[情報] San Francisco Giants Top 5 (Foster)
http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/03/05/san-francisco-giants-top-5
San Francisco Giants Top 5
by Adam Foster
March 5, 2009
Madison Bumgarner -- A hitting-starved team, the Giants made a statement when
they selected Madison Bumgarner ahead of Jason Heyward, Matt Dominguez and
Beau Mills in the 2007 draft. Twenty-two months have since passed, and I
doubt many people would fault them for their decision -- I'm sure more than a
few would prefer Heyward, though. Bumgarner is an athletic, 6-foot-4,
215-pound lefty with a plus-plus fastball and a secondary that's just that:
secondary. Go check for Bumgarner on your favorite prospect publication's
2007 Top 100. Unless we're your pick, you probably won't find him. Entering
last season, we were well aware of the fact that Bumgarner's dad did not
allow him to throw a breaking ball until he was 16. He turned 16 the fall
after his sophomore season in high school, leaving him with two prep seasons
to develop a breaking ball. Barry Zito, on the other hand, started throwing
his curve when he was in Huggies. We saw Bumgarner as a great athlete with a
great fastball, which led -- and still leads -- us to believe that he'll be
able to learn to perfect keeping hitters off-balance with his breaking ball
and changeup.
Bumgarner still hasn't thrown a pitch above Low-A, but he could conquer
multiple levels in 2009. He dominated the South Atlantic League last season
(29.4% K, 4.0% BB, 44% GB). We see his low walk rate as an additional
indicator that he's able to command his secondary pitches. An intimidator on
the mound who has shown signs that he's maturing into a polished pitcher
quickly, Bumgarner has ace upside that he could begin recognizing in the bigs
as soon as 2010.
Buster Posey -- Posey joined Gordon Beckham as one of 2008's biggest NCAA
breakout hitters. A 6-foot-2, 190-pound catcher, Posey is an exceptional
contact hitter with a good batting eye and decent power. The biggest pro
sample that we have for Posey is from Hawaii (.054 IsoP, 8.3% BB, 17.9% K in
84 PA). That's not a sample that we feel very comfortable drawing conclusions
from, but we're hesitant to think of Posey as more than a gap-to-gap power
hitter right now. Still, his bat could be above-average for an up-the-middle
defender.
Tim Alderson -- Alderson proved that he was among the most polished prep arms
in the 2007 draft with his impressive pro debut. A guy who didn't pitch out
of the windup in high school, Alderson struck out 21.3% of the 581 High-A
batters he faced while walking 5.9% and inducing ground balls 45% of the
time. His 145.1-inning workload makes him a legitimate option to start some
big league games in 2009. We wouldn't be at all surprised to see Alderson
open 2010 in the Giants' rotation. The 6-foot-6, 217-pound righty's relative
lack of strikeouts leads us to question his upside. Entering the draft, his
fastball was considered slightly above-average, his curve a potential plus
pitch and his command plus-plus (source). Sans David Price, Alderson may be
the safest bet in the minors to turn out a lengthly big league career. Even
if he doesn't wind up being an ace, he could be an above-average starter for
over a decade.
Angel Villalona -- I still crack up when I read the San Francisco Chronicle's
sub-headline about the Giants signing Villalona: 16-year-old holds 40/40
promise. Someone took an awful piece of information and ran with it.
Villalona is to baby fat what Pablo Sandoval is to roly-poly. The 6-foot-3,
200-pounder's prospect calling card is his power upside -- .172 IsoP as a
teenager last year in full-season ball. He's not fast. He's not a great bet
to be an above-average defender. He's not a disciplined hitter (3.6% BB last
year). Power is sexy. Villalona's floor isn't. Though he was the 2nd-youngest
player in Low-A last season, he only managed a .321 overall wOBA. Villalona
supporters can pretend he finished with an awesome August last year all they
want, but the reality is his .351 BABIP from that month (16% LD) was likely
more a product of bad defense, rough infields, and good luck than any kind of
breakout. Villalona's youth and raw power have helped him become one of the
most overhyped prospects in baseball. I see Villalona as a poor bet to ever
surface as an above-average regular.
Conor Gillaspie (7/17/87) -- According to a study done by our own Lincoln
Hamilton, Gillaspie was one of the most productive hitters in the NCAA last
year. He had an elite strikeout rate (8.09% vs. Posey's 8.92%), walked a
decent amount (13.97% vs. Posey's 17.54%), and didn't hit for much power.
Gillaspie did, however, register as one of the most efficient base runners
among the elite college bats in the 2008 draft class. The 6-foot-1, 200 pound
lefthanded hitter logged 105 plate appearances between rookie ball and
short-season ball in his pro debut. He was not impressive during this small
sample of trips to the plate (.075 IsoP, 11.4% BB, 13.3% K, average runner).
At lease one scouting voice doesn't see him as more than a potential adequate
defender. Due to his strong contact skills, we see Gillaspie as a sound bet
to become a big leaguer. His ceiling appears to be pretty limited, though.
Nick Noonan (5/4/89) -- The 32nd overall pick of the 2007 draft, Noonan is a
physically mature teenager with good power for a middle infielder. If he
cannot stick at second base -- and he may not be able to -- then his upside
will take quite a hit. Noonan put up a .137 isolated power, 4.5% walk rate,
and 18.5% strikeout rate in Low-A last season. He was outstanding in 121
August plate appearances (.200 IsoP, 10.7% BB, 19.0% K). High-A San Jose is a
tough place to hit, so hopefully Noonan's overall California League numbers
won't be too skewed and we can get a better idea of the kind of player he is.
I have Noonan as a guy with above-average speed. This may be more a factor of
his good instincts than raw speed. Noonan is a 2009 breakout candidate. If he
can continue to improve his walk rate and defense, he could enter 2010 as the
top second base prospect in baseball.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.160.69.131
Prospect 近期熱門文章
PTT體育區 即時熱門文章
87
307