[情報] Keith Law Prospect Q&A
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2009/2/10/keith-law-prospect-qa.html
Keith Law Prospect Q&A
A former member of the Toronto Blue Jays front office and current ESPN Scouts,
Inc. senior writer, Keith Law is held in extremely high regard for his work in
the field of prospect evaluation on a national scale.
Law was generous enough to devote some of his valuable time to answering
prospect-specific questions on the Texas Rangers' top-ranked farm system last
week. Apologies if your question wasn't answered.
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Q: Last spring after seeing both [Neftali] Feliz and [Wilmer] Font, you wrote
that Feliz was "just the opening act for the star attraction, 17-year-old
Wilmer Font." I was there that day too and I agreed with you. In light of that,
I have to ask: why didn't you mention Font in your list of guys who could break
into the Top 100 in 2009? Is his upside not top-20 material?
Mike Hindman
Keith Law: He didn't pitch. Without any performance data, any firm information
on his health, and a lost year of development time, he just didn't make sense
to highlight over someone like [Wilfredo] Boscan. If Font had thrown 80-100
innings this year and performed like you'd expect someone with that kind of
stuff to perform, he would have been on the Top 100 -- you don't find that
combination of youth, size, velocity, and stuff every day.
Q: In your opinion, who are the most overrated and underrated prospects in the
Rangers' system? Why?
Keith Law: I don't know that there's anyone who's overrated in the Rangers'
system; I suppose you could say [Taylor] Teagarden, who didn't hit at all this
past year and whose arm problems might be a permanent issue. By my count, he
only caught on back-to-back days 31 times all season, across all three levels.
Underrated ... [Michael] Main, certainly. [Kasey] Kiker. [Robbie] Ross. All
three are dinged because they're not tall, but Main's a great athlete with huge
stuff, and all three are excellent competitiors with Kiker and Ross showing
good feel for pitching.
Q: Which Rangers prospect in your minor league Top 100 did you struggle with
the most? Who did you want to rank higher but just couldn’t justify it?
Professor Parks
Keith Law: I'm a huge Michael Main fan -- have been since before the '07 draft
-- but he just didn't pitch enough to justify a higher ranking, and I'm
concerned about lost development time, since he's not going to go out and throw
160 innings in 2009 after such a short 2008 season. But I do still believe in
the arm and athleticism.
Q: Keith, how much of the commotion raised over Blake Beavan's drop in velocity
in 2008 was actually warranted? Approximately where does he rank in the
Rangers' farm system in your estimation, and what is your long-term prognosis
for his career?
Joey Matschulat
Keith Law: He lost velocity. That's … not good, especially since his calling
card in high school was velocity; his delivery was rough and his secondary
stuff wasn't that advanced. He's somewhere in the 15-20 range in the Rangers'
system, behind Ross, Kiker, Boscan, [Neil] Ramirez, etc.
Q: Scouts and executives love tall pitchers, but occasionally, the short guys
turn into something really special. When you evaluate players like Joseph
Ortiz, Robbie Ross, and Kasey Kiker, how much does their height affect your
opinion?
Trip Somers
Keith Law: I'm only concerned with height for one reason -- the ability to
generate downhill plane on one's fastball. Pitchers who try to pitch up in the
zone with their fastballs, especially if they're throwing four-seamers that
lack movement or "life," are going to end up homer-prone far more often than
not. The idea that tall equals durable does not, in my opinion, hold much
water. I think thickness and delivery are far more important variables.
Q:You rank Martin Perez as the number 13 pitching prospect in all of baseball.
The buzz on Perez among Rangers fans is heavy, but you're the first to key on
him to that extent nationally. You suggested he has a chance to "shoot up the
system" -- at age 17, what sort of track would you put him on if you were
calling the shots?
Jamey Newberg
Keith Law: It really depends on his performance -- I doubt anyone suggested
last winter that [Neftali] Feliz should finish 2008 in AA, but his performance
clearly merited it. Perez should start 2009 in Low-A [Hickory], and if he's
dominating, there's merit in skipping him over the [High-A] California League,
especially if he's showing great command.
Q: Put yourself in Jon Daniels' shoes for a moment. What is going to be the
biggest obstacle in taking this team from No. 1 farm system to perennial
contender?
Todd Trice
Keith Law: That's fairly obvious, no? Developing pitching. They've had some
decent arms before, but there's no track record in franchise history of
developing any substantial amount of homegrown pitching. They've been a
run-scoring club rather than a run-prevention club for most of their 40 years
in Texas, but it does seem that run prevention is more important when talking
about perennial contention or post-season success. The defense will improve -
[Elvis] Andrus, [Julio] Borbon, and [Justin] Smoak are all plus defenders --
but developing quality pitching and keeping it healthy is about more than just
stockpiling arms.
Q: Is there one thing that the Rangers are doing better than any other
organization right now (maybe Latin American scouting)? As far as player
development, they have improved a lot recently. What area(s) still need to be
better?
t ball
Keith Law: They have integrated their scouting and evaluation across all areas
-- draft, international, pro -- better than any team in baseball. They were the
first team to target Latin American signees as throw-ins in trades while those
players were still in short-season ball, often within a year of their original
signing dates. You can't do that unless your international scouting department
is talking to pro scouting and to the GM, or unless the information is all
readily accessible to the GM when he's conducting the negotiations. In a league
where the best teams are increasingly the best-run teams (Boston, Tampa Bay),
staying ahead of the operational curve is obligatory.
Q: The John Danks-for-Brandon McCarthy trade looks to be a huge bust for the
Rangers. Did the White Sox just do a better job of evaluating these two
pitchers, or did McCarthy's stuff take a big step backwards upon switching
organizations and Danks's stuff moved in the other direction? And is there any
hope that McCarthy can salvage a career as a contributor in a big league
rotation?
Todd Trice
Keith Law: Danks added a cutter, which serves as the breaking ball he was
really missing in Texas. He was a lefty who was more effective at getting
righties out, coming up in a system (Texas) where the big league ballpark
favors left-handed power hitters. Until he went to Chicago, he didn't have a
legit weapon to get lefties out.
McCarthy may have been damaged goods when the Rangers acquired him. He wouldn't
be the first pitcher Kenny Williams has traded who was already hurt when he got
on the plane (Mike Sirotka and Freddy Garcia come to mind). If McCarthy's
shoulder is 100 percent, he can absolutely be a contributor in the middle of a
rotation, but that's a conditional I can't really assess from afar.
Q: I'm intrigued by the acquisition of Greg Golson. I agreed with the move to
swap prospects, seeing as the Rangers already have an ample amount of power
prospects. I read he automatically comes in as the best defensive arm in the
system along with the best speed. I'm curious as to what type of player he
resembles. I've read that he's similar to Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter. Do you
think, with the help of Rudy Jaramillo, he can develop the plate discipline to
become a Torii Hunter-esque center fielder?
Tim from Dallas
Keith Law: Fifth outfielder type. He's similar to Cameron and Hunter in that
all three are black. That's about the end of it. I have never seen a
first-rounder with less feel for the game than Golson has.
That said, I'd rather have him than [John] Mayberry.
Q: Which current Ranger minor leaguers, besides the likely untouchables of
Feliz, [Derek] Holland, Andrus and Smoak are the most attractive trade targets
of other MLB teams? Can you put these players into one of two categories -
near-major league ready and two-plus years away?
Mike From Dallas
Keith Law: I'm not sure why Andrus would be untouchable -- or even Holland. But
to answer your question, outside of those guys, Borbon, and Max Ramirez (and
possibly Teagarden), there's little trade value in the Rangers' system right
now. Their best prospects are all too far away to be more than second or third
guys in a major deal. Engel Beltre has enormous upside, but no one is going to
give you a major league player of any worth for him.
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