[情報] Scouting the Draft
Introduction
This past weekend marked the annual occurrence of the largest, and most
widely attended, event on the amateur scouting circuit: the World Wood Bat
Association World Championship, hosted by Perfect Game USA. While Baseball
Prospectus evaluators have attended the event in other capacities through
their ties to the game, this was the first (but certainly not the last) year
the publication sent an official group of representatives. A four-man team
comprised of Dan Evans, Nick Faleris, Joe Hamrahi and Jason Parks took to the
fields at the Roger Dean Complex in Jupiter, Florida and returned with some
interesting on-field observations which the BP team would like to pass on to
you.
For those who are unfamiliar with the annual October tournament, the simplest
way to convey the experience is to say the event is unique in the purest
sense of the word: solitary in type and characteristics. Nowhere else will
you find over 80 of the best amateur travel teams playing simultaneously on
13 fields over five days. Nowhere else will you see baseball fields lined
with dozens of golf carts filled with pro and collegiate evaluators. Nowhere
else will you see a squad in highlighter yellow uniforms taking on another
team clothed in purple, black and grey camouflaged jerseys. It is an
experience unto itself, and one that evaluators throughout the game mark as a
“must attend.”
Perfect Game’s final tournament on the annual scouting calendar is routinely
attended by hundreds of scouts and college coaches, this year totaling around
400 pro evaluators and 200 collegiate reps (our estimates). That is a
testament to the quality of teams and players attending, as well as an
indication as to how important it is to be able to see the top-tier talents
facing one another in a true tournament setting over multiple days. While
there are inevitably some draft prospects not in attendance due to fall
football commitments, injury, or simply shutting down for the winter, there
is never a shortage of impact players on display and we will likely see at
least ten major league baseball cards out of this year’s crop alone.
While Super Storm Sandy did her best to play havoc with the scheduling, the
staff at Perfect Game and the Marlins/Cardinals grounds crew at the Roger
Dean Complex were true professionals, ensuring the successful completion of
many more games than could reasonably have been expected. The ultimate result
was another successful WWBA World Championship, lots of great baseball and
five more days of unique baseball memories. What follows is an accumulation
of scouting notes from the BP team in various forms; we hope you find them to
your liking and we hope to be able to provide more scouting analysis at the
amateur level as Baseball Prospectus continues to expand our reach.
One note: This piece focuses only on players at the tournament who are
eligible for the 2013 draft. We will have a follow-up piece (or pieces) on
underclassmen to keep an eye on, including two of the tournament’s most
impressive players: 2014’s Touki Toussaint (RHP, Coral Springs Christian
Academy (FL)) and 2015’s Dazmon Cameron (OF, Eagle’s Landing Christian
Academy (GA)).
Player Spotlight: Dominic Smith
Dominic Smith | 1B/OF/LHP | Serra HS (Los Angeles, CA)
6-foot-1/200 pounds | left/left profile | draft day age 17y 11m | Univ. of
Southern California commit
Smith entered the WWBA World Championship as a potential 1st rounder with
some heat off the strength of his summer showcase performances. A member of
last year’s Marlin’s Scout Team (which is where I had my first extended
looks at the talented Smith), he spent the 2012 Perfect Game tourney with Yak
Baseball West-GBG, where he logged time at first base, in the outfield and
even behind the plate (where he popped a 1.84 to second base per Joe Hamrahi
and a couple of Perfect Game scouts).
Smith began to gain traction on the mound late in the summer, where he now
sits 90-92 mph from the left side, boasting an intriguing upside and a
strong, athletic body providing an ample lump of clay with which a
developmental staff could work. Last weekend’s tournament, however, reminded
everyone just how impressive Smith’s offensive skillset is. Here’s what the
BP scouting contingent saw:
One of the elite position players in his class, he was the talk of the
tourney after catching on the backfields in a consolation game. By the way, he
’s a southpaw. Has Gold Glove potential at first base and well above average
arm. Left-handed bat is outstanding, uses other field as well as any hitter
in his class, and is starting to display power. Versatile; likes to play.
Enjoyed watching him try to keep his bat dry in one of the weekend’s
frequent visits by Hurricane Sandy, tucked it under his arm and jersey until
the last moment. USC Commit.–Dan Evans
Had the best pure swing in the tournament. It was fluid and smooth, and he
barreled just about everything he hit. Smith went the other way with
authority and is a scout’s dream of a hitter. The kid can do just about
everything, including catch; registered a pop time of 1.84.–Joe Hamrahi
Impressive physique, good tapered frame; big league body; clean swing with
line drive ability pole-to-pole; pull side power but still learning to
implement in-game; could develop legit playable power across field with time
and reps; picks at first as well as any amateur I’ve seen; footspeed not
ideal for outfield, even in a corner; will save runs at first base; plus
make-up; USC commit; profiles well as Day 1 bat; a kid you draft with no
concerns about his adjustment to pro ball on and off the field.–Nick Faleris
Team Spotlight: East Cobb Baseball
On Monday afternoon, East Cobb Baseball was crowned champion after coasting
to an 8-2 win over runner-up Chet Lemon’s Juice. Consistently one of the top
producers of elite prep talent, the Georgia-based program did not disappoint
this year with a handful of high follows for the 2013 draft in addition to
some underclassmen to keep an eye on. Here are scouting notes from Dan and
Jason on four 2013 draft eligibles who led the way for ECP:
Josh Hart | OF | Parkview HS (Lilburn, GA)
6-foot-3/190 pounds | left/left profile | draft day age 18y 7mo | Georgia
Tech commit
True center fielder with instincts, speed, and mature bat for age. Open
stance, ran 4.0-4.14 [home-to-first]. Above average range, average arm. Good
feel for strike zone. Hung in extremely well against multiple southpaws. High
draft who'll remain in middle of diamond.–Dan Evans
Wesley Jones | SS | Redan HS (Stone Mountain, GA)
6-foot-2/180 pounds | right/right profile | draft day age 17y 10mo | Univ. of
Georgia commit
Monster player; physical; athletic; played with strength and coordination on
both sides of the ball; actions at shortstop were clean and easy; gobbled up
the easy plays; made a few difficult ones; controls his body very well; lacks
plus range; 5 runner; bigger second gear, but slow accelerator and slow times
to 1B (4.7 range); arm is a 7; quick release and accurate; fearless player
over the base; instincts are obvious; profiles better at 3B because of
limited range; has quick stroke at the plate; works opposite field; controls
the barrel and can stay back on pitches; makes loud contact and can really
drive the ball; hit tool impressed me; power was hard to read, but bat speed
and strength were present; made big plays in big games; won tournament MVP;
shows more now skills than big projections; I saw a future big leaguer.–
Jason Parks
Brian Navarreto | C/OF | Arlington Country Day HS (Jacksonville, FL)
6-foot-3/200 pounds | right/right profile | draft day age 18y 5mo |
Uncommitted
Outstanding catching prospect with impressive energy and tools. First guy
out, first guy in dugout. Showed 60+ arm with accuracy and loved to use it.
Great frame (6'3" 200 lbs). Quick bat. Aggressive with intangibles.–Dan Evans
Travis Demeritte | 3B/RHP | Winder Barrow HS (Winder, GA)
6-foot-1/185 pounds | right/right profile | draft day age 18y 8mo | Univ. of
South Carolina commit
Wow player; very high baseball IQ; very easy to see on-the-field leadership
skills and work ethic; plays the game with purpose and passion; athletic,
with fluid movements; played a very good third base; clean actions; good
reactions and feel; covered a lot of ground; arm is a 7; makes every play he
can get to; remarkable field awareness; if he played shortstop I’d call him
a no doubt first round talent; bat flashed some potential; bat speed was
present; likes to pull the ball; shows power potential; love the hands; love
the approach; doesn’t get cheated; speed is only average, with home-to-first
times in the 4.3 range; good second-gear and base running ability; total
gamer; bat is probably only average, but has legit pop, good defensive
profile at 3B, and well above-average feel for the game; he’s a likely
candidate to over-perform projection; future major leaguer; will be around
game forever.–Jason Parks
Double Takes: 2013 Player Notes
Informal thoughts on twelve additional 2013 draft eligibles from last weekend:
Rowdy Tellez | 1B/OF| Elk Grove HS (Elk Grove, CA)
6-foot-5/250 pounds | left/left profile | draft day age 18y 3mo | Univ. of
Southern California commit
First Take: Anyone who knows me knows I love big-bodied first basemen who
can really mash. Team Elite’s Rowdy Tellez fits that profile. Tellez is
6-foot-5, 250 pounds and one imposing player. He’s very athletic and drives
the ball with authority. Tellez still has holes in his swing and can be
busted inside with heat, but if he makes contact, the ball travels.–Joe
Hamrahi
Second Take: Every time I see this player, I like him a little bit more.
Left handed hitter has outstanding raw power, the ball jumps off his bat, and
he hits it a long way the other way too. In best shape that I have seen him,
had quality at-bats throughout tourney.–Dan Evans
Carlos Salazar | RHP | Kerman HS (Kerman, CA)
6-foot-2/205 pounds | right/right profile | draft day age 18y 6mo |
California St. Univ.-Fresno commit
First Take: Thick build; fast arm from three-quarter slot; created good
angle; delivery had effort; showed big leverage with plant and jerk
mechanics; didn’t have Scherzer-like recoil or follow-through, but initial
set-up and execution were similar; fastball was crisp and worked 93-95
(touched 96 mph, but not in the zone), with a few 90 mph offerings mixed in;
command was spotty, missing high to both the arm side and glove side; was
falling under the ball; changeup was secondary pitch of choice, working in
wide range between 80-87 mph; pitched had decent fading action at 84 mph and
flashed potential; was able to hit 95 mph out of the stretch; huge arm
strength; delivery with runners on was sub-1.3; very intrigued based on arm
strength alone; flashed electric fastball, but delivery was problematic and
violent and command/control was poor.–Jason Parks
Second Take: Relatively unknown prior to the tourney, but this Central
California native brought big fastball (92-95 mph) to the hill from a
high-three-quarter slot. Velocity oriented, jumped at hitters and has funky
leg drag. Average life on well above average fastball, but needs to develop
secondary stuff, which currently consists of a changeup and slider that are
each tipped by slowing down. Pitched up in the zone a lot, but there is a lot
to work with here, and lack of power arms in 2013 class makes him really
interesting.–Dan Evans
Austin Meadows | OF| Grayson HS (Grayson, GA)
6-foot-3/205 pounds | left/left profile | draft day age 18y 1mo | Clemson
Univ. commit
First Take: Standout size; looks like a young Josh Hamilton in a uniform
(aesthetics only); high-end athlete; easy plus speed; good arm; shows easy
power with flick of the wrists; hit tool was underwhelming in small sample;
swing wasn’t short to the ball; took time to loop into zone; stayed too tall
and lost lower-half; didn’t crush average stuff; didn’t dominate on either
side of the ball; looks the part of five-tool first rounder, but didn’t
stand out in game action.–Jason Parks
Second Take: Games were heavily attended by scouting directors, a sign that
he enters the final eight months high on clubs’ draft boards. Impressive
frame. Don't see as center fielder. Good feel for strike zone. Left handed
hitter did not have big production when I was at diamond. Aggressive
approach, good athlete. Looking forward to seeing more of him.–Dan Evans
Terry McClure | OF | Riverwood Int’l Charter School (Sandy Springs, GA)
6-foot-2/190 pounds | right/right profile | draft day age 17y8mo | Georgia
Tech commit
First Take: McClure makes solid contact, hits for power, and can flat our
run. Reminds me a lot of a young Jose Reyes both in ability and stature. He’
s committed to Georgia Tech, but my guess is he’ll never become a Yellow
Jacket.–Joe Hamrahi
Second Take: Really raised stock over past four months; bat beginning to
manifest some pop in-game; plenty of speed to swipe the extra base and
displays solid selective aggressiveness in doing so; chance for plus
defensive profile; high follow for spring with chance for Day 1 attention;
big weekend in front of decision makers.–Nick Faleris
Nick Longhi | 1B/OF/LHP | Venice Senior HS (Venice, FL)
6-foot-2/210 pounds | right/left profile | draft day age 17y 10mo | Louisiana
St. Univ. commit
First Take: Flat-out rakes; can hit balls to all fields; hard contact; shows
both hit tool and power potential; lacks much athleticism or defensive value;
will be bat-only prospect; bat has plus potential because of strength/bat
speed and natural ability to put the barrel on the ball. Really nice hitter.–
Jason Parks
Second Take: Continues to show leverage in swing with a chance to develop
into true plus power threat; can struggle some with top tier velo, but more
swing-related than bat speed, so fixable; strong build; needs to hit but
solid chance he will.–Nick Faleris
Jeremy Martinez | C/3B | Mater Dei HS (Santa Ana, CA)
5-foot-10/190 pounds | right/right profile | draft day age 18y 5mo | Univ. of
Southern California commit
First Take: The real deal. Martinez has a rocket arm and great footwork
behind the dish, a good eye at the plate and gap power to all fields. Easily
a day one 2013 draft pick in my book.–Joe Hamrahi
Second Take: Big competitor; focused; really liked the arm behind the plate;
footwork was a little heavy, but achieved proper throwing position and was
able to show a sub-2 pop; easy plus arm; good receiver; intelligent player;
good stick; chases above the letters, but has bat speed and barreling
ability; uses hands well; has some gap pop; really good looking player; saw
more 3B action than behind the plate; lacks speed; below-average range; big
arm capable of big plays; actions didn’t stand out; focused when
on-the-field; games and competes; shows leadership skills.–Jason Parks
Jan Alexis Hernandez | SS | Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (Florida, P.R.)
6-foot-3/190 pounds | right/right profile | draft day age 17y 5mo |
Uncommitted
First Take: Long-limbed, athletic body reminds me of a young Alex Rodriguez
frame in short look. Soft feet with plus arm, appears to have skills to
remain at short. Highly touted infielder, looks the part, right handed bat.–
Dan Evans
Second Take: Good frame; clean actions in the infield; footwork plays around
the bag; left side arm; collegiate shortstop and has chance to stick at pro
ranks if he doesn’t get too big; power potential; natural lift; delivers
barrel well; average runner likely slows as body matures; game projects
across the board.–Nick Faleris
Tyler Danish | RHP/3B | Durant HS (Plant City, FL)
6-foot-0/170 pounds | right/right profile | draft day age 18y 9mo | Univ. of
Florida commit
First Take: Velo up from East Coast Pro (89-91 mph now 90-93 mph); very heavy
fastball missing bats now and should produce lots of soft contact in the
future; upper-70s slider could be plus down the line and he shows high level
of comfort with the pitch; questionable starter profile due to size and some
effort, but chance for quality two-pitch attack; sits as early-ish Day 2 arm
now.–Nick Faleris
Second Take: Probably the most consistent hurler throughout the tournament
with a fastball that hovered in the 92-94 range. While only 6-foot, 170
pounds, Danish used a quick hand exchange and a very deceptive motion to fool
hitters. He reminded me a lot of Roger McDowell.–Joe Hamrahi
John Paul (J.P.) Crawford | SS | Lakewood HS (Lakewood, CA)
6-foot-2/180 pounds | left/right profile | draft day age 18y 5mo | Univ. of
Southern California commit
First Take: Excellent candidate to improve defensive profile with reps and
pro instruction; easy left-side arm with accuracy; average runner out of the
box, routinely clocking 4.2 to first; improved at bats from beginning of
summer; good hands and improving ability to barrel; potential early-round
pick that could be top ten overall type talent with three years of college
ball under his belt (unlikely to end-up on campus given up-the-middle
profile).–Nick Faleris
Second Take: Made the best defensive play of the weekend, turning a low
rocket deep in the hole into a 6-4-3 double play with a great stop, quick
pop-up, and outstanding feed. Would have been a Web Gem in a big league game.
Bat is maturing. Has frame and skills to remain at short. Keeps improving,
left-handed hitter.–Dan Evans
Austin Nicely | LHP/1B/OF | Spotswood HS (Penn Laird, VA)
6-foot-2/175 pounds | both/left profile | draft day age 18y 6mo | Univ. of
Virginia commit
First Take: Tossed a couple of relief innings, and was impressive, showing a
polished arm with upside. Lefty was 88-90 mph with above average arm-side
life, downer 80 mph breaking ball, and plus 77/78 changeup with sink. Liked
this guy a lot, feel will gain strength on frame.–Dan Evans
Second Take: Projectable frame and projectable stuff; type of arm Coach O’
Connor and staff turn into a force; lively fastball currently 88-90 mph
bumping 91 once up but in the zone; shows some feel for changeup and tight
curveball; could wield three average or better Major League offerings in time.
–Nick Faleris
Matthew McPhearson | OF | Riverdale Baptist School (Upper Marlboro, MD)
5-foot-10/170 pounds | left/left profile | draft day age 18y 2mo | Univ. of
Miami commit
First Take: Explosive, athletic player with tools. Showed solid pitch
recognition throughout tourney, collected big hits all weekend. Ran
everything out hard. Took ball up the middle. Outstanding range to either
side, looks like pure center patcher.–Dan Evans
Second Take: Made one of the best defensive plays of the tournament ranging
to right-center gap with impressive closing speed and body control through
sliding catch; above-average to plus runner in field but slower out of box
with 4.15-4.22 times to first from left side; improving at bats; works best
gap to gap as slasher; hit tool projection unclear, but starter kit for solid
lead-off hitter with plus defense in center.–Nick Faleris
Jonah Wesely | LHP | Tracy HS (Tracy, CA)
6-foot-2/215 pounds | left/left profile | draft day age 17y 8mo | Univ. of
California-Los Angeles commit
First Take: Had excellent outing on Saturday and identified himself as one of
the best southpaws in next June’s class. Four pitch guy who goes in on both
LHH and RHH, pitches in all four quadrants, and has two solid average to
above-breaking balls, each with depth. Great kid. Strike thrower, rebounded
from end-of-summer struggles well, body in really good shape. Fastball 88-92
mph with bore. Swing and miss curve. Muscular lower half, uses third base
side of rubber from high-three-quarters slot.–Dan Evans
Second Take: Missed start but received glowing reports from multiple
evaluators; four pitches that all project; chance for three to four
above-average offerings; may have best blend of “now” stuff and projection
of all 2013 high school lefties; commanding presence on mound; belongs there
and knows it; spring will determine ultimate stock, but capped 2012 showcase
circuit on high note.–Nick Faleris
BP’s Best
To wrap up our thoughts on the 2013’s, each of the BP team members picked a
top pitcher and top position player from the 2013 class, with results as
follows:
Best Pitcher:
Jonah Wesely | LHP | Tracy HS (CA) | UCLA commit (2 votes)
Jake Brentz | OF/LHP | Parkway South HS (MO) | Jefferson College commit
Devin Williams | RHP | Hazelwood West HS (MO) | Univ. of Missouri commit
Best Position Player:
Dominic Smith | 1B/OF/LHP | Serra HS (CA) | Univ. of Southern Calif. commit
Justin Williams | OF | Terrebonne HS (LA) | LSU commit
Travis Demeritte | 3B/RHP | Winder Barrow HS (GA) | Univ. of South Carolina
commit
Wesley Jones | SS | Redan HS (GA) | Univ. of Georgia commit
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