Post-Hype Pitchers
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Phil Hughes – SP – Yankees – 23 years old
Few pitching prospects get more hype than Hughes had coming into last year,
but he went 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA while showing decreased velocity in eight
starts for the Yankees and missed much of the season with broken ribs. Hughes
has a 5.15 ERA through 106.2 innings as a major leaguer and has averaged just
91.0 miles per hour with his fastball, so his huge upside is certainly now in
question.
However, it's important to note that he won't be 23 years old until midseason
and arrived in New York after all of five starts at Triple-A. Hughes may be
headed for a little more seasoning in the minors thanks to the Yankees adding
CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett this winter, but a strong showing at Triple-A
could get him back into the rotation mix in a hurry.
Hughes' stock has certainly dropped considerably, but as long as he can
reclaim some of that lost velocity this season there's little reason to be
overly concerned about 106 poor innings before the age of 23. He looked good
posting a 3.00 ERA with 38 strikeouts over 30 innings in the Arizona Fall
League and still looks like a potential No. 1 starter down the road with No.
3 starter skills in the short term.
Clay Buchholz – SP – Red Sox – 24 years old
Most prospect rankings had Hughes as the No. 1 pitcher last year, but
Buchholz was a close second after tossing a no-hitter in his second career
start. He looked headed for a strong rookie campaign after posting a 3.71 ERA
and 33 strikeouts through six starts, but back-to-back poor outings were
followed by torn fingernail and Buchholz went 0-6 with an 8.29 ERA after
returning two months later.
Hughes' struggles can be pretty easily linked to decreased velocity, but
Buchholz averaged 92.6 miles per hour with his fastball last season. Instead
his command failed him, as Buchholz walked 41 batters in 76 innings after
handing out a grand total of 45 walks in 148 innings between Double-A,
Triple-A, and Boston in 2008. There's no reason to expect control to be a
long-term problem for Buchholz.
Also encouraging is that he struck out 72 batters in those 76 frames even
while struggling overall, which suggests that his raw stuff is still plenty
good. Much like the Yankees with Hughes the Red Sox can bring him along
slowly after signing Brad Penny and John Smoltz, but given their injury
histories there will be another opportunity for Buchholz soon enough if he
can put together a good Triple-A run.
Andrew Miller – SP – Marlins – 24 years old
Ranked by many as the top talent in the 2006 draft, Miller fell to the Tigers
at No. 6 when teams were scared off by his bonus demands and went to the
Marlins as part of last winter's Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis trade. He's
struggled thus far with a 5.80 ERA and 115 walks in 181.2 career innings, but
as sucker for ground balls and strikeouts Miller is among my favorite
post-hype targets.
Control problems are hardly unusual for a young pitcher who debuted at 21 and
is in the majors to stay after all of 102.1 innings in the minors. Miller's
average fastball was clocked at 92 miles per hour last season and his
high-70s slider can be a dominant strikeout pitch, which is how the young
southpaw has produced 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings with a grounder on
nearly half his balls in play.
Outstanding raw stuff, missed bats, and ground balls is almost always a
recipe for long-term success, which is why Miller still has No. 1 starter
potential as long as he can slice the walk rate from his current 5.2 per nine
innings to somewhere in the 3.0-3.5 range. It may not happen this season, but
Miller is definitely worth taking a flier on in NL-only leagues and is hugely
undervalued in keeper leagues.
Ian Kennedy – SP – Yankees – 24 years old
Kennedy flopped alongside Hughes last year, going 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA through
two months before landing on the disabled list with a strained lat muscle.
Once healthy the Yankees sent Kennedy down to Triple-A before bringing him
back for one mid-August start against the Angels, after which he was demoted
again for the remainder of the season.
Kennedy can't match Hughes or Buchholz in terms of raw stuff or upside, but
his minor-league resume is too good to ignore because of 39.2 bad innings in
New York. A first-round pick in 2006, Kennedy has a 1.99 ERA over 226 innings
in the minors, including a 2.26 ERA and 106/28 K/BB ratio in 103.2 innings at
Triple-A. He'll have to wait a while for his next shot, but at 24 years old
has plenty of time.
David Purcey – SP – Blue Jays – 27 years old
Purcey was full of upside when Toronto chose him 16th overall in the 2004
draft, but struggled to throw strikes through three pro seasons and then went
3-6 with an ugly 5.54 ERA in a dozen-start debut with the Blue Jays last year
after finally working his way to the majors at the age of 26. However, Purcey
showed tons of improvement prior to arriving in Toronto and has more upside
than most think.
With a low-90s fastball and mid-80s slider Purcey has outstanding raw stuff
for a 6-foot-5 southpaw and he's always racked up a ton of strikeouts. He's
improved his control significantly over the past two seasons, posting a
176/50 K/BB ratio in 179 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Purcey turns
27 years old in April, so stardom is unlikely, but he makes for an excellent
flier in AL-only leagues.
Garrett Olson – SP – Mariners – 25 years old
A former first-round pick who began his career with a 6.87 ERA through 33
starts with the Orioles, Olson was traded twice last month. He moved from
Baltimore to Chicago for Felix Pie and then from Chicago to Seattle for Aaron
Heilman. All the moving and a 6.87 ERA makes it seem like Olson is a bum, but
he actually still has quite a bit of potential at the age of 25.
Olson's command has betrayed him in the majors thus far, but he showed solid
control in the low minors before posting a 3.12 ERA and 159/55 K/BB ratio
over 164 innings at Triple-A. Olson doesn't have overpowering raw stuff,
throwing his fastball in the high-80s or low-90s, but can be a solid
mid-rotation starter and as a fly-ball southpaw will be helped by calling
Safeo Field home in the future.
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