選秀偏好 大學生或高中生?
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/the_mlb_draft_c.php
一般的印象中好像都是說選大學生會是比較安全的賭注
大學生是低風險 高中生風險比較高 但是真的是這樣嗎?
這篇文章拿了2001-2003的第一輪來看看 到底是不是真的下注在大學生比較安全
他只有簡單的分養出來和養不出來 養出來普通先發和明星球員也都只是算養出來一個
下面只貼比率 詳細各個球員的分類在原文連結有
2001
野手
College Success Rate: 3/7 (43%)
High School Success Rate: 2/3 (67%)
投手
College Success Rate: 1/10 (10%)
High School Success Rate: 2/7 (29%)
2002
野手
College Success Rate: 2/5 (40%)
High School Success Rate: 6/8 (75%)
投手
College Success Rate: 4/8 (50%)
High School Success Rate: 4/7 (57%)
2003
野手
College Success Rate: 5/10 (50%)
High School Success Rate: 2/6 (33%)
投手
College Success Rate: 2/7 (29%)
High School Success Rate: 2/3 (67%)
上面的比例來看 只有2003野手的部分是大學生的成功率比較高 其他都是高中生樂勝
總計
野手
College Success Rate: 10/22 (45%)
High School Success Rate: 10/17 (59% - three undecided)
投手
College Success Rate: 7/25 (28% - one undecided)
High School Success Rate: 8/17 (47%)
這樣本的空間不大 不過大學投手的槓龜比例真的是太恐怖了
第一輪的野手大概有一半的機會可以養出像樣的東西
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