[情報] Organizational Rankings, Part 1, 16-20
※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板]
作者: Belladonaa () 看板: MLB
標題: [情報] Organizational Rankings, Part 1
時間: Wed Mar 18 20:55:56 2009
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8629
Future Shock, Organizational Rankings, Part 1
by Kevin Goldstein
16. Kansas City Royals
Last Year's Ranking: 22
Why They Might Be Better Than This: We haven't seen what Eric Hosmer is capable
of in a full season; Kila Ka'aihue's tremendous 2008 campaign was for real;
young arms like those of Tim Melville, Daniel Gutierrez, and Mike Montgomery
provide plenty of cause for optimism.
Why They Might Be Worse: Mike Moustakas might not really be an infielder;
Daniel Cortes' inconsistency continues to frustrate; after the big two sluggers
in the system, their team is rail-thin as far as position players.
Outlook For 2010: The Royals don't have a top three pick for the first time in
five years, but even the 12th overall pick should net them a significant
talent; they have so many young players with room for growth that it's hard to
see them moving anywhere but up next year.
17. Seattle Mariners
Last Year's Ranking: 23
Why They Might Be Better Than This: Greg Halman's tools are ridiculously good;
Phillippe Aumount was treated with kid gloves last year and is just scratching
the surface of his abilities; now that he's signed, 2008 first-round pick
Joshua Fields could develop quickly as the team's closer of the future.
Why They Might Be Worse: Halman's strikeout rate is equally ridiculous; while
they're a minority, there is still a vocal group of scouts who thinks Aumont
profiles better as a reliever; Carlos Triunfel is way overrated.
Outlook For 2010: With the second pick in this year's draft, the Mariners
should get an instant elite-level player in the organization this summer, while
they have few rookie possibilities for 2009; after moving up seven spots from
last year, they could be in line for an equally impressive jump next year.
18. New York Mets
Last Year's Ranking: 28
Why They Might Be Better Than This: The system is improved and has room for
even more growth, as six of their Top 11 prospects spent 2008 in short-season
leagues, with Latin American infielders Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte both
receiving raves from scouts; Brad Holt could be a real steal from the 2008
draft; Ike Davis' miserable debut could be a fluke.
Why They Might Be Worse: Davis' debut was so bad that they can't just write it
off; the defensive home of fellow 2008 first-rounder Reese Havens is still
uncertain; Holt needs to improve his secondary stuff to avoid being categorized
as a reliever; will Fernando Martinez ever stay healthy for an entire year?
Outlook For 2010: Unless something strange happens with Martinez, all of these
prospects should still be here come next year, which should move the Mets into
the upper half of baseball after years spent near the bottom.
19. Cincinnati Reds
Last Year's Ranking: 7
Why They Might Be Better Than This: Their big investment in Latin America has
delivered a pair of high-ceiling outfielders in Yorman Rodriguez and Juan
Duran; Drew Stubbs made significant progress on his contact issues; Chris
Valaika's lack of tools underrates him, because he can really hit.
Why They Might Be Worse: Yonder Alonso's struggles versus lefties turns into a
real problem; 2007 first-round pick Devin Mesoraco doesn't recover from a
sloppy full-season debut; is there a pitcher in the entire system worth getting
excited about?
Outlook For 2010: With another top ten pick (eighth overall), Cincinnati gets a
shot at adding another premium talent to the system, and after producing so
much quality big-league talent last year, the system can afford a little
patience.
20. Minnesota Twins
Last Year's Ranking: 18
Why They Might Be Better Than This: Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks give the Twins
two premium center-field prospects where plenty of organizations have none;
Angel Morales' power is real; a core philosophy of their system that tends to
favor command over stuff leaves their arms consistently underrated in scouting
circles.
Why They Might Be Worse: While their top five prospects are all position
players, the drop-off from there among hitters is massive; Deolis Guerra, one
of the biggest names in the Johan Santana deal, faces a make-or-break year; top
pitching prospect Shooter Hunt's command troubles hinder his development.
Outlook For 2010: A big year from Hicks and some of the 2008 draftees shining
in their full-season debuts could move the system up in these rankings.
The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.
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※ 編輯: Belladonaa 來自: 118.160.64.65 (03/18 20:59)
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