2009 TAMPA BAY RAYS SEASON PREVIEW[翻譯]

看板Rays作者immortalqq (大牛)時間16年前 (2009/02/05 22:48)推噓7(7推 0噓 26→)

留言33則, 6人參與討論串1/1

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：總翻譯大家比較容易看^^ 感謝catsondbs翻譯 : Sunday, February 01, 2009 by Baseball Savant : The thing I remember most about the Rays before the 2008 season began was : listening to Buster Olney on ESPN Radio one morning talking about how he : could see the Rays winning the AL East. At the time I thought he was nuts. : Sure the Rays were shaping up to be a pretty good club, but I thought their : real breakout would be 2009 or 2010. 在08年球季之前我對光芒的最深的印象就是Buster Olney某天在ESPN上講說光芒會如何贏得08的美東冠軍。那時我覺得那只是個玩笑，當然我知道光芒是好的球隊，而且我覺得光芒真正爆發是在2009或者是2010年 : The Rays thought otherwise and proved Olney's premonition correct. The Rays : had a tremendous season in 2008. They won 97-games, the AL East and the AL en : route to the World Series where they fell to the Philadelphia Phillies in : 5-games. I thiny any discussion of the Rays is always going to center around : the supposed "blueprint" they've somehow showed that works against big market : teams. Unfortunately this theory has about as many holes in as can possibly : be tolerated. 光芒證明Olney的預測是對的，他們有猛獸般的08球季，總共贏了97場並拿下美東冠軍、美聯冠軍直指世界大賽，但是在世界大賽敗給費城人隊。討論光芒的重點就在"藍圖" 而這點是跟大市場完全不同的。不幸的是這個理論有許多缺點，但可能可以被忍受。 : Let's think about it for a minute. They got Kazmir in a huge ripoff of the : Mets. They took Carlos Pena off the scrap heap. Turned a former #1 pick into : Matt Garza. Had a 16th round pick (James Shields) turn into gold. Signed : Iwamura from Japan, got JP Howell from Kansas City in the Joey Gathright : deal. Got Dan Wheeler for Ty Wiggington. Took Grant Balfour off the scrap : head and traded for Chad Bradord. Combine that with a TON of first round : draft picks that have worked out (Longoria, Upton, Garza, Crawford & Price) : and you have the Rays blueprint. 我們試著想一想。他們從梅子那裡大搶劫來Kazmir、從土推裡找來Carlos Pena、用第一輪選手換來Matt Garza(楊大猛←→Garza)、把第16輪的J.Shields變成黃金、從日本簽來岩村、用新一代腿哥J.Gathright跟皇家換來JP Howell、用Wiggington換Wheeler、從土推撿到Balfour和交易到潛水艇Braford。結合一堆第一輪(Longoria, Upton, Garza, Crawford and Price)，然後光芒得到他們的藍圖 : The problem is that this a blueprint that is almost unsustainable. Who bats : 1.000 with first round draft picks? Who takes Bryan Bullington over BJ Upton? : Who now is going to trade a Scott Kamir for Victor Zambrano? : At the same time you have to give credit where credit is due. Pulling guys : like Pena, Iwamura, and Balfour off of scrap heaps was amazing. Dealing Young : for Garza, Wiggington for Wheeler and Gathright for Howell were brilliant : moves in retrospect and let's not forget how big of a deal Eric Hinske was : for Tampa Bay early in 2008! The guy hit like a machine and really propelled : the Rays offense early on. The Rays also brought in Gabe Gross to play some : RF last season in a deal with Milwaukee. 問題在於這個藍圖幾乎無法維持，誰可以百分百確定第一輪可以順利養成? 誰會把Bryan Bullington選在BJ Upton前面?(海盜躺著也重槍...) 誰會用V.Zambrano來換S.Kamzir? 撿到Pena,Balfour和岩村是令人驚豔的，回想交易到Garza,Wheeler和Howell是聰明之舉但我們不能忘記恨司機在08年的表現，他打擊就像個機器而且幫助光芒的防守光芒也用G.Gross擔任RF腳色 : By all accounts GM Andrew Friedman did a tremendous job assembling the 2008 : Tampa Bay Rays. This year he's pulled some more moves. The base of the team : is pretty much exactly the same but there are some subtle moves that could : pay big dividends for Tampa Bay in 2009. Signing Pat Burrell to play DH was a : fantastic move. Burrell becomes automatically the best DH Tampa has ever had. : He brings to the team tremendous plate discipline and the ability to hit : 30-35HR per year. Friedman dealt an extra arm in Edwin Jackson to the Tigers : for RF Matt Joyce. Joyce potentially has 30HR power and can play a : staggeringly good defense in RF. GM在08作了太棒的工作了，09他也做了一些補強動作而這些動作將會帶給光芒很大的幫助簽下P.Burrell當DH，Burrell自動成為TB有史以來最好的DH，他擁有極佳的本壘板紀律而且有能力每年敲出30-35HR。GM把E.Jackson交易到老虎得到M.Joyce，Joyce則有年產 30HR的潛力，而且在RF有良好的防守 : Friedman did a good job of getting his pitching staff fortified too. David : Price will now enter the rotation as a full time starter, taking over where : Edwin Jackson left off. Clearly Price has the talent to be a dominant #1 : starter in the major leagues and gaining an arm like that only can improve : the ballclub. In the pen, Friedman didn't rest on his laurels of already : having the best bullpen in the majors. He added guys like Joe Smith, Brian : Shouse and Lance Cormier to provide some depth to go along with dominant : pitchers such as Grant Balfour, JP Howell and Dan Wheeler. GM也加強的投手部分。Top 1新秀D.Price代替Jackson的工作終於加入輪值，很清楚的 Price有當ACE的天份。在牛棚 GM並沒有因為去年是全MLB最佳牛棚而停下腳步，加入了 J.Smith, B.Shouse和L.Cormier來增加深度 : So that is sort of the blueprint Tampa is going under. It's really a great : blueprint and I think that is the real story of Tampa in 2008. They busted : out earlier than I expected, but as all Oakland A's fans know, the real test : comes with repeatability and let's not forget that Tampa didn't come home : with the prize. Last year was an insane year for Tampa. They went from worst : to first and got to the World Series, but now is when the grind for elite : status begins and if the Rays keep winning then they won't have #1 draft : picks to replenish their system. At some point if they keep payroll stagnant : they'll have to keep finding diamonds in the rough and making their draft : choices even more shrewdly because the obvious pick won't be there. They : drafted SS Tim Beckham last season with the #1 overall pick, but that might : be their last #1 pick for quite awhile. 所以這就是光芒藍圖的類型光芒持續贏球他們無法再拿到第一順位的選秀來補充他們的農場，而且如果光芒的預算不能擴大，他們只能在草堆裡尋找鑽石而且在選秀裡更加精明去年他們選T.Beckham為狀元郎，但是這很可能是光芒一段時間內最後的第一順位了 : Will this blueprint cash in on what was missed last season? Let's take a look. : 2009 RAYS STARTING LINEUP : C-Dioner Navarro: 295/349/407; 7HR, 27-2B, 54RBI, 12.6AB/BB, 0SB, 98OPS+ : It's odd to think Navarro is just going to be 25-years old because it seems : he's been around forever. Maybe that's me being a Yankees fan and knowing : about him since he's come up through the minor leagues, but still. If you can : believe from the above stat line, Navarro was actually an All-Star last : season. This had more to do with the fact that Posada & Martinez were hurt : and Varitek is just a shell of his former self, but for now, Navarro is not : only an All-Star catcher but also a championship caliber catcher if you : believe in that sort of thing when a team makes it to the World Series. Last : season Navarro's offense was carried by his .321 BABIP which drove his : batting average to almost .300. For his career to date his established BABIP : is only .292 so he was well over his previous production. The average is : going down meaning the ISO OBP% is going down too, but he did thump a few : more doubles last season so there might be a little more power to come. : Assuming Victor Martinez & Jorge Posada can't catch anymore, is it too much : to say that Navarro might be the 2nd best catcher in the AL behind Joe Mauer? : Matt Wieters isn't up yet and Saltalamacchia hasn't established himself in : Texas yet either. It's a helluva positional advantage to have. Navarro實際上有個All-Star season，當然有部份是因為Posada,V-Mart受傷， Varitek退化嚴重。但是Navarro現在不只是個All-Star更是個有冠軍實力的捕手接著說Navarro的進步..... 如果Posada, V-Mart不能再蹲捕說Navarro是美連第二名的捕手會太超過嗎? 超級新人M.Wieters還沒上來 Salty在條子也還沒展示他在MiLB的實力 : 1B-Carlos Pena: 347/377/494; 31HR, 24-2B, 102RBI, 5.1AB/BB, 1SB, 127OPS+ : First half OPS was .778. Second half OPS was .978! Pena got off to a brutal : start but salvaged a season by becoming a monster in the 2nd half. When you : take a look at Pena's season, there isn't much difference in 2008 as there : was in 2007 as far as the peripheral stats go except for one category: HR/F : ratio. In 2007 when Pena went bezerk at the plate, 30% of his fly balls went : out of the yard. In 2008, only 19% did. What is troubling for Pena is that : from 2004-2006, his HR/F% were 18%, 17% & 18% respectively. In 2007 it was : 30% but in 2008 it was back to 19%. So what number looks like the outlier? : Even in his monster 2nd half, Pena only had a 22% HR/F ratio so even then it : wasn't back up to 30%. Remember too that 2007 was Pena's age-29 season. For : the most part, Pena is probably a .260-.270 hitter with serious power who has : incredible plate discipline. He's also a helluva defensive 1B. You can : certainly make the argument he's the best defensive 1B in the AL outside of : Lyle Overbay. If Pena can avoid a 1st half mess again, then he's easily a : .250-40-110 hitter in the middle of a very good lineup. Pena在08年上半季不理想OPS只有.778 但是下半季卻是.978!!! 接著說Pena飛球跟HR的比率 07年是誇張的30% 就算是08下半季那麼強也只有22% 所以Pena應該不可能回到那麼變態的07年成績而且Pena有極佳的本壘板紀律(選球)還有很不錯的防守能力應該只在Overbay之下如果Pena開季不要那麼糟應該會有 AVG.250 40HR 110RBI的成績 : 2B-Akinori Iwamura: 274/349/380; 6HR, 30-2B, 48RBI, 9.0AB:BB, 8SB, 92OPS+ : I know I'm only remembering Iwamura's play against the White Sox and : conveniently forgetting his performance against Boston & Philadelphia, but : wow did it seem like this kid came to dominate during the playoffs! In : reality, Iwamura is just an OK player. Offensively he's below average : although he does have some doubles power and pretty good strikezone : judgement. On the other hand, his OPS+ of 92 puts him below average : offensively. He's solid defensively at 2B, but he isn't tremendous either. He : strikes out a ton and doesn't make the best of baserunning plays. It's sort : of hard to figure. On the one hand when you watch him play he seems like a : sparkplug. On the other, his stats say he's not all that good. What's : interesting is that there is some semblance of a skill set here but for : whatever reason there is no real consolidation of skills. He is a foreign : import and maybe he needs a couple of years to adjust? I like what I see when : I watch him play but when you take that out of the equation....well.....it's : not that good. 岩村只是個OK player 進攻上大約低於平均他有製造一些2B的power還有良好的好球帶在2B的防守算流暢但非頂尖，三振太多在跑壘上也沒太好看他上場覺得他似乎是個領導份子，從另一方面來看又沒那麼好總之沒那麼好 so so player : 3B-Evan Longoria: 272/343/531; 27HR, 31-2B, 85RBI, 9.7AB:BB, 7SB, 125OPS+ : Longoria finished as the AL Rookie of the Year and actually finished 11th in : the MVP voting. He's just 22 by the way! Let's get the defense out of the way : first. He's great. He'll be a contender for a gold glove at the hot corner : for years to come. His RZR (revised zone rating) was the best in the AL for : 3B with at least 1,000 innings played. It was tied with Scott Rolen so you : know Longoria can pick it at 3B. Offensively, it sound ridiculous but there : is room for the guy to get better. He struckout a little too much meaning his : contact rate could get better and will as he gets more selective at the : plate. As odd as it seems, lefties ate him up besides him being a : right-handed hitter. He didn't hit all that great at home which is odd : because hitters are usually creatures of habit and routine so being at home : should make Longoria more comfortable in the future. Longoria also had a : fairly awful September which sort of played its way into the playoffs. He did : well in the ALDS & ALCS but he hit a woeful .050/.050/.050 in the World : Series! I don't see how he's not the 2nd best 3B in the AL behind A-Rod at : this point and he might be closing fast. If he makes some adjustments, : Longoria could go .300-40-120 and if the Rays win the AL East again, you're : looking at the next AL MVP. 龍哥拿到了08年的新人王而且在MVP票選在第11位他還只有22歲!!!! 在防守上很棒應該會是以後金手套的熱門人選他的RZR是全美聯最佳(超過1000局守備) 進攻上它還有許多空間可以進步，三振太多表示他的contact還有進步空間而且選球也會更好，但是左投對他仍是個大威脅，在自家球場打的比較不好更是奇怪(XD) [作者隱涵龍哥成績↑↑↑ good!!!!] 九月打的很差(應該是受傷的原因) 而且在季後賽很不好雖然ALDS ALCS OK 但是在WS 只有.050/.050/.050 Orz... 他是A-Rod之後得最佳3B 而且差距會越來越小如果他有做些調整及進步大概會有.300 40HR 120RBI !!!!! 而且如果光芒再次拿下美東冠軍別意外龍哥會是MVP : SS-Jason Bartlett: 286/329/361; 1HR, 25-2B, 37RBI, 20.6AB:BB, 20SB, 82OPS+ : Defense is the name of his guy's game. The 20 steals is nice but a guy needs : to steal at a 75% success rate to help a team. Bartlett was caught 6 times : last season so his steal rate was just 77% so he's even teetering on being : not useful there. In all honestly, I'm not entirely sure what Tampa Bay gets : from Bartlett that it couldn't get from Ben Zobrist at SS? Sure Reid Brignac : looks like a bust at this point, but Zobrist actually had a better RZR than : Bartlett at defense with a lot more pop in his bat. Zobrist is also a : switch-hitter who can hit righties, something Bartlett struggles mightily to : do. The more I look it at the more I wonder why Bartlett is playing? He can't : do much with the bat and while his defense is pretty good, he's not Ozzie : Smith either. 防守很棒但是不懂為何TB不用B.Zobrist來當SS Zobrist的RZR比Bartlett還好而且更有power 還是switch hitter [最後用Ozzie Smith酸了Bartlett] : LF-Carl Crawford: 273/319/400; 8HR, 12-2B, 57RBI, 14.8AB:BB, 25SB, 87OPS+ : From 2002-2007, Crawford saw an increase in his OPS+ in every single year! : That's pretty amazing, but last season finger & hamstring problems held him : up and his OPS+ dropped to a terrible 87. Because of his injuries, his power : and speed were decimated and we get the batting line that you see above. I'm : not really sure what to think about Crawford. Because of his speed, he's a : pretty exciting player and he plays a TERRIFIC defensive LF. On the other : hand, you don't need great defense to play LF and that positon is usually : reserved for guys who hit a ton. Because of BJ Upton in CF, the Rays can get : away with having Crawford in LF, but he does have a pretty good skill set. : For the most part he's a 4-tool player with all the tools except power, but : then again because of his doubles and triples potential, he can slug in the : high-.400s. I'm kind of on the fence with Crawford because he seems more like : a fantasy player, but I'm warming up to him. He'll only be 27-years old so : he's just now hitting his prime years! That could get scary. 從02-07 Crawford的OPS+每年進步但是今年只有87.... 去年手指跟大腿傷勢困惱著他不用多說Crawford他進攻上利用速度而且LF防守超好但是不可能把它移防CF 因為CF是BJ Upton 他是個4 tools打者(缺少power) 但是因為速度可以製造許多2B和3B 讓他的SLG可以到.400 他才27歲而且持續進步 : CF-B.J. Upton: 273/383/401; 9HR, 37-2B, 67RBI, 5.5AB:BB, 44SB, 107OPS+ : Shoulder injury was the reason Upton hit 24HR in 2007 but followed up with : just 9 in 2008. The problem is that he had surgery in November and now it : looks like he won't be playing on opening day for Tampa. Upton is just going : to be 24-years old and I really can't imagine what the Pirates think seeing : him blossom the way he has in Tampa Bay while Bryan Bullington sucks. Still, : 2009 might be a wash for Upton. If the shoulder stuff lingers then his power : might not be 100% once again in 2009 although in the 2008 post-season it : didn't seem to be hampered. Upton plays a good defensive CF and has plate : discipline to spare. He strikesout a TON although that did improve from 2007 : to 2008. Upton has all the skills to breakout and I don't think seeing him : with multiple 40-40 seasons is completley out of the question. If it wasn't : for the shoulder, he might be playing for the title as best player in the : game given his position, but it might have to wait a year before we see Upton : finally put it all together. 肩膀問題讓Upton 08年只敲出9HR 現在已經動完手術我還是不懂為什麼Upton已經在TB開花結果而02年狀元郎Bryan Bullington still sucks [海盜真的很可憐一直被鞭明明作者前面就講到不是每個狀元簽都養的出來...] 最算肩膀開好刀Upton在09年還是不會恢復所有的power 防守極佳雖然三振超級多但是仍有再進步 Upton有能力breakout[07年很強了還不算breakout....作者...]40-40對他不會是個問題如果不是肩膀問題他早就是CF這個位子上的最佳球員等待Upton的breakout : RF-Matt Joyce: 252/339/492; 12HR, 16-2B, 33RBI, 7.8AB:BB, 0SB, 116OPS+ : The Rays thought they didn't have a regular RF in Gabe Gross so used an extra : part, Edwin Jackson, to use as trade bait with the Tigers to land minor : league prospect Matt Joyce. Last season was Joyce's first taste of major : league pitching and he aquitted himself very nicely. The Rays are hoping : Joyce can be a lefty power bat. Known to have gap-to-gap power in the minor : leagues, Joyce really stepped up his game and provided power in Comerica : where power pretty much goes to die. Trading in Comerica for the Trop and : getting regular playing time could mean possibly 30HR for Joyce in a Rays : uniform. He's an outstanding defensive player giving the Rays the best : outfield defense in the major leagues potentially. Just 24-years of age : heading in 2009, Joyce has a couple of years of consolidation before he : enters his prime sesaons. By all accounts this was an incredible move on the : part of GM Andrew Friedman. 光芒不認為Gross會是RF的答案所以交易來Joyce 希望Joyce可以帶來左打的power 因為Comerica Park容易吃掉power 所以預計Joyce可以在Trop打出30HR的實力他才24歲 : DH-Pat Burrell: 250/367/507; 33HR, 33-2B, 86RBI, 5.3AB:BB, 0SB, 125OPS+ : Burrell's last 4 years of OPS+ have been 128, 122, 127 & 125. That's : consistency so you know what you are going to get from Burrell if you are a : Rays fan. Essentially the Rays are going to get 30HR, 100RBI, and an OPS+ of : 125. That makes Burrell the best DH the Rays have had in their history and : he's only been the DH for about 5-minutes. It actually works for Burrell too : because he may be the worst LF in baseball defensively. In a reversal of "If : You Can't Beat Them, Join Them", Burrell actually beat Tampa in the 2008 : World Series and now finds himself playing for them. I'm a huge fan of : exploiting the DH position because it's a market inefficiency that only : relies on a player's ability to hit without having to take his defense into : consideration. The Rays are doing just that with Burrell. Having him, Pena, : Longoria, Upton & Joyce in the lineup give Tampa 5 players with the potential : to hit 30HR each. The Rays ranked 4th last season in HR hit but with this : kind of arsenal, they may get even better! Burrell最近四年的OPS+是128, 122, 127和125 Burrell太適合打DH了因為它幾乎是防守上最爛的LF "如果不能打敗他就加入他"正是光芒09年的寫照←簽下Burrell 加上Burrell TB將有五個球員有機會打30HR(Pena Longoria Upton Joyce) : 2009 RAYS BENCH : C-Shawn Riggans: 222/287/407; 6HR, 7-2B, 24RBI, 11.3AB:BB, 0SB, 80OPS+ : IF-Willy Aybar; 253/327/410; 10HR, 17-2B, 33RBI, 10.1AB:BB, 2SB, 92OPS+ : IF-Ben Zobrist: 253/339/505; 12HR, 10-2B, 30RBI, 7.9AB:BB, 3SB, 118OPS+ : OF-Gabe Kapler: 301/340/498; 8HR, 17-2B, 38RBI, 17.6AB:BB, 3SB, 117OPS+ : OF-Gabe Gross: 238/336/414; 13HR, 16-2B, 40RBI, 6.9AB:BB, 4SB, 96OPS+ : OF-Justin Riggiano: 197/247/329; 2HR, 4-2B, 7RBI, 19.0AB:BB, 2SB, 50OPS+ : Ruggiano is the one out of the group that most likely won't be a part of the : team when camp breaks. I like this bench to be honest. Aybar is a pretty good : utility infielder and I already think Zobrist should be the starting SS for : this team. The Rays did a pretty good job of going out and getting OF Gabe : Kapler to shore up the bench a bit. If BJ Upton isn't going to start the : season on time, the Rays could use Kapler in CF or slide Crawford over to CF : and slot Kapler in LF. Lefties tear Gross up, but he can hit righties really : well so he can be a pretty good platoon outfielder and pinch hitter off the : bench for the Rays. What's interesting about this bench too is the amount of : plate discipline it has. Except for Kapler, everyone who is likely to make : the bench for Tampa can draw a walk effectively. Heck, two players had OPS+ : numbers closing in on 12o (Zobrist & Kapler). Obviously you don't want to see : your starting players go down but Tampa Bay could probably weather a minor : injury or two. I'd like to see Zobrist get a chance. 在板凳方面，Ruggiano大概春訓時不會在名單之中。老實說我對光芒的替補方面很滿意，Aybar是個很好的內野工具人，而Zobrist明年應該取代Bartlett先發。今年簽下Gabe Kapler是不錯的動作，假如Upton因傷不能趕上開季，還能夠有人補上CF ( 讓Kapler→ CF或Crawford→ CF Kapler→ LF) Gross雖然完全對付不了左投(2008 .191/.247/.338)，但他對右投的良好表現讓他足夠在外野輪值和代打要員佔一席位（.249/.356/.433）光芒的板凳最棒的是他們的plate discipline。除了Kapler外幾乎每一個人都有選球眼可以選到BB；而且其中有兩人(Zobrist & Kapler)的OPS+接近120，相對其他隊伍會為傷兵而煩惱，閃光有足夠能力去承受一些小傷小痛。 : OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE TAMPA BAY OFFENSE? : There is so much potential in this lineup. With Longoria, Pena, Joyce, Upton, : Crawford and Burrell, there is a muderers row of players! What is somewhat : interesting about the Rays is there 1-2 punch at the top of the order. If you : think the guys I just mentioned are more middle of the order guys, then you : are left with Navarro, Iwamura, and Bartlett as your 1-2-9 hitters. Having : Bartlett at #9 is a no-brainer, but who leads off for this team? I think : Crawford is more of a #6-#7 hitter and if you put Iwamura at #2 then where : does that leave the #1 place in the order? 毫無疑問有龍哥 + Pena + Joyce + Upton + Crawford + Burrell簡直是殺人打線在棒次的安排上，如果你同意上面提的幾個都是中心棒次，那就剩下Narvarro、 Aki和Bartlett要放到1、2、9棒了。無可置疑Bartlett會被放到第9棒，剩下的兩個，首先我認為Crawford比較適合6 7棒，那麼假如放Aki作第二棒，那麼第一棒的人選除了＂他＂還有別人嗎? : Last year Iwamura & Crawford went 1-2 in the lineup, but I don't know. I : don't mind Iwamura hitting 2nd but if there is anything missing with the Rays : it's a leadoff hitter really. This is certainly nitpicking and a lot of : people will tell you that lineup construction doesn't mean a whole lot, but : there is something here that doesn't make for a 100% optimal lineup in Tampa. : While the Yankees have Damon-Jeter and the Red Sox have Pedroia-Youkilis, the : Rays have Iwamura-Crawford and they could be better served other places in : the lineup in my opinon. Would hitting Upton leadoff be such a horrible idea? 昨年是Aki&Crawford做#1 & #2棒，我並不介意把Aki排第二，不過光芒真正需要的是個 leadoff hitter。有些人或許會反駁說棒次的影響沒很大，不過當洋基有大門-Peter、 Sox有Pedroia-Youkilis，而光芒是Aki-Crawford....我覺得比起把他們放一二棒還有更適合的地方，那才是對打線最好的安排。老實說，讓Upton打第一棒難道是這麼糟糕的提議嗎？ : My guess is that Tampa goes: : Iwamura-Crawford-Upton-Pena-Longoria-Burrell-Joyce-Navarro-Bartlett which is : a very formidable lineup. I don't think we'll look back on 2009 if Tampa win : and blame the offense. It's primed and ready to go! 我猜明年打線會是 Aki-Crawford-Upton-Pena-Longoria-Burrell-Joyce-Navarro-Bartlett 這個將會是相當有實力的打線，能夠很有信心地給你保證，在2009年攻擊將不會是個問題 : 2009 RAYS STARTING ROTATION : #1-Scott Kazmir: 152.3IP, 7.3H/9, 9.8K/9, 2.4K:BB, 4.1BB/9, 1.4HR/9, : 1.267WHIP, 127ERA+ : A lefty with 92-mph gas who is just filthy. Kazmir has evolved into a 2-pitch : pitcher, working off his fastball and changeup with the occasional slide : piece thrown in to keep hitters honest. What is pretty amazing is how many : pitchers can walk 4+ per game and give up 1+ HR per game and still manage an : ERA+ of 127!? Kamzir is a legitimate ace with the skill set to contend for : the title of best pitcher in the game. Even though he did make it over 200IP : in 2007, elbow problems at the beginning of the year derailed his season : totals for 2008. It's interesting to note that Kazmir is going to be 25-years : old in 2009 while David Price will be 23. That's only 2-years difference yet : Kazmir has pitched 5 seasons already. Even with Price on the team, Kazmir has : by far and away the best stuff on the roster. The big problem is that he : simply can't cut down his pitches. If Kazmir could half his walk rate he'd be : almost superhuman on the mound. He's still so young so he could have a couple : of consolidation years left in him, but at some point you wonder when he's : going to put it all together. 能投到有92mph的左投絕對是犯規。Kaz的直球和Changeup和偶爾一用的滑球對打者而言都是殺人的武器。更令人驚訝的是他雖然BB/9 = 4.1和HR/9 >1卻仍然投出127ERA+的好成績，稱他為當今最好的投手之一絕對是當之無愧。和23歲新上場的Price比較， 25歲的Kaz已經在大聯盟投了5個seasons了，即使Price加入光芒的輪值，Kaz的stuff始於是很明顯地較為突出。要注意的是，雖然曾經在07年投了200+IP ，他的傷患在08年對他影響甚大，他最大的問題還是壓不下用球數，如果能將BB/9壓到2以下他就是完美的超人了（按:這不是廢話嗎 = =) 他是還年輕還有時間讓他成長，不過你會不禁疑惑要到甚麼時候他才能長成完全體 : #2-James Shields: 215IP, 8.7H/9, 6.7K/9, 4.0K:BB, 1.7BB/9, 1.0HR/9, : 1.153WHIP, 125ERA+ : Shields put up almost a carbon copy of his 2007 season in 2008. You can't : really say Shields is a one-year wonder now that he's got two years under his : belt. Shields isn't overaly dominant. His average fastball is 90.4mph, but he : has a 4-pitch arsenal that he pulls the string on almost anytime he wants to. : He works mostly off a fastball, cutter, changeup trio but he'll show a : curveball every now and again. His control is pinpoint but he also has : stellar command to go along with it. He's thrown 215IP the last couple of : seasons and given this stuff/command, you'd have to at least put him into the : discussion as a #2 starter. Last season he started 33 games and threw 3,123 : pitches. That's 94-95 pitches per game or 14.5/IP. If he averaged 6.5IP/GS : then he could get at least 1-more inning's worth of work pushing his average : pitches/G up to 109-110. That's an extra 33IP on top of his 215 making it : 248IP per year for him. Could he handle that? I don't know but at some point : you take the reins off a pitcher who has established a workload the way : Shields has the last two seasons. If he pitches close to 250IP with 7K/9 and : 1.7BB/9 then you are looking at a borderline #1 starter. Shields在08年複製了他在07年的好成績，足以證明他不是個fluke。雖然還沒有宰制聯盟，他的4種球種和平均90.4mpb的直球使他所向披糜，而且還有很好的Control (投進好球帶的能力)和有漂亮的command(想丟到的位置) 以他的stuff/command 和過去兩季都貢獻了215IP，身為球隊的#2 Starter他相當稱職去年他先發了33場，總共投了３,123球，平均每場是94 95球（14.5/IP) 假使他能將Pitch per game拉到109-110，就能每年多吃33IP，一年248IP會否吃不消呢? 考慮到他過去兩季的工作量似乎也不是不可能。如果能吃250IP又能維持現在的BB/9 和K/9，那就是個#1 Starter的表現了 : #3-Matt Garza: 184.7IP, 8.3H/9, 6.2K/9, 2.2K:BB, 2.9BB/9, 0.9HR/9, 1.240WHIP, : 118ERA+ : Solid debut for Garza in his first time role of regular major league starter. : I don't care what Twins Nation says, they got hosed on the Matt Garza for : Delmon Young deal. Plain and simple. I've read reports where Garza made : adjustments in 2008 that favored a little more control rather than striking : people out so if you are wondering why that K/9 isn't as high as his minor : league numbers would indicate, there is your answer. Garza did make some : adjustments back to strikeouts though. In his first 8 starts of 2008, Garza : fanned only 3.9 hitters per 9IP. In his last 22 starts, he upped that rate to : 7.0/9IP! He had a nerve problem that forced him to miss 3 starts, but you : can't really argue with the numbers here. If his last 22 starts are any guide : and if he keeps getting better with a more consistent feel for his pitches, : why couldn't he push that K/9 up to 7.5-7.8? This guy looks all the way solid : to me! Garza大聯盟的首季先發很棒，不管Twins怎麼說這次交易絕對是我們得利了。有報導說 Garza今年"降K求控球"，所以三振/9沒小聯盟時這麼高還可以接受。不過他也有一直在調整，在季初8次先發他的K/9只有3.9，而在之後的22場則躍升至7.0!　他的手腕問題令他錯過了3場先發，不過並不影響這所有的數據都證明他是個好投手。依他的後22場的成績預測，明年很可能可以把K/9升到7.5-7.8。總之他是個很棒的先發! : #4-Andy Sonnanstine: 193.3IP, 9.9H/9, 5.8K/9, 3.4K:BB, 1.7BB/9, 1.0HR/9, : 1.288WHIP, 102ERA+ : Sonnanstine is actually a pretty sweet pitcher when you look at his skill : set. He's got great command and doesn't give up many bombs, but he doesn't : strike a ton of hitters out so the upside is limited. That H/9IP would look : better but his BABIP was .312 which was above league average. The big problem : is that Sonnanstine is relying completely on his guile. His average fastball : sat at 87mph last season, which coming from a righty is well below average. : He throws up to 5 pitches for strikes, but I don't know. A few more : strikeouts, a few more groundballs and who know what can happen? With Price : in the mix, Sonnanstine is nothing more than a #4-#5 starter, but when you : can get 200IP out of guy that is going to keep you in games because he : doesn't walk anyone then that's a great asset to have in your rotation. : Sonnanstine will only be 26-years old this season so there is certainly time. 老實說Andy不是個很好的投手，控球不錯 HR/9也還好，不過低三振率表示他的高點也不會很高。明年H/9會稍微改善但那是因為有點過高的Babip，問題在於他是個軟投派的投手，平均速度只有87mph的直球遠遠低於聯盟，所以能倚靠的僅僅只有巧妙的配球。好壞球比也不漂亮…好吧，如果能多投點三振，多一點滾地球或許能嚇你一跳也不一定。有Price在輪值，Andy充其量是個4、5號先發，不過隊上有個四壞率低又能吃200IP的先發也不壞。今季他只有26歲，ya He still has time. : #5-David Price: 14IP, 5.8H/9, 7.7K/9, 3.0K:BB, 2.6BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 0.929WHIP, : 230ERA+ : Here comes the ringer! Before we get ga-ga over those numbers, remember that : Price's BABIP in those 14IP was a ridiculous .225. Price works off a : fastball-slider-changeup arsenal although he barely used his change in the : majors last season. He pumps his fastball at 94-95mph as a lefty and in : reality it might only be a matter of time before he is the #1 starter, : relegating Scott Kazmir to #2 status. It's a good problem to have if you are : Tampa Bay. There really isn't a knock on Price at this point. He's a good kid : from Vanderbilt with tremendous makeup. He blew through the SEC and he blew : through the minor leagues on his way to Tampa Bay. He's a 6-6 lefty who : throws in the mid-90s with great control of all his pitches. Price even : pitched in the ALCS and World Series where he did a great job. He had a rough : spot in Game 2 of the World Series but the Rays were up 4-0 in that game and : the 2 runs Price gave up were inconsequential. In postseason play he allowed : just 2 hits and struckout 8 batters in 5.7IP! The only real knock for this : guy is going to be his durability and health. He only threw about 130IP last : season and 110 of those were in the minor leagues. Expecting 30+ starts from : him and 180-200IP might be too much too soon for the guy. 數據很不錯，不過既是小樣本(14IP)又是超低的babip(.225)，所以看看就好。他投三種球種: fastball-slider-changeup，但control不好的changeup在mlb幾乎沒用到。左投有94-95mph的fastball（按:先發時是90-94）代表假如時日注定會把Kaz擠到#2的位置，但對真正的光芒迷來說將是快樂的煩惱。身高6-6左投加上精準的mid-90s fastball，這個Vanderbilt來的天才小子沒甚麼真正的問題，在大學、小聯盟甚至WS都有不錯的表現。唯一缺點是他的健康和耐力都需要注意 : 去年包括在小聯盟投的110IP總共只投了130IP(按:他07年沒趕上球季，所以在職棒就只有這一年 )，假如今年就期望看到他30+先發和180-200IP也許是太過夢想了。 : SP-Jason Hammel: 78.3IP, 9.5H/9, 5.1K/9, 1.3K:BB, 4.0BB/9, 1.3HR/9, : 1.506WHIP, 97ERA+ : SP-Jeff Niemann: 16IP, 10.1H/9, 7.9K/9, 1.8K:BB, 4.5BB/9, 1.7HR/9, 1.625WHIP, : 88ERA+ : OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE RAYS ROTATION? : It's simply another dominating starting rotation in the AL East. The one : thing that bothers me just a bit is that the Rays really don't have a #1 : starter. Kazmir is certainly a #1 starter in "stuff", but his durability is : always going to be a factor it seems. If he can go 200+IP then this argument : becomes a non-issue but if there is a knock on this rotation, it's that they : don't have a real stopper at the top. They have some candidates in Kazmir, : Price and even Garza; all have the goods to be a #1, but I think Garza & : Price are still a bit too young and Kazmir dealt with injury problems yet : again. 就很棒的先發輪值~ 唯一缺憾是缺少了一個真正的#1 starter,　Kaz有#1的stuff但缺少 #1 的吃局數能力。除非Kaz今年能吃200+IP證明並不是那回事，否則光芒少了一張王牌始終是事實。Kaz、Price甚至Garza都有能力做#1，但可惜前一個有傷而後兩個又有點太年輕了。 : Best case is that this rotation dominates because it simply has too much : talent not too. Worst case is that Kazmir has injury issues and Price goes : about 120IP. That would be tough because you'd have a lot of the : responsibilities thrust upon Shields, Sonnanstine and Garza with a couple of : fill ins. I'm not sure Hammel & Niemann are going to be great and Wade Davis : and Jake McGee probably aren't ready just yet. 明年的Best case是先發們實實在在地宰制美東；而worst case是Kaz受傷痛影響而Price 只吃了大約120IP，那樣的話會為剩下的Shields、Andy、Garza和替補帶來很大的壓力。後備的Hammel和Niemann會投成怎樣還不確定，而 Wade Davis和Jake McGee看起來則是還未準備好。 : Another factor to consider is : how much better the rest of the AL East got in relation to Tampa Bay. The : Yankees got CC Sabathia & AJ Burnett and also get a healthy Chien-Ming Wang : back in 2009 with Joba Chamberlain at least starting the season healthy. : Those are 4 starters the Rays didn't have to compete with last season. The : Red Sox signed Brad Penny & John Smoltz while also having Clay Buchholz & : Michael Bowden waiting to make an impact. Those are 4 pitchers Tampa didn't : face last season either. : Don't get me wrong. This is a great rotation to have, but there are some : questions marks that should possibly be concerning for the Rays down the : road. If this was any other division in baseball, it wouldn't really matter, : but because Tampa plays in the same division as the Yankees & Red Sox, it : changes things dramatically when trying to stay and keep being competitive. 另一個因素的是美東其他勁旅，洋基季後簽下的CC & AJ Burnett 還有健康的Wang + Joba，紅襪方面的Penny & Smoltz加上八扣子和Michael Bowden，全部是都是小魚昨年沒有對上的投手。光芒的輪值的確是很好，和其他分區比較也是首屈一指，可是當身在美東軍火庫，即使一點點小問題都可能會造成很大影響。 : 2009 RAYS BULLPEN : CL-Troy Percival: 45.7IP, 5.7H/9, 7.5K/9, 1.4K:BB, 5.3BB/9, 1.8HR/9, : 1.226WHIP, 98ERA+ : RP-Dan Wheeler: 66.3IP, 6.0H/9, 7.2K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.0BB/9, 1.4HR/9, 0.995WHIP, : 142ERA+ : LP-J.P. Howell: 89.3IP, 6.2H/9, 9.3K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.9BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 1.131WHIP, : 200ERA+ : RP-Grant Balfour: 58.3IP, 4.3H/9, 12.7K/9, 3.4K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 0.5HR/9, : 0.891WHIP, 288ERA+ : RP-Chad Bradford: 59.3IP, 9.0H/9, 2.6K/9, 1.1K:BB, 2.3BB/9, 0.5HR/9, : 1.247WHIP, 212ERA+ : RP-Joe Nelson: 54IP, 7.0H/9, 10.0K/9, 2.7K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 0.8HR/9, 1.185WHIP, : 213ERA+ : RP-Juan Salas: 6.3IP, 7.1H/9, 11.4K/9, 2.0K:BB, 5.7BB/9, 0.0HR/9, 1.421WHIP, : 63ERA+ : RP-Lance Cormier: 71.7IP, 9.8H/9, 5.8K/9, 1.4K:BB, 4.3BB/9, 0.5HR/9, : 1.563WHIP, 113ERA+ : LP-Brian Shouse: 51.3IP, 8.1H/9, 5.8K/9, 2.4K:BB, 2.5BB/9, 0.9HR/9, : 1.169WHIP, 153ERA+ : According to The Hardball Times's WPA (Wins Probability Added), the Rays had : the best bullpen in the majors last season. They bring back the same pen : although they've added guys like Joe Nelson, Lance Cormier and Brian Shouse : to the mix. All are good pick-ups but it creates a log jam in the pen. The : closer, Troy Percival, is the worst reliever on the team! How can a guy who : gives up 2 bombs per 9IP and walks 5 per 9IP hold down a closer's job? It : would seem putting in Percival is pouring gas on an already raging fire! 根據TBT的WPA，去年小魚有著全聯盟最好的牛棚。新一季除了去年的原班人馬外，還簽下了Joe Nelson、Lance Cormier、Brian Shouse，令本來已經一流的牛棚更爆炸了 (按:能用的已經有13人了)。本來的Closer Troy Percival看成績反而是最糟糕的後援　囧找一個每9局5BB 2HR的投手頂closer似乎不是很明智的決定。 : When you think about the pen, you know that Howell, Bradford, Balfour, : Wheeler and Nelson are automatic. That leaves only 2 spots. One is going to : Percival when he's healthy because he's the closer leaving only one which I'm : guessing goes to Shouse because he's left handed and JP Howell owns both : righties and lefties. That leaves both Salas and Cormier out in the cold but : it also doesn't allow room for a guy like Jason Hammel or Jeff Niemann to be : a long man out of the pen in preparation for spot starts when the Rays will : need them. 在開季的25人名單，沒人質疑Howell, Bradford, Balfour, Wheeler, Nelson 5人將會是我們主力的RP群， Closer Percy有機會留下，牛棚最後一個位子可能會給左投Shouse; 這代表沒進的人有 Salas、Cormier，也沒有機會讓能替補先發的Hammel和Niemann準備。 (按: 兩位替補先發都out of options了，能過waivers的機會看起來不大) : Even so this is a NASTY pen. Howell & Balfour and downright FILTHY. Wheeler & : Nelson are very solid if not as brutal on opposing hitters as Balfour & : Howell. That leaves Chad Bradford who is effective in his own right along : with LOOGY Brian Shouse. The closer's spot is Percival's but in all reality : the big guy is going to be on the DL a bit so the closer's role probably : falls to Dan Wheeler in that instance. Wheeler had 13 saves last season in : Percival's absence. 儘管如此這仍然是一個超強力的牛棚。有超強力的Howell 和 Balfour，還有相當有實力的Wheeler和Nelson，一人左Shouse和潛水艇Bradford，Closer暫時仍然是容易受傷的 Percy，進DL後大概會交給Wheeler關門。 : This is a great bullpen. The log jam creates quite a bit of depth with : Cormier, Salas and Hammel ready to step in when needed. Still, I don't see : how this pen doesn't shorten games to at least 6IP or even possibly 5IP to be : honest. There isn't a weak link except for Percival and if the game is on the : line I don't mind putting anyone in there except for maybe Shouse becasue if : the game is on the line with a lefty up, I'd rather have JP Howell facing : them down than Shouse. That's 6 pitchers you can put into high leverage : situations at any time. Good grief that's awesome! 牛棚爆炸令深度大增，想憑這群RP在6局甚至5局就凍結比賽也不是不可能。除了Percy有點抖，每一位投手都能獨當一面，關鍵的時候隨便推哪個出來也沒所謂。except for Shouse, 即使接下來全都是左打，我覺得讓J.P. Howell上也比Shouse安心。有6個強力後援在，沒在怕啦 : OVERALL PROJECTION FOR THE 2009 RAYS : The AL East is simply going to be a blood bath. I can't believe I'm saying : this but I'm predicting that the Rays will finish in 3rd place in the AL East : for 2009. That they'll win 90-games in my opinion is a no-brainer. Hell, if : they won 93-94 games it still might only be good enough for 3rd place in the : East. I think the Rays will score runs and I think they'll do a great job at : preventing runs, but so goes for the Yankees & Red Sox too. One thing that : really helped Tampa along in 2008 was New York being horribly down and the : Red Sox running into some bad luck without having Josh Beckett healthy for : almost the entire season. At this point both New York & Boston look ready to : go and Tampa won't have that ace up their sleeve in 2009. They'll be an : excellent baseball team and in reality right now they probably are one of the : top-5 teams in the majors, but the problem is that 2 other teams in that : top-5 play in the same division as Tampa Bay! Third place! Wow. 美東戰區會有一番血戰是肯定的了，說出來或許會被打，不過大概Rays會拿90勝以上而最後名列第三吧，老實說在美東拿93-94可能也只能第三。Rays在得分和防守會表現很好，不過洋基紅襪也不是蓋的。08年小魚傳奇是靠著天時地利人和，09年要應付兩隊的完整陣容，又少了一個王牌壓場，長成的小魚明年大概會是聯盟Top 5 teams的其中一隊吧，只是…………………全MLB前五強有前三強在美東囧 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.229.161.104

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