Arizona Fall League Wrapup
http://tinyurl.com/5h8sja
Presented this week is the first of two columns looking at what's in store
for the prospects of the Arizona Fall League.
2008 Arizona Fall League Wrapup (All ages as of Opening Day 2009)
Mesa Solar Sox
Andrew Carpenter - RHP Phillies - DOB: 05/18/85
3-3, 2.92 ERA, 44 H, 32/9 K/BB in 52 1/3 IP (A+ Clearwater)
6-8, 5.67 ERA, 114 H, 69/30 K/BB in 93 2/3 IP (AA Reading)
0-1, 2.57 ERA, 6 H, 5/3 K/BB in 7 IP (AAA Lehigh Valley)
0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 H, 1/1 K/BB in 1 IP (Philadelphia)
1-2, 5.88 ERA, 29 H, 21/9 K/BB in 26 IP (AFL)
The Phillies believed Carpenter might jump from Double-A to the majors last
season after he went 17-6 with a 3.20 ERA for Single-A Clearwater in 2007,
and, technically, that's what he did. However, he ended the minor league
season 9-12 with a 4.59 ERA at three levels, with most of his success coming
back at Clearwater, and his stint in the majors lasted all of one inning.
Sort of a poor man's Joe Blanton, Carpenter mixes his pitches well, but he
has a fairly mediocre arsenal. His fastball generally rests in the 89-91 mph
range, and his slider is his best secondary pitch. If his splitter becomes
more of a strikeout pitch, he could have a future as a No. 4 starter. He'll
likely open a second straight season at Double-A Reading in 2009.
Scott Cousins - OF Marlins - DOB: 01/22/85
.000/.000/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 5/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 6 AB (R GCL Marlins)
.304/.370/.513, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 47/20 K/BB, 11 SB in 191 AB (A+ Jupiter)
.264/.350/.396, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 28/10 K/BB, 4 SB in 91 AB (AA Carolina)
.297/.385/.624, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 28/14 K/BB, 3 SB in 101 AB (AFL)
Cousins was quite raw for a college player coming out of the University of
San Francisco in 2006, but he has tools aplenty and he's put up decent
numbers so far. The Marlins challenged him for the first time by sending him
to the AFL, and he responded by leading the league with 33 RBI. He also
displayed an above average walk rate for the first time. Cousins is a true
right fielder with an outstanding arm, and he might yet develop 25-homer
power. He's probably not ever going to hit for remarkable averages. The
impressive showing in Arizona opens up the possibility that he'll log some
major league time next year, though he's still due to start off in Double-A.
Since he is entering his age-24 season and he has a big-time power hitter
behind him in Mike Stanton, he can't afford any off years.
Jason Donald - SS Phillies - DOB: 09/04/84
.307/.391/.497, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 86/47 K/BB, 11 SB in 362 AB (AA Reading)
.407/.476/.747, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 25/11 K/BB, 1 SB in 91 AB (AFL)
A fine player as a three-year starter at Arizona, Donald nonetheless lasted
into the third round of the 2006 draft because of a lack of power. The
scouting community still wasn't taking him particularly seriously after he
hit .304/.395/.473 for two A-ball teams in his first full pro season, with
Baseball America ranking him 15th in a shallow Philadelphia farm system.
Donald, though, has never done anything to justify being saddled with a
utilityman tag. He posted an 889 OPS in his first year in Double-A and was
Team USA's best player in the Olympics, going 8-for-21 with a homer and five
walks. He then went and finished second in the AFL in both average and OPS.
Donald is still a full-time shortstop at the moment, but he projects best at
second base. Of course, he's blocked at both positions in Philly, but he
could do just fine as a replacement in the early going if Chase Utley's hip
surgery sidelines him. In a best-case scenario, he'd do so well there that
the Phillies would have no choice but to try him as their regular third
baseman later on. Given 500 at-bats, he could hit .270 with 15-18 homers and
75 RBI. However, he's probably destined to spend most of the year in Triple-A.
Casey Fien - RHP Tigers - DOB: 10/21/83
3-3, 12 Sv, 2.96 ERA, 38 H, 42/12 K/BB in 45 2/3 IP (AA Erie)
2-0, 1 Sv, 2.40 ERA, 14 H, 17/4 K/BB in 15 IP (AAA Toledo)
2-0, 2 Sv, 1.84 ERA, 13 H, 15/0 K/BB in 14 2/3 IP (AFL)
Fien never got the call last year while the Tigers were dealing with bullpen
troubles, but he seems ready. The 2006 20th-round pick possesses excellent
command of a 92-94 mph fastball and a quality slider. He's an extreme flyball
pitcher and he figures to have trouble against left-handed hitters, but since
he can strike out right-handed batters and he doesn't walk anyone -- he went
14 2/3 innings in the AFL without issuing a single free pass -- he'll likely
post solid ERAs if used correctly. He'll even be a sleeper candidate for
saves if the Tigers go cheap in their attempt to fill the closer's role.
Tyler Flowers - C Braves - DOB: 01/24/86
.288/.427/.494, 17 HR, 88 RBI, 102/98 K/BB, 8 SB in 413 AB (A+ Myrtle Beach)
.387/.460/.973, 12 HR, 23 RBI, 22/10 K/BB, 0 SB in 75 AB (AFL)
It's too bad he's probably not a catcher. Flowers tested positive for PEDs in
2006 and totaled 12 homers in 106 games in low-A ball in 2007, but the Braves
still liked his power potential, and he made everyone take notice when he
smacked 12 homers in just 75 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League after a nice
season at Myrtle Beach in 2008. The former 33rd-round pick would seem to have
legitimate 30-homer potential, and he also showed great on-base skills in the
Carolina League. Defense is a problem. Flowers has a slightly below average
arm and struggles to block balls in the dirt. He might be able to cut it as a
first baseman if he has to move, but the Braves think fellow prospect Freddie
Freeman is their long-term answer there. It's possible that Flowers will turn
into trade bait. He could potentially go to All-Star Games if he lasts behind
the plate.
Tommy Hanson - RHP Braves - DOB: 08/28/86
3-1, 0.90 ERA, 15 H, 49/11 K/BB in 40 IP (A+ Myrtle Beach)
8-4, 3.03 ERA, 70 H, 114/41 K/BB in 98 IP (AA Mississippi)
5-0, 0.63 ERA, 10 H, 49/7 K/BB in 28 2/3 IP (AFL)
While he was hardly a slouch in 2007 -- he racked up 50 more strikeouts than
hits allowed for his two A-ball teams -- Hanson didn't rise to prominence
until last season. He opened the year with a 28-inning scoreless streak at
Myrtle Beach and later had a 14-strikeout no-hitter for Double-A Mississippi.
However, it still wasn't until the fall that he took his rightful place among
the game's elite pitching prospects. Able to go all out while never having to
throw more than five innings at a time, he struck out 49 and allowed just 10
hits in 28 2/3 innings. Those kinds of numbers probably won't carry over when
he returns to throwing 100 pitches at a time next year. His fastball, which
touched 95-96 mph in the fall, typically averages closer to 92 mph. Hanson
does have a great curve and an improved change. A future as a No. 2 starter
is a possibility. The Braves won't want to have room for him in their Opening
Day rotation, but he should be their top alternative once the season starts.
Jeff Larish - 1B/3B Tigers - DOB: 10/11/82
.250/.341/.477, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 109/50 K/BB, 0 SB in 384 AB (AAA Toledo)
.260/.306/.375, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 34/7 K/BB, 2 SB in 104 AB (Detroit)
.331/.410/.548, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 25/18 K/BB, 0 SB in 124 AB (AFL)
While Dustin Pedroia was likely the team's best player all along, Larish was
Arizona State's star in the early part of the decade, hitting as many as 23
homers in a season. Because he spent four years in school, the Tigers haven't
been shy about pushing him through the system since making him a fifth-round
pick. He's hit well, but never dominated the often younger competition he's
faced. The raw power is definitely there. However, Larish probably won't ever
do well enough against lefties to hold down a full-time job in the majors,
and because of his odd stance, many question just how effective he'll be
against righties. The Tigers have tried him at third base in an effort to get
him some playing time, and he started at the position regularly while hitting
.331/.410/.548 in the AFL. However, first base is where he belongs. It will
take an injury, most likely to Gary Sheffield, to prevent Larish from being
sent down at the end of the spring. He could end up with 300 at-bats and a
dozen homers.
Lou Marson - C Phillies - DOB: 06/26/86
.314/.433/.416, 5 HR, 46 RBI, 70/68 K/BB, 3 SB in 322 AB (AA Reading)
.500/.500/1.250, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 4 AB (Philadelphia)
.324/.425/.588, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 8/6 K/BB, 1 SB in 34 AB (AFL)
A career .246 hitter through 2 ½ minor league seasons, Marson broke through
in 2007 and then clearly established himself as one of the game's top
catching prospects while amassing a .433 OBP in Double-A last season. He may
top out at 10 or 12 homers per year, but his line-drive swing and plate
discipline should make him a fine offensive catcher. He might even be able to
hit second in a major league lineup for a few years. Defensively, he's held
back somewhat by an average arm. However, he's strong elsewhere, with his
game-calling skills receiving especially good reviews. If Carlos Ruiz fails
to bounce back offensively, the Phillies could consider adding Marson to the
mix by the middle of 2009. He's not going to be overmatched.
Stephen Marek - RHP Braves - DOB: 09/03/83
2-6, 3 Sv, 3.66 ERA, 39 H, 57/21 K/BB in 46 2/3 IP (AA Arkansas)
1-2, 1 Sv, 3.21 ERA, 12 H, 11/6 K/BB in 14 IP (AA Mississippi)
2-0, 2 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 9 H, 7/2 K/BB in 12 IP (AFL)
Marek was 21-18 with a 3.51 ERA in 64 minor league starts entering 2008 and
he had made obvious gains with a changeup, but the Angels still opted to move
him to the pen to begin the year and the Braves kept him there after
acquiring him along with Casey Kotchman for Mark Teixeira. Including his
stint in the AFL, in which he allowed only a couple of unearned runs in 12
innings, he gave up just three homers in 72 2/3 innings for the year. Since
becoming a reliever, Marek is consistently in the mid-90s with a fastball
that generates an above average number of grounders. He also has a strikeout
curveball. If his command improves with experience, he could well become a
long-term closer. Some Triple-A time will likely be necessary, but the Braves
may give him a chance to win a bullpen spot out of spring training.
Kris Medlen - RHP Braves - DOB: 10/07/85
7-8, 3.52 ERA, 121 H, 120/27 K/BB in 120 1/3 IP (AA Mississippi)
1-1, 2.14 ERA, 15 H, 25/1 K/BB in 21 IP (AFL)
Medlen, a 2006 10th-round pick out of a California junior college, was
strictly a reliever until the Braves opted to move him into the rotation last
June. He thrived after the switch, but he was returned to the bullpen in the
AFL and racked up a 25/1 K/BB ratio in 21 innings. Medlen is a low-90s guy
with a quality curveball and excellent control. His changeup ranks as his
third pitch, but he's been outstanding against left-handed hitters anyway.
Medlen is listed at 5-foot-10 and 175 pounds and he did battle elbow problems
at the end of 2007, so the Braves may figure that utilizing him as a reliever
is the best way to keep him healthy. He could turn into a nice setup man,
potentially by the middle of 2009.
Logan Morrison - 1B Marlins - DOB: 08/25/87
.332/.402/.494, 13 HR, 74 RBI, 80/57 K/BB, 9 SB in 488 AB (A+ Jupiter)
.404/.444/.667, 5 HR, 29 RBI, 14/8 K/BB, 1 SB in 99 AB (AFL)
Morrison's 2007 and 2008 lines couldn't be much different. Upon moving from
low-A ball to the FSL, his average went from .267 to .332 and his home run
total dropped from 24 to 13. He also went from two steals to nine and his
strikeout total went from 96 in 453 at-bats to 80 in 488 at-bats. In this
case, it makes a lot more sense to focus on the positives. The erosion of his
homer total was due in large part to the big ballparks in Florida, and he had
38 doubles, suggesting that the homers will come back in Double-A next year.
Morrison does have some issues against left-handed pitching and he'll
probably fall short of being a true cleanup hitter, but he is the Marlins'
best first base prospect ahead of likely 2009 regular Gabe Sanchez. It's
possible the team will try Morrison in left field to see if there will be
room for both.
Casper Wells - OF Tigers - DOB: 11/23/84
.240/.351/.447, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 39/22 K/BB, 17 SB in 179 AB (A- West Michigan)
.289/.376/.589, 17 HR, 53 RBI, 66/30 K/BB, 8 SB in 270 AB (AA Erie)
.321/.424/.705, 8 HR, 23 RBI, 26/6 K/BB, 4 SB in 78 AB (AFL)
Wells, who was selected in the 15th round of the 2005 draft, was hardly
shaping up as a prospect until a surprise promotion from low-A ball to
Double-A last year. He proceeded to put up a 965 OPS in 75 games, a 167-point
jump from where he was at in the Midwest League, and then he was one of the
best hitters in the AFL, delivering eight homers in just 78 at-bats. A native
Michigander, Wells would surely be a fan favorite in Detroit if he can
establish himself as a major leaguer. Unfortunately, he does fan quite a bit,
taking a toll on his average. Also, his power may not translate particularly
well to big-league ballparks. He has to be on fantasy radars after finishing
2008 with 35 homers and 29 steals (AFL play included), but a career as a
fourth outfielder would still qualify as quite an accomplishment.
Matt Young - OF Braves - DOB: 10/03/82
.289/.384/.385, 3 HR, 50 RBI, 62/68 K/BB, 30 SB in 491 AB (AA Mississippi)
.370/.448/.565, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 11/16 K/BB, 6 SB in 108 AB (AFL)
Young doesn't figure to enter 2009 any higher than fourth on the Braves'
center field depth chart, but he's no longer a complete afterthought after he
hit .370/.448/.565 in the AFL. Standing just 5-foot-8, Young doesn't pack a
lot of punch at the plate. However, he walks as often as he strikes out and
he's pretty good at advancing himself into scoring position once he's on
base. The Braves had him play left field in Double-A last year, but that was
because they had Jordan Schafer at the same level. Young should be able to
handle center in the majors if necessary. He's another Jason Tyner at best,
but it's worth noting that Tyner did have a 30-steal season in the majors.
===============================================================================
Peoria Saguaros
Mike Baxter - OF Padres - DOB: 12/07/84
.239/.324/.337, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 12/10 K/BB, 3 SB in 92 AB (A+ Lake Elsinore)
.272/.351/.426, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 41/39 K/BB, 2 SB in 324 AB (AA San Antonio)
.402/.495/.634, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 15/14 K/BB, 0 SB in 82 AB (AFL)
Baxter wasn't meant to be anything more than AFL roster filler after hitting
.264/.345/.406 between the California and Texas Leagues during the minor
league season, but he turned out to be one of the league's best players,
hitting .402/.495/.634 in 82 at-bats. A 2005 fourth-round pick out of
Vanderbilt, Baxter has yet to truly impress at any level of the minors.
Still, the Padres have little enough depth in the outfield that a fast start
in 2009 could punch his ticket to the majors. It helps his case that he has
the above average walk rate the Padres appreciate. Still, the best bet is
that he'll fade away without ever making an impact.
Gordon Beckham - SS White Sox - DOB: 09/16/86
.310/.365/.500, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 7/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 58 AB (A- Kannapolis)
.394/.468/.652, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 14/8 K/BB, 0 SB in 66 AB (AFL)
Gordon is undoubtedly the less gifted of the two Beckhams to go in the top 10
picks of the 2008 draft, but the University of Georgia product is a polished
infielder capable of reaching the majors in his first full pro season. He
showed that kind of potential while hitting .394/.468/.652 against advanced
competition in the AFL. Beckham is still playing shortstop for now, but the
guess is that he'll move to second. It's a change that could happen right
away, assuming that Alexei Ramirez proves he's comfortable at shortstop
during spring training. Ideally, Beckham would spend most of the year in
Double-A. However, he has considerably more upside than the White Sox's other
internal options at second base. He should hit .300 with 15-20 homers per
year in his prime.
Cesar Carrillo - RHP Padres - DOB: 04/29/84
3-5, 5.97 ERA, 69 H, 32/33 K/BB in 57 1/3 IP (A+ Lake Elsinore)
1-0, 3.79 ERA, 18 H, 17/7 K/BB in 19 IP (AFL)
Carrillo returned from May 2007 Tommy John surgery in unspectacular fashion,
but he did bounce back somewhat in the AFL, posting a 3.79 ERA and a 17/7
K/BB ratio in 19 innings. The Padres thought Carrillo would quickly make his
way to the majors after taking him out of Miami with the 18th pick in the
2005 draft, but he's thrown a mere 182 innings since being drafted. The elbow
woes that eventually led to surgery have also likely cut into his long-term
upside, and it's not as though he had an especially high ceiling in the first
place. Only because he'd have Petco Park on his side does he qualify as even
a deep sleeper in NL-only leagues. If he resumes throwing in the low-90s with
regularity, then the Padres won't be afraid to add him to their rotation
during 2009.
Leonard Davis - OF Nationals - DOB: 12/24/83
.332/.403/.608, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 47/23 K/BB, 7 SB in 217 AB (A+ Potomac)
.488/.553/.805, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 5/6 K/BB, 2 SB in 41 AB (AA Harrisburg)
.239/.266/.461, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 48/5 K/BB, 1 SB in 180 AB (AAA Columbus)
.325/.415/.600, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 16/11 K/BB, 2 SB in 80 AB (AFL)
The Nationals are hoping they've found a late bloomer in Davis, who took more
than three years to make it out of low-A ball after being drafted out of
junior college in 2004. Davis opened 2008 at high-A Potomac and had a 1011
OPS in 63 games. He then tore up Double-A pitching to the tune of a 1358 OPS
for 10 games before moving up to Triple-A and finding himself overmatched at
times. He slugged a perfectly respectable .461 for Columbus, but that came
with a 48/5 K/BB ratio in 180 at-bats, leaving him with a .266 OBP. Davis did
bounce back in the AFL, batting .325/.415/.600 in 80 at-bats. A left-handed
hitter with surprising pop for his size, Davis might see time with the Nats
as a bench player next year. He handles fastballs quite well. Sliders are a
different story, and he'll never be good enough to start against lefties.
He'll open 2009 back in Triple-A.
Eddie Kunz - RHP Mets - DOB: 04/08/86
1-4, 27 Sv, 2.79 ERA, 39 H, 43/25 K/BB in 68 1/3 IP (AA Binghamton)
0-1, 0 Sv, 7.94 ERA, 9 H, 4/2 K/BB in 5 2/3 IP (AAA New Orleans)
0-0, 0 Sv, 13.50 ERA, 5 H, 1/1 K/BB in 2 2/3 IP (NL New York)
2-2, 2 Sv, 10.93 ERA, 24 H, 14/10 K/BB in 14 IP (AFL)
Kunz, Oregon State's closer during its second championship campaign, was the
42nd overall selection in the 2007 draft. The Mets jumped him from Double-A
to the majors after almost exactly one year in the minors and even talked
about using him as a closer when Billy Wagner got hurt, but he was sent down
after throwing just 2 2/3 innings in August and wasn't recalled in September.
Instead, he was sent to the AFL, where he ended up allowing 17 runs in 14
innings. Kunz is more likely to be a setup man than a closer in the majors.
He gets about three grounders for every flyball thanks to his sinking
fastball, but his slider isn't a strikeout pitch and his changeup isn't much
of a weapon against left-handed hitters. The Mets will probably want him to
spend some time in Triple-A next year.
Jeff Marquez - RHP White Sox - DOB: 08/10/84
1-0, 5.40 ERA, 10 H, 6/1 K/BB in 6 2/3 IP (R GCL Yankees)
1-1, 2.93 ERA, 12 H, 12/7 K/BB in 15 1/3 IP (AA Trenton)
6-7, 4.69 ERA, 93 H, 33/24 K/BB in 80 2/3 IP (AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
2-2, 5.63 ERA, 29 H, 20/10 K/BB in 24 IP (AFL)
Marquez, a 2004 supplemental first-round pick, had routinely put up ERAs in
the low to mid-3.00s while climbing through the Yankees system, but he
stumbled badly in Triple-A last season, striking out just 33 in 80 2/3
innings for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. With his stock down, the Yankees had
little problem parting with him in the Nick Swisher trade after the season.
Marquez generally does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground with his
91-mph sinker, but he has nothing else that will scare major league hitters.
He's going to have to improve either his changeup or his curveball to
survive, even as a middle reliever. It's doubtful that he'll break camp with
the White Sox next spring.
Daniel Murphy - OF Mets - DOB: 04/01/85
.500/.500/.500, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2/0 K/BB in 14 AB (SS-A Brooklyn)
.308/.374/.496, 13 HR, 67 RBI, 46/39 K/BB, 14 SB in 357 AB (AA Binghamton)
.250/.400/.250, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 4 AB (AAA New Orleans)
.313/.397/.473, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 28/18 K/BB, 0 SB in 131 AB (NL New York)
.397/.487/.619, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 6/13 K/BB, 1 SB in 63 AB (AFL)
A 13th-round find out of Jacksonville University, Murphy solved the Mets'
issues in left field last season after making the jump from Double-A. The
left-handed hitter was a third baseman in the minors, but he's never going to
play there in New York unless David Wright gets hurt. The Mets tried him at
second base in the AFL with mixed results. Forearm and hamstring injuries
limited his playing time, with the latter problem causing him to forgo a
stint in the Puerto Rican Winter League. Since he saw so little action at
second, the Mets are expected to leave him in the outfield for now. He
probably didn't have the range for second anyway, and he's already a
durability concern without having to attempt a double play turn per game. On
offense, Murphy looks like a .290 hitter with the ability to deliver 30
doubles per year. He probably won't display the home run ability he needs to
become a major asset in left field, but he could be a nice option against
righties while he's cheap.
Adam Ottavino - RHP Cardinals - DOB: 11/22/85
3-7, 5.23 ERA, 133 H, 96/52 K/BB in 115 1/3 IP (AA Springfield)
3-1, 6.17 ERA, 33 H, 25/10 K/BB in 23 1/3 IP (AFL)
Ottavino entered 2008 with a 3.15 ERA in 41 starts since being selected in
the first round out of Northeastern in 2006, but he struggled mightily in his
first starts in Double-A and went on the DL in late April with a sore
shoulder. He returned after three weeks and wasn't quite so bad the rest of
the way, but he never did return to 2007 form. In the AFL, he allowed 21 runs
-- 16 earned -- in 23 1/3 innings, with the circuit hitting .344 against him.
A healthy Ottavino throws 90-94 mph with a plus slider, but his velocity was
still down in Arizona. If an offseason's rest gets him back to 100 percent,
he'll be a candidate to debut in the St. Louis rotation after the All-Star
break. However, his chances of reaching his No.2- No. 3-starter ceiling have
slipped.
Bobby Parnell - RHP Mets - DOB: 09/08/84
10-6, 4.30 ERA, 126 H, 91/57 K/BB in 127 2/3 IP (AA Binghamton)
2-2, 6.64 ERA, 25 H, 23/9 K/BB in 20 1/3 IP (AAA New Orleans)
0-0, 5.40 ERA, 3 H, 3/2 K/BB in 5 IP (NL New York)
3-1, 2.25 ERA, 15 H, 20/9 K/BB in 20 IP (AFL)
Parnell has posted a 4.68 ERA in his 41 starts in Double-A and four in
Triple-A, making it more likely than ever that his future lies in the
bullpen. He tops out at right around 94-95 mph and likely would be in the
mid-90s more regularly as a short reliever. He also has an above average
slider. Unfortunately, his changeup is a weak third offering and his command
is subpar. As a setup man, he could ditch the changeup and chase after more
strikeouts with his top two pitches. Odds are that the Mets will have him
open 2009 in their Triple-A rotation, but he could get a chance to compete
for a bullpen spot first.
Aaron Poreda - LHP White Sox - DOB: 10/01/86
5-5, 3.31 ERA, 67 H, 46/18 K/BB in 73 1/3 IP (A+ Winston-Salem)
3-4, 2.98 ERA, 81 H, 72/22 K/BB in 87 2/3 IP (AA Birmingham)
0-0, 7.71 ERA, 10 H, 12/8 K/BB in 9 1/3 IP (AFL)
The White Sox landed a big-time arm when they got Poreda with the 25th
overall pick in the 2007 draft, but in doubt was whether his secondary
pitches would develop. That he struck out only 46 batters in 73 1/3 innings
in the Carolina League was a bad sign. However, after moving up to Double-A,
he fanned 72 in 87 2/3 innings, without seeing any surge in his walk rate in
the process. He did go on and post a 7.71 ERA as a reliever in the AFL, but
all eight runs he allowed came in two of his 10 appearances. Poreda throws
90-95 mph as a starter, but topped out higher as a reliever. Neither his
slider nor changeup grades out as above average yet. The White Sox have
kicked around the idea of putting him in their rotation to begin 2009, but
he'd likely be of more use in the pen than in the rotation right now.
Ideally, he'd get in at least two or three months of Triple-A time before he
sees the majors next year. He has No. 2 starter upside, but he projects as
more of a No. 3 or No. 4 at the moment.
Jason Vargas - LHP Mets - DOB: 02/02/83
1-0, 2.10 ERA, 20 H, 13/5 K/BB in 25 2/3 IP (AFL)
In a deal that hasn't worked out at all, the Mets gave up Matt Lindstrom and
Henry Owens to bring in Vargas and Adam Bostick in Nov. 2006. Bostick has yet
to pitch in the majors, and Vargas posted a 12.19 ERA in his only two starts
for the Mets in 2007. Vargas then missed last season due to hip surgery
before returning and amassing a 2.10 ERA in 25 2/3 innings in the AFL. Vargas
looked like a long-term No. 3 starter when he debuted for the Marlins just
one year after being taken out of Long Beach St. in 2004. At this point, the
Mets would be thrilled just to see him turn into a solid reliever. His
fastball is down a few mph, and his slider isn't anything more than an
average secondary pitch. He needs innings, so he should probably open the
year in the rotation at Triple-A Buffalo.
Brett Wallace - 3B Cardinals - DOB: 08/26/86
.327/.418/.490, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 32/17 K/BB, 0 SB in 153 AB (A- Quad Cities)
.367/.456/.653, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 7/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 49 AB (AA Springfield)
.309/.381/.585, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 27/9 K/BB, 0 SB in 94 AB (AFL)
He was a poor fit, but the Cardinals couldn't resist taking Wallace with the
13th overall pick in the 2008 draft. While the left-handed hitter did play
third base at Arizona State, he was viewed by most as a first baseman going
forward. All indications are that he isn't far away offensively. Wallace had
a 957 OPS in his pro debut, including an 1109 mark in 49 at-bats after moving
up to Double-A. He then overcame a 4-for-30 start to hit .309/.381/.585 with
six homers in 94 at-bats in the AFL. Wallace does struggle some against
lefties, but he'll be an everyday player in time and a probable 30-homer guy
someday. The Cardinals will keep him at third base for now, but if he's going
to join Albert Pujols in the team's lineup, he's more likely to do so as a
left fielder. He could make for outstanding trade bait next summer if the
Cardinals are one player away.
===============================================================================
Scottsdale Scorpions
Brian Bogusevic - OF Astros - DOB: 02/18/84
.217/.357/.435, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 1/4 K/BB, 1 SB in 23 AB (A+ Salem)
.371/.447/.556, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 24/16 K/BB, 8 SB in 124 AB (AA Corpus Christi)
.338/.414/.459, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 16/10 K/BB, 3 SB in 74 AB (AFL)
It appears to be a good thing for all concerned that Bogusevic wasn't merely
a mediocre pitcher. The 2005 first-round pick had a 5.91 ERA in his 23
Double-A starts before both he and the Astros came to the realization that
he'd be better off leaving the mound behind and trying to make himself into
an outfielder. He was an immediate success, batting .371 in 42 games in
Double-A and then .338/.414/.459 in 74 at-bats in the AFL, and the
possibility exists that he could reach the majors at some point during 2009.
Bogusevic's swing isn't geared for home runs, but that could begin to change
as he gains confidence. He has a very good idea of what he's doing at the
plate, and he's not afraid to take pitches the other way. If he learns to be
a better job of fighting off inside pitches, he might have a future as a
regular corner outfielder. The Astros will probably try him as a fourth
outfielder first, perhaps in the second half of the season.
Clay Buchholz - RHP Red Sox - DOB: 08/14/84
1-0, 1.80 ERA, 7 H, 18/1 K/BB in 15 IP (AA Portland)
4-2, 2.47 ERA, 36 H, 43/17 K/BB in 43 2/3 IP (AAA Pawtucket)
2-9, 6.75 ERA, 93 H, 72/41 K/BB in 76 IP (Boston)
1-2, 3.86 ERA, 18 H, 17/9 K/BB in 21 IP (AFL)
Widely viewed as the game's best or second-best pitching prospect after a
2007 season in which he threw a no-hitter in one of his three major league
starts, Buchholz figured to make a run at 15 wins with his rotation spot
assured entering spring training. That he finished the spring with a 10.03
ERA could have been viewed as a bad omen, but he was solid enough early on,
going 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 33 strikeouts in his first six starts. Things
fell apart after that. He had two awful starts, went on the DL with a torn
fingernail and didn't reemerge for two months. Upon returning from the
minors, he went 0-6 with an 8.29 ERA the rest of the way. His stint in the
AFL went somewhat better. Buchholz's velocity was fine all year, but he
couldn't command his fastball and get ahead of hitters in order to use his
curveball. Buchholz's upside hasn't gone anywhere, but he isn't yet a
finished product. Barring an outstanding spring, he's probably going to get
some additional Triple-A time at the beginning of next year.
Shelby Ford - 2B Pirates - DOB: 12/15/84
.285/.338/.458, 4 HR, 32 RBI, 49/20 K/BB, 19 SB in 319 AB (AA Altoona)
.294/.385/.515, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 5/8 K/BB, 4 SB in 68 AB (AFL)
Ford has yet to put in a full season without getting hurt, but the 2006
third-round pick has been a consistent contributor when he's in the lineup. A
switch-hitter with modest power and above average speed, he could be next in
line for the Pirates at second base if Freddy Sanchez is traded.
Unfortunately, Ford isn't likely to hit for the same kind of averages as
Sanchez, making a better walk rate a must. He also needs to avoid the DL for
a year in order to convince the Pirates he's worth committing to. For now,
he's in the unusual position of needing the player ahead of him to perform
well if he hopes to get a chance. No one is going to trade for Sanchez in
July if he keeps hitting like he did last season.
Kevin Frandsen - 2B/3B Giants - DOB: 05/24/82
.000/.000/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 1 AB (San Francisco)
.331/.392/.421, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 13/7 K/BB, 10 SB in 133 AB (AFL)
Expected to make the Giants as a utilityman, Frandsen began being troubled by
a sore Achilles' tendon in the middle of the spring. The team decided against
resting him, and he went on to rupture the tendon on March 24, costing him
the season except for a brief cameo on Sept. 28. In an effort to show he was
healthy, Frandsen went to the AFL in September and proceeded to swipe 10
bases, six more than he had in 358 career major league at-bats. Frandsen
isn't a true speedster, and he doesn't have much more than 10-homer power.
However, he was a career .327 hitter in the minors. His ability to hit for
average and play quality defense at second base could make him a solid enough
regular for a few years. The Giants, though, still haven't committed to him
as anything more than a utilityman. If they sign an infielder this winter as
expected, Frandsen will likely have to compete for the starting job at second
or third next spring.
Alex Hinshaw - LHP Giants - DOB: 10/31/82
0-0, 7 Sv, 0.57 ERA, 5 H, 21/4 K/BB in 15 2/3 IP (AAA Fresno)
2-1, 0 Sv, 3.40 ERA, 31 H, 47/29 K/BB in 39 2/3 IP (San Francisco)
2-1, 0 Sv, 6.23 ERA, 22 H, 33/8 K/BB in 17 1/3 IP (AFL)
The key to Hinshaw's rise last season was that his command went from terrible
to merely bad. The southpaw, who was drafted four times -- three times by the
Giants -- before finally signing in 2005, throws 91-95 mph and gets plenty of
strikeouts with his curve, but command remains a major issue. Slowing down
his delivery a bit in the AFL only helped so much, as he finished with a 6.23
ERA in 17 1/3 innings. However, he was third in the league with 33
strikeouts, making him the lone reliever in the top 15. Hinshaw has a chance
to take a step forward and become a true setup man, but it's more likely that
the walks will hold him back throughout his career.
Chris Johnson - 3B Astros - DOB: 10/01/84
.324/.364/.506, 12 HR, 58 RBI, 61/20 K/BB, 5 SB in 330 AB (AA Corpus Christi)
.218/.252/.287, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 25/5 K/BB, 0 SB in 101 AB (AAA Round Rock)
.296/.355/.490, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 32/9 K/BB, 3 SB in 98 AB (AFL)
Johnson took a major step forward offensively last season after entering with
a .245/.283/.358 line in a year and a half as a pro. He did struggle while
spending the final month in Triple-A, but he bounced back to hit
.296/.355/.490 in the AFL. Plate discipline isn't a strength for the Stetson
product, but he makes a fair amount of hard contact and should develop into a
20-homer guy. Unfortunately, he's an even worse third baseman than Ty
Wigginton, the player the Astros would like him to replace at some point
within the next year or two. That might ultimately prevent him from having a
career as a major league regular. The Astros, though, figure to give a
lengthy look at some point. It might well happen next season if Wigginton is
traded.
Osiris Matos - RHP Giants - DOB: 08/06/84
0-0, 8 Sv, 1.23 ERA, 25 H, 37/11 K/BB in 36 2/3 IP (AA Connecticut)
1-0, 1 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 13/2 K/BB in 9 2/3 IP (AAA Fresno)
1-2, 0 Sv, 4.79 ERA, 26 H, 16/9 K/BB in 20 2/3 IP (San Francisco)
0-0, 0 Sv, 8.31 ERA, 16 H, 7/2 K/BB in 8 2/3 IP (AFL)
Capable of dominating minor league hitters with his mid-90s fastball, Matos
sported a 0.97 ERA and a .182 average against versus Double- and Triple-A
competition last season. He also held his own against major leaguers, though
his extreme flyball tendencies did begin to catch up to him in San Francisco.
After going without allowing a homer in 46 1/3 minor league innings, he gave
up three in the majors and two more while compiling an 8.31 ERA in 8 2/3
innings in the AFL. The problem with Matos is that his slider isn't yet a
big-time weapon. He should turn out to be a pretty goods setup man, but the
Giants may need to send him back to Fresno to begin 2009.
Bud Norris - RHP Astros - DOB: 03/02/85
3-8, 4.05 ERA, 89 H, 84/31 K/BB in 80 IP (AA Corpus Christi)
0-0, 1.89 ERA, 14 H, 20/13 K/BB in 19 IP (AFL)
Norris, a 2006 sixth-round pick out of Cal Poly, has been a starter the last
two years, but command issues have limited him to right around five innings
per outing. It's assumed by most that he'll be a long-term reliever, and he
went to the bullpen in the AFL and posted a 1.89 ERA in 19 innings. Norris
can pitch at 94-96 mph out of the pen, and he has a very good curveball. The
combination could make him a closer if command comes with more experience.
The Astros do have quite a bit more relief depth than starting, so there is
the chance that Norris will log some time in the big-league rotation next
year. However, he's far more likely to contribute as a middle man in the
short term.
Chris Pettit - OF Angels - DOB: 08/15/84
.231/.333/.308, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 13 AB (R AZL Angels)
.248/.320/.401, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 39/16 K/BB, 5 SB in 222 AB (AA Texas)
.359/.417/.545, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 28/9 K/BB, 8 SB in 145 AB (AFL)
Pettit's .327/.411/.538 line for two A-ball teams in 2007 didn't make him
much of a hit with the scouting community, even though it came with 30
steals. His Double-A performance suggests that the skepticism was warranted.
However, he did suffer a broken foot in the very first game of the season and
he couldn't have been completely pain free after returning. Also, he did hit
.359/.417/.545 in the AFL. A 19th-round pick out of Loyola Marymount in 2006,
Pettit is blessed with more smarts than tools. He's not a natural center
fielder, and he's probably not going to hit righties well enough to make it
as a starting corner outfielder in the majors. He could prove to be a useful
bench player because of his ability to hit lefties.
Drew Sutton - 2B Astros - DOB: 06/30/.83
.317/.408/.523, 20 HR, 69 RBI, 98/76 K/BB, 20 SB in 520 AB (AA Corpus Christi)
.315/.426/.611, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 31/24 K/BB, 3 SB in 108 AB (AFL)
Maybe the breakthrough player of the 2008 minor league season, Sutton wasn't
one of the Astros' top 30 prospects according to Baseball America after
hitting .269/.351/.388 in his first year in Double-A. He bettered that OPS by
200 points in his second year in Double-A, and just to show it wasn't a
fluke, he went and hit .315/.426/.611 with seven homers in 108 at-bats the
AFL. Sutton is a switch-hitter with plenty of patience at the plate, perhaps
even a little too much. His power should hold up once he gets to Houston, but
his average probably won't, as he does strike out a lot. Also, he's a below
average defensive second baseman. He might, however, fit nicely at third base
if the Astros opt to go that route. The likelihood of a Kaz Matsui injury or
a Ty Wigginton trade will make him a nice reserve pick in NL-only leagues.
--
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