Top 10 First-Year Player Draft projection
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Mayo predicts how the first round may unfold in 2007
By Jonathan Mayo / MLB.com
1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt University
The Devil Rays can say they haven't made a decision yet all they want. I
think the entire baseball world would be shocked if they didn't take Price
with the No. 1 pick. Vandy's Friday starter, Price has done nothing to knock
his status as the consensus top player in this year's draft class. Despite a
less-than-stellar start this past Friday, the southpaw is 9-0 with a 2.91 ERA
on the year. In 105 1/3 innings, he's allowed just 80 hits, walked 26 and
struck out 149. He's the kind of arm that could move quickly to the big
leagues, just what the Rays need.
2. Kansas City Royals: Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep (N.J.)
After Price at No. 1, things get a little murky, with people unsure of what
the Royals will do from a financial perspective with this pick. If the last
two years are any indication -- KC took Luke Hochevar in 2006 and Alex Gordon
the year before that -- this won't be a signability pick. It'll be a "best
guy on the board" pick, even if it's a Scott Boras-advised player, as
Hochevar was a year ago. Now, there could be some debate over who that is,
but for the Royals and many others, it's Porcello (a Boras guy), who tossed a
perfect game over the weekend to help his cause.
3. Chicago Cubs: Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS (Calif.)
All indications are that the Cubs are looking for a bat here, and it seemed
like Matt Wieters would be a good fit. But when you hear something over and
over, eventually it sinks in. And what I've been hearing is that the Cubs
really like Josh Vitters, the top high school bat in the draft class. He's a
rare breed: a prepster who entered the season with all eyes on him and
actually lived up to that hype, showing the ability to hit for average and
power. And he did all of that while battling with a bout of pneumonia. If the
Cubs decide to shift gears and go with an arm, they are fond of Indiana
prepster Jarrod Parker.
4. Pittsurgh Pirates: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson University
In a perfect world for the Pirates, the Cubs will take Wieters or Jarrod
Parker or anyone not named Vitters, because that's who they covet with this
pick. Assuming he's gone, though, it's still very unclear who the Pirates
would take instead. They'd like a hitter and GM Dave Littlefield has seen
Wieters play. While an advanced college catcher would be nice, there's no
reason to indicate the organization would want to get involved with a Boras
client. They'd been following Clemson closer-turned-starter Daniel Moskos
fairly closely and while he's been inconsistent as Clemson's Friday starter,
he's still in the Pirates' mix. Don't be surprised, though, if a latecomer
jumps into this conversation in the coming weeks.
5. Baltimore Orioles: Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
The word is that the Orioles will take the best college arm on their board.
That could be any of a number of pitchers. There have been rumors that
they're looking to make a big splash with a more expensive pick, meaning an
Andrew Brackman type of pick. But they're not going to do that just for the
sake of doing it and Brackman, while possessing great raw stuff, has been
inconsistent. In the end, it may come down to the two top college lefties in
Detwiler and Moskos. With Moskos going at No. 4 in this projection, that
leaves Detwiler, who many would take ahead of Moskos anyway. Detwiler has
some detractors because of a lack of physicality, but he's put up results
fairly consistently and just had an eight-inning, 14-strikeout performance
last weekend.
6. Washington Nationals: Phillippe Aumont, Ecole Du Versant Gatineau, Quebec
What happens with this pick could come down to who is actually pulling the
trigger in the draft room. Assistant GM and VP of baseball operations Mike
Rizzo, scouting director Dana Brown and GM Jim Bowden might all have
differing philosophies when it comes to the type of player they'd consider
for this pick. Can they come to a consensus? They like Detwiler, but in this
scenario, the lefty is off the board. They could go with someone like
Brackman, especially consiering Rizzo's ability to deal with Boras in the
past. For that reason, if Max Scherzer re-enters the draft, he would be a
definite possibility here. Rizzo also has had success drafting college bats,
so if Wieters is around, they could go in that direction. The Nats took a
high school bat with their first pick last year and there was some talk they
liked another Boras client in Mike Moustakas. They also took a high school
arm in last year's first round and Bowden was in Ottawa this past Sunday to
see Aumont. The other decision-makers have seen him, as well. Aumont's stock
has been rising with each outing he makes, including the one Bowden witnessed
during which the right-hander topped out at 98 mph.
7. Milwaukee Brewers: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS (Ind.)
This one is really interesting. In past years, prognosticators could more or
less skip over the high-priced, perhaps over-slotted type players for the
Brewers because they wouldn't open the checkbook for them. That may be
changing. The new ownership may be willing to spend more on this pick,
especially since the Brewers don't have a second-round selection. There's
talk they really like Moustakas' bat and they certainly wouldn't shy away
from him because of a perceived lack of defensive ability (see Fielder,
Prince, class of 2002). But his perceived bonus demands may be too much even
for a team that's willing to spend more. If Wieters slides this far --
something they may not have thought possible not long ago -- they'd probably
have to take a look at him. If they want a college arm, there's always
Brackman. That being said, they have shown a fondness for power right-handed
arms, regardless of size. Case in point: Jeremy Jeffress last year. This year
it could be Parker, who rose up the charts with his performance this spring
as much as any player in the draft pool. There are some who are concerned
that his size (6-foot-1, 175 pounds) will lead to durability problems, the
age-old worry about undersized righties. But some scouts think Parker is
every bit as good as Porcello, just four inches shorter.
8. Colorado Rockies: Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
The two players often mentioned as the ones the Rockies are interested in the
most -- Vitters and Detwiler -- are both gone in this projection. I think
they'd love to find a pitcher here, but it's doubtful they'd go the Brackman
route and it's difficult to find another arm that would fit. To be honest,
neither does Dominguez, considering the Rockies' depth at the corner infield
positions. But they may look at their board and see Dominguez with his
above-average hitting ability and his Gold Glove-caliber defense and not be
able to pass him up. He's a high schooler, so they can figure out how he,
Garrett Atkins and Ian Stewart all fit at a later date.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mike Moustakas, SS/3B, Chatsworth HS (Calif.)
A great deal depends on what happens with Scherzer. If the Diamondbacks sign
him, that could mean they'd not be as interested in college pitching as some
think they are. If they don't sign him, that could push one of the
aforementioned names down to them. They've been watching Aumont closely, for
instance, and should he fall, that could be the direction they go in. If they
still wanted to go for a college arm, there's still Brackman, but they also
like Moustakas' bat a great deal and they have the financial ability to deal
with him if they so choose. He's played shortstop in high school because of
Dominguez, but some see him as a third baseman or maybe even as a catcher. It
may be a gamble to take a player without a true defensive home for the kind
of money he's reportedly looking for, but his bat certainly will play.
10. San Francisco Giants: Andrew Brackman, RHP, North Carolina State
The big guy finally finds a home. The Giants do have three first-round picks,
so it will be very intersting to see how they go about picking and signing
those selections. They generally scout players based on their abilities only
and don't shy away from signability concerns. Brackman came into the season
as one of the top couple of arms in the draft and the raw stuff has been
there. But the performance has not. Some think that perhaps he's experiencing
a dead-arm period based on the fact that the former two-sport star has never
thrown this many innings in a season. How he recovers and bounces back from
that could determine his ultimate draft position, but he's definitely in the
Giants' conversation.
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