[外電] Not a Rookie: Brad Bergesen
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Not a Rookie: Brad Bergesen
by John Sickels on Jul 3, 2009 3:25 PM EDT
Not a Rookie: Brad Bergesen
Brad Bergesen was drafted by the Orioles in the fourth round in 2004, out of
high school in Foothill, California. He showed a 90-95 MPH fastball in high
school, but his secondary pitches and command needed a lot of work, and he
needed to be bought away from the University of San Diego. The Orioles did
so, then sent him to the Appy League for his pro debut. He pitched six relief
innings, allowing five runs but fanning six with three walks. I put him in
the 2005 book as a Grade C prospect, noting his arm strength but also his
need for polish and experience.
Bergesen moved up to the New York-Penn League for 2005, going 1-3, 4.82 with
a 54/14 K/BB in 71 innings, 89 hits allowed. His walk rate as low, but
otherwise his performance was unimpressive. I rated him as a Grade C arm but
did not put him in the 2006 book due to space reasons. There are a lot of
guys in A-ball like this at any one time, and he didn't stand out
statistically or scouting-wise.
Promoted to the Sally League in 2006, Bergesen went 5-4, 4.27 with a 49/10
K/BB in 86 innings, allowing 97 hits. Again, his walk rate was very low, but
the K/IP and hit rates were not impressive. He was showing he could throw
strikes with his sinker, but his secondary pitches remained substandard.
Still a Grade C.
Bergesen began 2007 with Delmarva again, going 7-3, 2.19 with a 73/17 K/BB in
94 innings, 75 hits allowed. Scouts reported he still had the excellent
command, and his strikeout rate and hit rates were improved due to a better
changeup and slider. However, he went backwards after being moved to the
Carolina League, going 3-6, 5.75 in 10 starts with a 35/9 K/BB in 56 innings,
78 hits allowed. Again, the control was there, but the strikeouts and hits
slipped again. I still had him as a Grade C.
The turnaround came in 2008. He began at Frederick, posting a 2.08 ERA in 17
innings with a 15/6 K/BB. Promoted to Double-A, he showed that the
improvements with his slider and changeup were for real, going 15-6, 3.22
with a 72/27 K/BB in 148 innings, 143 hits. The strikeout rate was still low,
but scouting reports were positive.
In the book this year, I wrote that Bergesen's margin for error wasn't great,
but "he has a shot at developing into a workhorse inning-eater. . .with some
potential to pull a Nick Blackburn on us." I gave him a Grade C+ this year.
Bergesen is indeed pulling a Nick Blackburn, being 5-2, 3.53 in 14 starts for
the Orioles, with a 46/19 K/BB in 92 innings, 87 hits allowed.These ratios
are extremely similar to what Blackburn did in his surprise season for the
Twins last year:
Bergesen 2009 4.5 K/9 1.9 BB/9 8.5 H/9 1.16 WHIP 3.53 ERA
Blackburn 2008 4.5 K/9 1.8 BB/9 10.4 H/9 1.36 WHIP 4.05 ERA
The difference so far is that Bergesen has a lower hit rate this year
compared to Blackburn's last year, but everything else is a carbon copy.
Scouting-wise, Blackburn and Bergesen aren't exactly identical, as their
pitch/fx data shows: Here is Bergesen pitch/fx Here is Blackburn. Their
fastballs has similar movement but their other pitches work differently and
they use different areas of the strike zone.
Physicall, Blackburn is two inches taller and throws harder, his fastball
averaging 91 MPH as opposed to 89 for Bergesen. Bergesen gets more grounders
and has a lower home run allowed rate so far in his career. I still believe
that both pitchers have to prove they can succeed consistently; their
strikeout rates still concern me as a long-term indicator.
All that said, Bergesen has done very well this year, and as long as he
remains healthy he can be an effective strike-throwing inning-eater, a good
example of how a pitcher without piles of press clippings and a 97 MPH
fastball can sneak up on us if he has a feel for his craft. And the
statistical parallel to what Blackburn did last year is uncanny. My psychic
powers must have been working well when I wrote that comment.
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