[情報] Los Angeles Dodgers Top 5 (Sullivan)
http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/03/04/los-angeles-dodgers-top-5
Los Angeles Dodgers Top 5
by Brett Sullivan
March 4, 2009
Ivan De Jesus -- De Jesus has yet to consistently show power. But he did
finish the 2008 season with five home runs in August (125 PA). A shortstop
with outstanding discipline (13.6% BB in '08) and solid contact ability
(14.5% K) generally has a great chance to be a valuable major leaguer, though
the numbers say De Jesus isn't a good bet to stick at the position. The
21-year-old broke out last year in Double-A, as he posted a .371 wOBA as the
19th-youngest player at the level. De Jesus' .381 '08 BABIP isn't likely to
be sustainable, as he's an average runner without above-average line-drive
rates. Unfortunately, De Jesus broke his left leg in a spring training game
earlier this week, and could miss the entire 2009 season.
James McDonald -- A former minor league outfielder, 24-year-old James
McDonald is older than most elite pitching prospects. The lanky 6-foot-5
righthander should be an important factor for the Dodgers in 2009, but
whether he's in the rotation or the bullpen remains to be seen. McDonald has
had stretches of minor league dominance. He has posted strong K/BB ratios
throughout his career (2.85 in 171.1 AA IP, 4.0 in 22.0 AAA IP), and has
consistently maintained low home-run rates despite a tendency to allow fly
balls (35% in 2008). His arsenal also draws plenty of strikeouts from
opposing hitters (27.1% since 2007). McDonald has a combination of
above-average upside and a high floor -- solid command (7.8% BB since '07).
It's likely that he will be a big league contributor on the mound for years
to come.
Scott Elbert -- When healthy, Elbert has dominated opposing batters
throughout his minor league career. Major emphasis on the term “when healthy
”, as the 23-year-old missed the majority of the 2007 and 2008 season due to
shoulder surgery. Despite command issues, Elbert is a high-upside lefthander
who could be a staple in the Dodgers bullpen or rotation by 2010, and
possibly sooner. A former first-rounder (17th overall in '04), Elbert had
back-to-back excellent seasons between Low and High-A (27.5 K%, 261.0 IP
combined; '05-'06). He was impressive in his return 2008, striking out 28.2%
while walking 12.3% in 41.1 Double-A innings on his way to earning a
late-season MLB call-up. Elbert has walked 13.1% of the full-season league
batters he's faced over his pro career. Getting a grip on his control and
staying healthy will be the major factors in determining the type of role and
impact Elbert will have.
Ethan Martin – Not many pitching prospects have a home run derby title under
their resume, but that is the type of athlete Martin is. The first
high-school pitcher selected in the 2008 draft (15th overall), Martin’s
ability on the mound likely will outweigh his power with the stick. Featuring
a low-to-mid-90’s fastball, and two other potential above-average pitches,
the 6-foot-3, 200-pounder is certainly a high-upside prospect, although he is
untested at the professional level. When you couple the fact that he is
already 19 years old with the Dodger’s aggressive promotional approach,
Martin could be a rapid riser through the system despite having yet to pitch
a pro inning after undergoing knee surgery last summer.
Andrew Lambo – It wasn’t Lambo's bat that scouts questioned prior to the
2007 Draft. His makeup -- immaturity -- was a key reason for why he fell to
the 4th round. But Lambo has done nothing but hit since being drafted, and
the 20-year-old has already reached Double-A. Lambo is not spectacular in any
one area; he’s a lefthander with solid power and decent plate discipline.
His value at the next level will be dependent on whether or not he can remain
an outfielder and make consistent contact. Lambo raked in the GCL in 2007
(.415 wOBA) before splitting time in Low-A and Double-A last season. He was
solid in the Midwest League, walking 8.0% and striking out 21.2% with a .173
isoP and .348 wOBA. His power took off following a late-season promotion to
the Southern League (.361 isoP, 38 PA). He could start 2008 in Double-A,
where he'd have a chance to really breakout statistically.
Chris Withrow – People are beginning to get anxious to see Chris Withrow
pitch over an extended period. The 6-foot-3 righthander has thrown a grand
total of 14.1 innings since being drafted 20th overall in 2007. Nonetheless,
Withrow’s ability to throw in the low-90’s and potential plus curve are
keeping him on the radar. Injuries have followed Withrow in his short career,
including a bizarre one -- he cut his hand in early 2008 mishandling a
snorkeling mask. A sore elbow followed, and kept him out until August.
Withrow ended up facing only 18 batters in 2008. Like Ethan Martin, Withrow
is only 19 years old, so there's plenty of time for him to get on track. He
could also be a fast riser through the system, and will likely spend a good
part of 2009 in Low-A.
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