[閒聊] 2011 Baseball Draft: College Pitchers
Tyler Anderson, LHP, University of Oregon: 6-4, 215 pound lefty, 4-0, 1.02
ERA so far with a 59/15 K/BB in 44 innings, 26 hits allowed. Fastball ranges
between 88 and 92 MPH, averaging right at 91 by report, with sinking action.
Also mixes in a decent slider, but his best pitch is a terrific changeup.
Stats this year are obviously outstanding and he has a great feel for
pitching. Probably won't need much minor league time. A virtually
certain-first round pick in most drafts, but given the rich stock of college
pitching this year he might end up in the supplemental round, and could be a
bargain there. Or someone might pop him earlier than expected, like Mike
Minor in 2009.
Matt Barnes, RHP, University of Connecticut: 6-4, 205 pound right-hander,
ideal pitcher size. 4-2, 0.99 ERA with 42/11 K/BB in 45 innings, 24 hits
allowed. Another guy with excellent stats to go with a first round arm, and
is coming off a terrific summer season in 2010. Scouts rate his fastball as
second-best in the draft behind Gerrit Cole's, and he mixes in a good curve
and changeup. Would be a Top Five pick in some draft classes but could fall
to the middle of the round depending on other factors this year. VIDEO.
Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA: 6-2, 185 pound right-hander. So far, 4-1, 1.13 ERA,
72/18 K/BB in 48 innings, 21 hits. Some concerns have been raised about
excessive pitch counts but Bauer seems like the type who has a better chance
to stay healthy than most. Fastball ranges between 92 and 96, both curveball
and slider are strong, good changeup, outstanding makeup and physical
conditioning, a complete package basically. I doubt he lasts pasts the middle
of the round, and he is a personal favorite.
Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech: 6-4, 220 pound lefty. So far, 3-0, 1.67 ERA,
51/13 K/BB in 38 innings, 23 hits. Low-90s fastball with movement, plus pitch
for a lefty. Slider and changeup both rate as above average, giving him a
full arsenal. Athletic, throws strikes, makeup draws positive comments. Like
Tyler Anderson, he's got the combination of stuff and command to get to the
majors rather quickly. He could go anywhere after Pick Five in my opinion.
VIDEO:
Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA: 6-4, 220 pound right-hander. So far, 2-2, 2.31 ERA,
with a 47/8 K/BB in 39 innings, 23 hits. Showing excellent command of
excellent stuff this year. Up to 99 MPH with his fastball, plus curveball,
plus changeup, great delivery. Now being talked about as the possible number
one pick instead of Anthony Rendon and is drawing Strasburg comparisons. I
see no reason to buck the consensus on Cole; the hype looks legitimate to me.
Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt: 5-11, 180 pound (listed height varies between
5-11 and 6-0 depending on source) right-hander. Stats so far: 5-1, 1.51 ERA
with 58/17 K/BB in 42 innings, 22 hits. Statistical performance is obviously
excellent, and scouts love him even though he is "short" for a right-hander,
which tells you everything you need to know about his stuff (mid-90s
fastball, great slider) and mound presence. Should go in the Top Ten. If he
was taller he'd go in the Top Five, and he might anyway. VIDEO:
Danny Hultzen, LHP, University of Virginia: 6-3, 200 pound lefty. So far,
5-0, 1.12 ERA, 71/7 K/BB in 40 innings 23 hits. His stock has been rising all
spring and it was pretty high to begin with. Another lefty with a low-90s
sinking fastball, mixing in a strong changeup and slider and a great feel for
pitching. His statistical performance this year, particularly the K/IP ratio,
separates him from Bradley and Anderson. Does that mean he'll go higher in
the draft? Way too early to say that, but I can't see him not going in the
first round.
Taylor Jungmann, RHP, University of Texas: 6-6, 220 pounder, workhorse-type
right-hander. So far, 5-0 in six starts, 0.52 ERA, 42/5 K/BB in 52 innings,
27 hits. Low-to-mid-90s fastball. Both slider and changeup have been rated as
plus, and his command has taken a step forward this year. Mechanics have been
troublesome in the past but are reportedly more consistent this year, helping
his control. Has cut his BB/9 from 3.1 last year to 0.88 this year. Virtually
certain first rounder but could go anywhere past Pick Five. VIDEO (year old)
Anthony Meo, RHP, Coastal Carolina: 6-2, 190 pound right-hander. So far, is
2-2, 3.50 ERA with 36/15 K/BB in 36 innings, 33 hits allowed. Statistical
profile is not as strong as some of these other guys, but he's got
first-round stuff with a power sinking fastball at 94-96 MPH and a plus
slider. His changeup and command need work and relief conversion is on tap,
but in most drafts his arm would get him into the first round easily. He
might slip due to the depth of this draft but still shouldn't last past the
supplemental round.
Alex Meyer, RHP, University of Kentucky: Huge at 6-9, 220 pounds,
righthander. So far, 3-3, 3.05 ERA with 54/21 K/BB in 41 innings, 30 hits.
Composite ERA in Kentucky games is about 4.75 so he is pitching quite well
for context, although the walk rate is rather high. Mid-90s fastball and
above-average curve stand out, but command and mechanical issues keep him
from Gerrit Cole/Sonny Gray status. A certain first-round pick in most
drafts, might drop to supplemental in this one but upside is impressive. VIDEO
Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State: 6-3, 225 pound lefty. A Tommy John survivor
and on a short leash so far, has just 23 innings in six starts, but with a
2.74 ERA and a 28/10 K/BB. Appears healthy, up to 97 MPH at times,
outstanding for a lefty. Good changeup. Reports indicate he is just now
working his breaking ball back into the arsenal as the injury fades into the
background. A wild card on draft day: the injury and command issues will keep
him out of the first round, but he could go soon after if teams are convinced
he's fully recovered. Upside is quite high. VIDEO:
Mark Pope, RHP, Georgia Tech: 6-2, 205 pound right-hander. So far, 6-0 in six
starts, 0.59 ERA, 41/5 K/BB in 46 innings, 29 hits. Has pitched better than
more-heralded teammate Jed Bradley, although scouts prefer southpaw Bradley.
Pope works with a low 90s fastball and a decent slider, curve, and change.
His best attribute is excellent command. Not a first rounder under 2011
conditions, but would make a nice supplemental pick.
Matt Purke, LHP, Texas Christian: 6-4, 180 pound draft-eligible sophomore. So
far, 3-1 in five starts, 1.17 ERA with 29/7 K/BB in 23 innings, 16 hits.
Expected to be a Top Five pick pre-season but stock has dropped slightly due
to blister problems, limited innings, and reports of his stuff being
not-as-good-as last year. I want to see what happens in April and May with
this one. He could still go very high in the draft and on a per-inning basis
his numbers are fine, but there's some chance he could slip to lower in the
round. Note that he has extra leverage as a sophomore. VIDEO (from last
year):
Noe Ramirez, RHP, Cal State Fullerton: 6-3, 180 pound right-hander. So far,
4-2, 2.36 ERA with 49/9 K/BB in 42 innings, 28 hits. Lack of plus fastball
keeps him out of first round, but strong feel for pitching and changing
speeds and positive statistical performance could get him drafted soon after,
especially if a team with multiple picks wants to save a bit of money.
John Stilson, RHP, Texas A&M: 6-4, 190 pound right-hander. Just 1-1, but with
a 1.05 ERA and a 46/10 K/BB in 43 innings, 33 hits allowed. Threw 99 MPH when
used as a reliever in the past, but works at 89-94 as a starter, with plus
movement. Mixes in a nasty slider, good changeup and workable curve, all with
movement. Still working to keep his mechanics consistent. My take is that
he'll be a "backup" option for a lot of teams if their first choice comes off
the board early. I see him in the second half of the first round but he is a
guy who could slip to the early supplemental under certain conditions. He
could also go in the Top Ten if someone really loves him.
Logan Verrett, RHP, Baylor: 6-3, 180 pound right-hander. So far, 3-1, 3.44
ERA with a 43/10 K/BB in 37 innings, 35 hits. Composite ERA in Baylor games
is 4.85, so numbers are quite good for context. Fastball in 90-93 MPH range,
both slider and changeup are potential plus pitches and he's a good athlete.
Has received less attention than many other guys but would be a first round
candidate some years. Could go in the supplemental round.
Tyler Wilson, RHP, University of Virginia: 6-2, 190 pound righthander. So
far, 2.27 ERA with 45/9 K/BB in 36 innings, 28 hits. Wilson is a senior and
was drafted in the 35th round last year. Fastball in the 88-91 range keeps
him from being a first round candidate, but he throws strikes, changes
speeds, knows how to pitch, and could end up being a nice senior pick. Like
Noe Ramirez, someone looking to save some money might pick Wilson sooner than
anticipated. VIDEO:
OTHER REPORTS UPCOMING for Andrew Chafin, LHP, Kent State; Adam Conley, LHP,
Washington State; Brian Dupra, RHP, Notre Dame; Cole Green, RHP, Texas. .
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/3/30/2081225/2011-baseball-draft-college-pitchers-part-two
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/3/29/2079193/2011-baseball-draft-college-pitchers-a-through-j
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