[Stat] Playoff Rotation
Fangraph http://goo.gl/hIRB
1) David Price CHONE 4.02 nERA , 4.16 FIP
2010: 4.4 WAR, 3.44 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 3.32 tERA, 2.73 ERA
In 2010, Price has shown signs of being the ace the Rays need. His strikeout
rate has been excellent and he has cut down on the walks from 2009. Still, he
isn』t as good as his ERA, and his xFIP likely indicates good fortune on fly
balls. His CHONE 「true talent」 projection might irk some, but one can』t
simply focus on the current season while ignoring prior performance. Price is
a tremendous young pitcher, but just as a closer look at his numbers shows
that he shouldn』t win the Cy Young award, they also show that it would be
premature to say that he』s one of the top aces in the playoffs. Nonetheless,
he gives the Rays a good chance to win every time he takes the mound, no
matter who the opponent.
2) James Shields CHONE 4.09 nERA , 4.06 FIP
2010: 2.3 WAR, 4.27 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, 4.45 tERA, 5.04 ERA
Who had the better game: Pitcher A, who pitched six innings, struck out
seven, walked two, and got 10 ground balls, six fly balls, and two liners; or
Pitcher B, who pitched 6.2 innings, struck out three, walked three, and got
seven ground balls, 11 fly balls, and three liners? It has to be Pitcher A,
right? Both games were this past Sunday, and Pitcher A got the loss after
giving up 5 earned runs, while Pitcher B got the all-important win and gave
up no runs. Pitcher A is James Shields, and Pitcher B is Bruce Chen. That
pretty much sums up Shields』 season.
Yes, his ERA is terrible, but Shields leads all qualified pitchers in HR/FB
ratio. In other words, Shields is probably having more than his share of bad
luck (witness his career rate of 11.8%), and he』s only 40th among the same
group in FB% — below David Price, which explains why Shields』 xFIP is
better than Price』s. Shield』s walk rate is up, but it is still excellent at
2.22 per 9 IP, and his K rate has jumped to 8.44 per 9 IP. Despite his
batted-ball profile being about the same as usual, he has by far the highest
BABIP of his career. This isn』t to say that Shields is a great pitcher (read
this for a deeper look into a possible cause of his home run problems this
season), but both this season』s peripherals and CHONE』s projection indicate
that he』s probably a very good #2.
3) Matt Garza CHONE 4.23 nERA , 4.28 FIP
2010: 1.7 WAR, 4.53 FIP, 4.56 xFIP, 4.67 tERA, 3.92 ERA
The rich man』s Armando Galarraga! It』s a joke, but there is an element of
truth to it, as his no-hitter masks a mediocre season. It isn』t clear
whether Garza or Shields will pitch second in the rotation, but I think
Shields is the better pitcher. Garza has the better ERA, but Shields has the
better FIP, xFIP, and tERA this season. Garza』s HR/FB rate doesn』t indicate
he has had bad luck, and he isn』t much of a groundballer. He doesn』t give
up many walks, but his K rate this season is unexceptional after being over
eight per nine innings last season. Garza is a decent pitcher, but he should
not be expected to dominate.
4) Jeff Niemann CHONE 4.42 nERA , 4.56 FIP
2010: 1.0 WAR, 4.75 FIP, 4.41 xFIP, 4.51 tERA, 4.49 ERA
Niemann has been battling shoulder trouble, and it isn』t clear yet whether
he or Wade Davis will be the Rays fourth starter. Whatever the reason,
Niemann has taken a step back this season after a good 2009. His K rate
improved, but is still below average. In 2009, he primarily succeeded by not
giving up home runs and walks; and while, like Shields, his home run problems
this season are at least partly a random fluctuation, his walk rate going up
combined with unexceptional strikeout and groundball skills doesn』t make up
for it very much. Still, if he』s healthy, he』s certainly a better #4 option
than the likes of Nick Blackburn and Tommy Hunter, and arguably even A.J.
Burnett at this point.
5) Wade Davis CHONE 4.85 nERA , 4.97 FIP
2010: 0.9 WAR, 4.83 FIP, 4.86 xFIP, 4.61 tERA, 4.14 ERA
Davis probably disappointed a good chunk of Rays fans with his first full
season in the majors. Whether or not those expectations were realistic is a
question for another time. Davis generated neither gaudy strikeout nor
groundball numbers this season, and his walk rate this season has been
average-ish. While his numbers taken together put him in the same category
with the aforementioned Hunter and Blackburn, I think his superior strikeout
ability and youth puts him a small step ahead of them at the moment (and a
larger one for the future). The Rays probably don』t want to depend on Davis
in the playoffs, but that could be said of every other team and their #4
starter, and if Niemann is ready to go, they won』t have to, anyway.
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