Looking at the Rule 5 Draft
http://tinyurl.com/8z2y8r
Pretty much anyone reading this site knows that the Padres selected two
players in this years Rule 5 Draft; Everth Cabrera from the Rockies and Ivan
Nova from the Yankees. But what is the likely hood that either are wearing
Padre uniforms come opening day? And will they still be Padres come Oct 1st?
Let’s start with Everth Cabrera. Cabrera is 5′9〃, 170 lb, just turned 22
(11/17/86) and is from Nicaragua. In the past six months he was named as a
Sally League Mid and Postseason all star, as well as Baseball America Class A
all-star. And in fact he put up fairly impressive numbers, hitting
.284/.361/.399/.760 with 73 SB in 86 attempts. Of course the big thing to
look at is that the league was CLASS A (High A to be exact). The front
office (in particular DePo) has been praising this pick and jumping on the
comparisons between Cabrera and Furcal. Yes, both had great minor league
numbers (in particular SB), and yes both were claimed and made the jump from
High A to the majors, but for every Furcal there are about 20 Calix Crabbe’
s. Many people who hit well in High A do not hit well in AA let alone become
an all star like Furcal.
Now one thing is for sure and he has speed, and speed is something that the
Padres were severely lacking last year.
However, he struck out over 100 times (101) in less than 500 AB (479 AB) and
that is in A ball. What is going to happen when he is against the creme de
la creme in the majors? High A you have guys who think they can just throw a
fastball by everyone…the Majors you have Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and CC.
With a high K ratio in A ball, we can expect an even higher ratio in his
rookie campaign. Of course, if you can not make contact it’s hard to reach
base, which will make it hard for him to have an impact on the SD Padres.
That is not to say that by the end of the year or in a couple years the
ratio will decrease substantially, but what he does two years from now will
not matter if the Padres get rid of him. Can the Padres afford to have speed
with little production at the plate?
Another thing to look at is that most scouts see him projecting as a 2B and
not a shortstop. He has played 171 games at 2B compared to only 45 at SS.
This creates a problem for his stock as the Padres already have four guys
(Decker, Antonelli, Edgar, and Rodriguez) who can all play 2B, but only one
(LRod) who can play SS reasonably well. Both Antonelli and Decker are viewed
as good prospects (last year Antonelli was viewed as the top 2B prospect in
ALL of the minors). So the Padres do not have a need for another 2B who can
not play short. A fellow blogger (websoulsurfer) begged this question in
addition to making a comparison to Devi Cruz in lieu of Furcal, and also
stated that Cabrera had a dismal fielding % of .946. DePodesta actually made
a comment about this, stating that Furcal played nearly as many games at 2b
(114) to SS (117) in the minors and that Furcal had a lower fielding % (.932)
than Cabrera. One of the things he fails to mention, though, is that Cabrera
doesn’t have nearly the range or arm that Furcal had that enabled him to
stay at SS and become the great SS that Furcal is today.
All that being said, I think Cabrera does have a chance to become the next
Furcal, HOWEVER, we will not really see any of that this year. Do the Padre
have the patience to stay with Cabrera through the “growth phase” because
of what they think his potential will develop into? If it was any other year
I would say no (including last year when they cut Crabbe). This year the
Padres have 0 in payroll, and are going as young and cheap as possible, so
knowing that I think that Cabrera will remain a Padre.
Ivan Nova also spent last season in High A, was 21 (turns 22 in Jan.) and is
from Central America (Dominican). Earlier in the blog I stated that in High
A there are still a lot of pitchers who think they can just blow 1 or 2
pitches past everyone….well meet Ivan Nova. As a Yankee prospect, he had
some of the best stuff in the organizaton, yet he put up ERA’s of 4.98 and
4.36 and WHIP of 1.53 and 1.44 over the last 2 years (A and High A). None of
those numbers indicate future big leaguer. But with his fastball which
normally sits in the low 90’s, an above average change and curve and an
improving sinking fastball, scouts think he has the potential of being a #3
starter.
While he was a starter throughout his minor league career, unless he puts up
incredible numbers he will not have a spot in the Padres rotation. This
means if he makes the team it will be as one of the seven relievers.
However, as of right now the Padres have Bell, Meredith, Worrell, and
Hampson; each of whom are fairly good locks. Then if (when) the Padres
resign Hoffman that will be the 5th spot. That then leaves Nova to compete
with Thatcher, Patterson, Guevera, Britton, and any other reliever or starter
(possibly Baek) for the final two bullpen spots.
Personally, I think that if he pitches adequately he will make the club, and
if he does he will remain a Padre for most (if not all) the year. A lot
depends on a) how well Nova does in ST and the regular season and b) how
confident the Padres are in the other 6 relievers to bring back the former
glory that was the Padre pen. Remember the Padres relief corps had an ERA of
3.45 (06′) 3.06 (07′) which then became 4.45 in 2008. The cast of
characters have not changed all that much, but the Padres think that another
year will bring a return to norm. As much as I like Nova, with the recent
acquisition of Britton (also from the Yankees) and the (what I consider)
probable resigning of Hoffman, I do not think we will see Nova come opening
day. Like everyone invited to spring training he has a chance, but I think
the Padres will need all the help it can get if it hopes to compete in 2009.
The pen might be the biggest difference between a “competitive team” and
the 2008 SD Padres, so with that being said….Say “Bye Bye” to Nova.
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