[外電] Williams and how not to run a bullpen

看板Nationals作者vg175 (非典型廢言)時間11年前 (2014/10/09 14:36)推噓1(1推 0噓 2→)

留言3則, 3人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

http://0rz.tw/bUCmK Dave Cameron There is so much more to managing a baseball team than what we see during the games. We only see the lineups, the batting order, and the pitching changes; we don't see the human interactions, the coaching, and all of the work that goes into keeping so many large personalities pointed in the right direction. Managing a baseball team is about a lot more than just in-game strategy. 執教一支球隊要管的事情可多了，不只是下戰術而已。 But in-game strategy is part of the job, and on Tuesday night, Matt Williams failed at that part of the job in the most important game of his team's season. And while we cannot know what would have happened if different decisions had been made, we do know that maybe the best team in baseball just got bounced in the first round due, at least in part, to a series of decisions that strain credulity. 但下戰術也是總教練工作的一環。MW卻在球季最重要的比賽搞砸了。 Let's just walk through the pivotal seventh inning. Bryce Harper had just tied the game in the top half of the inning, so the score was tied at 2-2 with the top of the Giants order coming up. The Giants No. 1 and No. 2 hitters both bat left-handed, so Williams countered with Matt Thornton, the team's only remaining left-handed reliever. Perfectly logical. 來看看關鍵的第七局。 Harper七局上幫助球隊以2-2追平比數，七下輪巨人前段打線。前兩棒都是左打所以MW決定讓球隊僅剩的左手牛Thronton上場，邏輯完美。 Thornton got a groundout from Gregor Blanco, then gave up a single to Joe Panik . That put the go-ahead run on base for Buster Posey, the Giants best hitter. The Giants best right-handed hitter. Here is what Buster Posey has done against left-handed pitchers in his career: Thronton以滾地球解決Blanco後被Panik敲一壘安打，追平分上壘輪巨人最好的打者Posey打擊。他也是巨人最好的右打者，下面是Posey生涯面對左投成績： 631 at-bats, 210 hits, 53 doubles, 2 triples, 32 home runs, 61 walks, 77 strikeouts. 631打數 210安打 53支二壘安打 2支三壘安打 32支全壘打 61次保送 77次三振 That's a .333/.393/.578 batting line, which when you account for his home park, translates to a 168 wRC+, meaning that Posey's performance against lefties has been 68-percent better than a league-average hitter. Do you want some context for that? In 2012, when Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown, he had a 166 wRC+. Posey's performance against left-handers has basically been the equal of the game's most feared hitter having one of his best years. 三圍.333/.393/.578，整個就是他的主場。可以轉換成168wRC+，表示當他面對左投時比聯盟平均打者好上68%。想要更多說明嗎？ 2012年當胖卡拿下三冠王他的wRC+是166。 Posey對左投時基本上跟聯盟最恐怖打者的生涯年幾無二異。 In the seventh inning of a tied regular-season game, you probably wouldn't let Buster Posey face a left-handed reliever. To do so in an win-or-go-home playoff game defies basic reasoning. And that's exactly what Matt Williams did, sticking with Thornton against Posey, even though Thornton had just put the go-ahead run on base. 例行賽七局平手的話你也許都不會讓Posey面對左手牛。而這是MW所做的：在一場win-or-go-home季後賽中無視基本原則，讓Thronton對Posey。即使Thronton才剛放一個超前分上壘。 Predictably, Posey hit a line drive to center field, and the Nationals are lucky that it was hit right toward Denard Span, so Posey only got a single, and Panik only advanced to second base. So now the go-ahead run was in scoring position, with only one out, and Hunter Pence -- another quality right-handed hitter -- coming to the plate. 一如預期Posey擊出中外野平飛安打。國民運氣好的是球掉在Span正前方，所以Posey只能上一壘而Panik也只推進到二壘。現在超前分進入得點圈，只有一人出局，另一個優質右打Pence進入打擊區。 Williams rightfully decided that Thornton shouldn't be the guy to face Pence, and went to the bullpen to get a right-hander. But no, he didn't call on Tyler Clippard, the team's best relief pitcher, who held right-handed batters to a .126/.197/.226 line this season, even though the Giants would be almost 90-percent favorites to win the game if Panik scored and they took the lead into the top of the eighth. Preventing Panik from scoring in that inning was of the utmost importance, but Clippard wasn't called upon because he wasn't even warming up. MW立刻決定動用右手牛，不讓Thronton對付Pence。即使只要Panik回本壘後進入八局代表巨人幾乎九成能贏， MW也沒用陣中最好的中繼投手：今年把右打三圍壓到.126/.197/.226的Clippard。阻止Panik在七下得分是最重要的，但Clippard沒被叫上場。因為他根本還沒開始熱身。 That's right. Not only did Williams let Posey hit against a left-handed reliever with the go-ahead run on base, he didn't even have his best reliever warming in case it didn't work. He did have rookie Aaron Barrett warming up, however, and that's who he called on to go after Hunter Pence. 就是這樣。 MW不只讓Posey在超前分上壘時有左投打，甚至沒為了預防萬一要他最好的中繼投手熱身準備。他要菜鳥Barrett熱身，他要Barrett解決Pence。 Now, despite being a rookie, Aaron Barrett isn't a terrible choice to be pitching for the Nationals in the playoffs. He had a good first year in the big leagues, striking out 28 percent of the batters he faced, and more importantly, 31 percent of the right-handed batters he faced. Righties only hit .190/.277/.253 against him his year. He earned his way onto the playoff roster, and we've seen plenty of live-armed youngsters come up big out of the bullpen in the postseason before. 除了菜鳥以外Barrett對國民季後賽來說並不是個糟糕的選擇。他的大聯盟新人年很不賴，三振掉28%他面對的打者，更重要的是對右打他的三振率提升到31%，右打今年對他的三圍只有.190/.277/.253。他贏得他的季後賽位置，之前的季後賽我們也看過不少年輕的速球派在關鍵時刻上場投球。 But Barrett has one primary flaw right now: his command isn't very good. He threw only 45 percent of his pitches in the strike zone this year, and walked 12 percent of the batters he faced. His best pitch is a strong power slider that he gets hitters to chase out of the zone, but with the go-ahead run at second base and only one out, Barrett couldn't afford to miss out of the zone and push that runner to third base with a walk. Doing so would remove the Giants' for a hit, and allow them to take the lead with simply a medium-depth fly ball. 但Barrett有個最基本的瑕疵：控球並不是很好。本季只有45%的球能投進好球帶，保送率也有12%。他的主力武器是掉出好球帶也能引誘打者追打的強力滑球，但在超前分站二壘只有一出局的狀況下，如果Barrett不把球投進好球帶，就要承擔因保送而把超前分送上三壘的風險。這麼做會使巨人不用靠安打，僅憑簡單一顆深淺適中的飛球就能取得領先。 So instead, Wilson Ramos called for Barrett to throw seven consecutive fastballs to Pence; unfortunately, only two of them were in the strike zone, and he walked Pence anyway. Because of the situation, Barrett was asked to pitch in the biggest game of his life, and do it without his best pitch. Pence's walk pushed Panik to third base, and brought up switch-hitting Pablo Sandoval. 因此Ramos要Barrett連投七顆速球，很不幸只兩顆投進好球帶。最終他還是保送Pence。在這種情況下Barrett被要求站上他人生最大的舞台，卻沒辦法拿出最好的表現。 Pence的保送把Panik擠上三壘，下一棒是左右開弓的熊貓。 Now, the usage of Thornton to go after Blanco and Panik meant that the team didn't have any more left-handed relievers, so Sandoval was going to bat left-handed, his much stronger side. For his career, Sandoval has a 132 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, but just a 95 wRC+ against left-handers, and this season the split was even more extreme: 136 against RHPs and 59 against LHPs. Sandoval's biggest strength as a hitter is driving the ball against pitchers like Aaron Barrett. 用掉Thronton面對Blanco與Panik表示球隊已經沒有其他左手牛，熊貓便能用他更強大的左手打擊。在熊貓的職業生涯對付右投有132wRC+，對左投僅95wRC+；本季差異更巨大，對右投136而對左投低到59。做為一個打者，熊貓的力量可以摧毀Barrett這樣的投手。 Barrett, by the way, had even more severe command problems against lefties this year, since his slider is mostly ineffective against them. Forced to just pound fastballs, and without a real out-pitch to throw them, Barrett walked 15 percent of the left-handed batters he faced this year, and only struck out 22 percent. Barrett is a good right-on-right reliever when he can use his slider, but you don't really want him facing a lefty in a big situation, and you definitely don't want him facing a lefty who kills right-handed pitchers with the bases loaded. In a tie game. In the seventh inning. Of a game that ends your season if you lose. 順帶一提由於Barrett的滑球之於左打幾乎無效，他今年對左打的控球更悽慘。 Barrett被迫只能用速球，卻又缺少一個製造出局數的武器。今年Barrett對左打有15%的保送率，三振率只剩22%。雖然當Barrett能用上他的滑球時能好好解決右打，但你不會真的要他在大場面對上左打，你也絕不想讓他在滿壘時遇到右投殺手。而且這是比分打平的七局下半，你輸掉就打包放假的這種比賽。 But even after watching Barrett walk Pence, Williams stuck with his youngster. Sandoval ended up not even mattering, as Barrett's wildness led to a wild pitch that scored Panik from third, and then he uncorked another wild pitch while attempting to intentionally walk Sandoval once first base was open. That was the final straw for Williams, who removed his young right-hander from the game rather than letting him face the left-handed Brandon Belt, still with two men on base even after Posey was forced out at home trying to score on the second wild pitch. 就算Barrett保送Pence，MW還是沒換。熊貓甚至不用出棒就能看著Barrett暴投送回超前分Panik，然後在IBB熊貓上一壘時再度暴投。 MW終於受不了而換人，不讓Barrett再投Belt。就算Posey在第二次暴投搶攻本壘失敗，壘包上也還是站著兩個人。 To replace Barrett, Williams called on Rafael Soriano, who had such a poor second half that he lost his job as closer and almost didn't make the playoff roster. Soriano is basically just an older, diminished version of Barrett, a fastball-slider right-hander who doesn't do as well against lefties. And yet, even though any hit to the gap would essentially end the Nationals season, Williams brought in Soriano to face Belt. MW叫下半季爛掉丟掉CL甚至差點擠不進季後賽的Sorry接替Barrett。 Sorry基本上是個更老的劣化版Barrett，一個無法好好解決左打的速球滑球混用右投。即使是任何一支掉到空檔的安打都能終結國民球季， MW還是要Sorry上去對付Belt。 Tyler Clippard never even warmed up that inning. Neither did Stephen Strasburg, the team's dominant starter who was available out of the bullpen, and who could have bridged the gap to get to the eighth inning if Williams was completely insistent on maintaining his regular season roles. After the game, Williams said Strasburg was available only in an emergency, but he didn't clarify why pulling his starter after four innings in an elimination game didn't qualify as an emergency. Clippard在這個半局從沒起來熱身過，更別說小史這個具有壓制力而且能上場當牛用的先發。如果MW徹底堅持他例行賽季的球員使用法，小史可以上去頂住七局等八局再讓Clippard上班。賽後MW表示小史只有在緊急情況才會使用，但他沒說清楚為何要在不贏就回家的關鍵戰第四局，就在稱不上危機的狀況下拔掉先發？ But I can at least see an argument for why Storen or Strasburg wasn't ready to go in the seventh inning. Clippard, though, is on the roster for these exact situations: getting big outs with men on base in extremely high-leverage at-bats. It doesn't get any more high-leverage than if-this-guy-at-second- scores-our-season-is-probably-over, but Clippard simply sat and watched his less-talented teammates give up the run that would eventually decide the game. 至少我可以理解為何七局不派Storen或小史。至於Clippard，他的存在就是為了在這麼明確的高張力情況下上場拿下重要出局數。＂如果二壘那傢伙回來我們大概也玩完了＂，沒有比這樣更緊張的局面。但Clippard只是坐在那裡，看著比不上自己的隊友丟掉那差不多等於結束球季的那一分。 Before the game, I suggested that the Nationals use Strasburg in a pre-planned relief role, allowing him to pitch as normally as possible out of the bullpen, and in that piece, I made this statement: "The team’s best chance to win two games is likely to maximize the percentage of innings thrown by Zimmermann, Strasburg, Clippard, and Storen." 賽前我猜測國民會這麼使用小史：儘量讓他在正常狀況下上場支援牛棚。基於如此我會這麼說：國民要能拿下第二勝最好的機會就是以最大限度運用JZnn，小史，Clippard及Storen。 Those four pitchers combined to throw zero pitches in Game Four, and due in part to that decision, Game Five won't even happen. The Nationals lost because Matt Thornton -- given to the team by the Yankees in exchange for only the waiver fee, as New York just didn't want him anymore -- and Aaron Barrett couldn't keep the middle of the Giants' order from scoring one run, and because Williams wasn't willing to use his best relievers to escape a jam that didn't even need to happen in the first place. 這四個投手在第四戰合計投球數是零。這是國民看不到第五戰的部分原因。國民之所以輸掉這場比賽，是因為從洋基讓渡名單裡撿來甚至不要求回報的Thronton；沒辦法不失分鎖住巨人中心打線的Barrett；與拒絕讓最好的中繼投手上場解決危機的MW。而這種危機甚至從一開始就根本可以不必發生。 There is no parallel to this in other sports. NFL teams that trail by a touchdown don't put in their backup linebackers until their offense takes the lead again. NBA teams don't use their worst bench players in the first half, saving their good reserves for the end of the game, as long as they're winning when the fourth quarter rolls around. Baseball is the only sport where it's perfectly acceptable to lose a game because the worst players on your roster didn't create a lead for your best players to protect. Not using your best relievers in a tie game, or even down a single run -- while employing them to "save" a game where you only need to get three outs before you give up three runs -- just doesn't make sense. 其它運動裡完全找不到類比。 NFL球隊落後一次touchdown時，直到攻擊組取得領先為止都不會把後備linebackers放上來。 NBA球隊不會為了比賽末段保留實力，選擇在上半場放上最糟糕的板凳球員。就算第四節開始時是領先者也不會。因為最差勁的球員無法取得領先讓最好的球員上場保護而輸掉比賽，棒球是唯一一個可以完全理解這種運作模式的運動。不讓你最好的牛在平手或甚至只落後一分時登場，卻又希望他們＂守住＂一場勝利；而你在丟三分以前甚至只需要先拿到三個出局數就好。完全不合理。 As an outsider, we can't know about the internal dynamics of the clubhouse and how well Williams might or might not have handled the aspects of his job that we never see. But part of his job is also to make decisions during the games that give his team the best chance to win, and in the biggest game of his managerial career, he made a series of poor decisions that directly led to the run that eliminated his team from the postseason. The Nationals' offense didn't do Williams any favors in this series, and it's tough to advance when your team just doesn't hit. But on Tuesday night, they scored at least enough runs to earn the right to keep playing. 局外人不知道MW怎麼處理我們看不見的部分，不過在他執教生涯最重大的比賽沒能給球隊最好的贏球機會。雖然他做了些蠢決定，但打者手軟是事實。當你得不了分很難晉級。只是週二晚上，國民至少能拿到足夠延續系列賽的分數。 They didn't get that chance, though, because Matt Williams was unwilling to use his best pitchers in a tie game. In many ways, baseball is getting a lot smarter. In this particular way, baseball has a long way to go. 可惜他們沒能把握。因為MW不願讓他最好的投手在平手時上場。在許多方面MW越來越聰明，但就這方面他要學的可還多著呢。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.34.47.100 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Nationals/M.1412836583.A.3D1.html