[情報] New York Mets Top 5 (Sullivan)
http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/03/26/new-york-mets-top-5
New York Mets Top 5
by Brett Sullivan / March 26, 2009
Fernando Martinez – The youngest player in Double-A in 2007 and 2008,
Fernando Martinez is fresh off his best professional stint since Low-A ('06).
Though his production still hasn’t matched up with his hype, the 6-foot-1
lefthanded outfielder is progressing in some areas of his game. His .145 isoP
('08) was up from .106 in Double-A in 2007, although still down from his
breakout 2006 campaign (.194) -- note that he had his hamate bone removed in
2007. He’s been consistent in his rates (7.0 BB%, 19.0 K% in '08) and hit
more line drives last season (19%) than he has at any point in his career.
Martinez made modest improvements in translating his raw speed to baseball
speed last season. Still, if he sticks at center field in the bigs, he'll
likely be one of the worst center fielders in baseball. Age is still the
biggest factor on Martinez’ side. He’s young enough that he can evolve into
a very good major leaguer, but he will need to considerably raise his
performance on the field if he is going to reach his ceiling.
Wilmer Flores – Not many 17-year-olds who have the type of season that
Wilmer Flores did in 2008. The Venezuelan was one of the Appalachian League’
s best hitters, putting up a .375 wOBA over 245 PA. He combined legit power
(.180 isoP, 8 HR) with the ability to make tons of contact (10.6 K%) at the
level. But in what we’ve seen so far, Flores can stand to be more patient at
the plate (4.5 BB%). Though he was overmatched during a 32 plate appearance
stint in short-season ball, the current shortstop displayed just about
everything else you are looking for from a potential star. He’s likely to
outgrow shortstop. Still several years away from the bigs, Flores could hit
his way up the Mets' chain rapidly and become a household name at some point.
Jon Niese – Niese showed breakout potential in 2007 when he posted a 3.41
FIP and 19.1 K% in High-A as a 20-year-old. And breakout is what Niese did in
2008, as he climbed two minor league levels and wound up getting 14.0 major
league innings to boot. The 6-foot-3 lefthander has shown that he could
eventually be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. Niese
began 2008 in Double-A where he was one of the Eastern League’s best (8.4
BB%, 21.5 K%, 52 GB% 3.08 FIP, 521 TBF). He moved to Triple-A late in the
season where his numbers took a slight hit (19.2 K%, 4.42 FIP) -- identical
walk rate. He had a 5.11 FIP in the majors (69 TBF). Niese will be 22 for
most of the 2009 season. Even if he doesn’t crack the Mets rotation before
the All-Star Break, he is likely to get more than a handful of starts prior
to the end of the year.
Nick Evans – Already with some major league experience under his belt, Nick
Evans has the bat to be a major league contributor as soon as the 2009
season. Evans' above-average power bat (.252 IsoP in AA) definitely has a
future in the big leagues. He was a force last year as a 22-year-old in
Double-A (.403 wOBA in 323 PA), though his Double-A walk and strikeout rates
weren't anything special (8.0% and 19.8%, respectively). Evans is a first
baseman who primarily played left during his time with the Mets last season
(.301 wOBA in 119 PA). Even if Evans starts the 2009 season in the minors,
he'll likely spent some time in the big leagues over the next few seasons as
a replacement level or better first baseman.
Jefry Marte – Like Wilmer Flores, Jefry Marte showed no problems
transitioning to professional baseball as a 17-year-old. The Dominican native
put up an impressive performance Gulf Coast League (.400 wOBA, .204 IsoP,
7.4% BB, 16.0% K, 163 PA). One thing that may have contributed to Marte’s
incredible success was his unsustainable .381 BABIP. Still, a kid with the
raw ability that Marte showed in 2008 is one to follow very closely. He has a
chance to turn into one of the top prospects in the minors.
Ike Davis (3/22/87) – Here you have a guy who was an exceptional college
hitter but over the course of 235 short-season plate appearances, couldn’t
hit a lick (.293 wOBA, 9.8% BB, 18.3% K, .071 IsoP). Davis’ prospect status
currently hinges on his ability to translate his college success (12.4% BB,
13.6% K) to pro ball. The 18th overall pick of the 2008 Draft, Davis missed
time during his final college season with a ribcage and hamstring injuries.
He exhibited next to no speed during his pro debut, though he was a solid
runner in college. Davis isn't nearly as polished as guys like Justin Smoak,
Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, or Yonder Alonso, but he's a college hitter who
could eventually become an average or better big leaguer.
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