Rule 5: Six Players to Target
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The Rule 5 Draft affords opportunities each year to uncover hidden gems mixed
in among a sea of under-developed, or under-utilized, minor league talent.
This year’s class contains several interesting options, six of which we’ll
examine here today. The key to succeeding in this draft is to distinguish as
best you can between players who have not “clicked” yet, and players who
are most likely stuck in the AAAA category – talented enough to progress
through the minors, but in possession of fatal enough flaws to limit any
likelihood of significant Major League production. An example of the latter
would be a player like Alan Horne (AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, New York (A))
whose long arm action and inconsistent release point the Yankees have been
unable to correct despite focusing on cleaning-up the aspect of his delivery.
Chris Lubanski is another example, though his shortcomings are generally of
his own doing in that he has added so much size and strength to his frame
that he has lost his ability to effectively patrol the outfield.
Unfortunately, this hasn’t translated to a significant amount of power in
his offensive game, in essence producing a player whose offensive and
defensive limitations make him unlikely to contribute enough on either end at
the Major League level. So, what sort of player does still have Major League
potential?
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Jordan Brown | Stats | Organization – Cleveland
6-0 / 210 | Age – 25 | 1B | B/T – L/L | Drafted – 2005 (R4) | University
of Arizona
Brown’s biggest hole offensively is his bat speed, which limits his power.
His plate discipline and pitch-ID are both above-average, helping him to post
a career MiL OBP of 372, though this past season at AAA Buffalo he saw this
number dip to 337. He does an impressive job of going with the pitch, showing
an advanced ability to spray the ball to all fields, and left field in
particular. It’s unlikely he’ll ever hit for much power, but he could
provide good on-base skills and contact skills while providing adequate
defense at first base. His bat speed will limit his everyday usefulness, but
it’s conceivable he can carve-out a Major League career with his skill set.
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Chuck Lofgren | Stats | Organization – Cleveland
6-4 / 200 | Age – 22 | LHP | B/T – L/L | Drafted – 2004 (R4) | San Mateo
HS (CA)
Lofgren say his stock rise dramatically after a breakout campaign in 2006,
though he has hit a wall at AA/AAA over the past two seasons. As opposed to
Alan Horne (discussed above), however, Lofgren presents a good example of a
starter whose short-comings appear to be correctable. He has fallen out of
his previously repeatable delivery, getting his lower-half out in front and
limiting his ability to command his fastball. This limits the extent to which
his above-average slider, solid average curveball and fringe-average changeup
can play, as none but the slider are true "out" pitches. Lofgren has been
highly touted by the Indians for his make-up, though his frustration became
more an more apparent this past season. He was shifted to the bullpen with
mixed results, though it may benefit him moving forward. He could be utilized
as a situational lefty for 2009, giving him an opportunity to simplify his
delivery. If he’s able to regain his command, Lofgren could still be a
capable back-end starter, though his downward plane and slider with good
depth could effectively produce groundballs as a lefty in the pen.
===============================================================================
James Skelton | Stats | Organization – Detroit
5-11 / 165 | Age – 23 | C | B/T – L/R | Drafted – 2004 (R14) | West Covina
HS (CA)
Skelton’s critics argue that he does not have the build of an everyday
catcher, making it unlikely he can hold-up over the course of a long Major
League season. His advocates, however, will point to his advanced strike zone
command, and an impressive ability to square-up and take pitches the other
way with authority. He is undersized and will never hit for much power,
limiting his usefulness at 1B or DH, though his on-base skills and
left-handed bat should both help him carve-out some sort of Major League
career. He has below-average speed, limiting his effectiveness in the
outfield. Skelton fits best as a back-up catcher that can hit in the
bottom-third of a Major League order. His receiving skills are still fringy,
but he makes the most of his average arm with a good transfer and release,
and he has shown good carry and accuracy on his throws to the tune of a 38%
caught-stealing rate. He could be an interesting option as a third-catcher
and could eventually serve as a solid back-up.
===============================================================================
Donald Veal | Stats | Organization – Chicago (N)
6-4 / 230 | Age – 24 | LHP | B/T – L/L | Drafted – 2005 (R2) | Prima CC
(AZ)
After a tumultuous 2008 offseason during which Veal attended to personal
matters, Veal continued to miss bats and walk batters in 2008. He has an
imposing presence on the mound, and keeps hitters off-balance with a
deceptive delivery that includes a high leg kick and hidden arm slot. Veal is
an excellent Rule 5 target, so long as the drafting team is willing to
finally do what Chicago refused – move Veal to the pen. The mid-rotation
upside of Veal and big arm has provided the Cubs too much to dream on, and as
a result they have done Veal the disservice of not putting him in the best
position to succeed. Out of the stretch, his motion is much more controlled
and the results are stunning. Out of the wind-up, Veal posted a 2.06 WHIP,
including 6.09 BB/9 and a .310 BAA. From the stretch, however, batters hit
just .236 against him, and he dropped his BB/9 rate to 3.84. His strikeout
rate dips by 1.5 SO/9, but it’s an easy tradeoff. Veal could potentially be
an effective lefty-reliever right now, and should be on the short-list for
any team. He could top-out as a lefty set-up man or multi-inning swing man,
though he would work best as a lefty-specialist where could take full
advantage of his L/R splits (.221 BAA vs. LH / .290 BAA vs. RH in 2008).
===============================================================================
Eduardo Morlan | Stats | Organization – Tampa Bay
6-2 / 210 | Age – 22 | RHP | B/T – R/R | Drafted – 2004 (R3) | Miami HS
(FL)
Morlan looks to have at least taken a big step towards turning the corner at
AA Montgomery in 2008. Through the first four years of his professional
career, Morlan has struggled to command his low- to mid-90s fastball and
mid-90 slider, resulting in a high BB/9 rate. While his high strikeout rate
has helped him to work out of these jams, he often reached his pitch counts
too early in ball games and accordingly was shifted to the pen by Minnesota
in 2007. After coming over to Tampa in the Garza/Young swap, Morlan stayed in
the pen, maintained his strikeout rate (8.5 SO/9) but was also showed solid
command, posting a 2.87 BB/9 rate, down from 3.45 in his previous four
seasons. His fastball and 2-plane slider are both plus-offerings, and he
could provide quality innings in the back-end of a Major League pen.
===============================================================================
Daniel Mayora | Stats | Organization – Colorado
5-11 / 160 | Age – 23 | 2B | B/T – R/R | Signed – 2003 | Venezuela
Mayora finds himself as a Rule 5 draftee more as a result of the
middle-infield depth in the Rockies’s system than because of any
short-coming of his own. The diminutive second-baseman started his career as
a shortstop and slid over to second after the Rockies brought in high-ceiling
prospects Chris Nelson and Hector Gomez in 2004. Mayora handled the switch
with little trouble, displaying shortstop-quality range to both sides and a
solid arm. He also showed no trouble handling the double-play pivots from the
other side. Offensively, Mayora continues to be very solid but not
eye-popping, posting a career Minor League line of 297/261/441 through HiA.
While he shows the potential for above-average pop for a middle-infielder, he
would be best served to stick with a gap-to-gap power approach, which keeps
his swing short and increases his ability to consistently square-up. His
strikezone command is improving but still a work-in-progress. The Rockies may
have done him a disservice by not challenging him at AA, though the sheer
number of SS/2B in the Colorado system was bound to produce Rule 5
casualties, eventually. The biggest hurdle for any team selecting Mayora will
be jumping him from HiA to the Majors, though defensively he should be able
to hold his own. For a team willing to be patient with his likely
below-average 2009 production, Mayora could provide above-average second base
defense or average shortstop defense in the future, paired with average
offensive production.
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