[情報] 2009 Independent League Top Prospects
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/independent-audit/2009/268998.html
For the fourth year, we present our survey of the top talent in the independent
leagues. After talking to scouts and independent league commissioners and
managers, here is the list of unsigned independent leaguers who may deserve a
first or second chance at affiliated ball.
Among the indy Top 10 alumni, 2007 No. 1 prospect Daniel Nava followed up his
2008 California League batting title by hitting .352/.458/.533 between the Red
Sox high Class A Salem and Double-A Portland affiliates. Last year's No. 1
signed prospect Clay Zavada jumped all the way from the Frontier League to the
Diamondbacks' big league bullpen in one year (going 3-3, 3.35 in 51 big league
innings) while fellow Frontier Leaguer Mike Benacka (No. 4 among signed
prospects) went 3-1, 2.61 with 90 strikeouts in 79 innings between Double-A
Midland and Triple-A Sacramento for the Athletics.
It's worth pointing out that these prospects are not prospects in the same
sense as the League Top 20 Prospects. While those prospects are projected to be
solid big league regulars or potential all-stars, these prospects are players
in the independent leagues who are projected as having the talent to move on to
affiliated ball with the hope that a couple of them may eventually make it to
the majors.
Players who were signed by an affiliated club before the cutoff of Aug. 13 are
not eligible for this list.
1. Reynaldo Rodriguez, 1b, Yuma (Golden)
Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt. 210.
When the Golden Baseball League announced that the Yuma club would be filled
completely with players from the Colombia Winter League, the hope was that it
would allow some lesser-known Colombian prospects show their stuff in the U.S.
No one took advantage of that more than Rodriguez, who was named the Golden
League's rookie of the year after holding his own in a league filled with
experienced Triple-A and big league veterans.
Rodriguez has already had one shot at affiliated ball. He signed with the
Yankees in 2003 as a 17-year-old and over the next four years he had solid
success in the Dominican Summer League. He finished sixth in the DSL in batting
in 2005 (.335/.400/.415) and followed it up by hitting .361/.411/.660 in the
DSL in 2007, but he was released by the Yankees later that year having played
less than 10 games in the States.
Rodriguez bounced back from his release by leading the Colombian Winter League
in batting (.378) this past winter. He kept right on hitting in the Golden
League. He finished 12th in the league in batting (.335) while showing
excellent athleticism for a first baseman. Although he showed a good glove at
first, the former catcher projects better in affiliated ball as a corner
outfielder where his tick above-average speed (18 steals in 21 attempts at
Yuma) should play and his lack of plus power will be less of a problem.
Rodriguez showed the ability to spray line drives to all fields for doubles and
triples, but he does not yet have the pull power that is usually expected out
of a first baseman.
2. Adam Frost, ss, Winnipeg (Northern)
Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 165.
Many of the best independent league finds are standout players at small
colleges who go overlooked in the draft. Frost fits part of that bill-he was a
standout at Division III St. Norbert (Wis.) College, but he didn't go
overlooked. Frost was a 21st-round pick of the Tigers in 2008. But after 41
games with the Tigers' Gulf Coast League and high Class A Lakeland affiliates,
he was released this year in spring training. The Goldeyes quickly scooped him
up and saw him become one of the league's most athletic players.
Frost played second base and third base in the first part of the season before
eventually settling in as Winnipeg's everyday shortstop where he held his own
as a 22-year-old in a league filled with veterans. There's some question
whether he can stick at shortstop in affiliated ball (he played all around the
infield with the Tigers), but his 60-65 speed on the 20-to-80 scouting scale
may play as a center fielder, where his solid average and accurate arm would
also be a good fit. Frost showed a feel for baserunning and getting jumps in
Winnipeg, but he's not a slap-and-dash hitter. He shows the ability to drive
the ball to the gaps, although his lack of size means he'll likely never have
more than below-average raw power.
3. Cephus Howard, rhp, Schamburg (Northern)
Age: 24. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 240.
He may be 25 (he's had a birthday since the season ended), but Howard is still
an extremely raw pitcher with a good reason to be unrefined. Howard was a
catcher growing up, and he didn't begin pitching until after a knee injury and
ineligibility as a senior ended his career at USC Aiken (because of a knee
injury, he never played in a college game). But even though he was new to
pitching, the Angels saw enough to draft him in the 37th round in 2007. The
Angels gave him two seasons before releasing him after a very brief stint in
high Class A Rancho Cucamonga this season.
Pitching with the Flyers, Howard showed that he's a work in progress with an
unrefined delivery but he already has shown control and should continue to
improve as he gets more accustomed to pitching. His fastball sits between
88-91, touching 93 mph and he also throws a cutter, a tight slider and an
inconsistent 12-to-6 curveball. Howard's stuff was good enough to blow away a
lot of Northern League hitters especially as the season went along. He allowed
only one hit in his final 7 2/3 innings of work while striking out six. For the
season he struck out more than a batter an inning (47 Ks in 42 IP) and had an
excellent 1.71 ERA.
4. Ben Paxton, rhp, Evansville (Frontier)
Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 200.
Coming into his final outing of the season, Paxton had a too small to see 0.23
ERA. A rough final outing (four runs in 1 2/3 innings) ballooned his final ERA
to a still amazing 1.12. Those numbers are even more impressive when you
consider that Paxton may have been a poor fit in Evansville. An extreme
groundball pitcher who relies on his defense (28 of his 34 hits allowed were
singles), Paxton was pitching in front of the second-worst defense in the
league (146 errors in 94 games) for a team that finished the season 28-66—no
other pitcher on the team had an ERA below 4.60.
But Paxton's stuff stood out as a diamond among rhinestones. Paxton went 4-1,
3.62 as a sophomore in 2007 and 1-1, 3.41 as a junior in 2008 and seemed to be
a potential senior sign as a later-round draft pick. But Paxton, who had
converted to a sidearm delivery as a sophomore, struggled with his release
point as a senior to slump to 1-1, 6.06.
Paxton adoped a higher low three-quarters delivery at Evansville. The new
release point allowed him to add some velocity (he touched some 92s) and helped
give his slider some newfound bite that made him more effective against
lefties. Paxton found that his stuff actually plays better in pro ball. His
88-89 mph fastball has a natural boring action that can break wooden bats on
pitches that were jam-job singles against metal.
5. Tim Brown, RHP, Lincoln (American Association)
Age: 22. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 200.
A lot of players grouse that they didn't get noticed in college because the
team they played for didn't get much attention. In about 99 percent of the
cases, it's not true, but in Tim Brown's case, there may be some truth to the
old cliche. Brown went 8-4, 3.71 for a Division II Pittsburg State (Kan.) team
that went 7-34 in games he didn't pitch. No other pitcher on the Gorillas
roster had an ERA below 5.62.
Understandably, Brown didn't get noticed in the draft, and it doesn't help that
he doesn't have a fastball that can blow hitters away. Instead he pitches to
contact which means his strikeout numbers are extremely unimpressive. But what
he does have is four pitches with excellent command, which he showed by making
the rather large leap from Division II to the American Association. He walked
only nine batters in 63 innings this season while going 5-1, 2.59 in 63 inning.
Along the way he showed he could throw his 88-90 mph fastball, curveball,
changeup and slider for strikes. Brown's fastball is a heavy sinker that is
hard to hit in the air, but he does lack a putaway pitch (he only struck out 27
batters), which could be more of a problem in affiliated ball.
6. Isaac Hess, lhp, Calgary (Golden)
Age: 24. B-T. L-L. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 185.
At this point Issac Hess may be the most "known" independent league prospect
out there. A member of the top 10 list last year, he's been signed by
affiliated clubs twice in the past year (by the Padres and Red Sox), but both
times concerns about his artificial hip (a result of a childhood condition)
meant he never threw a pitch in affiliated ball.
There's little doubt about his stuff—he has an 89-91 mph fastball, a solid
breaking ball and an excellent changeup. In affiliated ball he profiles more as
a lefty arm out of the bullpen where his changeup would give him the ability to
retire both lefties and righthanded hitters.
Hess this year managed to go three-for-three on independent league
championships. After winning back-to-back Frontier League titles with Windy
City, a midseason trade to Calgary helped him win his third ring in three years
with a Golden League title. Along the way, he did everything he could to
eliminate any concerns about his durability. He led the Golden League in
strikeouts and finished second in the league in innings pitched. He also threw
an inning in the Golden League all-star game on one-day's rest in an attempt to
prove that his hip isn't a hindrance. That paid off in a contract with the Red
Sox, but it also may have played a part in his diminished numbers over the
second half of the season—he gave up five or more runs in five of his last
eight starts after not giving up that many runs in any of his first 11 starts.
7. Joe Agreste, 1b, Gateway (Frontier)
Age: 22. B-T: L-L. Ht. 6-4. Wt. 190.
Agreste was drafted by the Mariners in the 32nd round in 2008 on the heels of
an outstanding junior year at West Virginia (.369/.426/.620). But he didn't
sign and his senior year was a disaster (.264/.368/.437) that ensured he went
undrafted this year. Signed by Gateway midway through the Frontier League
season, Agreste quickly put his senioritis behind him, showing good hands and a
plan at the plate.
He hit .303/.402/.537 for the Grizzlies in 175 at-bats while showing a good
glove at first base and enough speed (6.7 in the 60-yard dash) and enough arm
to be adequate as a corner outfielder.
"He was here early and here late. He had a good lefthanded swing and a good
approach—a lot better then most kids you see his age," Gateway manager Phil
Warren said.
Agreste uses the whole field well and doesn't sell out for power—his home runs
came from line drives that carried and the ball makes a different sound coming
off of his bat. His natural swing allowed him to make an easy transition to
wood bats, but he does need to learn to pull the ball when pitchers try to bust
him inside. At 6-foot-4, 195 pounds he also needs to add some weight and
strength to unlock his full power potential.
8. Amadeo Zazueta, ss, Coastal Bend (United)
Age: 23. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-10. Wt.: 160.
Zazueta is looking for a second chance in affiliated ball, as he spent two
years in the Venezuelan Summer League and got a 28-game cameo in the
Appalachian League in 2006 before being released after hitting .171 with
Greeneville.
There are still concerns about his bat, but Zazueta's glove is good enough that
he might get a second chance with an affiliated club. After playing in the
Mexican Pacific League during the offseason, Zazueta tried to make the jump to
the Atlantic League this year, but quickly discovered that he was over his head
as a 23-year-old in the veteran-laden league.
Zazueta was quickly traded to the United League's Coastal Bend Thunder. He
found the United League much more his speed, as he hit .308 in 299 at-bats.
More importantly, he was easily the best glove in the league showing a plus arm
and excellent range.
"He can flat play shortstop," San Angelo manager Doc Edwards said. "Put him
with a manager who can work with him and he's got a chance to be a big league
shortstop."
Zazueta will still have to prove that he can hit at higher levels. He showed he
could make contact in the United League, but he struggled in his short stint in
the Atlantic League. His glove should earn him a shot in affiliated ball, but
his bat will determine whether he can stick around.
9. Stephen Fox, rhp, Sussex (Cam-Am)
Age: 23. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-6. Wt.: 225.
If indy ball tries to give overlooked players a second chance, Fox is a prime
example of the kind of players the leagues can dig up. Fox signed with Hofstra
coming out of high school but was never eligible to play. He ended up pitching
in a men's league until he decided to attend a Indy Pro Showcase tryout camp
with a former Hofstra teammate. At the tryout he showed a 91-92 mph fastball
with natural arm-side run the first day, then maintained his velocity and
movement the next day, which was enough to earn him a contract with the
Skyhawks.
As you would expect for a pitcher with no college experience and little
coaching, Fox was not a refined product when he arrived in Sussex. A month into
the season he had a 9.72 ERA. But Skyhawks pitching coach Brooks Carey worked
at getting Fox to stop opening up so early in his delivery (which caused him to
leave the ball up) and to stop falling off to first base on his follow-through.
Once he got his delivery closed up and started striding towards home plate, Fox
didn't allow an earned run in his final nine innings of work (while striking
out nine) and he had a 1.90 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 24 innings over the final
two months of the season.
"When he did get going he progressed into a pitcher from being a thrower,"
Sussex manager Hal Lanier said. "Everyone knew what we had. You could see it
from the arm. Not many guys you pick up at a tryout camp throw 91-92 with
natural movement."
Fox also throws a 11-to-5 curveball and started to develop a changeup this
season.
10. Mikael Ryder, rhp, Chico (Golden)
Age: 23. B-T: R-R. Ht. 6-0. Wt. 180.
Indy ball never lacks for command specialists who survive with guile and less
than stellar stuff. Ryder's command is impeccable, but he also showed that he
has solid stuff.
The Golden Baseball League rookie pitcher of the year led the league in ERA
(3.27 in a league where six of nine team's had ERAs above 5.00). He also walked
only seven batters in 77 innings while striking out 60. The ace starter at
Menlo College (an NAIA school) in 2008, Ryder earned a spot in the Golden
League by pitching well in the Arizona Winter League. While he started the
season, he eventually moved to the rotation, showing he belonged by shutting
out league champion Calgary with a four-hitter.
Ryder worked with an 88-91 mph fastball and a plus curveball although it was
his ability to paint the corners that kept hitters off balance all season.
Others to watch:
Greg Lane, rhp, Sussex (Can-Am); Albert Ayala, rhp, Amarillo (United);
Bryan Frichter, 3b, San Angelo (United); Blake Gailen, of, Chico (Golden);
Ross Stout, Windy City (Frontier); Eddie Tisdale, 1b, Lake Erie (Frontier);
Alberto Rolon, rhp, Lake Erie (Frontier); Josh Short, Kalamazoo (Frontier).
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