[情報] Sickels's Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2009
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Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too
worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of
the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you
are looking for.
1) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Grade B+: Love the walks, strong power, but sharp
platoon split keeps him from higher grade at this time.
2) Todd Frazier, INF, Grade B: I like him. A nice solid hitter, maybe not a
star, but should be productive. Only question is defense.
3) Chris Valaika, SS, Grade B: I like him, too. Looks like a fine hitter,
even without strong plate discipline. Probably more a 2B than SS.
4) Neftali Soto, 3B, Grade B: Very impressed with his long-term potential.
Could use more patience, but strikeout rate isn't bad and he's very young.
5) Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-: Where did the power go? Other skills are coming
along nicely.
6) Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade B-: Very impressive arm, could be a closer
perhaps.
7) Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B-: Strong arm, command issues, could move fast
in the pen. Maybe a C+?
8) Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B-: Might downgrade to C+. Very young, tons of
potential, command and injury issues. This is one of my 「intuition guys」
though.
9) Daryl Thompson, RHP, Grade C+: He's a solid pitcher if he can stay
healthy, a big if. I've liked him since I shadow-drafted him out of high
school.
10) Juan Francisco, 3B, Grade C+: Enormous power potential, very young, but
dismal discipline. Did reduce strikeouts last year.
11) Ramon Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 8 depending on what
you want to emphasize. Small right-hander with a strong arm, took step
forward in 』08.
12) Chris Dickerson, OF, Grade C+: Tremendous tools. He's more a .250 hitter
than a .300 guy, but with speed, power, and defense. Older prospect, which
limits his grade.
13) Matt Maloney, LHP, Grade C+: Another guy I have liked for awhile, could
be a decent strike-throwing fourth starter.
14) Chris Heisey, OF, Grade C+: Like the speed, gets on base, could be solid
fourth outfielder.
15) Sean Henry, OF, Grade C+: A bit less speed than Heisey, but with more pop.
16) Dan Dorn, OF, Grade C+: Kills right-handers, could be a solid platoon bat.
17) Dallas Buck, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect acquired from Arizona, could
surprise now that he's further away from Tommy John.
18) Robert Manuel, RHP, Grade C+: One of several guys who could slot in
nicely as a middle reliever.
19) Carlos Fisher, RHP, Grade C: Considered C+, another potential relief arm
with ability.
20) Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Grade C: Too young and raw to rank higher in my
system. Need to see some numbers first.
21) Juan Duran, OF, Grade C: Too young and raw to rank higher in my system.
Need to see some numbers first.
Others include Alex Buchholz, Scott Carroll, Zach Cozart, Ramon Geronimo,
Ryan Hanigan, Danny Ray Herrera, Jeremy Horst (a sleeper!!), Ben Jukich, Sam
Lecure, Devin Mesoraco, Adam Rosales, Juan Carlos Sulbaran, Justin Tuner,
Pedro 「Don't call me Frank」 Viola, Sean Watson, and Byron Wiley.
If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your
case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above
will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF:
The Reds graduated a lot of talent last year, and while things have
thinned at the top, there is more depth in this system than is commonly
realized. They have an interesting mix of polished college-type bats (Alonso,
Frazier, Valaika), along with toolsy Latin American guys at the lower levels.
While they could use some more impact arms, they have several pitchers who
look like they will provide bullpen depth down the line. There's quite a bit
of C+ type talent here and guys who could be good role players.
Ranking players like Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran is difficult. I have
usually not included many guys like that in the book until they hit North
America, but will stick more in this year. I know what the scouting reports
say on these players, and you will no doubt see them ranked much higher in
other sources. But so many of the uber-tools guys fail completely that I just
can't go higher on these grades until we get something objective to examine.
Even North American high school kids are easier to grade since scouts can
often see them in showcase competition and get better reads on their ability.
Remember what Grade C means: 「These are guys who have something positive
going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just
too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys,
especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars.」
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