[情報] Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2010
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Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Dec 18, 2009
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too
worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond
the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you
want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players
will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order,
shipping on February 2nd!
Star-divide
1) Domonic Brown, OF, Grade B+: Borderline A-. I love this guy, but the tools
aren't quite refined yet and they need to give him a solid consolidation
season in 2010, start him off in Reading and leave him there until July no
matter what he does.
2) Trevor May, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline B. I love the upside with this arm
as demonstrated in his K/IP and H/IP ratios, but he needs to cut back on the
walks.
3) Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Grade B-: High upside arm acquired from the Mariners
but I worry about his durability and mechanics.
4) J.C. Ramirez, RHP, Grade B-: Another high upside arm acquired from the
Mariners. High Desert hurt his numbers. I've always liked him better than the
numbers indicate I should, and I think a breakout is possible in 2010.
5) Anthony Gose, OF, Grade C+: Love the speed, youth, and the athleticism.
Don't like the high strikeout rate for a guy without much power. Most
advanced of the uber-tools players collected in this system in recent drafts.
6) Sebastian Valle, C, Grade C+: Excellent power potential and very young,
but plate discipline and defense need work.
7) Domingo Santana, OF, Grade C+: Another tools guy, excellent power
production in the Gulf Coast League but plate discipline/contact could be
issues. Could rank much higher next year.
8) Tyson Gillies, OF, Grade C+: Draws walks, steals bases with outstanding
speed, good glove, fun to watch. Most of his power came at High Desert;
Double-A production could raise him to a B- or even a B. Could rank as high
as fifth if you want to value his polish over pure upside of Gose, Valle, and
Santana.
9) Jarred Cosart, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm, good stats in limited GCL sample,
negative reports about makeup are a concern but he's young enough to outgrow
that. Like Santana, could rank much higher next year.
10) Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Grade C+: I've liked the guy for awhile and expect
him to be a good pitcher, but durability problems make it more likely as a
reliever.
11) Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Grade C+: Bat was a lot more polished than
expected in the GCL. Strong power potential, could rank over Cosart and
Bastardo if you prefer hitting to pitching.
12) Scott Mathieson, RHP, Grade C+: Difficult to rank and grade. He's always
been effective when healthy and has a great arm, but at some point he's going
to run out of graftable ligaments. Could make an impact in the pen as soon as
this year.
13) Leandro Castro, OF, Grade C+: Another member of the Toolsy Outfielder Who
Might Not Hit Good Pitching Brigade. Could rank as high as eighth.
14) Brody Colvin, RHP, Grade C+: :Live arm from the '09 draft stands out as a
sleeper to me.
15) B.J. Rosenberg, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like he could be a good relief
option sometime soon.
16) Jiwan James, OF, Grade C: Hard to pick from all the raw tools guys who
can fit at the bottom of the list, but for some reason this guy sticks out at
me as one who could really take off this year.
17) Justin De Fratus, RHP, Grade C: Terrific K/BB ratio in the Sally League
with a live arm.
18) Zach Collier, OF, Grade C: He didn't hit at all last year, but I prefer
him to the even rawer Anthony Hewitt at this point.
19) Drew Carpenter, RHP, Grade C: Control artist with mediocre stuff has
nothing left to prove in the minors, but fly ball tendency might not fit well
in Philly.
20) Johan Flande, LHP, Grade C: Deceptive lefty has less upside than other
arms but could help sooner.
OTHERS (Grade C): Aaron Altherr, OF; Mike Cisco, RHP; Heitor Correa, RHP;
Kelly Dugan, OF; Sergio Escalona, LHP; Freddy Galvis, SS; Edgar Garcia, RHP;
David Herndon, RHP; Anthony Hewitt, 3B; Kyrell Hudson, OF; Austin Hyatt, RHP;
Jon Pettibone, RHP; Joe Savery, LHP; Mike Schwimer, RHP; Colby Shreve, RHP;
Mike Stutes, RHP; Steve Susdorf, OF; Jonathan Villar, SS; Matt Way, LHP;
Vance Worley, RHP.
The Phillies are interesting to write about but hard to make a list for. They
love collecting raw tools players and have a great football team at the lower
levels of the farm system, but most of these guys have very limited baseball
skills right now. Gose, Santana, Castro, and Singleton look the most
polished, but that's only in comparison to Collier, Hewitt, Altherr, and
Hudson, who don't have a clue what they are doing yet. The Phillies are
betting that they can get these guys to develop along Domonic Brown lines,
but the thing is that what Brown did over the last two years is special; most
super raw tools guys don't develop that well. My intuition is telling me that
Jiwan James could develop like Brown, but I have nothing objective to back
that up.
On the pitching side, they have a more balanced mixture of upside (May,
Cosart, Aumont, Ramirez and others) with polish (Carpenter and the batch of
potential relievers). If May can refine his command he could be a legitimate
B+/A- guy next year, but that's a big if. Mathieson is a special case; under
the right circumstances he could pull an Andrew Bailey in 2010; but he could
also languish in Triple-A and/or get hurt again.
The Halladay/Lee trade is a strong blow; losing Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud
rips the guts out of the system. Getting Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez in
return helps some but none of them are as good as the three they lost.
Overall, this system is in flux due to recent trades but still has a lot of
very interesting, if difficult to predict, talent.
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