[Note] 2011 ZiPS Projections
http://goo.gl/9Tz3l
點進去看Projection Dan Johnson全職先發 OPS+111 @@
The Rays are ######.
OK, that's a stretching a bit for the shock factor, unless you fill in those
6 character with a non-expletive, like decent. We all know that one of the
362 Rules of Trite Writing is that when you say the effect of something
cannot be overstated the writer in question will immediately overstate the
effect of something.
So, let's try to skirt the rule and instead say that you almost cannot
overstate the effect of the possible relief pitcher losses by the Rays. 6 Ray
relievers are free agents and 5 of those 6 didn't suck in 2010. Here are the
Five Alive! relievers for Tampa Bay this past season:
Pitcher IP ERA
Soriano 62.1 1.73
Benoit 60.1 1.34
Wheeler 48.1 3.35
Choate 44.2 4.23
Balfour 55.1 2.28
--------------------------------
271.0 2.68
While the Rays would have to replace a lot of these innings anyway, thanks to
the vagaries of regression, that's still a good chunk of a bullpen to replace
(about 2/3 of relief stints were by these 5 pitchers). They also have a
weighted average leverage index of 1.26, so on bottom-line win value, you're
essentially losing a Cy Young Award plus some valuable change.
The Rays have done a good job scrounging on spare parts to make bullpens, but
there's a limit to how much you can do - it's hard to replace most of a
bullpen in a single offeason by this method and it's hard to get results like
2010.
All is not lost, however - the team has enough pitching and defense and Evan
Longoria to keep from being a bad team, but if the Rays follow through with
their intention to cut >$10 million in payroll from 2010, they are probably
the 3rd-best team in the AL East. It's a very ugly free agent market and the
chances of someone that can contribute doing a Bobby Abreu and falling
through the cracks this winter are fairly slim. Right now, I can't see Tampa
Bay being better than an 85-90 win team, short of some surprises.
The team will survive in the long-term thanks to the team churning out
pitching faster than Bravo cranks out wealthy-skankertainment, but Crawford +
most of the bullpen are losses hard to absorb in a single offseason. The
floor for the Rays is pretty high because at every position, they have ample
depth of non-terrible players, but their 2011 ceiling is also relatively low.
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