[情報] St. Louis Cardinals Top 5 (Loberstein)
http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/03/03/st-louis-cardinals-top-5
St. Louis Cardinals Top 5
by Adam Loberstein
March 3, 2009
Colby Rasmus -- This time last year, Rasmus was jockeying with Jay Bruce for
the rights to the No. 1 slot on our Top 150 prospect list. This year, things
are different. The No. 28 overall pick in the 2005 draft, Rasmus missed a
good chunk of the 2008 season due to injury (knee, groin). When he wasn't
hurt, he was struggling, posting a .251/345/.396 vital in 386 Triple-A plate
appearances. That said, Rasmus did have a .397 wOBA in Double-A as a
21-year-old a year prior and has always displayed excellent plate discipline
(12% walk rate or higher in High-A, Double-A and Triple-A). He also projects
as a solid defensive center fielder. If he can stay healthy and regain some
of his power (.276 IsoP in '07 vs. .145 in '08), his stock could return to
its '08 preseason form.
Brett Wallace -- Someone forgot to tell Wallace there's supposed to be a
learning curve between playing college ball and the professional ranks.
Selected No. 13 overall in June's draft, Wallace went .337/.427/.530 in his
first 234 plate appearances, splitting time between Low-A and Double-A. The
6-foot-1, 245-pounder out of Arizona State then returned to the state where
he played collegiately to go .309/.381/.585 in 103 Arizona Fall League plate
appearances. Speed, however, will never be Wallace's ally. He's Billy Butler
slow, meaning he'll probably have a .290-.315 BABIP in the majors; he was at
.387 in the minors. While his glove at third base may raise questions, his
bat alone could be enough to earn him a trip to the big leagues by season's
end.
Daryl Jones -- Jones wasn't much of a prospect entering the 2008 season. By
the end of it, he was on everyone's radar. The 5-foot-11, 180-pounder
followed up a lackluster 2007 campaign (.275 wOBA in 479 Low-A PA) with an
impressive '08 showing (.383 wOBA in 503 PA between High-A, Double-A). A 2005
third-rounder, Jones maintained a strong 10.9% walk ratio go along with his
adequate power display (.167 IsoP; .210 in 151 Double-A PA). He has a chance
of becoming an above-average corner outfielder.
Lance Lynn -- If size really does matter, then Lynn's covered. Standing
6-foot-5 and weighing in at 260 pounds, Lynn was a sandwich round selection
(No. 39 overall) in June's draft. The hefty righty threw 26.2 innings between
Short-Season and Low-A, displaying good control (5.6% BB rate) and the
ability to strike hitters out (27.1% K rate). Lynn has good sink on his
fastball, but that didn't equate to ground balls last season (40% GB).
Although he doesn't bring dominating stuff with him to the hill, Lynn has the
kind of command necessary to be a middle-of-the-rotation-type starter.
Chris Perez -- It looks like St. Louis' closer of the future is being given a
chance to become its closer of the present. After saving seven big league
games in 11 tries last season, Perez will likely be the Cardinals' fulltime
stopper in 2009. The 6-foot-4, 225-pounder can rack up the strikeouts; he had
a 23.7% strikeout rate in the bigs (41.2 IP) after putting up a 36.2% rate in
Triple-A (25.1 IP). He's had control problems, though, posting a walk rate of
11.4% or higher at each level as a professional.
Bryan Anderson (12/16/86) -- Anderson has always had youth on his side. So
while his .324 wOBA from a season ago doesn't look too impressive, the fact
that he was guiding a pitching staff as one of the youngest players in
Triple-A is. A 2005 fourth-rounder, Anderson showed solid on base ability
last year (11.7% BB), but very little power (.098 IsoP). If Anderson, who
played the entirety of the 2008 season as a 21-year-old, can develop a bit
more power with age, he could develop into a league-average catcher.
Richard Castillo (10/11/89) -- Signed as an international free agent last
February, Castillo has started his professional career off on the right foot.
A native of Venezuela, Castillo showed strikeout potential (23.3%) while
displaying solid control (7.4% BB rate) in 95.0 innings between Low-A and
High-A in 2008 -- as an 18-year-old (he skipped rookie ball entirely). The
5-foot-11, 165-pound righty can throw both his fastball and curveball for
strikes, and will go to his curve regardless of the count.
Jess Todd (4/20/86) -- When you break down Todd's numbers, it's hard to look
at them without thinking middle-of-the-rotation starter. A 6-foot, 210-pound
righty, Todd showed decent strikeout (20.0%) and ground ball (53%) ability
while maintaining an impressive 5.9% walk rate in 103.0 Double-A innings. His
control dropped noticeably in Triple-A (11.5%), but that was in a very small
sample (22.2 IP). Todd's numbers could taper off a bit in 2009, though, as he
had a .247 BABIP in Double-A. It's possible Todd could find his way to St.
Louis by the end of the season, although he'll likely spend a the majority of
his 2009 campaign in Triple-A Memphis.
Jason Motte (6/22/82) -- Motte is old by prospect standards. That doesn't
mean you should overlook him. A former catcher, Motte has only been pitching
professionally for three years. He was dominant in Triple-A last year,
recording an overpowering 110 strikeouts versus 26 walks in just 66.2 innings
(37.9% K, 9.0% BB). He then went on to throw 11.0 spectacular September
innings with the Cardinals (40.0% K, 7.5% BB, 40 TBF)). With Perez and Motte,
it looks like the end of the St. Louis bullpen could be in good shape for
years to come.
Pete Kozma (4/11/88) -- Kozma numbers from his first full professional season
don't jump off the page at you, but that doesn't mean there's anything wrong
with them. The No. 18 overall pick in the 2007 draft, Kozma posted a solid
.339 wOBA to go along with a 10.4% walk rate in 434 Low-A plate appearances.
He finished out the season with a lackluster showing in a limited High-A
sample (.195 wOBA in 94 PA). The 6-foot-1, 180-pounder is said to have
surprising pop for someone his size, but had a hard time showing it in 2008
(.103 IsoP). If he can develop some power to go along with his on base
ability and adequate defense, there's a chance Kozma could become an
above-average major league shortstop.
Jaime Garcia (7/8/86) -- Garcia has always picked up a ton of ground balls.
It's everything else he's had trouble being consistent with. The lefty has
posted a ground ball rate of at least 55% at every level he's pitched, and
finds himself in the 60+% range more often than not. Garcia's strikeout
rates, however, have been all over the map, ranging from 16.0% to 28.3% --
the 28.3% came in Double-A last year, before he fell back to 19.0% and 11.6%
in Triple-A and the majors, respectively. Additionally, his commond has
gotten worse as he's ascended through the minors; his walk rate was at 5.3%
in Low-A and High-A, but increased to 9.5% across three levels last season.
In short, Garcia has the potential to be a No. 3 starter, possibly even a No.
2. Whether he can learn to manage his inconsistencies and live up to that
potential, though, remains to be seen. He'll miss much or all of the 2009
season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
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