[情報] Keith Law's organizational rankings
2011 MLB organizational rankings
The Royals top the rankings, but Tampa is surprisingly close behind
By Keith Law
As it has the past two years, this complements my annual Top 100 list of
prospects. This ranking includes only players who are still eligible for
the Top 100 prospects ranking -- that is, players who still retain
rookie status for 2011.
A system that recently "graduated" a number of top prospects -- Florida
and San Francisco are two recent examples, with Buster Posey, Mike
Stanton and Logan Morrison -- will rank lower on this list because I'm
considering only what is currently on the farm. It's a snapshot look
rather than a look back over a year or two of farm productivity. So if
you see a team at the bottom, it might be because its system recently
graduated or traded good prospects in the past year. Of course, it also
will reflect teams that just haven't done a very good job of stocking
the system.
Within each system, I considered the entire list of prospects but gave
much more weight to top prospects -- particularly high-impact prospects
-- than to organizational depth based in average to fringe-average
prospects. I also considered how much major league value each
organization is likely to produce the next few years. So a system with
high-impact prospects who are relatively close to the majors ranks high
even if the system lacks depth in second- and third-tier prospects. Of
course, a couple of impact prospects plus organizational depth is ideal.
With that all clear, on to the list:
1. Kansas City Royals
About a month or so after Dayton Moore took over as the Royals' GM, he
told me that he was alarmed to find how little pitching inventory he had
in his new farm system and that addressing that vacuum would be a major
priority for his front office. The phrase "Mission Accomplished" has
acquired an ironic connotation of late, but if anyone could use the
phrase earnestly to describe his own efforts, it would be Moore, as the
Royals have arms coming out of their ears.
That's particularly impressive when you consider that Kansas City's top
two prospects are bats, and there are some solid position player
prospects further down in the system. But what truly sets the Royals
apart, and not just this year but from prospect lists of years past, is
their stable of left-handed pitchers. Southpaws are harder to find and
valued very highly by most front offices, meaning the Royals have
promising arms for their own use as well as a hoard for future trades if
they find themselves in the running for a playoff spot. They've acquired
those arms every which way they could -- mostly through shrewd drafting
(Mike Montgomery in the sandwich round, Chris Dwyer in the fourth, John
Lamb in the fifth), but also through trades and on the international
front, where they've become major players since Moore took over. And
Kansas City will add another impact player with the fifth pick in this
year's draft, and probably will graduate only one or two prospects to
the majors before we reach 2012. It's to the credit of Moore, the
Royals' amateur scouting staff (led by J.J. Picollo after two solid
drafts by Deric Ladnier after Moore took over), their international
scouts and player development that a farm system that was a borderline
laughingstock has, inside of five years, turned into the toast of
baseball.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Probably second even before they dealt Matt Garza, they're now No. 2
with a bullet and not far behind Kansas City for No. 1. They're
absolutely loaded, with top-end talent near that of K.C., but not the
extensive depth of prospects the Royals have. The Rays have focused on
arms and impact bats in the middle of the field, mixing in the
occasional corner bat (Josh Sale), but mostly recognizing that
replacement level is so low right now for certain positions and roster
spots that there's still some hidden value to be found. They also boast
more picks in the first three rounds of the 2011 draft than any other
club, so look for the prospect-rich to get richer.
3. Atlanta Braves
Those top three Latino arms keep marching to the big leagues, and the
Braves will produce at least two other rookies who'll spend all or most
of 2011 in Atlanta in regular roles. They have a knack for getting good
young talent back in deals and signing players off the waiver wire and
scrap heap, including Arodys Vizcaino as a sort of throw-in to the
Javier Vazqueztrade.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
A year ago, I wrote that the Jays might have ranked last without the
talent infusion from the Scott Rolen and Roy Halladay trades. In the
past 12 months, they saw a few in-house guys take steps forward, traded
for another impact prospect in Brett Lawrie and had another solid draft,
to the point that I left some likely big leaguers off their Top 10 for
lack of room. The organizational turnaround in the year-plus since Alex
Anthopoulos took over as GM has been impressive. 5. Philadelphia
Phillies Their low-A club in Lakewood, N.J., was as loaded with tools
prospects as any club in the minors; you could dream on four or five of
its hitters, at least three of its starters, and even a 'pen guy or two.
And the Phillies keep stuffing the system with that sort of high-upside
player despite one of the smaller draft signing budgets around. This
after all the deals to help secure their enviable starting rotation.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
Their low-A club in Lakewood, N.J., was as loaded with tools prospects
as any club in the minors; you could dream on four or five of its
hitters, at least three of its starters, and even a 'pen guy or two. And
the Phillies keep stuffing the system with that sort of high-upside
player despite one of the smaller draft signing budgets around. This
after all the deals to help secure their enviable starting rotation.
6. Los Angeles Angels
They have the top prospect in baseball in Mike Trout, a catcher and
reliever who should help the big club in 2011, and a ton of depth in A-
ball and short-season, including a very promising haul from the 2010
draft led by infielder Kaleb Cowart and right-hander Cam (son of Steve)
Bedrosian. I know Angels fans aren't happy with the team's offseason,
but there's a lot of help on the way.
7. Minnesota Twins
A sneaky-good system, it's not loaded with big names but boasts a few
impact guys and a ton of depth. This is more than just the Twins' usual
assortment of strike-throwing fourth starters and speedy outfielders, a
testament to good drafting and some major investments in the
international arena, where they've been as aggressive as any club.
8. Cincinnati Reds
I had said in the 2009 season that they would start to compete in 2011
as the young talent reached the majors. Well, it got there faster than I
expected, and they started what should be a long run of contention,
bolstered by the next two waves of prospects. They have above-average
prospects in the middle of the diamond and a number of big-tools
teenagers from Latin America down in the low minors.
9. New York Yankees
If Gary Sanchez has a tremendous debut season, Dellin Betances and
Andrew Brackmanget healthy, and Manny Banuelos sees his stuff tick up,
they're backed up with a lot of back-end starter depth. They rival
Toronto for the best catching depth in the minors and took a couple of
intriguing guys later in the 2010 draft, one of whom I'll discuss
Friday.
10. Seattle Mariners
Top-heavy with Dustin Ackley and Michael Pineda and strangely light on
international talent below that, even though that is a historical
strength for the club. The Mariners have a couple of possible fast-
moving relievers, led by Stephen Pryor and Tyler Burgoon, who could make
an impact in the next 24 months.
11. Boston Red Sox
The Sox traded away their top two prospects for Adrian Gonzalez, but
boosted on the back end with three first-round talents added in the 2010
draft (their actual first-rounder, Kolbrin Vitek, plus Anthony Ranaudo
and Bryce Brentz). As usual, their low-minors teams were strong, with
the Greenville rotation quietly loaded with intriguing arms.
12. Texas Rangers
The top-ranked system the past two years, the Rangers used up a lot of
that talent to win the AL pennant this year, either on their roster
(Neftali Feliz, Mitch Moreland, Derek Holland) or in the Cliff Lee trade
(Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke). Still very strong in Latin
America, they were more slot-conscious than usual in the 2010 draft.
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
I admit to liking this system more than most, but I loved their 2009
draft haul and several of those players had strong full-season debuts.
Jarrod Parker's promising return in instructional league -- with
velocity as good as ever and improved lower-body strength -- is also a
factor in putting them in the top half of arm systems, given that he's
their one impact prospect who might see the majors this year.
14. St. Louis Cardinals
Extremely top-heavy, followed by a lot of extra-guy depth -- fifth
starters, quality relievers, fourth outfielders, a few of whom will take
steps forward and become solid-average big leaguers. A very productive
Day 1 in the 2010 draft boosted them.
15. Colorado Rockies
It was a tough year in 2010 for three of their top four prospects, as
well as talented but chronically hurt Hector Gomez, but I still believe
very strongly in Tyler Matzek's future, and it sounds as if Christian
Friedrich is good to go for 2011.
16. San Diego Padres
Moved up at least a half-dozen spots after the Adrian Gonzalez trade,
which made up for an unsigned top pick in 2010 and the continued
struggles and bad reports on 2009 first-rounder Donovan Tate. Like
Arizona and Milwaukee, San Diego will benefit from having an extra pick
in the 2011 draft, one that features one of the top college pitching
classes in memory and a potent high school crop to boot.
17. Cleveland Indians
Cleveland finally broke out of its slot-or-bust financial strategy in
the 2010 draft and took some fliers on guys whose stock fell after tough
springs. Within the system, the Tribe's top arm, Hector Rondon, went
down and had to have Tommy John surgery, but right-hander Jason Knapp
(acquired in the Cliff Lee trade) returned from a shoulder injury and
Jason Kipnis established himself as one of the top second-base prospects
in the game.
18. Oakland Athletics
Their top two hitting prospects had disappointing seasons, although
Chris Carter recovered in the summer and earned a call-up. There's a
fair amount of position player depth here but very little pitching, with
command lefty Ian Krol the only arm I have among their top 10 prospects.
19. Washington Nationals
This represents a ton of progress since Mike Rizzo took over as GM. He
inherited a farm system that couldn't begin to fill the major league
team's needs. Ownership opened its wallets beyond the first pick in
August, adding three more players in the team's Top 10.
20. Chicago Cubs
A top-10 system before the Garza trade, the Cubs probably would place
more guys in the 101-150 range than any organization except the Royals.
They're loaded with high-floor players who have the potential to be
above-average or better big leaguers but aren't there yet. Considering
all the picks they've given up to sign free agents, it's remarkable how
strong the system still is after the giant trade with Tampa Bay.
21. Pittsburgh Pirates
This system consists of a few high-end prospects, including three
teenage power arms, followed by a dropoff. The big investment in prep
arms in 2009 hasn't yielded any major prospects yet, although it's
early.
22. Los Angeles Dodgers
Almost every major prospect in this system regressed this year, led by
Chris Withrow, who lost his command and then his velocity by August. On
the positive side, the Zach Lee signing was huge for them.
23. San Francisco Giants
Consider that they graduated two critical members of the 2010 World
Series-winning roster. As a whole, they've been very productive near the
top of the draft despite rarely going over slot, but the lauded 2008
draft class below Buster Posey took a collective step back in 2010.
24. Baltimore Orioles
This group was probably the most surprising ranking to me as I went
through the process. The O's have produced a ton of potential impact
players who no longer qualify here -- including Brian Matusz, Matt
Wieters, Nolan Reimold, and Chris Tillman -- but the system at this
moment is two Top 30 prospects and no one else I'd put in my Top 150.
The lack of international talent in the system stands out.
25. Detroit Tigers
Detroit landed a first-round talent -- top-half in my opinion -- in the
sandwich round with Nick Castellanos, giving them two high-ceiling
impact guys at the top of the system, but much of their minor league
depth is in power relief arms.
26. New York Mets
Earth to Fred Wilpon: This is what a strict adherence to slot
recommendations will buy you. Parsimony has its price.
27. Houston Astros
The Astros are slowly getting better through the draft and some dabbling
in Latin America, but it sure would have been nice to see them get more
in return for Roy Oswalt.
28. Chicago White Sox
It was hard to get to 10 names for this system, but it will produce at
least two players who'll help the major league club try to win the AL
Central this year.
29. Florida Marlins
The Marlins graduated Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton, leaving two good-
not-great prospects in the system and not a whole lot else to excite
you. Their top prospect, Matt Dominguez, has a major question around his
bat, and their top draft pick from 2009, Chad James, had a so-so year
and missed time in 2010 with a sore shoulder.
30. Milwaukee Brewers
The first organization to fail to place a single prospect on my Top 100
list since I first produced these rankings in 2008 ... although landing
Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke is a pretty good excuse. Even before those
trades, however, their system as a whole wasn't strong, with a lot of
pitchers failing to progress once in the system. They might need one of
those arms -- Wily Peralta, perhaps, or Amaury Rivas -- to increase his
value this spring for a possible July trade.
--
※ 編輯: Westmoreland 來自: 118.160.65.224 (01/27 06:01)
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