[情報] Fangraphs版國民2015新秀榜 PART.2

看板Nationals作者vg175 (非典型廢言)時間10年前 (2015/02/18 08:42)推噓2(2推 0噓 0→)

留言2則, 2人參與討論串1/1

45 FV Prospects 5. Michael Taylor, CF : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx2WcwMUAEk&feature=youtu.be&t=1m2s

Taylor is easy to like as the 6’3/210 athlete can make a big first impression: plus raw power and speed and good defensive instincts to go with an above average arm. He’s also already reached the big leagues, but the 23-year-old really struggled in his 43 plate appearances in September. That’s the crux of what scouts worry about with Taylor: he has good bat speed but will probably always have contact issues. Taylor chases the slider off the plate, doesn’t have a great grasp of the strike zone and finds himself off-balance with poor timing at the plate, with mechanical and plate discipline problems that can feed off each other. He’s so talented that he needs to be in the big leagues to be challenged enough to make adjustments, but many top prospects with this profile never figure it out. 像Taylor這樣六呎三吋210 磅充滿運動能力的傢伙，很容易給人巨大的第一印象： raw power、speed都是plus，很棒的防守直覺，超越平均的arm 。已經上過大聯盟但23歲的他在九月43個打席中確實很掙扎，這也是球探們擔心的癥結點。他有很棒的揮棒速度但可能將永遠伴隨著contact 麻煩；會追打掉到外面的slider，好球帶控制不良，也會被打亂出棒節奏。如能改進打擊機制與本壘板紀律就能改善上述任何一種問題。他充滿天分但需要在大聯盟接受更多挑戰來做出調整，只是許多遇到一樣難關的頂級新秀始終無法克服困境。 Taylor has his share of good hitting characteristics, as his power is to all fields and his big league homer was to the opposite field. He’s also made adjustments/improvements at the plate, particularly last year, and is still relatively young, so there’s some thought Taylor needs to face an extended big league challenge to make the leap. That said, a contending team may not have the patience to wait for that to happen. It’s also worth noting that some are very high on Taylor’s defense: one Nats official said he’s behind only Span in the org in terms of center field defense, playing shallow and covering lots of ground. Drew Stubbs has been tossed around as a reasonable comp and the speed, defense and raw power mean Taylor could even be terrible contact-wise and still a good backup outfielder. Taylor從不隱藏他優秀的打擊特質，像能將球打往任何方向的power ，他在大聯盟的首轟也是往反方向開砲。看管好球帶這部分也做過調整改進，特別是去年；而且他還年輕，還需要更多面對大聯盟投手的機會來跨越鴻溝，儘管一支充滿競爭力的隊伍可能沒耐心等待。值得注意的是Taylor在防守面獲得某些非常高的評價，一位國民內部人士指出他在球團系統裡的中外野防守只落後Span；範圍非常大也能處理淺飛球。 Drew Stubbs 是合理的比較對象，從speed、防守能力與raw power來看Taylor就算可能變成更糟糕的人體風扇也依然還是很棒的替補外野手。 6. A.J. Cole, RHP : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPGS6zzehw8

Cole’s been on the prospect map for what seems like forever, as a high profile prep arm in the 2010 draft that was an overpay in the 4th round. He was traded to Oakland in a package for Gio Gonzalez in 2011, then back to the Nationals for Mike Morse in 2013. Cole has a solid 6’5/200 pitching frame and is a good athlete that repeats his delivery well, projecting for at least average command . He sits mostly 91-94, but has been as high as 98 mph at times. Cole’s changeup is above average and is his best off-speed pitch and he also throws a slider and curveball, with both around average and the slider the better of the two. Cole projects as a 4th starter, had some success at Double-A and Triple-A in 2014 and will be 23 in 2015, with a shot to get into the big league rotation at some point. 看起來Cole似乎得在新秀名單待上一輩子。他是2010年選秀會上的高評價準戰力，第四輪選到他的國民花了大把鈔票才讓他點頭簽約；2011年被當成包裹的一部分交易到奧克蘭換Gio Gonzalez，接著2013年又因Mike Morse交易案回到國民。身為投手的Cole那六呎五吋200 磅的體格相當好，優秀的運動能力也能幫助他持續將出手動作重複得不錯，預估至少有average command。球速幾乎都落在91-94但有時也會上到98，最好的慢速球種是above average changeup，他也會average的slider跟curve，而slider表現則好過 curve 。Cole預計是四號先發，2014年在2A與3A都取得一些不錯的成績，2015年將滿23 歲，某個時間點有機會擠進大聯盟輪值圈。 7. Wilmer Difo, 2B : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBDN1b1s47Y

Difo came out of nowhere in 2014 to have a breakout season at age 22. He signed out of the Dominican in 2010 at age 18 and got his first real playing time in a full season league last year, with outstanding results: he hit 14 homers and stole 49 bases while also striking out in under 11% of his plate appearances. He has real tools, too, as his speed is plus-plus and he isn’t bad defensively at shortstop, but he likely ends up playing second base, where he should be at least average. 不知道從哪裡冒出來的22歲Difo於2014年爆發。2010年僅18歲就簽約離開多明尼加，去年在他第一個真正的完整球季繳出傑出表現：14轟與49次盜壘成功，同時被三振率還能低於11%。他是真貨而速度有plus-plus級，游擊區防守也不差，但他最可能站穩的位置還是至少能有average的二壘。 Difo isn’t much of a power threat and his swing isn’t geared for power, but multiple Nats sources called him pound-for-pound the strongest guy in the system. He made big strides on and off the field last year but he still needs to make some higher level adjustments to let his tools play at the upper levels , having a consistent approach in each at bat and getting his hands loaded on time in each swing. Given his age, the Nats may skip High-A altogether and start Difo in Double-A if he appears up to the task in Spring Training. Difo沒甚麼power威脅性，揮擊方式也不是為了製造power，但多個國民人士認為經過量化比較後他會是農場裡最強壯的傢伙。去年場內場外都有大幅進步，但他仍得對自己的 tools 做出一些調整來適應更高層級的挑戰。每個打數都能把攻擊策略保持一致，每次揮棒都能準時擺好架式。考慮他的年紀，假使春訓打得不錯國民或許會直接跳過High-A 讓他從2A開始。（PS.Difo來自單親家庭，據他表示過去為了想要儘快幫忙分攤家計而給自己太多壓力。去年好不容易想開了才有機會打出來。） Note: Taylor, Cole and Difo all could make a good case for being 50 FV. As I’m putting together all 30 lists to prepare for the overall top prospect list, I’ve split the 40 FV and 45 FV groups further, by adding 45+ and 40+ FV. I’ll continue to present the lists as I have so far, but I’ll make a note of which guys qualify for the higher grouping (Ward, Reetz and Voth are all 40+ FV). Note： Taylor、Cole與Difo都很可能達到 50 FV。就如我拿出前30名列表來準備所有頂級新秀那樣，接下來我會進一步區分 40 FV與45 FV集團為40+以及45+ FV。我將一如到目前為止那樣持續展示這份列表，但我會註明誰有資格進入高FV集團（Ward、Reetz 與Voth都是40+ FV）。 The function of this is mostly to help me make each group smaller so when it’s time to rank players across lists that there’s fewer to compare to each other. The current plan is to have my overall prospect list include all players 45+ FV and up, which will be well over 100 and closer to 200 prospects. 這能幫助我縮小各個集團，當需要為球員排列等級時比較對象也會變少。目前計畫是將我所有列在45+ FV以上的新秀都抓進來，規模將會超過100甚至接近200個新秀。 8. Joe Ross, RHP : http://youtu.be/Sn2YinDRP_M?t=1m52s

I wrote about Ross after he was traded to the Nationals in the Wil Myers three- way deal in December. Ross is a very athletic 6’4/205 with a clean arm action , a solid delivery, an explosive fastball (92-95 mph with plus life) and starter traits, along with good pedigree (25th overall pick 2011 out of high school) and bloodlines (younger brother of Padres RHP Tyson Ross). Some scouts suggest that Ross is a bit soft and question his mental toughness, which jives with the varying reports on his off-speed stuff. 經Wil Myers 三方交易使Ross轉到國民後我曾在文裡提到他（http://ppt.cc/BvuL）。 Ross 擁有充滿運動能力的六呎四吋205磅身材，揮臂乾淨，能維持住一致地出手動作。可投出92-95 帶plus尾勁的爆炸性速球，身懷先發投手特質，加上不錯的出身（2011年 25順位的高中畢業生）與血統（教士右投Tyson Ross的胞弟）。某些球探推測Ross有點軟也質疑他的心智不夠強悍，而關於他慢速球的stuff也是看法分歧。 Ross has above average control (think BB rate) but only projects for fringy to average command (think K/BB ratio) because his off-speed stuff varies night to night and he has trouble hitting exact spots with a plan. I’ve heard future grades range from 45 to 55 (some mention it flashes 60) on his slider, with most scouts agreeing it’s a future average to slightly above pitch, with the same range on the changeup, with most scouts calling it fringy, but he doesn’t throw it much, so I rounded up to average. Ross 有above average control（從保送率考量）但只有邊緣到average的command（從三振保送比考量），因為他的慢速球stuff 每次出賽都不一樣，也無法準確將球投到計畫中的位置。對於他slider的未來發展我聽過45到55的評價，有些則提到曾看過60分的表現，多數球探同意未來將會是average到略高於average。changeup的評價差不多，多數球探覺得只是堪用邊緣，但因為他不常投所以我將它統合到average。 On the right night, you may see a 70 fastball, 55 slider, 55 changeup and solid average command and think you’re watching a future #3/4 starter. On other nights, everything is a notch worse and you think you’re seeing an 8th inning reliever. Scouts that saw him late in 2014 said the energy and arm speed were down and they wondered if he was fatigued, unfocused, hurt or some combination thereof. He’s a solid bet to return big league value and has the traits that scouts like to see to bet on future improvement; I see a fastball-reliant, groundball-generating back end starter. 當他狀況好時你也許將見識70分的fastball、55分的slider、55分的changeup與 solid average command ，你會覺得他的未來是三四號；狀況不好時一切都變得相當糟糕而你會覺得他未來只能投第八局。2014年球季後段觀察過他的球探們說他的能量跟揮臂速度都往下修，他們懷疑他是否累了、注意力不集中、受傷或者合併各種症狀。他是個能回饋大聯盟價值的可靠賭注，也有令球探下注賭他未來還會進步的吸引力。我認為他是個依賴fastball生存，能製造滾地球的輪值後段先發投手。 9. Brian Goodwin, CF : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQvOVEr5uhM

Goodwin is more the typical type of center fielder compared to Taylor, the toolshed ranked 5th on this list. Goodwin is still plenty toolsy, as a plus runner (with just okay instincts, projecting average defensively in center) with an above average arm and fringy raw power. Goodwin has a line drive type approach, so the power is more 10-13 homers, still above average for the position. Like Taylor, Goodwin’s value comes down to his bat, but Goodwin’s offensive skills are more likely to translate at the big league level. He’s a late-count hitter than can get too passive at times, get in a rut and start over-thinking, causing problems only in his head, because his mechanics are consistent and he has above average bat speed. Goodwin will show flashes of leadoff hitter skills and will get a chance to redeem himself at Triple-A again in 2015. 跟工具掛滿滿的排名第五Taylor比起來Goodwin更接近傳統型中外野手。Goodwin還是很 toolsy，是個plus runner，加上還可以的直覺，預估在中外野有average防守能力，也還有above average arm跟過得去的raw power。Goodwin 採取打平飛球攻擊策略，所以 power可以提供約10-13轟；在他的位置依舊是above average。就像Taylor，Goodwin的價值也在他的棒子，但Goodwin 的攻擊技巧更有機會轉換到大聯盟；因為他的機制相當穩定而且也有above average 的揮棒速度。不過有時比起積極他會選擇等更多球，墨守成規而且開始想太多，在腦子裡自找麻煩；Goodwin 將展現開路先鋒的打擊技巧，2015 年也將再次得到在3A證明自己的機會。 10. Pedro Severino, C : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6i6XQicGrE

Severino is very fun to watch and in my very limited look at him in the AFL a few months ago, he jumped off the field at me. He’s an above average runner and defender with a plus arm and all kinds of energy. Severino’s swing is solid and he has some pop, but the offensive tools haven’t quite added up to big performance yet. The glove will be his calling card for now and Severino is an excellent pitch framer and game caller that’s already one of the better English speakers in the Nats system. If he can focus on making contact and staying short to the ball, there’s a potentially long career for an athletic catcher with above average defense that isn’t terrible at the plate. 當幾個月前我在AFL用有限的機會觀察Severino 時他相當有觀賞價值，就像突然蹦到我面前那樣。他是個above average的runner與防守者，有plus arm 與所有種類的能量。 Severino揮棒相當穩固也有些長打能力，但攻擊tools 還沒以相當程度反映出來。目前手套是他的主力武器，英語能力在國民農場中還算不錯的Severino也是了不起的騙好球能手跟戰場指揮官，如果他能更專注於製造contact 並縮短揮棒軌跡這個充滿運動能力的捕手便有在大聯盟長久生存的潛力。就一個擁有above average 防守的蹲捕者而言還算不賴。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.34.47.100 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Nationals/M.1424220146.A.B24.html