[情報] San Diego Padres Top 5 (Mike Rogers)

看板Prospect作者Westmoreland (Westmoreland)時間15年前 (2009/04/21 02:42)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/04/18/san-diego-padres-top-5 San Diego Padres Top 5 by Mike Rogers and Project Prospect / April 18, 2009 1. Kyle Blanks -- Blanks is a behemoth who's body type lends itself more to blocking the blindside of a quarterback than hitting a baseball, but he's good at that, too. He has moved one level per year thus far, and improved his wOBA's along the way: .365 in Low-A Fort Wayne, .393 in High-A Lake Elsinore and topped out at .396 in Double-A San Antonio last year. He's a first baseman which limits his prospect status a bit, but Blanks can mash more than enough to be an above-average first baseman and he's pretty athletic given his size (6'6'', 270). For what it's worth, he has averaged -4 runs per 150 games over the last three seasons on defense, though he made big strides last year -- defensive data's prone to fluctuations, so the +11 in 2008 may not be reliable. 2. Matt Antonelli -- Antonelli was the buzz of second base prospects this time last year and ranked 30th our 2008 top 150. But a very down year in really put a dent into his prospect status leaving him in flux among prospect fans. We're still a believer though, despite his .304 wOBA in Triple-A. Antonelli's walk rate has remained constant at a very good 13-14% throughout his minor league career. And his 16.0% (AA/AAA) strikeout rate is solid. Look for his .252 batting average on balls in play to improve in 2009 -- he added a lot of muscle entering 2008 (according to Baseball America) which may have slowed him down. We think his body could be in better baseball shape this year, allowing him to bolster his wOBA and reestablish himself as one of the preeminent second base prospects -- if not the best -- in the game by the end of the year. Antonelli opened the 2009 season with an undisclosed injury. Expect him to join Triple-A Portland once healthy. 3. Mat Latos -- Latos has thrown just 112.1 innings since being drafted in the 11th round of the 2006 Draft. Signed as a draft-and-follow, he's battled injuries but his stuff is very good. With an ideal 6-foot-6, 215-pound frame and athleticism, he's a scouts dream. When he did get on the field, he showed why his mid-90's fastball and great slider (editor's note: see previous source) were so lauded, as he struck out 29.7% of the 2008 batters he faced while walking just 5.6% (232 TBF). With his injury history (shoulder, oblique, ankle), there's certainly a chance that Latos will end up as a reliever rather than a starter in the pros. If he can stay healthy, Latos could turn into a top-of-the-rotation arm. 4. Kellen Kulbacki -- Kulbacki had a legendary career at James Madison University that landed him in the San Diego organization after he was selected 40th overall in the 2007 draft. He hit pretty well in 261 plate appearances after signing in 2007, posting a .375 wOBA. He really struggled in his first 73 Low-A plate appearances of the 2008 campaign, but the Padres still felt a promotion was appropriate. Kulbacki responded by posting a .430 High-A wOBA -- albeit in the hitters-haven known as the Cal League. Still, we feel he's a legitimate corner outfielder prospect. His arm plays best in left field, but there's a chance he could stick in right. As an advanced college hitter with solid strike zone judgment, he should move quickly and add to the glut of corner outfielders in San Diego. 5. Allan Dykstra -- Unfortunately for Allan Dykstra, he was born in the wrong year. Despite his talent, Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace, David Cooper, and Ike Davis were all selected ahead of him in the 2008 Draft. Dykstra has good knowledge of the strike zone, and my adjusted college numbers put him at third in the Atlantic Coast Conference in adjusted wOBA last season at .509 -- behind Buster Posey (.595) and Alonso (.521). Dykstra also hit for very good power, .331 adjusted isolated power at the neutral ballpark of Wake Forest in 2008 -- third in the conference. Like Kyle Blanks, Dykstra's a hulk of a man (6'5'', 240 pounds) and he posses plus-plus power -- his greatest attribute. He has a solid chance of being an average first baseman in the major leagues, but I'd bet on him being even better than that. Dykstra's degenerative hip condition has been widely reported. He was limited by a wrist injury -- that he sustained last season -- during minor league spring training. HM. Jaff Decker -- Decker doesn't have a hulking frame, but his bat is on par with any of those in the system when it comes to upside. Taken in the supplemental round of the 2008 Draft (42nd overall) out of Sunrise Mountain, Arizona, Decker hit incredibly well in rookie ball. His 211 plate appearance sample was bolstered by an unreal .447 BABIP, but he still showed great poise at the plate and the patience necessary to supplement his power -- 54 walks (25.6%) vs. 36 strikeouts (17.1%), .194 isolated power. I think he fits a Matt Stairs circa the late 1990's with the Oakland A's mold. Short, stocky guy with a good bat and the capability of hitting close to 30 home runs a season. Decker has been sidelined this spring due to a concussion. HM. Jeremy McBryde -- McBryde doesn't get a lot of love in the prospecting world, but he throws hardand has a couple of solid secondary offerings. We think there's definitely something to like here. Signed as a draft-and-follow after being taken in the 26th round of the 2006 Draft, McBryde doesn't have enormous upside, but there's enough there to make him interesting. He only got better as the year dragged on in 2008, improving his strikeout and ground-ball rates from June through August. He could become a No. 3 or No. 4 starter, or a solid arm out of the bullpen at the major league level. HM. Will Inman -- Inman is someone who we have believed in despite standing alone at times on our rankings of him. However, since moving into Double-A, Inman's had command problems, posting walk rates of 11.1% (173 TBF, Double-A Huntsville of the Brewers system), 9.2% (171 TBF, Double-A San Antonio of the Padres system) and 12.3% (567 TBF, Double-A San Antonio). The walks are a great concern and really limit any upside he has to that of a back-of-the-rotation arm. The above-average strikeout rates are still nice -- especially in a hitter's league like the Texas League -- but aren't nearly enough to compensate for his walk problem. HM. Cedric Hunter -- Hunter could be the center fielder of the future in San Diego. An average runner, Hunter is a very good contact hitter who's not going to put on power displays. He had a stellar 2008 campaign, improving across the board from 2007 in the Midwest League -- better K:BB ratio, improved rate stats, and improved wOBA. But the 2006 3rd rounder likely benefited from a move into the California League. Still, he has the potential to someday be a big-league regular. HM. James Darnell -- Perhaps overshadowed by teammate Justin Smoak, James Darnell had a great career with the South Carolina Gamecocks. A down junior season left him available when the Padres turn came up in the fourth round in 2008. He signed late and despite a long layoff, he had a great -- yet mostly insignificant -- 78 plate appearance showing in rookie ball (.442 wOBA). Darnell lacks lateral quickness, which doesn't spell good things for him staying at third base in pro ball. His bat, however, will play at any corner position, though there are concerns about his K:BB ratio. It went the wrong way from his sophomore to his junior season (11.4% K, 16.6% BB as a sophomore; 15.3% K, 13.0% BB). If that decline was a result of a slow start, and not indicative of his true talents going forward, Darnell's an excellent sleeper. He could rise quickly in prospect status to become an above-average right fielder. At best, he could turn into an above-average third baseman. HM. Adys Portillo -- It's hard to gauge how good a teenager who has yet to throw in a competitive game stateside really is. But Adys Portillo definitely has been getting rave reviews. A 17-year-old who throws hard, he has fringy secondary offerings at the moment. This is not surprising for raw Latin American teenagers who sign for big bucks like the $2.0 million Portillo got from the Padres. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.69.131