[情報] Toronto Blue Jays Top 5 (Jim Hafer)
http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/02/26/toronto-blue-jays-top-5
Toronto Blue Jays Top 5
by Jim Hafer and Adam Foster
February 26, 2009
Travis Snider -- The future is now for Snider and the Jays. The 14th overall
pick in 2006 out of high school, Snider figures to spend much of 2009 in
Toronto. He’s a powerful hitter with good bat speed, the ability to hit to
all fields, and solid patience. The lefty batted .275/.358/.481 over three
minor league stops before a September callup last season, in which he
produced a .344 wOBA (80 PA) -- .361 wOBA overall. A potential
middle-of-the-order threat, Snider's primary weakness at the plate has been
strikeouts (27.7% last season). So it's unlikely that he'll be much of an
average hitter in the bigs. Though he's not a fast runner, Snider’s arm is
strong enough to play in right field. Still, he's a big enough guy
(5-foot-11, 245 pounds) that he may eventually find himself in a designated
hitter role. Snider may see some time in Triple-A to start 2009, but he
figures to spend significant time in the majors.
Brett Cecil -- Cecil’s repertoire includes a low-90s sinking fastball and a
good slider; his changeup and curve are still works in progress. He generates
plenty of groundballs (59% in 324 AA TBF) and strikeouts (26.7% career). A
closer at Maryland before he was selected 38th overall in 2007, Cecil saw his
walk rate climb from 7.1% in Double-A to 11.9% in Triple-A (135 TBF) last
season. Though his arm may not be ready to handle a full-seasons starter's
workload, he's being given a shot to win a rotation spot with the Blue Jays
this spring. Cecil has the talent to become an above-average MLB starter.
He'll likely log some experience in Triple-A before making his big league
debut.
David Cooper -- After adjusting for ballpark and competition, Cooper was a
better college hitter than Pedro Alvarez last season. Granted Alvarez was
returing from an injury, but given how under-the-radar Cooper has been, we
wanted to compare the two. The 17th overall pick out of Cal last year, Cooper
hit the ground running for the Blue Jays, succeeding across three levels
(.390 wOBA in 306 PA; SS/A/A+). He has a compact lefthanded swing and a good
eye at the plate (9.8% career BB). OK, so why wasn't this guy a Top 10
overall pick? For one, he's Billy Butler slow. Fittingly, his defense at
first base is questionable. Cooper could taste the majors as soon as 2010.
His lack of speed will limit the frequency in which he reaches base, but he
has enough power to one day turn into an average big leaguer or better.
J.P. Arencibia -- Arencibia is a mediocre contact hitter who doesn't walk but
has good power for a catcher. And he has a legitimate shot at sticking at
catcher. His below-average speed and strikeout rate (18.7% in '08) will
likely keep him from hitting for average in the big leagues. Pair that with
his 3.3% walk rate (A+/AA) and you're looking at a guy who's probably going
to be a better fantasy player than big leaguer -- that is unless he turns
into an average or better defensive catcher. Looking at hitting performances
from 2008, Arencibia's offensive ceiling may be somewhat similar to what
Kevin Kouzmannoff was last year -- not adjusting for park. We don't see
Arencibia as a good bet to become an average regular at this point, but he
was the 21st overall pick of the 2007 Draft so he clearly has upside.
Arencibia will almost certainly start 2009 in the minors. He could see time
in Toronto late in the season.
Brad Emaus -- Emaus is a good contact hitter who could supply average power
at second base. A 2007 11th rounder, he likely earned a promotion to Double-A
with a .367 wOBA Florida State League performance last season. He further
fueled his prospect status with a .333/.447/.494 showing in Hawaii (103 PA).
The problem is, he may not have the range to stick at second base. Emaus has
drawn comparisons to Ty Wiggington for his defense and swing. Look for Emaus
to continue to prove that he could someday turn into a big league starter.
Eric Eiland 9/16/88 -- Eilands has great potential but he's far from reaching
his ceiling. Taken in the 2nd round of the 2007 Draft, he posted a .299 wOBA
last season in Low-A. A speedster, Eiland has the potential to be an
excellent defender in center field, and he's a stolen base threat. For now,
Eiland will continue to work on turning his athleticism into true baseball
skills, but his ceiling remains substantial.
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