[情報] Keith Law's 2011 Top Prospects: 1-25
1. Mike Trout
Age: 19 (DOB: Aug. 7, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield
Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '10 Level: A (Rancho Cucamonga)
2010 ranking: 49
If MLB ordered a do-over on the 2009 draft, Mike Trout, the 25th overall
pick by the Los Angeles Angels, would likely be the second overall
selection after Stephen Strasburg, even ahead of some of the other top-
shelf prospects who've come out of that draft. Trout was a young high
school senior, turning 18 two months after graduation, and was the
youngest position player to play all year in full-season leagues,
destroying the Midwest League and then performing way above expectations
in the Cal League. No qualifying player in low-A had an OBP within 20
points of Trout's .454 figure for Cedar Rapids, and only three beat his
.526 slugging percentage; his OBP in 50 games in high-A would rank 15th
among qualifiers at that level as well.
Trout's performance reflects his outstanding tools. He's an 80 runner, not
just fast underway but explosively quick out of the box. That speed,
combined with good instincts, gives him good range in centerfield. At the
plate, he's an intelligent, disciplined hitter, with very good hand-eye
coordination and a direct path to the ball. He has good leverage in his
swing with a well-timed weight transfer to his front foot, and strong
follow-through, so he should hit for above-average power as well as high
batting averages. And Trout consistently gets the highest marks from the
Angels for makeup, work ethic, and ability to take instruction.
It defies belief that the Angels fired Eddie Bane, the scouting director
who made the Trout selection, just 16 months after the pick; they'll enjoy
the fruits of his labor for many years to come, as Trout should see the
majors within the next two years, and has the potential to become one of
the best players in the game by his mid-20s.
2. Bryce Harper
Age: 18 (DOB: Oct. 16, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Outfield
Organization:Washington Nationals
Top '10 Level: Fall instructional (Scottsdale)
2010 ranking: IE
The No. 1 overall pick and consensus top player in the 2010 draft, Harper
has as much raw power as any teenage prospect in recent memory and put on
an absolute clinic while playing against older competition for the College
of Southern Nevada this past spring, rewriting the school and conference
record books along the way.
Harper's calling card is the absurd leverage in his swing, generating that
enormous raw power even out to centerfield. He's aggressive at the plate
and needs to work on his recognition of pro-quality offspeed stuff.
Playing twice a week in the Arizona Fall League, he showed he could turn
on any fastball but was often out in front of breaking balls and
changeups. He can go the other way if that's where he's pitched, and
despite the extraneous movement in his swing can make late adjustments
when he recognizes pitches.
Harper is still learning to play the outfield after catching for most of
his academic career, but he has the plus arm for right field and is
probably fast enough to handle center if the Nationals wanted to challenge
him. (If anything, it might be easier for him to go to center, where he'll
still view the field from the middle as he did from behind the plate, as
opposed to learning the angles involved in an outfield corner.) Playing a
full year in 2011 at age 18, Harper has MVP upside, but his race to the
majors will be timed by sliders and curveballs.
3. Domonic Brown
Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 3, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Outfield
Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '10 Level: Majors (Philadelphia)
2010 ranking: 14
Brown demolished Double-A and Triple-A in 2010, yet still has a lot of raw
aspects to his game. He may just be the rare, special talent who has to
complete most of his baseball development in the majors because minor
league pitching isn't a sufficient challenge for him.
Brown has all five natural tools, and shows some refinement at the plate,
where he works the count reasonably well and never had an issue with
making contact until he reached Philadelphia. His swing can be a little
long, but he accelerates his hands so quickly that, in the long run, I
don't expect him to be a significant swing-and-miss hitter and he has the
hip rotation and leverage to hit for above-average to plus power. His
reads in right field still need work and despite a strong arm he tends to
throw off the wrong foot, but those are problems that can be fixed with
time and better instruction in the majors.
He's not likely to fill Jayson Werth's offensive shoes right away, but if
the Phillies are patient Brown can be that kind of hitter when he peaks
after a few years in the big leagues.
4. Jesus Montero
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 28, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher
Organization: New York Yankees
Top '10 Level: AAA (Scranton Wilkes-Barre)
2010 ranking: 10
We can all agree on one thing about Montero: He's going to hit. And by
that, I mean he's going to hit for average, get on base and have huge
power -- the type of offensive profile that plays anywhere on the field
and in the lineup. Montero is a physical beast, the rare front-foot hitter
who can generate big-time power, reminiscent of Frank Thomas who was,
himself, also a patient and disciplined hitter.
Of course, the question on Montero since the Yankees signed him has been
his ultimate position. He has the arm strength to remain a catcher, but
takes way too long to get rid of the ball. He's not a bad athlete, but his
bulk has always made it hard for him to get his body moving quickly the
way a catcher has to move to block balls or jump out of the crouch to
throwing position. There's also a concern about the long-term effects that
catching will have on Montero's knees. He is listed at 6-foot-4, 225
pounds, and only five players in MLB history have caught 200 games at or
above those numbers, three of them (Joe Mauer, Chris Snyder, and Jarrod
Saltalamacchia) have had knee and/or back problems.
With a bat this potentially strong, why risk injury or give up the 20-25
games a year when your catcher has to rest? Montero could solve the
Yankees' DH problem for the next 10 years if they commit to it, a move
they are unlikely to ever regret.
5. Eric Hosmer
Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 24, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First Base
Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '10 Level: AA (Northwest Arkansas)
2010 ranking: 34
Hosmer's 2009 season was a lost year between vision problems and a broken
bone in his hand, but with both issues corrected, he took off in 2010,
launching himself to Double-A and reestablishing himself as an elite
prospect on both sides of the ball.
At the plate, Hosmer has great hip rotation and is strong enough to drive
balls out of the zone, especially when he can get his arms extended on
pitches down. He's always had strong pitch recognition, even in his off
year in 2009, and has shown both patience and high contact rates that
allow him to project to get on base while also hitting for power.
He's a good athlete with a 60 arm or better, and could handle right field
if moved there, but the Royals have him locked in at first for the long
haul. In a loaded system, he's the top dog right now.
6. Julio Teheran
Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 27, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '10 Level: AA (Mississippi)
2010 ranking: 63
Signed out of Colombia for $850,000 in 2007, Teheran is already making
that figure look like a bargain, establishing himself not just as a future
No. 1 starter but as the best pitching prospect in baseball.
Teheran has a loose arm and easy velocity, pitching at 92-95 mph but
touching higher than that with a plus changeup with good fade and tailing
action in the low 80s. His curveball remains his third pitch, with a
vertical break but soft rotation, and the pitch can get a little sloppy at
times. Teheran's arm action is a bit long but otherwise is easy and
repeatable; he takes a long stride to the plate and pronates his elbow
nice and early. The breaking ball still needs some work -- or he might
switch to a slider eventually -- but that fastball/changeup combo with
that arm and a body that's still projectable make him a potential ace.
7. Dustin Ackley
Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 26, 1988)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Second base
Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '10 Level: AAA (Tacoma)
2010 ranking: 8
Ackley's shift to second base was and in some ways still is a risky one,
but the early returns are promising on both glove and bat. In the field,
Ackley is surviving right now largely on quickness and athleticism,
showing excellent range at the position but struggling with too many
routine plays and transfers on twin killings, but overall is ahead of
where I expected him to be when I first heard they were committing to the
position switch.
At the plate, Ackley started horribly when the Mariners chose to be
aggressive and start him in Double-A, but he redeemed himself and the
organization by the All-Star break. After a doubleheader on May 3, Ackley
was hitting .139/.292/.215 for Double-A West Tenn. He went 3-for-5 the
next day, and .310/.425/.448 with 40 walks and just 25 strikeouts until
his mid-July promotion to Tacoma. He's always had a smooth, easy swing,
but is keeping his weight back better than he was in 2009 and should have
average to above-average power when he reaches his peak. He should be
ready for the majors by the middle of 2011.
8. Wil Myers
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 20, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Catcher
Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '10 Level: A (Wilmington)
2010 ranking: UR
The performance put in by Myers would have received more general notice if
there hadn't been a similar player a year younger than he is, Mike Trout,
doing essentially the same thing by destroying A-ball pitching.
Myers' .453 OBP in about a half a season in the Carolina League would have
led the entire high-A classification by more than 20 points if he'd
qualified, and he showed similarly strong on-base skills in low-A, a level
for which he was also a little young. Myers has superb hand-eye
coordination and a very pretty, classic swing from the right side. He can
start out in the bucket at times and needs to keep his front side firm,
but the swing itself is sound and both his hip rotation and weight
transfer are good.
He has been a catcher so far in the Royals' system, but the team tried him
out in right field during instructional league and were encouraged by how
he played. Because of the injury risk associated with catching and the
fact that catchers just don't get as many at bats each year as players at
other positions do, Myers' bat may actually make him too good to leave at
catcher. The Royals haven't made any firm decisions on his position, but
wherever he plays he's headed for stardom.
9. Shelby Miller
Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher
Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '10 Level: A (Quad Cities)
2010 ranking: 38
Miller dominated the Midwest League in his first full year in pro ball,
and the Cardinals have to be doing cartwheels to have landed him with the
19th overall pick in 2009.
He will pitch at 92-95 but can run the fastball up to 98 mph, and his
command of the pitch has improved by leaps and bounds over where it was in
high school. The biggest change for him in 2010 was his changeup, a pitch
he rarely used as an amateur because he rarely needed it, but regular use
and help from the Cardinals' coaches has made it a viable weapon, to the
point that he held left-handed hitters in 2010 to a .194/.259/.274 line.
He still has an out-pitch curveball in the 76-80 range with good depth,
but has been more of a flyball pitcher than expected despite getting good
downhill plane from his delivery. He's probably two to three years away
but projects as the frontline starter the Cardinals will need to replace
Chris Carpenter in the long run.
10. Aaron Hicks
Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 2, 1989)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: Outfield
Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '10 Level: A (Beloit)
2010 ranking: 19
Hicks took a step forward in 2010 by converting his tools into baseball
performance. He's a true five-tool player, with an 80 arm in the outfield,
above-average speed, future plus power and excellent bat speed. He's much
smoother hitting right-handed, with better balance and weight transfer,
and it showed this year in his platoon split, as he hit just
.248/.383/.339 against right-handers even though he was repeating the
level.
His plate discipline continues to improve, and there's plenty of leverage
in there for power when he fills out, but the inability to hit right-
handed pitching is a major concern that will have to be addressed, perhaps
by having him give up switch-hitting if it doesn't improve. On tools
alone, Hicks is a top-5 prospect in the game, and I still expect him to
become a star, but there's some risk here and I can understand why the
Twins are taking it a little slow with him.
11. Zach Britton
Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 22, 1987)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '10 Level: AAA (Norfolk)
2010 ranking: 25
Britton opened a lot of eyes at the Futures Game this year as a left-
hander with power stuff who didn't enter the game with much hype. Britton
is a true sinker/slider guy -- meaning his fastball actually sinks -- and
at 91-94 it's very hard for hitters to elevate successfully. His low-80s
slider is very sharp with great tilt and gives him a swing-and-miss
weapon, especially against left-handed hitters.
Between the ability to get groundballs and a solid-average changeup, he
showed virtually no platoon split at either level where he pitched in
2010. Britton accelerates his arm very quickly with a solid stride, good
leverage in back and moderate hip rotation, all of which also means he's
pitching with his lower half as well as with his upper. His command is
fair, and he doesn't have a pitch that moves away from right-handed
hitters, so he's had some trouble with walks in those situations for which
he compensates by getting groundballs.
There's at least strong No. 2 starter potential here, but better command
would give him more ceiling than that.
12. Manny Banuelos
Age: 19 (DOB: Mar. 13, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher
Organization: New York Yankees
Top '10 Level: AA (Trenton)
2010 ranking: 96
Banuelos was on the prospect radar last year as a competitive, strike-
throwing lefthander with a good changeup and a chance to add velocity. Now
he's a 19-year-old on the cusp of the majors with a three-pitch mix where
all three pitches will at least flash above-average.
Banuelos did pick up some velocity and will now work at 90-94 mph with his
fastball; he commands the pitch extremely well to both sides of the plate,
and its only flaw is a lack of sink. His changeup in the 78-84 range has
both excellent arm speed and tremendous fade, and he showed an improved
curveball with two-plane break in the upper 70s.
Banuelos' 2010 season started in June because he had his appendix removed
right before the season started, but he had little trouble with high-A
hitters and finished strongly in Double-A and in the Arizona Fall League.
He'll start 2011 in Double-A, but even though he's 19 he's close to maxed
out physically now, so he's just a few refinements away from being able to
help the big league club.
13. Kyle Drabek
Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 8, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '10 Level: Majors
2010 ranking: 40
Drabek made significant strides this year in the Toronto system, raising
his ceiling in the process by refining one pitch he had and adding two
more to his repertoire. Drabek has always had the plus fastball, 92-97,
and pairs it with an out-pitch curveball, hard in the mid-80s with good
depth, but his changeup had lagged behind. That last pitch is more solid-
average now, straight with better arm speed, and he can use that or a new
cut fastball to get left-handed hitters out, as well as a two-seamer to
keep hitters from timing his four-seamer.
Drabek, the son of 1990 NL Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, did miss a year
with Tommy John surgery, and he does not have a perfect delivery. He can
cut himself off and throw slightly across his body, and despite having a
strong lower half he doesn't use his legs enough to generate velocity. He
is, however, major league ready right now, with the weapons to miss bats
while he works on his command and the development of his lesser pitches.
14. Jeremy Hellickson
Age: 23 (DOB: Apr. 8, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '10 Level: Majors
2010 ranking: 17
Hellickson's presence made it easier for the Rays to flip Matt Garza for a
package of good prospects from the Cubs this offseason, as the Iowa-born
Music Man can step right into Garza's spot in the rotation. Hellickson's
repertoire includes a solid-average fastball at 90-94 along, a curveball,
a cutter and an out-pitch changeup, with above-average command across the
board. The change is his best offspeed pitch, but he has great feel for
the breaking ball as well, throwing it for strikes and moving it around as
needed. His fastball is pretty true, so he needs to mix his pitches well
to avoid becoming too homer-prone.
After missing some time in 2009 with minor shoulder soreness, Hellickson
was fully healthy in 2010, throwing a career-high 155 2/3 innings and
starting the Futures Game for the U.S. team; his arm works well and
there's nothing pointing to more arm trouble. His ceiling is probably
still more No. 2 than No. 1, but he's as major league ready as any pitcher
on this list, and he should be one of the top rookie pitchers in the game
in 2011.
15. Aroldis Chapman
Age: 23 (DOB: Feb. 28, 1988)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '10 Level: Majors
2010 ranking: 16
So, can he start? Chapman showed he can pitch out of the pen very
effectively -- as long as he's on at least a day of rest. In those
outings, Chapman could really air it out, hitting 104 on my gun once in a
late-September outing at San Diego and sitting around 98-101 with a slider
at 90 mph that is unhittable to any batter geared up for triple digits.
But on back-to-back days Chapman's velocity would drop a little and his
stuff was less crisp -- still better than most relievers can manage, but
perhaps a sign about the effort required to run the fastball past the
century mark.
He has three pitches, is a tremendous athlete and gets very high marks
from the Reds for his baseball aptitude. If he's willing to dial it down
and pitch around 94-95 he could still be a No. 1 starter, although having
a left-hander like this in the pen may be too much to resist.
16. Matt Moore
Age: 23 (DOB: July 18, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '10 Level: A (Charlotte)
2010 ranking: 81
For the second year in a row, Moore started slowly, only to see his stuff
and results improve as the year went on: After the All-Star break in 2010,
he had a 1.39 ERA with 130 strikeouts and 24 walks in 84 innings.
Moore is a big, strong kid with a loose arm that comes from just under a
3/4 slot, and he gets excellent extension out front so the ball jumps in
on hitters quickly. His fastball is above-average, sitting 93-94 and
touching 97, and his curve really came on this year to the point where
it's getting 60-70 grades from scouts. His circle-change is still an
above-average pitch and he had no platoon split to speak of this year.
The only major question for Moore is command; he's shown he can throw
strikes, so if he can locate the offspeed stuff better, he has top-of-the-
rotation potential.
17. Brandon Belt
Age: 22 (DOB: Apr. 20, 1988)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: First base
Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '10 Level: AAA (Fresno)
2010 ranking: UR
The Red Sox actually took Belt in the 11th round in 2006 as a pitcher, but
he went to junior college and eventually to Texas before signing with the
Giants as a fifth-round pick in 2009.
San Francisco, whose 2010 World Series win was fueled by a number of
successful high draft picks, selected Belt despite poor results because
they thought they could help him by altering his stance and swing. They
were right. By getting himself more upright at the plate, Belt became the
year's breakout prospect, with a good, balanced swing and excellent hip
rotation and weight transfer for future power. He has some extraneous
movement while setting up, but once he gets his hands going forward
everything is simple and direct.
He's an average runner and an above-average glove at first, but I wouldn't
be surprised to see him handle left field well now that he's semi-blocked
by Aubrey Huff. He's a potential impact callup for the Giants this year
and a middle-of-the-order bat in the near future.
18. Martin Perez
Age: 19 (DOB: Apr. 4, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '10 Level: AA (Frisco)
2010 ranking: 7
Perez's performance this year was one of the most disappointing for any
player in last year's top 20, even though nothing significant changed in
his delivery or stuff. I did have one report of Perez struggling to top 90
mph in a mid-summer start, but he was dealing with a minor back strain at
the time and he was 89-93 and flashing higher most of the season. His
changeup is slightly ahead of his breaking ball, but both project as
above-average-to-plus pitches.
The delivery remains clean and efficient, although he showed a little more
effort last year as the Rangers tried to fine-tune the arm action; he
fought the back issue as well as a cracked fingernail, both of which could
easily affect a pitcher's command. Had Perez rolled out a 3.00 ERA and
peripherals to match in Double-A this year, he'd still be in the top ten
overall, but the poor results mean he's not quite the sure thing he
appeared to be a year ago, and he's probably further from major league
production than we thought.
19. Casey Kelly
Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 4, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher
Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '10 Level: AA (Portland)
2010 ranking: 18
Kelly's season didn't match his hype, although he spent a good chunk of
the year pitching with a badly cracked fingernail on his right hand that
caused him trouble into the fall. Kelly's velocity was sound, 89-94, with
good arm speed on his changeup and a sharp curveball with excellent depth.
His command, when his finger is intact, is well above-average and has been
so since he was in high school. He was a solid defensive shortstop who had
a long way to go with the bat, and was also a star quarterback in high
school. He's taken that fielding ability and athleticism to the mound,
with an easy delivery he repeats extremely well.
The 2010 season was Kelly's first as a full-time pitcher, and he'll
probably return to Double-A to a great pitchers' park in San Antonio
before the Padres slide him up to the hitters' environment in Tucson. If
he never adds another mile an hour to his fastball, he'll still likely
pitch as a solid No. 2 behind Mat Latos for many years, with a chance to
be better than that if he picks up a little velocity.
20. Desmond Jennings
Age: 24 (DOB: Oct. 30, 1986)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Outfield
Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '10 Level: Majors
2010 ranking: 6
The heir apparent to Carl Crawford's roster spot, Jennings scuffled in
2010 with injuries that cost him playing time but also affected his swing
as he tried to compensate.
His ceiling remains the same -- a plus runner and centerfielder with
excellent plate discipline and the ability to turn on good fastballs --
but he now has to prove he can adjust his swing back to its 2009 state,
and, more importantly, that he can stay healthy for a full season,
something he's only done once in four full years in Tampa Bay's system.
He's had nagging shoulder and back problems, and in spring training last
year he jammed his wrist on a slide and missed the start of the year.
Jennings gets huge marks for his makeup, particularly his instincts all
over the field, something you can see in his 89 percent success rate on
stolen bases over the last two years. A healthy Jennings should be an on-
base machine at the top of Tampa's lineup.
21. Michael Pineda
Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 18, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '10 Level: AAA (Tacoma)
2010 ranking: UR
Pineda missed a huge chunk of 2009 with an elbow injury (not the kind that
requires Tommy John surgery), but had a full, healthy season in 2010 and
saw his velocity and offspeed stuff improve substantially. Pineda was
skinny to the point of scrawny before the 2009 injury, but has grown a
little and added 20-25 pounds while seeing his fastball jump to the mid-
to-upper 90s, touching 100 at times.
He can locate the fastball extremely well, and it sets up the mid-80s
split-change, with the slider becoming tighter as the 2010 season went on,
until the Mariners shut him down for precautionary reasons. On the right
night you could grade either offspeed pitch as above-average to plus, and
if one of those becomes more consistent -- and he stays healthy -- he
could be No. 1a to King Felix's No. 1 in Seattle's rotation.
22. Jacob Turner
Age: 19 (DOB: May 21, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '10 Level: A (Lakeland)
2010 ranking: 80
Turner has one of the fastest arms I've seen on a teenager and would light
up guns in high school, hitting 97-98 in a number of late-spring starts in
2009 that pushed him up into that draft's top 10. He didn't boast that
same velocity throughout 2010, pitching around an early season bout of
forearm tightness, but was 91-95 when healthy with an improved hard
curveball and surprisingly good control. His changeup lags behind the
other two pitches and he'll need to improve it or mix in more two-seam
fastballs to keep hitters off the four-seamer.
He finished very strongly in high-A Lakeland, going 35 2/3 innings in his
last seven starts while allowing just six runs, 20 hits and six walks
while punching out 33, his best stretch of pitching all year. The forearm
tightness seems to be behind him and the only potential red flag in his
delivery is that he generates a lot of his arm speed from his upper half
rather than his legs. If his arm is healthy for a full year in 2011, I
expect him to shoot up to Double-A or higher and into the top echelons on
this list.
23. Mike Moustakas
Age: 22 (DOB: Apr. 20, 1988)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: Third base
Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '10 Level: AAA (Omaha)
2010 ranking: 69
I said last January that 2010 would determine whether Moustakas projected
as an impact bat or just as solid-average, and I think he answered that
question pretty clearly, even with the knocks on his performance this
year. Moustakas destroyed Double-A, in part courtesy of a home park very
friendly to left-handed power hitters, and maintained his power with a
promotion to Triple-A but lost some selectivity and struggled against
left-handed pitching.
He has one of the best-looking swings on any prospect in the minors, and
has big line-drive power, including power out to left-center. At third
base, his best tool remains his plus-plus arm; he'll make the plays there
but won't show much range, and I doubt he'll be more than average even
with his work ethic. Even a grade-45 glove at third with his bat is a very
good player who'll make All-Star teams and hit in the middle of the
Royals' lineup for years.
24. Tyler Matzek
Age: 20 (DOB: October 19, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '10 Level: A (Asheville)
2010 ranking: 22
Matzek's full-season debut was well below expectations for someone who was
the top prep arm in the previous year's draft, but between his youth and
some extenuating circumstances, it's more speed bump than real obstacle.
The lefty went through some changes to his mechanics, including one
coach's attempt to get him to throw with a more windmill-style delivery,
and by mid-summer he'd lost his mechanics to the point that he couldn't
easily return to his old arm action. Between instructional league and
offseason work with his high school coach, however, Matzek is back to
where he was coming out of high school, and has also worked on
conditioning to get stronger and leaner so he can hold up for a full year.
Matzek will pitch with a full repertoire including four- and two-seam
fastballs, sitting in the 90-94 range, and his main objective in 2011 will
be to throw more quality strikes, as the return to the old delivery should
reduce or eliminate the control problems he had last year. I'm still very
bullish on Matzek's future, and he'll be very young for the Cal League if
he starts there this year.
25. Jarrod Parker
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 24, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: Pitcher
Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '10 Level: AA (Mobile)
2010 ranking: 37
*Missed 2010 season
Parker missed the entire 2010 season while rehabbing from Tommy John
surgery, but the operation was completely successful and he showed in
rehab and in instructional league that his arm is as good as ever. Parker
has always been 92-97 with a four-pitch mix, including a potential out-
pitch slider and a changeup that showed above-average before he got hurt.
While rehabbing, Parker worked hard on conditioning and on strengthening
his lower half, while the Diamondbacks' player development group worked on
having him stay over the rubber longer and repeating it more consistently.
Parker earns high marks for baseball intelligence, and worked hard enough
that he could have come back a month early had the minor league season not
ended in early September, so look for him to be back at full strength
(though on an innings limit) in 2011.
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