so he was hyped as a potential high first rounder in the 2012 draft for years. He dominated over the summer and winter and was in the running to go 1-1 as one of the top prep pitchers of all-time, until he was shut down with a sprained UCL in his elbow. This led to an expected Tommy John surgery one outing after he signed for an $800,000 overslot bonus as the 16th overall pick, as the Nationals moved all-in to make Giolito most of their total 2012 draft expenditure. Scouting Report：自15歲飆出95英里fastball後Giolito 在球探界便無人不知無人不曉，數年間他也被當成超高潛能的2012首輪新秀大肆炒作。他徹底宰制夏季與冬季比賽，朝著狀元甚至史上最好的準大聯盟投手之一來前進，直到弄傷自己的韌帶被強制停機為止。掉到16順位的 Giolito 簽下比建議額度多出80萬美金的合約，說明國民真的把當時能花的大部分錢都梭在他身上了。可是最後終究躲不掉Tommy John，簽約後僅登板一場便被推進手術房。 That gamble paid off as Giolito was almost back to normal late in 2013 when he returned to throw 36.2 innings at two short-season levels. The stuff was all the way back this year as he dominated Low-A at age 19/20 in his first full year coming off of surgery. The Nationals were understandably conservative with pitch and innings counts in 2014, wanting to keep Giolito at the same level in a low stress environment so he wouldn’t go too deep in innings/games or be tempted to reach back for the 100 mph heater he’s thrown many times before. 2013年球季後段Giolito 回歸後幾乎恢復正常，在兩個短期聯盟共投36.2局，賭注回收得很成功。2014年完全拿回stuff ，術後首個完整球季橫跨19/20歲也徹底壓制Low-A。可以理解國民採取保守方式控制他的用球量與局數，希望讓他在相同層級的低壓力環境下投球，避免他單一場比賽吃太多局數或像之前那樣腦充血又開始飆三位數火球。 Giolito will work 93-96 and hit 98 mph regularly and his knockout curveball, which gets 65 or 70 grades from scouts is his signature off-speed pitch, giving him among the best two-pitch combos in the minors. His changeup is rapidly improving and flashes 60 for some scouts, but he doesn’t throw it much given his competition and his other two pitches. Giolito can throw his curveball for strikes or use it as a chase pitch, showing a surprising amount of feel for a young power pitcher coming off off TJ, when it normally take a couple years for command to come all the way back. He’s broadly built with some remaining projection and the delivery for at least average command, so every source I’ve talked to projects him as a starter without reservation and he could still get better. Giolito可以規律地運作在93-96甚至98，而能得到球探65/70好評的絕殺curve則是主要慢速球種，使他成為小聯盟中最好的二球種投手。他的changeup進步得很快，在某些球探眼中有60分實力；但基於比賽強度與另外兩種球種的壓制力，changeup的使用率並不高。Giolito 能把curve丟進好球帶或製造球棒追打，對一個剛從TJ後復出的年輕power pitcher能有這種球感實在令人驚訝；通常情況得花上兩年才能找回command。他還在跟著身體一起成長，出手動作也能看出他至少會有average的command。任何我交談過的對象都認為他無疑是個先發大將而他甚至還能變得更好。 Summation: Giolito will start in High-A this year and the reigns will be loosened, with higher IP/pitch limits and if he keeps performing the same way, there’s an expectation that he’ll get promoted to Double-A in 2015. The Nats have a slow early/fast late promotion tendency and they told me once he gets to Double-A, they’ll evaluate where he is and set an MLB timetable based on what he looks like there. If there appear to be no ill effects from the elbow surgery, he could be on the fast track with a solid start to 2015 and he has true #1 starter upside, but TJ is completely in the rear view just yet. Summation： Giolito 今年將從High-A開始也會放鬆身上的拘束器，如果表現得一樣好就能解鎖更多局數與用球數，預期今年會升上2A。國民有讓球員慢慢起步再於球季後段快速提升層級的傾向，他們也跟我說一旦他上2A就會評估狀況並根據表現設定升上大聯盟的時間表。如果手肘沒出現傷病問題，2015年就能以一個強大的起步快速前進。而他也足以上看真正的王牌，不過目前無疑還沒完全擺脫TJ疑慮。 FV/Role/Risk: 65, #2/3 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale) Projected Path: 2015: High-A/AA, 2016: AA/AAA/MLB, 2017: MLB 2. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJCkB1rnie0

Current Level/Age: Low-A/21.0, 6’0/185, R/R Signed: IFA at age 18 on June 21, 2012 out of Dominican Republic by WSH for $17,000 bonus Fastball: 65/75, Curveball: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 40/50 Scouting Report: Lopez signed with no fanfare, getting a $17,000 bonus at age 18 near the end of the 2012 signing period. He sat in the upper 80′s at the time, then his velo steadily climbed a tick each month until he hit the mid- 90′s in 2013. He only pitched a handful of innings in 2013 due to a sore arm, which is somewhat expected for a teenager whose climbing velocity is putting new stresses on his arm. Scouting Report：不蓋你，2012年底才18歲的Lopez當時簽約金真的只有17K。那時他的球速頂多接近90，接著每個月都像時鐘的指針一樣持續穩定往上跳，直到2013年已經可以飆到mid-90s 。當年因為手臂疼痛導致出賽局數不多，就想追求球速的年輕人來說施加新的壓力在手臂上會造成如此後果似乎也是可以預期。 Lopez got back on the mound in 2014 and took off, sitting 93-97 and hitting 100 mph on many occasions. He adds and subtracts from his fastball, showing surprising feel for a young power arm and his changeup and command both flash average to slightly above potential because of his advanced body control and feel for his delivery. The player development staff helped Lopez tweak his delivery for 2014, making him more direct to the plate and more downhill to leverage the ball better and cut out the east/west movement in his delivery. The result was more arm speed from the same slot, more plane, more life to his fastball, more grounders and all of that added up to make weak contact swings and misses. 2014年回到投手丘後就起飛了。球速落在93-97並多次在需要時上衝100。他能隨意增減速度，以一條年輕火臂而言相當令人驚豔。他的changeup與command都有average至稍微高過average 的潛能，因為他將身體控制得更好，出手的感覺也更棒。2014年球員培養部門的人員幫助Lopez 微調他的出手動作，要他用正面面對打擊區，使用高壓式投法對他也比用east/west movement更有利（east/west movement不知該怎麼翻較好，像巨怪這種就是：http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/Fig10.gif

）。結果就是一樣的出手點能帶來更多揮臂速度、位移、速球尾勁與更多滾地球，除此之外甚至還能追加製造毫無威脅性可言的contact與揮棒落空。 Lopez also tweaked the grip on his curveball and, in combination with this delivery adjustment, gave the pitch more of an 11-to-5 tilt that he confidently used to both sides of the plate. He shows advanced mound presence, easy to his delivery and has grown by leaps and bounds recently to the point that scouts are unsure what his ultimate upside is. There’s a lack of projection to his frame but he’s athletic and strong with very good feel for his delivery, so it’s almost a plus that he isn’t still growing into his frame and he may move quickly. Lopez也改變curve握法，再搭配上述的動作改變給予這顆球種更近似11-to-5 的變化軌跡。也更有信心把球控在本壘板的兩側。他在投手丘上大有長進，出手動作簡潔，現階段飛躍性的成長讓球探無法確定他的極限到底在哪。他的體型欠缺未來性，但他有運動能力、強壯也很有棒的出手感覺，對身體還在成長的他來說可以算是加分了；而他也能爬升得很快速。 Summation: Lopez is a hot name with scouts and multiple teams have asked about him in trades and without reservation gushed about him to me; this is a little uncommon for a player from a rival team without a lot of hype. He moved up a couple spots after every scout I talked to about him and, after emerging in the 2nd half of 2014, he may take another step forward in 2015 toward the top of overall prospect lists. Summation： Lopez 是球探間的熱門人物，引起數支球隊探詢交易可能，他們也毫無保留地向我表示對他的喜愛；一個對手球隊的人能這樣高度讚賞一位還不大受到矚目的新秀是有點不尋常的。我與所有球探談過他後便將他提升了幾個名次，他從2014年下半季開始嶄露頭角，也許2015年會更進一步直接衝上所有新秀排行榜第一的位置也說不定。 FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, High (4 on 1-5 scale) Projected Path: 2015: Low-A/High-A, 2016: High-A/AA, 2017: AA/AAA/MLB, 2018: MLB 3. Trea Turner, SS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJBti-5Vm7U

Current Level/Age: Lo-A/21.5, 6’1/175, R/R Drafted: 13th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of North Carolina State by SD for $2.9 million bonus, Agency: CAA Hit: 20/50, Raw Power: 40/40, Game Power: 20/40, Run: 70/70, Field: 50/55, Throw: 55/55 Note: As I tweeted after Turner’s name came up in the rumors around the Wil Myers trade, he became eligible to be traded on December 13th, which was exactly 6 months after he signed his draft contract on June 13th. A player-to- be-named-later can be in question for up to 6 months and a drafted player has to wait until one year after he signs his contract to be traded. Turner will play for the Padres organization until June 13th, 2015, then will be shipped to the Nationals. He’s technically Padres property, but I’ll list him here, since everyone knows he’s going to Washington and maybe soon if the MLBPA grievance speeds up the process. Note：就像我在Turner的名字浮現於Wil Myers 交易乳摸時推的那樣（http://ppt.cc/LPwO），他12/13便能合乎交易條件，就在他06/13簽下選秀約的整整六個月之後。接下來的六個月裡PTBNL 還是存在疑慮，而選秀會上被選走並簽約的球員得等上一年才能被交易。 Tuner將在教士組織待到2015/06/13 為止，接著才會被送去國民；技術上他隸屬教士但我會把他擺在這裡，反正大家都知道他會進入華盛頓，或許球員工會介入的話還能加快時程。 Scouting Report: Turner is polarizing but more because he hasn’t played much in pro ball and he had a bad draft year at North Carolina State. Scouts with history back to his underclass years with the Wolfpack (the above video is chronological and starts in his sophomore year and with Team USA later that summer) are more optimistic because they saw the good version of Turner and know that a mechanical adjustment can explain almost all of his offensive struggles. Scouting Report：各界對Turner看法分歧，多半是因為他職業比賽出賽還不夠多而且選秀年在北卡打得並不好。但球探回顧他在北卡的低年級表現後反而更正面樂觀，（上面網址包含他大二與同年夏天加入美國代表隊的影片）因為他們看到Turner好的一面，也知道能以調整打擊機制來解釋為何他的棒子會陷入掙扎。 Turner had a couple minor leg injuries and then spread his feet too far apart, probably to generate more power, which caused his base to be weak and collapse at contact, undermining his natural bat control. He made the adjustment weeks before the draft and everything seemed in order in pro ball. Turner taps into his raw power in games when he’s making hard contact and he could be an 8-12 homer guy at maturity, but that isn’t really a big part of his game, more of a perk when he’s making lots of contact. Turner有一些輕微腿傷，兩腳又撐得太開，也許是為了產生更多power 結果卻使下盤變得虛弱，contact 也整個崩潰，甚至侵蝕他對球棒的自然控制力。這個調整是從選秀前數週開始進行，看來似乎是為了職業比賽而做。只要Turner將raw power 開發成熟他就能靠猛烈的contact 敲8-12轟。但那些真的不是他在比賽裡需要關心的重點，那只能算製造一大堆contact之餘的外快而已。 With a full season in 2015 of solid performance, I would likely adjust Turner’s hit grade up at least one notch, as I’m already on the optimistic side right now versus scouts who only saw him struggle with Team USA and early in his draft spring. 只要2015年完整球季能拿出穩固的表現，我會將Turner的打擊評等往上提升至少一級；而我跟那些只看過他在代表隊與選秀年春季比賽中掙扎的球探們不同，我其實已經站在正面樂觀的那一邊了。 Turner was a late bloomer that was largely unscouted in high school until very late in his senior spring and he played third base his freshman year in college . He slid over to shortstop as a sophomore and eventually settled in to where his hands, instincts and actions are enough to be average at the position and his 55 arm is enough to make the play in the hole. Due to some of those minor leg injuries, Turner’s 80 speed is now more of a 70 in game situations, but that difference is tough to notice unless you’re using a stopwatch. 大學新鮮人球季站三壘的Turner從高中到senior spring 為止都沒沒無聞。大二轉守游擊，靠他靈活的手、直覺與動作加上55分的arm 最終能站穩游擊防區。因為那些輕微腿傷，Turner的80分speed 目前在比賽中更傾向只能發揮到70，但差別細微到你得用碼表才能分辨。 Summation: The Padres were pleasantly surprised that Turner was on the board for them at 13th overall last summer and worked out an above slot deal to make sure he’d make it though those last couple picks ahead of them. He’ll start in A-Ball next year but could be a quick mover if he reverts to his 2013 form in 2015. Summation：去年夏天教士對他們意外有機會用13順位撿到Turner感到十分愉悅，甚至用超過建議價的簽約金確保Turner願意與他們簽約。而Turner得到的簽約金還比11、12順位拿到的更多。明年他會從1A開始，但只要恢復2013年的型態他就能快速前進。 Upside: .280/.350/.420, 10-12 homers, plus plus base running, solid average defense FV/Risk: 50, Medium (3 on a 1-5 scale) Projected Path: 2015: Hi-A/AA, 2016: AA/AAA, 2017: AAA/MLB 4. Erick Fedde, RHP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYCZJzLWfyA

Current Level/Age: None/21.9, 6’4/180, R/R Drafted: 18th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of UNLV by WSH for $2.511 million bonus, Agency: Boras Corp Fastball: 60/65, Slider: 50/60, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50 Scouting Report: Fedde jumped on the national scene as a power arm last summer on the Cape and also on Team USA’s loaded pitching staff. He slowly progressed during his draft spring but then had Tommy John surgery a couple weeks before the draft. Given his slight build for a power pitcher, there are some durability questions and his velo would vary game-to-game, but the stuff is top shelf at it’s best. Scouting Report： Fedde以power arm躍上全國版面是去年夏天在Cape Cod Baseball League與全美國家代表隊的事了。雖然選秀年春天已經放慢腳步，但仍在選秀前幾週進行Tommy John，以一個power pitcher 來說身形略顯單薄也引發續航力方面的質疑。每次登板之間的球速也不穩定，但情況最好的時候stuff無疑是頂尖的。 On his best days, Fedde would sit 92-95 and hit 97 mph with a plus slider, an average changeup and command, projecting as a #2/3 starter. In other outings, he’d sit 90-93 with a 55 slider and a fringy changeup and command, with some scouts suggesting he’d fit better as a closer. 當他進入最佳狀況球速落在92-95也可達到97，有plus slider與平均水準的changeup與 command；預估會是二三號先發。其它時候球速則在90-93，slider僅55分，changeup和 command差強人意。某些球探推測他可能比較適合當終結者。 Fedde is throwing already and is expected to get on a throwing program in March . His pre-signing physical didn’t show any problems, so the expectation is that Fedde will be back to 100% in the next year or so, like fellow former injured Nationals draftee Giolito. If Fedde wasn’t hurt, he would be #2 on this list, but TJ’s roughly 80% success rate means there’s still a decent chance his stuff and/or command aren’t the same after this surgery. It’s normally about 2-3 years until we know with some certainty if everything came back as it was pre-surgery. Fedde 已經開始扔球，預期三月將進行投擲項目。簽約前的身體檢查並無異狀，因此期待明年左右他能以百分之百的狀態回歸應該不成問題；就像他在國民的前輩Giolito 那樣。如果Fedde沒受傷會是這張名單上的第二名。但粗估80%的TJ成功率代表stuff與/或 command 或許仍有無法回到術前水準的風險。到底是否一切都能回歸手術前的樣子通常要過兩三年我們才能得到一些確定的答案。 Summation: The plan is for Fedde to appear back on the mound in simulated games around mid-season and then to proceed cautiously, meaning lower levels then either instructs or the Arizona Fall League is a likely path. He would then be set up to loosen the reigns in 2016 and, if everything comes back as expected, Fedde could be on the fast track and a couple spots higher on this list. Summation：為Fedde 制定的計畫是約季中回到投手丘進行模擬賽，接著小心仔細地前進。代表像指導聯盟或AFL 這樣的低階比賽是可能路徑。2016年會放鬆拘束器，如果如預料般找回TJ 前的能力Fedde便會加快爬升速度，也會在新秀名單中往上多爬幾個位置。 FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 starter, High (4 on 1-5 scale) Projected Path: 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A/AA, 2017: AA/AAA, 2018: AAA/MLB -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.34.47.100 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Nationals/M.1424132758.A.4E9.html