[情報] Prospect Retrospective: John Lackey
Prospect Retrospective: John Lackey
http://t.co/jlsMTwIQqa
A reader asked me a few weeks ago for a Prospect Retrospective on Boston Red
Sox right-hander John Lackey, writing that Lackey "was never a top prospect"
and wondering how he developed.
To say that Lackey wasn't a top prospect isn't quite right; he was a very
good prospect, so let's take a look at his career.
After a freshman season at the University of Texas, John Lackey attended
school at Grayson County Junior College for his sophomore year, where he had
success as a slugging first baseman, hitting .440 with 16 homers in 1999.
However, he was a also a top prospect on the mound due to his arm strength,
and it was as a pitcher that the Angels selected him in the second round,
68th overall. This was the first pick they had in the draft that year, due to
signing Mo Vaughn as a free agent.
Lackey had a low-to-mid-90s fastball, but his breaking stuff was unrefined,
his control was inconsistent, and he was quite raw. The good side of that is
that his arm was low-mileage; the bad side was that he looked like a
long-term project.
Lackey was assigned to Boise in the Northwest League for his pro debut and
struggled with his command, posting a 4.98 ERA with a 77/50 K/BB in 81
innings with 81 hits allowed. He had a shot at developing into a workhorse
starter, but there was also a lot of talk that he could convert to relief if
his command didn't improve. I gave Lackey a high-ceiling Grade C in my 2000
book, and wrote that I thought the Angels had taken a severe risk by drafting
him, due to the thin nature of their farm system at the time and the lack of
a first-round choice.
I was wrong.
Lackey took a huge step forward in his first full season. He started off with
five strong starts for Low-A Cedar Rapids (21/5 K/BB in 30 innings, 2.08
ERA), then performed well in the California League (3.40 ERA in 101 innings,
74/42 K/BB, 94 hits) and showed well in Double-A (3.30 ERA, 43/9 K/BB in 57
innings for Erie).
He threw a ton of innings (188) especially considering his lack of
experience, but he seemed to hold up just fine and he was sharp at the end as
he was at the beginning. His velocity was down a hair from college and he was
in the 90-92 range now, but his heater had movement, and his curveball and
changeup were very good, giving him three pitches. I gave him a Grade B
entering 2001, seeing him as a workhorse starter.
Lackey was effective again in Double-A in 2001 (3.46 ERA, 94/29 K/BB in 127
innings, 106 hits) but was hammered in 10 starts for Triple-A Salt Lake (6.71
ERA, 41/16 K/BB in 58 innings, but 75 hits). On the positive side, he got
good reviews for adding a slider to his arsenal, giving him a complete
four-pitch repertoire. There was concern about his ability to locate his
pitches well, and some grumblings that his heavy workloads had already sapped
some velocity. But overall he still looked like a solid prospect and I gave
him another Grade B entering 2002, writing that "I don't think Lackey will be
an ace, but he should be a good, solid pitcher, providing he doesn't blow his
arm out."
Beginning 2002 in Triple-A, Lackey was excellent for Salt Lake, posting 2.57
ERA with an 82/28 K/BB in 102 innings over 16 starts. He made his major
league debut in late June, and after a little roster yo-yoing he took over a
rotation spot for the second half, going 9-4, 3.66 in 18 starts with a 69/33
K/BB in 108 innings with a 121 ERA+.
He was one of the best young pitchers in the American League right away and a
key component of the Angels' post-season drive, capped off with the biggest
game of his life: Game Seven of the World Series against the Giants. He
allowed one run over five innings, being only the second rookie in history to
win Game Seven, joining Babe Adams of the 1909 Pittsburgh Pirates in the
record book.
He logged two seasons as an inning-eater in '03 and '04, logging slightly
worse-than-league ERAs but averaging 200 innings and keeping his WAR
positive. He took a step forward in '05 with a 14-5, 3.44 season (123 ERA+,
5.9 WAR), posted a similar campaign in '06 (6.0 WAR), then dominated the
league in '07, going 19-9 and leading the American League with a 3.01 ERA and
150 ERA+, though interestingly enough his WAR actually went down a smidge to
5.6.
He remained an above-average pitcher in '08 and '09 though he finally had
problems and lost the 200-inning knack. The Red Sox then signed him to an
ill-advised five-year contract. As you know, he pitched decently enough in
'10 (4.1 WAR), but was horrible in '11 and missed all of '12 recovering from
Tommy John surgery.
Lackey has gone 128-94 (.577) with a 4.10 ERA in his career, 107 ERA+, with a
1465/569 K/BB in 1876 innings, 37.0 career WAR.
Overall, Lackey has lived up to the expectations he generated in the minors,
logging 200+ innings five times with another 198-inning season on the books.
He had a great run 2005-thru-2007 (5.9, 6.0, 5.6 WAR) and provided moments of
well-timed dominance.
What happens now? Through age 32, Lackey's Sim Score comps are Kevin
Millwood, Josh Beckett, Pat Hentgen, Freddy Garcia, Charles Nagy, Matt
Morris, Jack McDowell, Jason Schmidt, Brad Penny, and Bruce Hurst.
Millwood, Hentgen, and Garcia had periods of above-average pitching past age
32 but never regained their former glory, durability, or consistency. Nagy,
Morris, McDowell, Hurst, and Schmidt were all finished by 34 and Penny looks
that way.
Does Lackey have anything left in the tank? He's topped out at 92 this spring
but has been working more in the upper-80s. The historical precedents aren't
exactly thrilling, but if he does have something left it will likely be as a
Millwood-like veteran. I think it is unwise to expect Lackey to return to a
200-inning, 32-start workload without falling apart, but a guy like this
could probably still be valuable as a spot starter, logging 100-120 useful
innings. Unfortunately, such a usage pattern is difficult to set up nowadays
with modern rotations.
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