[外電] BA 2016 TOP 10 Prospects CHAT

看板Nationals作者vg175 (非典型廢言)時間10年前 (2015/11/18 19:08)推噓7(7推 0噓 1→)

留言8則, 7人參與討論串1/1

http://goo.gl/1YLYMp Moderator: BA’s Teddy Cahill will be here at 2 p.m. Eastern to chat about the Nationals’ top prospects. Teddy Cahill: Welcome to the Nationals’ Top 10 prospects chat. A fun system to break down, as always, so let’s get to the questions. I’d like it if you stayed. Jerious (Canada): Do you think Lucas Giolito becomes a full-time major-leaguer next year (similar to the way syndergaard was handled this year) or does he need 1 more full year in the minors given that he didn't exactly dominate AA batters? 你覺得國民明年會像今年的大都會處理Syndergaard那樣對待Giolito嗎？或者他還需要另一個完整小聯盟球季？畢竟他還算不上真正壓制2A打者。 Teddy Cahill: Let’s start at the top of the list with Giolito. The Nats top prospect had a good season and reached Double-A for the first time in his career. As he gets closer to the big leagues, the excitement is only going to build. But it is unlikely he spends most of next year in the big leagues. He’s only thrown 47 innings above A ball and will be 21 for most of the 2016 season. If he continues to progress, he could put himself in consideration for a call up, but his true ETA is more likely in 2017. All of that, however, comes with the caveat that once prospects of his caliber take off it is very difficult to slow them down. 就從排名龍頭的Giolito 開始看起吧。這位國民頂級新秀有一個很好的球季，也是職業生涯第一次升上2A。隨著他離大聯盟越來越近，令人興奮的程度可說有增無減；但明年不大可能花上大部分時間待在大聯盟，離開1A後他只投過47局而且明年下半年才滿21歲，只要他繼續成長就有機會收到call up ，但要真正在大聯盟一展拳腳可能還是得等到2017年。然而我們還是得說，一位新秀一旦開始起飛你根本擋都擋不了。 Mick (Chicago): With A.J. Preller and all scouting reports saying Trea Turner lacks a 60 arm necessary to play short, might Wilmer Difo be the man there and Turner play 2B or CF? A.J. Preller 跟所有球探報告都說臂力不到60的Trea Turner站不了游擊，Difo有機會取而代之並讓Turner去站二壘或中外野嗎？ Teddy Cahill: The theory that shortstops need a 60 arm is one that has been on my mind a lot this year, dating back to when the BA 500 was beginning to come together. It really is fascinating to think about. But, more to the point, the Nationals continue to believe Turner can be an everyday shortstop in the big leagues. If he winds up changing positions (which I don’t particularly think will happen), I don’t think it would be Difo playing shortstop. His arm is no better than Turner’s. So if Turner is moving because he doesn’t have a 6 arm, Difo would not provide an upgrade. And when Turner and Difo were briefly teammates in Double-A, it was Turner playing shortstop. The Nationals aren’t giving up on Difo playing shortstop, but Turner remains the more likely of the two to be Washington’s shortstop going forward. 這些年來我一直都很注重游擊手需要60分臂力這種理論，可以回溯到BA 開始排500大選秀的時候吧？我真的滿腦子這種想法。不過更重要的是國民一直都相信Turner能成為大聯盟固定先發游擊手。雖然我不特別認為他會轉換位置，但假使真的發生了我也不覺得取代的會是Difo。Difo的臂力沒比Turner好。因此若是Turner因臂力不及格得離開游擊，換成Difo也談不上升級。而且當他們短暫在2A當隊友那段時間也是Turner 站游擊。國民並沒有捨棄讓Difo守游擊的打算，只是未來Turner仍然是兩人之中更可能在華盛頓站游擊的球員。 BD (DC): Lets talk Vic Robles. Future star? MLB Regular? What is his ceiling? 聊聊Robles吧！未來明星？正規先發？他的天花板在哪？ Teddy Cahill: At least a third of the questions in the queue are about Victor Robles, the breakout star of 2015, so let’s outline some of the broad strokes here. Robles is one of the most exciting players in the minor leagues. The Nationals were excited about him during their minicamp before Spring Training and that’s continued pretty much unabated. It’s important to remember he’s only 18 and has yet to reach full-season ball. That said, you can dream on him as much as you’d like. The ceiling is for him to be a star. He’s got true five-tool potential, has proven to be advanced for his age and earns praise for his aptitude and work ethic. For more on Robles, probably keep reading this chat because I’m sure there will be more on him to come, but if you haven’t read Ben Badler’s story on him from this summer, I’d definitely recommend checking it out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/rapid-rise-victor-robles/ 好奇今年大爆發的Victor Robles 的人大概有整整三排，那麼就來大致描述一下吧。 Robles是全小聯盟最令人興奮的球員之一，國民從春訓前的迷你營就開始高潮了而且絲毫未見衰退。重點是才18歲的他甚至還沒打過一個完整球季，也就是說他會變成什麼樣子完全不設限。天花板是全明星。他的five-tool 都是真貨，已經證明表現超齡，也因天賦與工作倫理獲得讚揚。想知道更多繼續看這篇chat就好，我相信會有更多人來打聽。不過假如你還沒看過Ben Badler今年夏天寫的這篇我絕對推薦好好看看。翻譯文#1LtkmZx0 Paul (Baltimore): What was the consensus opinion of OF Blake Perkins? Thx for chatting 說說看外野手Blake Perkins吧！感恩。 Teddy Cahill: Robles is not the only high-upside teenage outfielder in the system. Blake Perkins, the Nationals’ second pick of the draft, has exciting potential as well. He was the top high school position player in Arizona this year and has exciting, projectable tools. He was a righthanded hitter when the Nationals drafted him, but they’ve made him a switch-hitter and are encouraged by the early results. When the full Top 30 comes out in the Prospect Handbook (order it now! https://www.baseballamerica.com/store/store.cgi) you’ll see him just outside the top 10. Robles不是農場裡唯一高天花板的青少年外野手，第二輪的Blake Perkins 同樣擁有令人激動的潛能。他是今年Arizona最好的高中生野手，tools也值得期待。被選上時他是純右打，但國民把他改造為左右開弓，球團對早期結果也十分滿意。當Top 30出刊時你會發現他剛好就排在前十以外。 Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Thanks for the chat! How difficult was it to separate Robles, Fedde, and Lopez for this list? 感謝開洽。排列Robles、Fedde與Lopez有多困難？ Teddy Cahill: That’s Nos. 3-5 on the top 10. On some level, deciding any order on these lists is always tough. But that particular set was not much of a sticking point for me. There’s probably an argument for any order of those three players, especially when you consider Robles’ age and Fedde’s health. But here at BA, we’re pretty high on Robles, so he was a pretty clear cut leader there. And while Fedde has only thrown 64 innings as a professional, I find it easier to have confidence in him eventually becoming a big league starter than I do in Lopez. 他們是前十大的三到五名。新秀排名不管怎麼排都很困難，但這樣排也還不是那麼困擾我。誰先誰後可能還都有得討論，特別是當你考慮到Robles的年紀與Fedde 的健康時。但是在BA這裡我們對Robles的評價非常高，因此毫無疑問他是三人中排行最高的。雖然Fedde只在職業球賽投過64局，但我對Fedde能在大聯盟登板先發的信心還是簡單超過Lopez。 RUFresh (DC): The system is light on pure power bats - maybe this is an organizational philosophy but they really haven't developed one outside of Harper. Are there any sleepers in the system that could help fill this void? 國民農場缺少純強打，也許是這個組織的運作哲學但自Harper之後他們就一個都養不出來。農場裡有任何sleeper能填這個洞嗎？ Teddy Cahill: That’s a very good observation. When filling out the Best Tools, it was a challenge to pick Best Power Hitter (ultimately that went to Matt Skole). I think the Nationals generally emphasize athleticism when looking at position players – and that includes Harper. His power is immense, obviously, but he’s a five-tool player. There are some power hitters scattered through the system. But future power is more likely to come from young hitters developing it as they mature. Drew Ward was known for his power as an amateur, but hasn’t shown it as much as a pro. Anderson Franco and Jakson Reetz have significant power potential to unlock and Robles will add power as he gets bigger and stronger. 非常棒的觀察。填寫Best Tools時最大的挑戰就是Best Power Hitter 這項，最後填的是Matt Skole。我想國民觀察野手通常著重運動能力，這也包括Harper；很顯然他的power沒有極限，但他也是five-tool 人。農場裡四散著幾個power hitters，不過伴隨年輕打者身體茁壯後出現的future power 還是較被看好。業餘時期的Drew Ward 以power著稱，可是還沒能轉換到職業比賽；Anderson Franco與Jakson Reetz都有強悍的power潛力等待解鎖，當Robles長得更高更壯後power也會增加。 Eric (Chicago): What's the current thinking on catcher Pedro Severino? Any signs that he'll develop enough with the bat to earn a starting catcher role? 目前對Pedro Severino的評估如何？有任何他棒子能養到足以擔任大聯盟先發捕手的跡象嗎？ Teddy Cahill: Severino was the last player cut from the top 10 and there’s an argument for his inclusion in the list. His glove is good enough that he won’t ever have to hit a ton to be an everyday player, but he will need to hit a bit more than his .236/.288/.338 career minors line. He’s only 21, he’s already gotten to the big leagues and it can take longer for catchers to develop offensively. I think there’s a lot to like there. But he looks like he’ll at least be a solid backup if he doesn’t put it together at the plate. Severino是最後一個被剔除於十大之外的，關於他能否排進十大也有些討論。他的手套棒到不需打擊太強也能蹲捕先發捕手，但還是得拿出比小聯盟生涯.236/.288/.338 更好的三圍才行。他才21歲就已經上過大聯盟，而通常捕手的攻擊養成也會花上更多時間。我想他是值得期待，就算棒子養不起來至少他也能成為可靠的二號捕手。 Hogie (MD): There are a lot of Catcher prospects in the system. Can you rank... Pedro Severino, Jakson Reetz, Spencer Kieboom, and Raudy Read? 農場裡有不少捕手新秀，像Severino、Reetz、Spencer Kieboom、Raudy Read等等。你能排個先後順序嗎？ Teddy Cahill: So having talked just about Severino, I’d line up the next three as Reetz, Read and Kieboom. It’s an interesting set of catching prospects and it’s possible they could each be the starting catcher for a full-season club on Opening Day 2016. 剛剛說過的Severino排第一，二到四我會擺Reetz，Read與Kieboom。這組捕手新秀很有意思，也許每個人都會在明年各個小聯盟階層開幕戰得到先發捕手的位置。 DR (Maryland): Sounds like Hagerstown might have a strong roster. Rhett Wiseman , Stevenson, Robles, Franco, Fedde, Perkins, etc Think they all start there? This year's Greenville? 聽起來Hagerstown的roster不錯強。Rhett Wiseman、Stevenson、Robles、Franco、 Fedde、Perkins 等等。明年他們都會從這裡開始嗎？可看性會像今年的 Greenville Drive一樣高嗎？ Teddy Cahill: It’s very unlikely they’d all start there. Stevenson may be ticketed for Potomac. It’ll be interesting to see if Perkins starts in full- season ball or if he gets held back. Franco barely got to the Penn League at the end of summer and could start in extended as well. But Robles alone will make for an exciting team in Hagerstown. 他們不會都從Hagerstown開始的可能性相當大。Stevenson也許會直上Potomac，觀察 Perkins會直接打一個完整球季或參加延長春訓會很有趣。夏天尾聲Franco 才終於摸到Penn League ，明年也很可能先打延長春訓。不過就算光靠Robles一個人就足以讓 Hagerstown充滿看頭了。 Justin (NY): What's the future looking like for Abel De Los Santos? Can he move back to the rotation or will he stick in the major league bullpen? Abel De Los Santos的未來如何？他有機會回輪值或者上大聯盟後還是得鎖在牛棚？ Teddy Cahill: De Los Santos is a reliever at this point. He’s done really well in that role and is close to being big league ready. Don’t know if he’ll make the team out of Spring Training, but you’ll see him back in Washington at some point in 2016. De Los Santos 目前是隻牛，這個角色他詮釋得還不錯也幾乎準備好上大聯盟。我不知道他能不能擠進開幕名單，但2016年的某時你會看到他回到華盛頓。 Brett (DC): Does Nick Lee have a chance to break into the pen as a lefty arm next year? Nick Lee明年有機會升上大聯盟當左手牛嗎？ Teddy Cahill: He does. He made some good progress this year and got up to Double-A. He’s got a good fastball-curveball combination and a good enough changeup to combat righthanded hitters. If he can figure out his command a bit – he walked 19 batters in 24 innings with Harrisburg – he could soon put himself in consideration for a call up. 確實有，他今年發展得很好也升上2A。混用速球與曲球為主力武器，變速球也足以應付右打。不過2A的24局裡他就送出19次保送，如果能解決command 問題很快就有機會被列入call up名單。 John (NC): If there isn't a rotation spot for A.J. Cole in WAS to begin 2016, do you think they'll keep him stretched out in AAA or try to bolster the pen with his arm? Is the current consensus among scouts that he can make it as an SP in the bigs? 如果華盛頓明年開季沒有A.J. Cole 的輪值空間，你覺得球團會要他回3A先發或者在牛棚找個位置？球探們對他能否以先發角色站穩大聯盟有共識嗎？ Teddy Cahill: If A.J. Cole doesn’t make the rotation, you’ll likely see him start the year in Syracuse. The bullpen is possible, of course, there’s a lot that can happen in the next five months, but he’s still very much a starter. I know it seems like he’s been around forever, but he won’t turn 24 until January. So there’s no great rush with him. 如果Cole沒能得到大聯盟先發輪值角色你很可能會看到他從3A開季，當然牛棚也有機會。未來五個月充滿各種可能性。不過他依然很有能力先發。我知道看起來他會永遠找不到方向，但他明年一月才滿24歲所以不必太著急。 Joey (New Jersey): Koda Glover put up video game numbers in the low minors. How quickly can he move, and he is a potential MLB closer? Koda Glover的低階聯盟數據簡直像打電動，他能爬多快？有大聯盟終結者潛能嗎？ Teddy Cahill: Koda Glover, the Nats eighth rounder this year, had one of the best debuts of any 2015 draftee. He mostly pitched in Hagerstown, where he had 27 strikeouts in 24 innings and posted a 0.917 WHIP. He should be able to move quick. He runs his fastball up to 98 and combines it with a good slider. You never know who can end up as a closer, but he certainly has the potential to pitch in high-leverage situations. A very good find for the Nationals in the draft this year. 第八輪的Koda Glover是今年選秀debut後表現最好的的新秀之一。他待在Hagerstown 最久，24局投出27次奪三振，WHIP也只有0.917 。他應該可以爬得很快。他有98的速球搭配不錯的滑球。你永遠不會知道未來誰能成為終結者，不過他的確擁有抵抗高壓力的潛力。他是今年國民成功摸到的珍珠。 Justin (NY): Is Max Schrock a steal in the later rounds of the draft? Max Schrock算是偷到的嗎？ Teddy Cahill: So I just said Koda Glover was a good find for the Nats. Schrock is another one. He was a solid player at South Carolina and played well in his pro debut. He’s got a good feel for hitting and should be able to stick at second base. He’s certainly one to watch going forward. 剛剛才說Koda Glover是非常漂亮的珍珠，Schrock則是另一個。他在South Carolina 打球時就是優秀的球員，職業debut 也表現很好。他的打擊手感不錯，應該能站穩二壘手位置。未來絕對可以好好觀察。 Cal Guy (Cal): Some writers have suggested Giolito is no longer the #1 pitching prospect in baseball, having been surpassed by Alex Reyes and/or Anderson Espinoza. What is your take? 某些寫手不認為Giolito還是最好的投手新秀，覺得他已被Alex Reyes與／或Anderson Espinoza超車。你覺得呢？ Teddy Cahill: I am firmly NOT in that group. I believe Giolito remains the best pitching prospect in baseball. I believe I’m the high man on Giolito in the office, as I’d also put him in the discussion to be the top prospect in baseball (I’m not sure anyone would join me on that, but we haven’t had serious Top 100 discussions yet). Alex Reyes, Anderson Espinoza and Julio Urias are all really good pitchers as well. But I’ll take Giolito. 我絕不認同這種論點，我相信Giolito 還是全棒球界最好的投手新秀，也自認是全辦公室裡最死忠的Giolito 支持者，甚至認為他應該是全小聯盟最好的新秀。我不知道有多少人同意，反正我們也還沒針對百大新秀有過認真討論。Alex Reyes、Anderson Espinoza、Julio Urias都是相當好的投手，但要挑第一我會挑Giolito。 Joey (New Jersey): Austen Williams had a breakout season. Organizational pitcher of the year. No. 4 starter? 今年是Austen Williams的突破年，2015 Bob Boone Award 獲獎人（國民自己內部頒給小聯盟傑出選手的獎項），有機會成為四號先發嗎？ Teddy Cahill: Williams was very impressive this year, splitting his time between Hagerstown and Potomac. He’s certainly capable of becoming a big league starter. He’s got a three-pitch arsenal and competes on the mound. He doesn’t have the upside of some of the pitchers in this system, but he’s got a lot of the tools you look for in a starter. Will be interesting to see him face upper level competition. 今年Hagerstown跟Potomac各打一半的Williams 表現令人印象深刻，他真的有本事站上大聯盟先發出賽。他有三種武器球，投手丘上也充滿鬥志。他沒有農場裡某些投手的天份，但他有不少你想看到的先發投手tools 。很期待看他往上爬升後如何面對更高層級的挑戰。 Dan (Watertown, MA): Hi Teddy. Did righty Joan Baez garner any attention for his GCL performance? Thanks for the chat. 右投Joan Baez在GCL的表現有引起任何注意嗎？感謝。 Teddy Cahill: Baez absolutely got some attention. Ben Badler wrote about 11 pitchers who touched 100 mph this season in short-season ball, and Baez was among them: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/11-pitchers-throwing-100-mph/ . The tough thing with Baez is that he struggled significantly at levels above the GCL in large part because of his command. He’s still very raw. But if he’s able to get more consistent, he’s got the stuff to really take off. You’ll see him on the full Top 30. 當然了。Ben Badler 寫過一篇文章介紹短期聯盟中速球能飆到100的11位投手，Baez 也是其中之一。麻煩的是他離開GCL後就因為command問題投得非常掙扎。他還非常嫩，不過如果能表現得更穩定，他真的有stuff 能幫他一飛沖天。你會在30大名單裡找到他。 Dan (Rockville, MD): Speaking of Difo, what's his ceiling? 說說Difo吧，他的天花板在哪？ Teddy Cahill: Ceiling? Big league regular, probably at second base. While his rise as a prospect has been very impressive these last couple years, it is important to remember he only has 392 plate appearances above A ball. So he’s still developing and working on various parts of his game. 天花板？大聯盟固定先發選手，也許是二壘手。即便近兩年作為一個向上崛起的新秀很難讓人忘記，也千萬別忘了越過1A後的他只有392 個打席，因此他還需要培養。許多比賽中的眉角也正在努力。 Grant (NYC): How many of these top ten guys do you think could make BA's list of 100 next year? 你覺得國民前十大有幾個能擠進明年BA百大？ Teddy Cahill: We’re still a few months from putting that together, but the top three are locks. They’ll all be in the top half. I would also rank Fedde and possibly Lopez. That’s where I’d draw the line, personally, but someone could make a case for Difo and Cole. 百大還有幾個月才會開始排，但前三名已經鎖住三個位置了。他們都會在前50大。我自己也會排上Fedde，Lopez也有機會。這是我個人的底限，但某些人或許也會將Difo 與Cole列入考慮。 Teddy Cahill: We’ll wrap it up there. Thanks to everyone for their questions. If I didn’t get to yours and you want to leave it in the comments, I’ll try to answer it there. And don’t forget the NL Central Top 10s start Friday. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.34.47.100 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Nationals/M.1447844909.A.B81.html