[情報] Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2010
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Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Nov 18, 2009 11:29 PM EST
Top 20 Washington Nationals Prospects for 2010.
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too
worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond
the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you
want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics
to do so. The list and grades are based on a blending of present performance
and long-term potential. Full reports on all these players can be found in
the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book.
Star-divide
1) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Grade A: He's done enough in Arizona to justify
the Grade A rating in my opinion. We have to remember that he's a human
being, but he is immensely talented.
2) Derek Norris, C, Grade B+: Somewhere on the Mickey Tettleton/Mike Napoli
spectrum: high walks, lots of power, defense should be good enough, might not
hit for average.
3) Drew Storen, RHP, Grade B+: Has put aside concerns about being an
overdraft. Could help in pen very soon, future closer if all works out.
4) Danny Espinosa, SS, Grade B: Has some pop, steals bases, draws walks, very
good glove. Scouts in Arizona love him.
5) Chris Marrero, 1B, Grade B: I don't think he's going to be a star, but
with proper development he can be a solid regular.
6) Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Grade B-: Another guy who should be solid, though I'd
like a larger pro sample size before going higher with the grade.
7) Michael Burgess, OF, Grade B-: borderline C+. Power potential, throwing
arm, and youth are big positives, will take a walk, but strikes out a lot and
batting average is quite low.
8) Justin Maxwell, OF, Grade C+: What you see is what you get: power, walks,
speed, low batting average. Can they look past that and appreciate his
secondary skills?
9) Ian Desmond, SS, Grade C+: I think he made some legitimate improvements,
but not as much as the raw numbers indicate. BABIP probably unsustainable,
and he needs to tighten his defense.
10) Bradley Meyers, RHP, Grade C+: One of several strike-throwing types with
limited upside but good pitchability.
11) Destin Hood, OF, Grade C+: High power upside, with a high chance of
failure. Could rank ninth or tenth.
12) A.J. Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Kansas State ace may move faster in relief.
13) Eury Perez, OF, Grade C+: Need data from higher levels, but could be a
Juan Pierre type. I don't mean that as an insult.
14) Aaron Thompson, LHP, Grade C+: Pitchability guy acquired from the
Marlins. No longer a top prospect, but still a decent one.
15) Juan Jaime, RHP, Grade C: High-ceiling arm with strong fastball needs to
improve secondary pitches. Could rise rapidly if he does so. Perhaps I should
go with C+.
16) J.P. Ramirez, OF, Grade C: Production was somewhat disappointing in the
New York-Penn League, but not terrible for context. Full-season data in '10
will be illuminating.
17) J.R. Higley, OF, Grade C: High-ceiling tools hound, didn't light up the
NY-P but still has potential.
18) Paul Demny, RHP, Grade C: Went 3-11 with 5.14 ERA in the Sally League,
but with 110 strikeouts in 105 innings. Could go a long way if he improves
command.
19) Marco Estrada, RHP, Grade C: I have no actual evidence to support this,
but I keep thinking he could have a surprisingly good season in 2010. Nothing
left to prove in Triple-A.
20) Jeff Mandel, RHP, Grade C: Looked very good in Arizona Fall League relief
action; he might sneak in some major league innings.
OTHERS: All Grade C: Evan Bronson, LHP; Clint Everts, RHP; Marcos Frias,
RHP; Victor Garate, LHP; Luis Garcia, RHP; Trevor Holder, RHP; Hendry
Jimenez, 2B; Taylor Jordan, RHP; Nathan Karns, RHP; Pat Lehman, RHP; Steve
Lombardozzi, 2B; Jack McGeary, LHP; Tom Milone, LHP; Adrian Nieto, C; Brad
Peacock, RHP; Atahualpa Severino, LHP; Josh Smoker, LHP; Greg Veloz, 2B; Dean
Weaver, RHP; Josh Wilkie, RHP. Most of these guys could fit into the 16-20
spots, depending on what you want to emphasize.
The Nationals system has an amazing talent in Strasburg, and I'm also very
high on Norris, Storen, and Espinosa. After that, it fades quickly. Hitters
like Marrero, Burgess, Maxwell, Desmond, Hood, and Perez all have significant
unanswered questions. All could be very good players, all could fail. There
are several low-ceiling arms who could contribute in the majors soon (Meyers,
Thompson, Estrada, Mandel, Wilkie, Garate), and there is also a group of live
arms who have problems that need addressing.
The system has material to work with, particularly on the pitching side
beyond Strasburg and Storen. They need to add bats with fewer questions, and
it will be interesting to see what direction GM Mike Rizzo and his new staff
take in the 2010 draft.
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