[情報] Prospect Retro: 宋勝準 ( Seung Song )
Prospect Retro: Seung Song, Former Top Prospect to Korean WBC Roster
http://t.co/cg1pc8ZyIv
Currently pitching for South Korea in the 2013 World Baseball Classic, Seung
Song was, at one time, one of the best prospects in North American baseball.
Yet he never pitched in the majors. What happened? The winner of last week's
Off Topic Airplane Blogging contest wanted to know, so let's take a look.
Song was signed by the Boston Red Sox as a free agent in 1999, earning an
$800,000 bonus. He was a first-overall pick in the Korean Baseball
Organization draft, but he wanted to play in North America. His pro debut was
very solid: 2.30 ERA with a 61/20 K/BB in 55 innings for the Gulf Coast
League Red Sox. Scouting reports pointed to a good low-90s fastball and
promising secondary pitches, but he needed polish and experience. I gave him
a Grade C+ in my 2000 book, noting a high ceiling but that he had a long way
to go.
Moved up to Lowell in the New York-Penn League for '00, he was extremely
effective with a 2.60 ERA and a 93/20 K/BB in 73 innings with 63 hits
allowed. His control was sharper and he was making progress with a changeup
and curve to go with his low-90s sinker. I moved him up to a Grade B entering
2001, writing that "my feeling is that he will do well if he stays healthy."
He continued to do well: 2.04 ERA with a 79/18 K/BB in 75 innings for Low-A
Augusta, then a 1.68 ERA with a 56/18 K/BB in 48 innings for High-A Sarasota
in 2001. He now had a refined, plus-quality curveball and an impressive
changeup to go with the fastball, with continued praise from scouts for his
makeup and mound presence. He gave up just four homers all season. He was up
to a Grade B+ for me now, projecting him as a number two starter. I had him
as the Number 18 pitching prospect in baseball.
The Red Sox sent him to Double-A for 2002. His ERA skipped up to 4.39 but his
other numbers remained solid, with a 116/37 K/BB in 109 innings and 106 hits
allowed. Scouting reports continued to show three strong major league pitches
and a good feel for pitching. He was the key prospect in a mid-season trade
with the Expos, as part of the Cliff Floyd deal.
Song made one start for Double-A Harrisburg, then went on the shelf with a
sore shoulder and missed the rest of the season. The injury was not supposed
to be a big deal, and I kept him with a Grade B+ entering 2003, ranked 33rd
on the pitching prospect list and writing that we would see him in the majors
soon if his shoulder was OK.
2003 got off to a good start with Song throwing a no-hitter for Harrisburg in
April. He ended up with a 2.35 ERA and a 44/24 K/BB in 73 innings, then a
3.79 ERA with a 40/33 K/BB in 74 innings after being promoted to Triple-A
Edmonton. Although he threw 147 innings on the season, there were big red
flags.
His velocity was down, his fastball going from 90-95 MPH down to 87-91. His
breaking stuff wasn't as sharp, and the loss of fastball velocity made his
changeup less effective. Although he didn't go on the DL and the Expos kept
running him out there, there were rumors that he was attempting to pitch
through more shoulder problems. Statistically, his K/IP ratio was much lower
than in past seasons. The Expos didn't promote him to the majors for
September.
Concerned about the stats, velocity drop, and the injury rumors, I lowered
his rating to a Grade B- entering 2004, writing that "I'm worried that the
dropping K/IP is a precursor to a serious problem."
It was. Shoulder problems and continued velocity decline limited Song to 85
innings in '04, split between three levels due to rehab, with a combined 4.78
ERA. His reputation as a prospect collapsed very quickly, evaporating with
his fastball and the Expos cut ties quickly. He was picked up by the Blue
Jays on waivers, then the Giants.
He threw 128 innings at three levels for the Giants system in '05 and posted
a combined 3.16 ERA, but his K/BB in Triple-A was poor at 37/36 and by the
end of the season he was considered "no prospect" by most observers.
From top prospect to nothing in two years: it happened that fast.
He was let go as a minor league free agent, signed with the Royals, and had a
bad year in Double-A with a 5.37 ERA. 99/70 K/BB in 131 innings. I saw him
pitch that summer and he was a ghost of his former self, struggling with
command, working at 87-90, and lacking life with his secondary pitches.
What happened? Simple case really: the bout of arm trouble in '03 and '04
cost him his best stuff and he was never able to fully compensate.
Song went back to Korea to pitch for the Lotte Giants, and that was that for
his career in North America. He did make a name for himself in Korea,
pitching in the 2008 Olympics and being named to the KBO All-Star Game in
2012, plus the World Baseball Classic this year.
Song's case is one of the reasons that I tend to be very cautious about any
hint of injury in a pitcher, even if it is supposed to be "no big deal,"
especially if it concerns the shoulder.
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