[情報] College corner infielders, relievers represent strength
http://tinyurl.com/6l597k
By Keith Law
Scouts Inc.
(Archive)
Updated: May 31, 2008, 2:55 PM ET
Compared to recent drafts -- from the superstar-laden 2005 first round (Ryan
Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman), to the
Evan Longoria-Clayton Kershaw-Tim Lincecum top 10 in 2006, to last year's high
school pitcher bonanza -- the pool of top-shelf talent in 2008 is subpar.
This year's crop better resembles 2004's low-upside college-centric first round
. If you want to look at the glass as half-empty, this year's first round has
more than a few things in common with the 2000 first round, which has produced
three stars in Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley and Adam Wainwright, but which on
the whole has been a dud. None of the 13 picks between Gonzalez (No. 1 overall)
and Utley (No. 15) from that 2000 draft has appeared in a big league game this
season, and eight of them have never appeared in the majors.
Corner-ing the market
The draft's top tier of talent is deepest in an unsexy area -- college corner
infielders. That category of player has typically yielded high returns -- from
past names like Mark Teixeira, Will Clark and Rafael Palmeiro to more recent
picks including Gordon, Zimmerman, Braun and Nick Swisher -- but doesn't fit
the standard first-round profile of players who offer a wide set of plus tools
or pitchers with big fastballs and good breaking balls.
The 2008 draft should see three college corner infielders go in the top 10
picks (South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak, Miami first baseman Yonder
Alonso and Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez). All three have plus raw
power; Smoak is a switch-hitter who plays great defense, while Alonso has an
outstanding eye at the plate, and Alvarez offers the promise of greater value
relative to position. The first round should also include Cal first baseman
David Cooper and Wichita State third baseman Conor Gillaspie, while South
Carolina third baseman James Darnell and Wake Forest first baseman Allen
Dykstra should be early selections. None offers the upside of the front three,
but all project as average big leaguers.
Relief efforts
It's a very strong year for college relievers, which is good news for teams
looking to spend a top pick on a now player who can help them in 2008 or, at
worst, in 2009, but bad news for teams in the latter half of the first round
hoping to land an impact long-term prospect. The crop is led by two righties,
TCU's Andrew Cashner and Georgia's Josh Fields, who both sit in the 95-97 mph
range with plus breaking balls, as well as Mississippi State's Aaron
Weatherford, whose splitter may be the best swing-and-miss pitch in the draft.
Weatherford's strikeout rate, on a per inning and per batter faced basis, is
actually ahead of that of Ryan Wagner, the 13th overall pick in 2003 out of
Houston who reached the big leagues that summer.
Behind that troika sits a long list of college relievers and closers with
somewhat lower upsides but who still offer that same quick-to-the-big-leagues
potential. Arizona's Daniel Schlereth, son of my colleague Mark Schlereth, has
exploded up draft boards in the last three weeks, as his velocity has jumped
into the mid-90s, and at times he's had two pitches that would grade out at 65
or better on the 20-80 scale. Purdue's Josh Lindblom followed up a strong
Cape Cod League performance with a dominant run through the Big Ten this spring
, boasting a very sharp curveball, above-average velocity, and great control.
Rice's Bryan Price came out of nowhere after a near-8 ERA in 2007, and could
either move quickly as a closer or be converted to a starting role in pro ball.
The parade should continue with Kyle Weiland (Notre Dame), Bryan Shaw (Long
Beach State), and Zach Stewart (Texas Tech). And that's without considering
Scott Green, the enigmatic Kentucky pitcher who has touched 96 this spring but
doesn't show the same stuff from one outing to the next; or Brett Jacobson
(Vanderbilt), who has touched 98 but doesn't pitch in critical situations
because his command is poor.
That depth in college relievers is necessary to balance out the scarcity of
top-end high school arms. The 2007 draft's first round featured eight high
school pitchers and 17 high school players in total, both the highest since the
2000 first round, but this year's top round may look more like those of 2003
and 2005, with just three prep arms taken in each (Chad Billingsley, Jeff
Allison, and John Danks in 2003, and Chris Volstad, Aaron Thompson, and Mark
Pawelek in 2005). Only two high school pitchers are very likely to go in the
first 30 picks: Ethan Martin from Toccoa, Ga., and two-way star Aaron Hicks
from Long Beach, Calif., with a handful of others vying to go in the final
third of the round.
Weak prep arms
What's lacking in this year's high school pitching class is arm strength. There
are very few high school seniors this year who consistently work in the mid-90s
, and only Martin and Hicks have that in combination with other positive
attributes -- both are athletic two-way players with good breaking balls -- to
solidify themselves as first-rounders. They could be joined by Gerrit Cole, a
very hard-throwing right-hander from Orange, Calif., who reportedly hit triple
digits in a playoff outing, but whose signability is questionable between his
advisor (Scott Boras) and college commitment (UCLA).
The best of the rest include players with good command and secondary stuff but
average fastballs, like shortstop/right-handed pitcher (and Tennessee
quarterback recruit) Casey Kelly of Sarasota, Fla.,; pitchers who've seen their
stuff and stock slip slightly this spring, like Tim Melville of Wentzville, Mo.
; or one-pitch guys with other question marks, like Jake Odorizzi of Highland,
Ill., and Jason Knapp of Annandale, N.J.
Compared that to last year's class, which ran deep with high-ceiling prep arms
-- from the more polished Rick Porcello and Jarrod Parker -- either of whom
would comfortably be the best in this class -- to raw but still talented Chris
Withrow and Madison Bumgarner to two-way player Michael Main. Last year, teams
drafting in the last half of the first round knew they'd have their pick of
hard-throwing teenaged pitchers with second pitches and/or physical projection;
this year, the same teams are preparing to be disappointed with the high school
pool that's going to reach them.
Sign of the times
Compounding the problem is the number of "signability" players from the 2005
draft who went to school but didn't improve their draft stock in the three
years they were gone. Three of the top players in this draft were solid
prospects out of high school, with Pedro Alvarez and Justin Smoak both looking
for seven-figure bonuses in 2005 but likely to more than double that this year.
But Justin Bristow (East Carolina) and Jordan Danks (Texas) had chances to go
in the first round in 2005, and will be lucky to be first-day drafts this year,
and David Adams (Virginia), Brett Jacobson, and Zach Putnam (Michigan) also
lost ground in the three years they spent in school. Smoak's college teammate,
Reese Havens, was in the latter group until he surged offensively this year.
While he may not get first-round money, he should go before the second round
starts. Signability players who slip in the draft and end up in college can
provide a solid layer of impact talent in the draft three years down the road,
but the 2005 crop proved a mixed bag.
The most interesting subplot in this year's draft will be whether the slotting
system, already on life support, collapses entirely. "Slotting" is the
informally-enforced practice by the commissioner's office of telling teams what
they should pay their top picks in the draft. The number is determined not by
player quality, but by the pick number. Just as the draft itself was instituted
to reduce the amount of money the industry was giving to amateur players, the
slotting system (not enforced by formal punishment for violators) was designed
to stem the rapid growth in amateur bonuses in the 1990s, and even to roll
those bonuses back. Certain teams have broken with these recommendations,
particularly to sign players advised by Boras, but by and large, teams played
ball with Bud Selig and the system's overseer, Frank Coonelly, who's now the
Pirates' team president.
Last year, the commissioner's office sent out slot "recommendations" that were
about 10 percent below the 2006 figures, and the system snapped. By my estimate
, 12 players received bonuses over the 2007 slot figures, although many of them
received the slot figures for the equivalent pick in the 2006 draft. Tampa Bay,
Baltimore, Detroit, the Cubs, Kansas City, and the Yankees all exceeded their
slot recommendations by significant numbers. The Yankees and Red Sox both spent
heavily in later rounds of the draft, signing three and five players
respectively over the commissioner's round recommendations after the fourth
round, while Detroit and Baltimore each splurged on a first-round talent in the
fifth round. The more that teams break the system, the more it will embolden
agents (other than Boras, who seems to look upon the slotting system as
something that other people have to worry about) to demand more money for their
clients than the system offers.
Aaron Crow and Yonder Alonso are both rumored to be looking for money well over
any slot recommendation, and a wide range of high school prospects, including
every Vanderbilt recruit, are also looking for first-round money to buy them
away from college. Combine the increased resolve of certain agents with the
ire of teams that have walked in lockstep with the commissioner's office only
to see premium players make their way to the teams that disobeyed the edicts
and a new sheriff responsible for enforcement (Dan Halem, the replacement for
Coonelly), and you have a powder keg waiting for someone to light the match.
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