Chat with Baseball America's Jim Callis
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=24852
Jim Callis: Hi, everyone. I've been working diligently on our Early Draft
Preview, so that's on my mind. But as usual, I'm game for any questions you
want to throw my way. Let's go!
Chris S.I. N.Y.: Jim, Just got the Handbook and so far it's all that I
expected and then some. What do you think are realistic expectations this
year for Carlos Santana. What's a comparible ceiling for him?
Jim Callis: Thanks, Chris. I hope you ordered directly from Baseball America
so you got scouting reports on each team's No. 31 prospect thrown in as a
bonus. For 2009, I expect Santana to split the year between Double-A and
Triple-A. He probably won't match his huge numbers from last year, but I could
see him hitting .280 with 15-20 HR while improving his defense. The bat reminds
me some of Victor Martinez, but he should be a better defender than that.
Chris (Newport Beach): Jim, the chats are great! I was wondering what's the
average time a prospect spends in the minors based on whether he's drafted
out of college versus out of high school?
Jim Callis: I researched this a few years ago and I know someone else who did
the same. The college guys who make it to the majors generally spend 1 1/2 to
2 years less in the minors, on average, than the high schoolers.
Kevin (New Brunswick, NJ): Is it just me or does the draft seem college-heavy
at the top this year? Do some of the top HSers have a chance to climb up this
spring and even it out a little?
Jim Callis: Everything equal, clubs will lean toward the college guys because
they'll get there quicker. But the biggest strength of this draft is college
pitching, so you'll see a lot of those guys (led by Stephen Strasburg) go in
the top half of the first round. The college position guys aren't as good as
the high school group, though Southern California SS Grant Green and North
Carolina 1B/OF Dustin Ackley will be the first two taken.
Michael SLC, UT: Who in this year's high school draft class is most
comparable to Eric Hosmer?
Jim Callis: I don't see a bat like that in this year's HS crop--Hosmers don't
come around often. The best position player is Donavan Tate, but he's a
five-tool outfielder who's not nearly the devastating hitter Hosmer was.
Alex (WI): Jason Stoffel or Blake Smith? Why?
Jim Callis: Stoffel. They don't rank that far apart on our prospect list, but
that's an easy choice for me. Stoffel has a mid-90s fastball and a hard
curveball and a better track record of performance. It's telling that even
though Arizona had first-rounders Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth in its 2008
bullpen, Stoffel was the closer. Looks like a mid-first-rounder to me.
Mike (Boston): Jim! Please answer brother as I am looking for some insight on
this. If Clay Buchholz was still prospect eligable where would he rank this
season. (Ahead of Bumgamer, Price, etc.) He was considered elite and a couple
bad starts seem to have made him a forgotten man. Thanks in advance if you
get to it.
Jim Callis: Interesting . . . He wouldn't rank ahead of David Price, that's
for sure. But he'd still be in the top 20-25 prospects, at worst. He's got
great stuff and his problems (fastball command, confidence) are solvable.
Ed( San Diego,CA): Who has the better bat, Ackley or Green? Who has athe
higher upside as a pro?
Jim Callis: Ackley is the best pure hitter in college baseball. Green is no
slouch either, and has a little more power. Throw in the fact that Green is a
SS, and he has more upside. Both guys are studs.
Kevin (LA): So if theres no Hosmer-esque, does that mean its a weaker draft
for hitters?
Jim Callis: Well, it is, because last year's college hitting crop was the best
of the decade. But Hosmers don't come around every year, so that's not
particularly telling.
Joseph (Sacramento, CA): So how would you rank Price, Bumgarner, Strasburg,
A.Crow and Buckholz right now as prospects? Thanks.
Jim Callis: Price, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Buchholz, Crow.
Scott (Allenton, WI): Hi Jim, I read the ask BA yesterday in which you
compared Price to Bumgarner. I was curious how Bumgarner stacks up against
Kershaw. Thanks, love the chats.
Jim Callis: Thanks for the Ask BA plug. I'd take Kershaw over Bumgarner, though
it would be closer than Price vs. Bumgarner. As with Price, the biggest
difference between Kershaw and Bumgarner is that Kershaw has a more
consistently devastating breaking ball.
Steve (Boston, MA): Jim - What's the ETA on BA's Top 100 Prospect List for
2009 on the website? Thanks.
Jim Callis: The issue with the Top 100 list goes to print on Feb. 19, so it
will appear on the website right around then.
Michael SLC, UT: Do you feel that playing for the USA baseball team gives
high school players any advantage in the draft or being prepared for
professional baseball?
Jim Callis: Yes. They'll face better competition than they've seen, in front of
scouts. It's a great proving ground.
Ben (Centerville, OH): 16 year old Venezuelan CF Yorman Rodriquez ranked 5th
in the Reds farm system despite havin gnever played a game in the US. I've
heard about a plus plus arm, plus plus speed, plus power, and plus defense,
but how can anyone so far away from the majors be rated that high? The Reds
system is depleted after graduating Bruce, Votto, and Cueto, but it is far
from bare.
Jim Callis: It's not bare, but they don't have many advanced blue-chip
prospects. And as always, our lists are based on long-term major league impact,
hence the Rodriguez ranking.
Ben (Centerville, OH): Finally, the all-powerful CIP device is destroyed! Now
how is Jack going to get President Taylor's apparently very easy to kidnap
Husband? And how does a terorist calmly walk out of a building and use the
metro in Washington DC? And when does Sinister Senator John Voight enter the
picture?
Jim Callis: The first question is silly! Of course Jack is going to rescue the
First Gentleman. (I'll say this, if my wife ever becomes President, I will
refuse to be designated as the First Gentleman.) I too wondered about the
international war criminal just walking out of the building and casually
hopping on the subway. My over/under for Voigt's return: 7 p.m.
Kenny (ATL, GA): If the draft were held today, who would your #s 2-5 picks
be? (Obviously assuming Strasburg being picked #1).
Jim Callis: My personal list (not trying to match players to teams) would be,
in order: Strasburg, Green, Ackley, North Carolina RHP Alex White and give me
Aaron Crow over Tate.
Isaac (NYC): I was wondering what your take is on this Eric Fryer fellow the
Yankees just acquired. any potential?
Jim Callis: He's not really a big prospect. He's not able to hack it as a
full-time catcher and won't have the bat to be a full-time catcher. Basically,
he's a body acquired for someone designated for assignment (Chase Wright, who's
no great shakes either).
Jake, St Louis: Anything new to report on the Joshua Fields saga? Do you see
him reporting to the Indy League or signing on the dotted line?
Jim Callis: Nope, same old, same old. Scott Boras has other things on his mind
right now, but the last I checked the Mariners would like to sign him before
spring training if they're going to sign him. His slot is $1.5 million, but
Boras maintains that old regime knew they wanted $2 million. We'll see. Both
sides won't really lose anything if he doesn't sign. The M's will recoup the
No. 21 overall pick and get a comparable value, and Boras will find a team that
will pay Fields $2 million once he lights up indy ball. I really have no great
feel for how this plays out, it could really go either way.
Joe (Boston): You've probably answered this question 100 times in the past,
many with different answers. (Re)rank them: Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy,
Lester, Buchholz, Bowden.
Jim Callis: Lester, Chamberlain, Buchholz, Hughes, Bowden, Kennedy.
Michael SLC, UT: If the draft were held today, who would be the top 5 High
school hitters picked? Would Austin Maddox or Matt Davidson be in the mix?
Jim Callis: In order, OF Donavan Tate (Cartersville, Ga.), C Luke Bailey
(LaGrange, Ga.), 3B/1B Bobby Borchering (Fort Myers, Fla.), OF Brian Goodwin
(Rocky Mount, N.C.) and SS Jovanni Mier (LaVerne, Calif.). Maddox or Davidson
could be among the top five HS hitters to go, though. C Max Stassi (Yuba City,
Calif.) and OF Jacob Marisnick (Riverside, Calif.) are two more to keep an
eye on.
Matthew (Boston): You would still put Hughes over Bowden, why?
Jim Callis: A little more upside for me. Remember, we really have seen much of
a fully healthy Hughes at the major league level.
Matthew (Boston): Better chance to still become a star Rickie Weeks or Alex
Gordon?
Jim Callis: Alex Gordon.
John (Grand Rapids): Jim - when does the BA pre-season draft issue come out,
and what extent of the info be available to online subscribers?
Jim Callis: The Early Draft Preview, which we combine with our College Preview,
goes to print tomorrow. All that info will be online, hopefully early next
week.
Chris (Hoboken, NJ): Hey Jim.. as I'm still waiting for ym handbook.. can you
tell me a little more about Dillon Gee? Where did he fall in the Met's top
30? Does he have the potential to help the 09 team? Thanks for the chat!
Jim Callis: No. 17 on our Mets list. He's only pitched four games above high
Class A, so I think 2009 would be pushing it. He really know how to pitch, but
his stuff is pretty average.
cedric (boston): If that's how Tony really survived, there's got to be hope
for Curtis to come back too!
Jim Callis: Can someone please explain to me why Jack had to shoot Curtis in
the neck, rather than the wrist or knee? Wouldn't that have worked? Am I the
only one who thinks that Curtis looks like Big Papi?
Jim Colorado Springs: Jim - In retrospect, if you're the Giants...do you
still take Bumgarner over Heyward in the 2007 draft?
Jim Callis: Yeah, I think you do. You could make the case for either, I think
Bumgarner is a slightly better prospect. Could argue that the Giants need an
outfielder more than a pitcher, but that high up in the draft, you take the
best player.
Jack (Wisconsin): What do you see the Brewers doing this year? I think the
Cubs have got worse and everyone else has stayed the same. Any chance Brewers
and get the Div. Title?
Jim Callis: I haven't liked many of the Cubs' offseason moves, but they still
look like the best NL team to me. The Brewers can contend for the divison and
wild card if they get enough pitching, but the jury is still out on that.
They'll score some runs.
Joseph (Sacramento, CA): I read the Baseball America snippet on Price vs.
Bumgarner. Out of curiousity, where would Strasburg fit into this discussion?
Thanks.
Jim Callis: Price vs. Strasburg would be a great story for our Draft Preview in
May. It would be very, very close. If I had to pick between the two, I'd take
Price because he's a LHP and I've already seen him succeed in the major leagues
(on a playoff stage, no less). Any team would be thrilled to have either of
them.
Jack Bauer: Is my man, Brandon Wood going to braek out this year?
Jim Callis: I still believe. He may not hit more than .260-.270 on an annual
basis, but I still think he can hit 25-30 homers and play a solid shortstop.
I'd take him.
Gary (Sacramento): Who took Price in the draft out of high school, what
round, and what kind of offer did he turn down to go to Vanderbilt?
Jim Callis: The Dodgers took him in the 19th round in 2004. He was regarded as
a potential stud but wasn't signable away from Vandy. Here's an excerpt from
our scouting report at the time: Price, an honorable mention all-state
selection in basketball, has a 6-foot-5, 180-pound frame that oozes projection.
He's lean, loose and has a live arm, with a fastball that sits in the 89-90 mph
and touches 93-94. On occasion, his curveball is an average to plus pitch. A
Vanderbilt signee, Price is an excellent student who is just scratching the
surface of his prodigious talent. He'll either go high in this draft or replace
[Jeremy] Sowers in the Commodores rotation and try to follow his path.
Mark (Indy): So, since your top two high school hitters are from Georgia it's
a virtual lock that the Braves will pick one of them at No. 7 ... right?
Jim Callis: Not necessarily. It's no lock that Tate gets to them, and No. 7 is
too high for Bailey right now.
Timmy L., San Francisco: MLB team furthest away from making the playoffs?
Jim Callis: Padres.
Brandon (Huntsville, AL): Do you think the Reds would select RHP A. Crow if
available at #8 assuming he pitches well in the Indy Leagues and stays
healthy?
Jim Callis: They'd definitely consider it. They almost took him last year.
Jim Callis: Let's head to the lightning round . . .
Timmy L., San Francisco: Fact or Fiction? The Giants have the best top 4
prospects in baseball.
Jim Callis: Fact.
Matthew (Boston): Alex White or Kyle Gibson, why?
Jim Callis: The consensus says White, who has a better arm, and I'll go with
the consensus. But it's close--Gibson has a better offspeed pitch and better
command, and probably a better chance to be a starter.
Nick (Milwaukee): ETA on Strasburg to the majors?
Jim Callis: Mid-2010.
Mike (Boston): Fowler or Snider?
Jim Callis: Snider. I have Snider No. 16 on my Top 50 . . . and Fowler No. 17.
Petey (Orlando): McCutchen or Fowler?
Jim Callis: Fowler.
Michael SLC, UT: Top High School Pitcher: Matthew Purke, Jacob Turner, Tyler
Matzek, or someone else?
Jim Callis: Matzek. Fine draft questions today, Michael.
Michael (Los Angeles, CA): Heyward or Rasmus?
Jim Callis: Rasmus.
Kyle (OH): Arrieta, Erbe, or Patton?
Jim Callis: Jake Arrieta.
Jason (Toronto, Ontario): If Lawrie stays at catcher, would you rather have:
him or Posey?
Jim Callis: I'll say Posey, because Lawrie sounds like he'd be an adequate to
average catcher and Posey could be a Gold Glover (and should hit). Wouldn't
surprise me if Lawrie outhit him, though.
Kevin (Boston, MA): Best high school player overall, regardless of year?
Jim Callis: A-Rod jumps to mind.
Brian (Jersey): Most dissapointing prospect thus far from last year's draft?
Jim Callis: Among first-rounders, Mets 1B Ike Davis, who went homerless in his
pro debut. Phillies 3B/OF Anthony Hewitt wasn't close to being ready to hit pro
pitching, but that was to be expected.
Jordan (Toronto): Iona or Villalona
Jim Callis: Villalona.
Brian (Brooklyn): Jessica Alba or field?
Jim Callis: Is that one person from the field, or the entire field? Would be
tough to turn down the entire field.
Peter (Tampa): How was your time down here for the Super Bowl? Where does
F-Mart rank on your personal Top 50?
Jim Callis: It was awesome, and not just because I'm a Steelers fan. Glad I
went--may be hard to ever top that as a sporting experience. F-Mart was No. 40.
Timmy L., San Francisco: Fowler or Maybin?
Jim Callis: Fowler.
Jessie (Mission Viejo, CA): Best current high school player, position or
grade doesnt matter?
Jim Callis: Bryce Harper, the C from Nevada who won't be eligible until 2011.
Brian (Brooklyn): Anyone from the field...I know she has been at the top for
awhile, I was wondering if she has been
Jim Callis: Alba has been dethroned. I got savaged by a front-office official
a few weeks back for touting Anne Hathaway, but she does more for me than
Alba these days.
Over/Under: 75% The percentage of people screaming at the First Gentleman to
wipe his prints off the knife.
Jim Callis: Over. I know I did.
cedric (boston): Jack shot him right where he wanted to - close enough to
incapacitate him, but leaving him just enough to live. ok, serious question.
Did you go to the last WBC finals? The tourney has a ton of issues it needs
to work out, but the energy and enthusiasm the fans showed for their home
countries in those final three games was amazing.
Jim Callis: What? He killed Curtis instantly! Don't understand why he couldn't
have just wounded him severely. Did not attend any of the WBC. I can't excited
about the WBC that much. To me, it's a bunch of exhibition with pitchers on
pitch limits and tons of guys bowing out. It's somewhat cool, but nothing
akin to a true World Series.
Doug (NY): Harper > Strasburg?
Jim Callis: No, no, no. I was just talking HS players there.
Ben (Minneapolis): For the Twins, Shooter Hunt will be a: a)midrotation
starter, b) back-of-the-rotation starter, c) set-up man, or d) extra bullpen
arm.
Jim Callis: A.
Erik (Georgia): Ross Wilson, a first round pick some day?
Jim Callis: He is the second baseman on our preseason All-America team
(selected by scouting directors), but second basemen rarely go in the first
round. He's probably a fourth- to sixth-rounder at this point.
Jason (Atlanta): #2 pitching prospect behind Price?
Jim Callis: Bumgarner.
cedric (boston): hey...we all thought Tony was dead, too...that's all I'm
sayin'
Jim Callis: OK, I'll give you that, but Curtis ain't coming back. He's dead.
Aaron (Cincinnati): 2009 stat line for Jay bruce?
Jim Callis: .278, 24 HR.
Kyle (OH): Brien Taylor or David Price?
Jim Callis: Price was much, much more polished at similar stages of their
careers.
Chip (Richmond, VA): Orioles- pieces in place to make a run at the playoffs
in the next couple of years, OR, pieces in place to make a run at 3rd place
in the AL East in the next couple years?
Jim Callis: More the latter.
Pete, Cincy, OH: Hosmer or Anderson (Lars)?
Jim Callis: Hosmer.
Dom: What kind of a player is OF Kentrail Davis, and where do you see him
going in the draft? Any chance he slides to the Yankees?
Jim Callis: Athletic LF type. He is a Scott Boras client, but he probably won't
get to the Yankees.
Jim Callis: That's it for today. See you next week. Check for early draft and
college preview coverage at baseballamerica.com in the next few days!
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