[Note] Andrew Friedman's Off-Season To Do List

看板Rays作者knoxvillt (胖胖)時間14年前 (2010/11/15 01:20)推噓14(14推 0噓 12→)

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Andrew Friedman's Off-Season To Do List: Creating the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays The biggest question in my mind right now - and probably in the mind of all Rays fans - is, "What are the Rays going to do this off-season?" Are they going to stand pat, content with their team's youth and willing see how everyone develops? Will they be aggressive in the free agents market? Will they be making high profile trades? While it's impossible to say for sure what the Rays are going to do, we can take some pretty darn good guesses. 現在有個重要課題在也許存在我和光芒球迷的心裡，"光芒在季賽結束之後要怎麼補強呢？" 他們是要按兵不動讓隊上的小夥子去填補空位且樂意看到每個人成長？還是要競逐於自由球員市場？或者積極採取球員交易？雖然不可能確定球團將要做些什麼但我們可以做些良好且合適的猜測。 Before we begin, though, we need to take know where the Rays stand. As we discussed last week, the Rays have a max of around $10-13 million to spend this off-season to build their 2011 roster. They are full of depth and talent at third base, shortstop, second base, catcher, and the outfield, leaving holes only at first base and the DH position. Our rotation is jammed to the gills, needing to find room to slide in wünderboy Jeremy Hellickson, and our bullpen has very few guaranteed returning members. 主題開始之前，我們需要知道光芒處於何種情形。正如我們上週討論，光芒在季賽結束最多擁有10～13M的資金用來補強2011年陣容。球隊在三壘手、游擊手、二壘手、捕手和外野手位置擁有充足人才，餘下一壘手和投手指定打擊是缺點所在。球隊先發輪值相當擁擠，需要替 Jeremy Hellickson 找個位置讓他先發而且牛棚少數成員確定會留在陣中。 That's where we are currently, so next: where do we want to be? The common public perception is that the Rays are going to use 2011 as a rebuilding year, dropping down in competitiveness after losing big players like Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano. If this was the case, then the Rays wouldn't need to make any large moves this off-season. Sit back, let the young players develop, and fill all holes internally with our Triple-A depth. However, I don't believe that's what the Rays are going to do. 這是我們目前的狀況，所以下一步：我們要朝哪個方向前進呢？一般大眾認為光芒會利用2011球季來做為球隊重建，球隊失去重要球員像是 Carl Crawford 和 Rafael Soriano 會使競爭力下降。假如這是事實，那球隊在賽季結束不需要做任何太大的變動。在一旁靜靜看著，讓年輕球員成長，並且把3A球員拉上來填補上述所提到的空缺。不過，我不相信那是光芒會去做的事情。 As they stand, the Rays are still a very good team, probably with a true-talent level somewhere in the 82-89 win range. While that might be enough to compete in other divisions, in the AL East it's only good enough for third place and a seat on the sofa for the playoffs. Crazy things can happen, though, like the Red Sox losing their entire roster to injuries, and the Rays are still a strong enough team to remain competitive and in the race all season long. That said, I can guarantee that Andrew Friedman isn't just focused on 2012 - he'll want to make the 2011 team as competitive as possible while not sacrificing the long-term future of the team. He may not be able to go "all-in" like he did this season, he can still make some significant changes and improvements to the Rays using the resources available to him. 在球隊目前狀態，光芒仍舊是支非常棒的球隊，大概是一支82～89勝的隊伍。雖然這足夠在其他分區競爭，在美聯東區這只能獲得第三名且無法進入季後賽。然而偶爾會發生難以預料的事情，像是紅襪因為球員受傷失去完整先發隊形仍保持競爭力並且和光芒在賽季競爭一段很長的時間。這就是說，我敢保證 Andrew Friedman 不會只關注2012年球季 - 他想要讓球隊在2011年盡可能保有競爭力而不會犧牲球隊長遠的發展。也許不能像這個球季把所有人留下(跟球隊預算有關，不能把想要的球員留在球隊裡)，但仍可以利用手邊資源對球隊做一些重要的改變跟改善。 And so, knowing how Andrew Friedman has worked in the past, let's take a stab at his off-season To Do List. What should we expect out of this off-season? 以 Andrew Friedman 過去的處理方式，接下來讓我們將焦點放在季後"必須去做的清單"。什麼是我們在季後所期待的？ 1. Find a slugger / first baseman. 尋找砲手 / 一壘手問題 Every fan wants to see their team go out and have a decadent off-season, throwing money around and acquiring big-name players, but that hasn't been the Rays' style in recent years. Instead of shooting for the best free agent talents available, the Rays have sat back and let the market work itself out. Let the teams with the deep pocketbooks sign players to huge, long-term extensions - extensions that almost always look silly after 4-5 years - and the Rays will sit back and pick up all the undervalued scraps. The Rays have a great talent for player evaluation, so this strategy has worked for them in the past (like with Carlos Pena and Joaquin Benoit), but it is riskier and so it can backfire easily as well (ugh, Pat Burrell). 每一位球迷都想看到他們的球隊能夠變強而且有一個揮霍的季後，灑錢並且簽下明星球員，但是這不是光芒近幾年的風格，在大家競逐市場上最好的球員，取而代之的是光芒在一旁觀看並且不去理會他們的競價。讓口袋深度很夠的球隊簽下又臭又長的合約(長到十分可笑的4~5年)然後光芒會找尋剩下被低估的球員，光芒擁有一群評價很棒的球員，所以在過去這個策略十分管用(像是 Carlos Pena 和 Joaquin Benoit), 但這也會帶來風險，所以也非常容易簽到假貨(噢...，Pat Burrell...)。 With Carlos Pena leaving, the Rays do need a big bat in the middle of their line-up. They have a glaring hole at first base that could be filled internally - Dan Johnson, Ben Zobrist, and Leslie Anderson are all possible solutions - but my guess is the Rays go out to acquire a slugger that can play either at first base or DH. Will the Rays spend a large amount of money on this hole? No, we're not going to be signing Paul Konerko anytime soon, but that doesn't mean we can't find a good deal out there. Carlos Pena的離去，球團需要一位長打者放在中心打線。一壘防區是個很大的問題可以從球隊內部球員來解決 - Dan Johnson、Ben Zobrist 和 Leslie Anderson 都是可能的解決方案 - 但我的猜測是光芒不會從這三人中選擇而是找一個砲手擔任一壘手或是投手指定打擊。這樣光芒會在這個問題花上大筆金額嗎？不會，我們不會在任何時候很快的就簽下Paul Konerko，但那不代表我們找不到一位好球員。 2. Build a cheap bullpen. 打造一個便宜的牛棚投手群 Looking at the Rays' roster right now, I only see three bullpen members that are under team control for the 2011 season: J.P. Howell, Jake McGee, and Andy Sonnanstine. Everyone else is a free agent (or in Dan Wheeler's case, will be a free agents once the Rays decline his $4M option), meaning the Rays have at least four spots in the bullpen to fill. The Rays do have plenty of bullpen options waiting in Triple-A - Dale Thayer, Winston Abreu, and R.J. Swindle jump to mind - but they could use more depth. Expect the Rays to sign many cheap bullpen arms, offering lots of players small contracts or minor league deals, allowing them to build up depth in case of injury or ineffectiveness. Also, I wouldn't be surprised is Grant Balfour or Randy Choate re-signed with us. 現在來看光芒球員名單，我只有看到3個牛棚成員是球隊在2011年球季能使用的： J.P. Howell、Jake McGee 和 Andy Sonnanstine。其他人都成為自由球員(或者在 Dan Wheeler個案裡，會成為自由球員是光芒拒絕執行他合約裡的4M球團選擇權)，這表示球隊牛棚最少有4個空缺要去填補。球團3A擁有充足的牛棚新秀正等待著機會 - Dale Thayer、Winston Abreu 和 R.J. Swindle 準備好上MLB - 但牛棚需要增強更多的深度。預料球團可能會簽下許多價格便宜的投手，提供給這些球員短年數或是小聯盟合約，建立牛棚深度並容許可能發生的傷兵產生或是投手沒有達到預期表現的情況。同樣的，對於把 Grant Balfour 或是 Randy Choate 再找回來我不會感到意外。 3. Shop Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. 將 Matt Garza 和 Jason Bartlett 交易 As much as I love both players, it's a matter of resource allocation. Both Garza and Bartlett will make more than $5M in 2010, while their spots can be easily filled with Jeremy Hellickson and Reid Brignac. Hellickson and Brignac likely won't be as good as Garza and Bartlett out of the gate (although you could make the argument that they might be), but that doesn't matter - they're our future, while Bartlett and Garza will hit free agency in only two years. If trading these two can net us some major-league ready prospects, much like the Scott Kazmir - Sean Rodriguez trade, then it's what needs to happen. 這兩位選手我都一樣喜歡，這是同位置球員相互卡位的問題。Garza 和 Bartlett 在2010年球季薪水都要花5M，雖然 Jeremy Hellickson 和 Reid Brignac 能輕易的補上他們所留下的空缺。 Hellickson 和 Brignac 很有可能沒辦法像 Garza 和 Bartlett 表現一樣好(雖然你可以提出他們可以表現一樣好的論點)，但那不是問題所在 - 他們是球隊未來的基石，Garza 和 Bartlett 成為自由球員還有2年。如果將他們交易出去換來一些準備好上Major的新秀，像是 "Scott Kazmir - Sean Rodriguez" 交易案，然而這件事是需要發生的。 4. Shop BJ Upton 交易 B.J. Upton What to do with Upton? He'll be getting a raise his off-season and we have more than enough outfield depth (Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, Ben Zobrist), so many people want to see him traded. However, it's unlikely that we'd get a good deal for him considering how much of his value is tied to his defense, and his swing was finally back on track by the end of the season. Now is the Rays' last chance to lock Upton up for a below-market-value contract, maybe shooting for a three-year, $15-18M deal. If Upton still doesn't sign, then I believe we should try to shop him at the trading deadline or next off-season this off-season. The off-season market for centerfielders is shallow, and Upton could be the most enticing player on the market. This could be our best shot to get a good value for Upton, so if a good deal comes along, the Rays should jump on it. 該如何決定Upton的去向呢？他的價錢在季末會上漲且球隊外野人滿為患 ( Desmond Jennings、Matt Joyce、Sean Rodriguez、Ben Zobrist )，所以許多人想看到他被交易。然而，球隊不太可能給一份好合約考慮到他的價值僅在防守上，並且他的狀況起伏不定直到季末結束時才回到軌道。現在是球團最後機會鎖定 Upton 低於市場價值合約，也許給一份3年、15～18M的合約，如果Upton不簽約的話，然後我相信我們必須嘗試在交易期限或下個球季季後兜售他。由於今年市場上中外野手沒什麼大物，所以Upton必然是十分搶手。這是我們可以讓Upton的價值發揮到很不錯的時間點，假設有好的交易，球隊勢必要去交易。 Anyway, that's my best guess of Friedman's off-season checklist. Any thoughts? 無論如何，這是我對 Friedman 季末工作清單最好的猜測。還有任何的看法嗎？原文出處：http://tinyurl.com/2wtxmtr -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.231.50.249

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