[情報] Jim Callis Mock Draft 1.0
Jim Callis Mock Draft 1.0
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/jim-callis-mock-draft-1-0/
For the second straight draft, Stanford righthander Mark Appel entered the
spring as the consensus best player available. Another college righthander,
Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray, quickly joined him after a string of dominant
starts.
With a month remaining before the 2013 draft, Appel and Gray remain alone on
the first tier of prospects. “There’s a severe difference between those two
and everyone else,” an American League scouting director said.
Scouts rate the overall crop of talent as mediocre, just as they did coming
into the season. Several of the best college arms, most notably Indiana State
lefthander Sean Manaea, have taken a step backward. That’s bad news for
clubs at the top of the draft who covet advanced pitching.
High school hurlers such as righthanders Kohl Stewart (Texas) and Phil
Bickford (California) and lefty Trey Ball (Indiana) are flying up draft
boards. Yet it remains to be seen how early teams will be willing to take
players from what’s considered the draft’s riskiest demographic.
San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant, college baseball’s runaway home run
leader, is the top bat available. Outfielders Clint Frazier and Austin
Meadows, who play for different high schools in Loganville, Ga., have lived
up to their billing as the best high school position players, but there’s a
growing sense that one or both of them could slide out of the first 10
selections.
Last year, a new Collective Bargaining Agreement brought major changes with
assigned bonus pools for the first 10 rounds and severe draft-pick penalties
for exceeding them by more than 5 percent. As was the case in 2012, many
clubs will seek discounts in the first round, saving money versus the CBA
pick values and allocating that cash for later selections. Between teams
looking to cut deals and little agreement as to how the talent lines up after
the first 10-15 players, the bottom half of the first round is more unsettled
than usual.
**
Here’s our best guess as to how things will play out on June 6:
1. ASTROS: Houston, which has the top selection for the second straight year,
says it’s still evaluating seven players. Most industry sources believe
Houston’s decision will come down to Appel, whom it strongly considered a
year ago before taking Carlos Correa, and Gray. While Appel has less leverage
this time around because he’s now a college senior, Houston won’t be able
to take as much of a discount as it did with Correa, who signed for $4.8
million. The Astros’ pick is valued at $7.8 million, and whichever arm they
pass on likely will be snapped up by the Cubs ($6.7 million) or the Rockies
($5.6 million).
PROJECTED PICK: MARK APPEL.
2. CUBS: Chicago has had scouts at every one of Appel’s and Gray’s starts
this spring. While the Cubs insist they haven’t narrowed their focus to just
the two pitchers, it will be an upset if they don’t choose whichever one the
Astros leave on the board.
PROJECTED PICK: JONATHAN GRAY.
3. ROCKIES: Colorado may prefer a pitcher, but if Appel and Gray aren’t
available, there’s not an obvious arm to take here. The Rockies could cut a
deal with someone like Nevada righthander Braden Shipley or hope that Manaea
regains his form from last summer in the Cape Cod League. Would they opt for
a high school pitcher after getting burned by their $3.9 million investment
in Tyler Matzek in 2009? More likely, they’ll grab the best offensive
prospect in the draft.
PROJECTED PICK: KRIS BRYANT.
4. TWINS: A year ago, Minnesota badly needed pitching but used the No. 2
overall choice on outfielder Byron Buxton, the 2012 draft’s top-rated
prospect. While the Twins aren’t as desperate now, they’re still looking at
arms. Stewart comes with more risk but similar ceiling to Appel and Gray.
Manaea and Ball are other options. Rumors persist that Minnesota could cut a
deal with Washington high school catcher Reese McGuire and spend heavily
further down in the draft.
PROJECTED PICK: KOHL STEWART.
5. INDIANS: Cleveland is another team searching for pitching. The Indians
traditionally have been more comfortable with college arms, so they’re one
of several teams trying to figure out Manaea. Shipley could allow them to
move money lower in the draft, helpful for a club that lost picks by signing
free agents Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. If Bryant fell, Cleveland would
grab him and focus on pitching later.
PROJECTED PICK: BRADEN SHIPLEY.
6. MARLINS: Other teams believe Florida will make a discount choice, with
candidates ranging from Shipley and McGuire to New Mexico corner infielder
D.J. Peterson and New Jersey high school lefthander Rob Kaminsky. If money is
less important, Frazier could be a target.
PROJECTED PICK: REESE McGUIRE.
7. RED SOX: Boston has selected this high just once since 1967, getting Trot
Nixon with the No. 7 choice in 1993. The Red Sox are looking to maximize
their opportunity and will take a high-ceiling talent such as Frazier, Manaea
or Stewart. They’re also interested in sweet-swinging North Carolina third
baseman Colin Moran.
PROJECTED PICK: CLINT FRAZIER.
8. ROYALS: Add Kansas City to the list of teams on the hunt for pitching. If
Stewart and Shipley are gone, that would leave the Royals considering Ball,
Manaea and Arkansas righthander Ryne Stanek—who pitched his high school ball
in suburban Kansas City. The Royals are known for preferring curveballs to
sliders, which could help Ball’s cause.
PROJECTED PICK: RYNE STANEK.
9. PIRATES: Pittsburgh added this pick after failing to sign Appel at No. 8
last year, and it would get the No. 10 selection in 2014 if it can’t close a
deal again. The Pirates were on Moran more than most teams in high school,
and he’d eventually allow Pedro Alvarez to shift across the diamond to first
base. Ball and McGuire also get mentioned here.
PROJECTED PICK: COLIN MORAN.
10. BLUE JAYS: No team was more aggressive than Toronto in the 2012 draft,
but it has no extra picks to play with this year. Expect the Blue Jays to go
all-in here and grab the highest-ceiling player still available. If Stewart
and Frazier are off the board, that means Ball or Meadows.
PROJECTED PICK: TREY BALL.
11. METS: New York appears to be targeting college bats. If Moran doesn’t
get to the Mets, they’ll pick between Peterson and Missisippi State
outfielder Hunter Renfroe.
PROJECTED PICK: D.J. PETERSON.
12. MARINERS: Meadows opened the year as the top-rated high school prospect,
and while he hasn’t had the senior season scouts hoped for, he’s still a
potential five-tool talent. Getting him here would be a nice value for
Seattle. This is likely the floor for Shipley and McGuire, and the ceiling
for Bickford.
PROJECTED PICK: AUSTIN MEADOWS.
13. PADRES: Meadows also would be a nice get for San Diego, which may be the
lone club this high that prefers Ball as an outfielder. If the Padres don’t
see a high-upside position player, they may turn to Bickford or lefthander
Ian Clarkin, a San Diego high schooler.
PROJECTED PICK: PHIL BICKFORD.
14. PIRATES: A year ago, Pittsburgh ditched a predraft deal with David Dahl
and gambled the No. 8 choice on Appel when he unexpectedly fell. Could they
do the same with another Boras Corp. college pitcher in Manaea, a potential
No. 1 overall pick before his stuff backed up? No team has two picks as high
as the Pirates do, and not signing Manaea wouldn’t sting as much as missing
out on Appel did in 2012. Pittsburgh also could grab Ball at No. 9 and get a
college bat such as Renfroe or Notre Dame third baseman Eric Jagielo here.
California high school first baseman Dominic Smith is a gifted hitter, too.
PROJECTED PICK: SEAN MANAEA.
15. DIAMONDBACKS: After an early run on pitchers, position players will be
the strength of the middle of the first round. Count Arizona as one of
several teams in this area who would love an unexpected shot at Meadows.
Renfroe and California high school shortstop J.P. Crawford are better bets to
be available.
PROJECTED PICK: HUNTER RENFROE.
16. PHILLIES: Philadelphia, which has its earliest pick since taking Gavin
Floyd at No. 4 in 2001, loves toolsy athletes. Crawford is the best shortstop
in the draft, a quality defender with hitting ability who’d make a fine
replacement for Jimmy Rollins down the road.
PROJECTED PICK: J.P. CRAWFORD.
17. WHITE SOX: Chicago used its top choice on athletic outfielders in 2009
(Jared Mitchell), 2011 (Keenyn Walker) and 2012 (Courtney Hawkins), and could
go that route again with Stanford’s Austin Wilson or Fresno State’s Aaron
Judge, who have massive power potential and two of the best bodies in the
draft. Sox executive Ken Williams is a former Cardinal outfielder himself.
PROJECTED PICK: AUSTIN WILSON.
18. DODGERS: Since Logan White took over Los Angeles’ amateur scouting
operations in 2002, he has used seven first-round picks on high school
pitchers, most notably Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers
could take another this year, with Bickford, Clarkin, New Jersey lefthander
Rob Kaminsky and North Carolina righthy Hunter Harvey as possibilities.
PROJECTED PICK: IAN CLARKIN.
19. CARDINALS: St. Louis picked in the same spot a year ago and got a
tremendous value with a college righthander in Michael Wacha. It could happen
again, as Jacksonville’s Chris Anderson and Florida’s Jonathon Crawford
have faltered after looking like top-10 talents earlier in the spring. It’s
not inconceivable that Manaea could fall this far if he doesn’t right
himself and/or doesn’t appear signable, and the Cardinals have more
flexibility than most clubs thanks to a pair of first-rounders.
PROJECTED PICK: CHRIS ANDERSON.
20. TIGERS: Detroit hasn’t had a first-round pick since 2009. At their best,
Crawford and Anderson have the type of well above-average fastballs for which
the Tigers are always on the prowl. If they want a hitter, they could look at
Jagielo or Texas prep outfielder Billy McKinney. The latter is similar to
Detroit’s top prospect, Nick Castellanos.
PROJECTED PICK: JONATHON CRAWFORD.
21. RAYS: Tampa Bay could go in several directions here, with the best
options appearing to be position players. The Rays could opt for the highest
ceiling available and grab Wilson or Judge. They could choose a more polished
hitter in Smith or Samford outfielder Phillip Ervin. They could address their
need at catcher with a prepster like South Carolina’s Nick Ciuffo or Oklahoma
’s Jon Denney. They also could target a scarce position with East Central
(Miss.) JC shortstop Tim Anderson, the draft’s best juco prospect.
PROJECTED PICK: AARON JUDGE.
22. ORIOLES: Though Baltimore is set at catcher with Matt Wieters, it still
makes sense to draft the best available talent in the first round. The
Orioles have been linked to Ciuffo, who like Wieters played at a South
Carolina high school.
PROJECTED PICK: NICK CIUFFO.
23. RANGERS: Texas has built a strong major league team and a deep farm
system by shooting for ceiling. Smith is one of the best all-around hitters
in the draft, comes with less risk than most high school bats and provides
quality defense at first base as a bonus.
PROJECTED PICK: DOMINIC SMITH.
24. ATHLETICS: Athletic college players who can hit are a rare commodity, so
getting Cape Cod League MVP Ervin here would be a coup. Oakland also may find
it hard to resist high school lefthander Matt Krook, who flashes front-of-the
rotation stuff, from nearby San Francisco.
PROJECTED PICK: PHILLIP ERVIN.
25. GIANTS: Krook pitches even closer to the Giants, who know a thing or two
about developing pitching. Chris Anderson also might fit here.
PROJECTED PICK: MATT KROOK.
26. YANKEES: After losing Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano to free agency, New
York has three first-rounders, more than any team. The Yankees system is
short on arms, and polished prep lefthander Rob Kaminsky pitches across the
Hudson River in New Jersey. It may make more sense to wait on Kaminsky and go
for Jagielo, who could shore up the aging left side of New York’s infield.
PROJECTED PICK: ERIC JAGIELO.
27. REDS: Tennessee high school righthander Kyle Serrano will be difficult to
sign away from a commitment to play for his father Dave at the University of
Tennessee, but Cincinnati is one of the clubs most determined to try. If the
Reds strike out there, they could pursue Tim Anderson.
PROJECTED PICK: KYLE SERRANO.
28. CARDINALS: The final six choices in the first round are compensation for
departed free agents, beginning with this one for Kyle Lohse. High school
righthander Devin Williams is making a push to go from the St. Louis suburbs
to the first round, but that seems a bit rich, even for a local team with
multiple choices. McKinney’s advanced bat makes more sense here.
PROJECTED PICK: BILLY McKINNEY.
29. RAYS: Tampa Bay could pair a position player at No. 21 with a pitcher
here. The Rays excel at developing high school arms and could select from
among a group that includes Kamisnky, Harvey and Kentucky lefthander Hunter
Green. They also could go for a quicker return, with the most polished
college lefthander in the draft, Gonzaga’s Marco Gonzales.
PROJECTED PICK: MARCO GONZALES.
30. RANGERS: Since 2006, Texas has used eight of its nine first-round picks
on high schoolers. Most of the best preps at this point will be pitchers such
as Kaminsky, Harvey and Green. Florida high school outfielder/quarterback
Cord Sandberg is the type of athlete the Rangers traditionally covet.
PROJECTED PICK: HUNTER GREEN.
31. BRAVES: Atlanta scouting director Tony DeMacio is known for his love for
lefthanders, which could lead him to Kaminsky, Gonzales or Green. McKinney
would become the Braves’ best hitting prospect if they could get him. Harvey
’s father Bryan, a former all-star closer, scouted for the organization,
which also likes prep power arms.
PROJECTED PICK: HUNTER HARVEY.
32. YANKEES: New York may be able to finesse Kaminsky down to its No. 32 pick
if it passes on him at No. 26. If not, Tim Anderson is another player who
could help the left side of the Yankees infield.
PROJECTED PICK: ROB KAMINSKY.
33. YANKEES: No organization has a greater affinity for offensive-minded
catchers than New York. Denney should be able to stay behind the plate, but
he also has enough bat to profile at a less challenging position.
PROJECTED PICK: JON DENNEY.
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