[情報] The Best at Being Young and an Oriole

看板Prospect作者Belladonaa時間16年前 (2009/02/03 19:40)推噓5(5推 0噓 4→)

留言9則, 5人參與討論串1/1

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8453 Historic expectations for O's Wieters Insider By Kevin Goldstein Baseball Prospectus What did I learn this winter? I learned that Baltimore catching prospect Matt Wieters is good. Well, wait a second, I already knew that, so how about, "really good"? Nope, the extra modifier doesn't really do it justice. How about this: after reviewing his performance, talking to the scouts and seeing what our numbers people came up with over the offseason, it's clear to me that 22-year-old Matt Wieters is the best prospect in baseball, the best player on the Orioles right now, and quite possibly the best catcher in the game. And he's yet to play an inning in the big leagues. No pressure, Matt. Let's start with the basics. Wieters was the top position player available in the 2007 draft. That said, everyone knew he would drop a bit due to the selection of Scott Boras as his representation. The first surprise came when the normally budget-conscious Orioles selected Wieters with the fifth overall pick that June. The second was when they handed him a then-record $6 million as an up-front bonus. With all eyes on him last spring, Wieters slugged two home runs in his first game of the year for High-A Frederick, and he never looked back. He hit .345/.448/.576 in a half-season for Frederick before the Orioles did a favor to the pitchers of the Carolina League and moved him up to Double-A. The jump from A-ball to Double-A is the second-hardest adjustment for a player scaling the ladder on their way up through the minors, second only to ascending to the big leagues; instead of struggling, Wieters was even better, batting .365/.460/.625 against more advanced competition. With enough at-bats to qualify, he would have won the Eastern League's batting title by 30 points, while also leading it in on-base percentage and slugging by massive margins. Now, in ranking prospects, to simply go by the numbers is a fool's choice. Knowing what a player is doing is one thing, but knowing how that player is doing it is just as vital. Scouts are great people to talk to, often giving you in-depth breakdowns on every aspect of a player's game. Those were a little harder to get on Wieters following his season. One scout, when presented with the name simply laughed and said, "What can I say? The guy is just a stud." We're talking about a massive physical specimen who combines plus power from both sides of the plate, the strike-zone discipline of a sharp-eyed veteran, above-average defensive skills behind the plate and a cannon for an arm, proven by the 96-mph fastballs he'd throw during the days when he did double duty as Georgia Tech's closer. So we know he's great, but work done by our team of researchers and statisticians during the off-season suggest that he might just be historic. One essential measurement here at Baseball Prospectus is Clay Davenport's Equivalent Average (EqA), which is a single figure that measures total offense and adjusts for a number of factors, including the league's offensive environment, park factors and team pitching while providing further balances across time to allow for accurate comparisons across different eras. 2009 PECOTA projections: Top Catchers by EqA Rank Player Team EqA 1. Matt Wieters BAL .319 2. Brian McCann ATL .299 3. Joe Mauer MIN .298 4. Geovany Soto CHC .297 5. Russell Martin LAD .291 6. Chris Iannetta COL .291 7. Mike Napoli LAA .289 8. Jeff Clement SEA .280 9. Ryan Doumit PIT .275 10. Miguel Montero ARI .273 Applying these complex formulas to Wieters' minor league season gives him a .301 EqA for his High-A stint and a .349 mark at Double-A. EqA is scaled like batting average, so those are good numbers to be sure, but further research reveals that those are the highest marks achieved in both leagues in the last 40 years, which is as far as our data goes back. So Matt Wieters wasn't just great last year, he put together one of the best single seasons in modern minor league history. If that isn't an enthusiastic-enough endorsement, then there's PECOTA, our projection system, and the most accurate one in the business. According to PECOTA, with a full slate of at-bats, Wieters should hit .311 with a .395 on-base percentage and a .544 slugging mark this year. That's good for a .319 EqA. How good is that? Historically great, because it would easily be the highest mark of any catcher in 2009, and in baseball history only 17 catchers have exceeded it. According to PECOTA, the most similar player in baseball history to Wieters is Mark Teixeira, another switch-hitter with plenty of power and patience, as well as the ability to hit for a high average. That combination of skills was worth eight years and $180 million on the open market this offseason: If Wieters lives up to expectations, one shudders at the thought of his value on the market as a Teixeira clone with above-average defensive skills at catcher. No matter what the number, it certainly adds up to another big payday down the road for a Scott Boras client. Kevin Goldstein is an analyst forBaseball Prospectus. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.67.214