[農場] Prospect A to Z Day 14: Nevin Ashley

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間13年前 (2011/11/10 15:24)推噓7(7推 0噓 4→)

留言11則, 7人參與討論串1/1

今天的Prospect A to Z 要介紹農場防守最佳的捕手-Nevin Ashley，也順便聊聊光芒目前的捕手狀況（也可參考E大之前翻譯的"The Rays Catcher Conundrum"。） The Rays have - once again and like nearly every other club - some big decisions to make this offseason. They have to find at least a stopgap solution for shortstop (Nick Punto + Sean Rodriguez anyone?), they have to find at least one above average bat-first player for 1B and DH (internal options for more playing time: Brandon Guyer, Russ Canzler), they should solidify their bullpen by adding some talent to the mix (Mike Gonzalez, Michael Wuertz, Yoel Zumaya, Fernando Cabrera, Josh Kinney, ...) and they have to make a decision about their catching duo for '12 and beyond. 和其他球團一樣，今年休賽期光芒也要做出許多重大的決定。 1.至少找一位可以臨時扛下游擊手的球員(Nick Punto + Sean Rodriguez)。 2.為1B和DH找位水準之上的打者(內部選項則有Brandon Guyer和Russ Canzler)。 3.強化牛棚(Mike Gonzalez、Michael Wuertz、Joel Zumaya……)。最後，決定讓誰在明年球季甚至是未來成為本壘板的守護神。 The Rays catchers combined for only 1.3 WAR (25th in the MLB) with a wOBA of .274 (26th) and an OPS of .611 (27th; all stats from FanGraphs). Versus righties (.573 OPS, .258 wOBA; 27th) they have even been worse. The Rays now more or less have two options (the 3rd option of a stopgap backstop won't do it as there is no sure-fire starting catching prospect in the system right now). They can bring in a catcher who is able of playing 70% of the games (e.g.: Yasmani Grandal, Chris Iannetta, ...) or they can go on with what they have in-house. I'm going to look at the 2nd option. Therefore I also included Kelly Shoppach despite him not having been offered arbitration this week. 光芒捕手的WAR總和為1.3(在所有球隊中，排名25)；wOBA.274(26名)；OPS.611(27名)。對右投手還更糟(.573 OPS，.258 wOBA；27名)。光芒現在有兩個選擇(在農場沒有養出能夠接下先發捕手的人選前，似乎找不到第三選項)。 1.找來一位可以負擔70%比賽的捕手(例如：Yasmani Grandal，Chris Iannetta……)。 2.勉強從球隊中找尋可用之兵。接下來會審視一下第二個選項，因此我也會把Kelly Shoppach納入考慮，雖然本周還沒對他提出報價。 The stats in the following table are the '11 stats from fangraphs for Shoppach and Jaso and the major league equivalents (calculated with this tool) for Lobaton, Ashley, Vogt and Chirinos according to their '11 MiL numbers. The splits for these 4 players are from historical '10 data (from here) and they are not major league equivalents but the real MiL numbers from MiL-splits (the data set for '10 doesn't seem to be complement. I took it anyway in order to get a tendency). They are here in order to show the tendencies of the players. 下表呈現的數據是過去一年Jaso和Shoppach的大聯盟成績，還有Lobaton、Ashley、 Vogt和Chirinos小聯盟成績換算到大聯盟的表現（http://ppt.cc/WgRb）。分項成績則是觀察這四位球員'10年的成績（http://ppt.cc/71AZ），但這部分沒辦法換算成大聯盟的成績('10年的資料不太完整，但為了預測未來的發展，我還是將他整理出來了。)。 '11 STATS SPLITS(OPS) FIELDING Name B AVG/ OBP/ OPS vs.R/ vs.L CS'11(overall)% Fielding rep. J.Jaso L .224/.298/.651 .662/ .574 17(19)% bad K.Shoppach R .176/.268/.607 .431/ .788 41(28)% below avg. J.Lobaton S .257/.352/.763 .752/ .892 31(29)% above avg. R.Chirinos R .220/.290/.602 1.000/1.546 27(20)% below avg. N.Ashley R .225/.313/.633 .683/ .952 48(38)% above avg. S.Vogt L .249/.285/.684 1.013/1.116 20(34)% bad While the front office doesn't seem to be pleased by John Jaso's defense, the platoon splits tell me that he seems to be the only one of the six catchers who very, very likely will be on the Rays opening day roster in '12. He is the only left hander ready for the bigs (according to reports about Stephen Vogt's defensive abilities behind the plate). And even the switch hitter on the list seems to play better against lefties. Therefore, Jaso - barring a trade for or signing of an everyday catcher - seems to be a lock for the next years' roster. After that I could see any one of Shoppach, Lobaton and Chirinos on the roster. In my private roster projection for '12 I have the Rays trading for Yasmani Grandal (giving up Wade Davis+). In this scenario I'd start Grandal in AAA and begin the season with Jaso/Lobaton in the bigs. 雖然管理層似乎對John Jaso的防守不太滿意，但表格呈現出來，他卻是六位捕手中，最有機會確定出現在'12年開幕戰球員名單上的。也是唯一具有大聯盟水準的左打者(根據 Vogt的在本壘板後的防守能力)，甚至連左右開弓的打者都對左投手打得比較好。因此除非交易或是找來一位可以每天上場的捕手，Jaso已經佔據了球員名冊上的一個席次。在這之後，應該會從Shoppach、Lobaton或Chirinos中選出一人。在我個人'12的球員預測中， Rays將會交易來Yasmani Grandal(付出Wade Davis+)。在這個情況下，Grandal一開始可以在AAA每天先發，然後把Jaso/Lobaton擺在大聯盟。 So, if Kelly Shoppach is out of the picture, the Rays will most likely go with John Jaso and one of Jose Lobaton/Robinson Chirinos in 2012. This would mean that one of Chirinos/Lobaton, Nevin Ashley and maybe also Stephen Vogt (mainly in the OF or at DH) would play behind the plate in Durham. Both, Jose Lobaton and Robinson Chirinos, are better against lefties and therefore they'd complement John Jaso very well. This scenario indicates John Jaso getting most of the plate appearances against righties and more than half of all plate appearances. 所以，如果Kelly Shoppach不在藍圖中，光芒明年很有可能在Jaso之外，從Lobaton和 Chirinos中選出一人。這也意味著落選的那位球員會和Ashley，甚至是Stephen Vogt(主要是OF或DH)擔任AAA本壘後方的角色。Jose Lobaton和Robinson Chirinos都較擅長對付左投手，會是Jaso很好的補充。這個情況下，Jaso在對方派出右投時，會獲得最多的出賽時間，也許超過所有比賽的一半。 The front office, however, is not very enthusiastic about Jaso's defense, and, therefore, I think that they will bring Kelly Shoppach back (or another catcher from outside in). The reasons are that he first of all is good against lefties, that he is better defensively than Jaso and that he was a bit unlucky in '11 and looks to be better in '12. This would mean that Shoppach would play most of the games against lefties with John Jaso playing mostly against righties. Shoppach, however, should never ever see a right handed pitcher and therefore we have the same problem again. The '11 John Jaso is not good enough in order to play in 70% of the plate appearances and Kelly Shoppach shouldn't play against a rightie. In this scenario, however, there would be a logjam in AAA as all other four catchers have proven themselves in AA (or even in AAA already). 然而，管理層對Jaso的防守並不滿意，因此我想會找回Shoppach(或其他人選。)。因為他是對左投的表現最好，防守也比Jaso好很多，'11賽季看來有些不幸，'12應該會更好。這意味著Shoppach會面對左投時，會得到較多機會；右投則交給Jaso負責。但Shoppach不會面對任何一名右投手，如此又陷入了相同的問題…。今年Jaso打得不夠好，而Shoppach 又不能面對右投。在這個情況下，其他四位已經在AA(甚至是AAA)證明自己的球員會陷入不上不下的僵局。 Either way, if the Rays don't bring in an MLB ready catcher from outside, they have the same problem. They have four catchers who are ready right now for backup catching duty in the majors (Shoppach, Jaso, Lobaton, Chirinos) with another one having the bat for the majors (Vogt) and the other playing well above average defense (Nevin Ashley). Neither of them, however, seems to be able to play a starting catching role adequately. That's a logjam at a position with below average major league talent. 無論哪個方法，如果光芒沒有從外面找來MLB ready的捕手，問題還是沒有解決。有四位可以擔任大聯盟後補的捕手(Shoppach、Jaso、 Lobaton和Chirinos)，一位打擊已有大聯盟打擊實力的Vogt，還有防守在水準之上的Nevin Ashley，但都不會是合格的先發捕手人選。缺乏具備大聯盟平均天分的球員，導致這個守位陷入僵局。 Therefore, - by individually looking at the catching situation and ignoring other roster moves - I hope for the Rays to trade for/sign a starting catcher. One of Jaso/Chirinos/Lobaton can play a solid backup and one of these three can be traded (in order for them to get a chance in another organization). Then Ashley, Vogt (often at DH and in the OF) and one of Jaso/Chirinos/Lobaton would man the '12 catching duties in Durham, providing very solid major league depth. If the traded for catcher needs more time in the minors (like in my scenario with Grandal who I think should play at least 1-2 months in AAA), I'd start the season with Jaso/Lobaton until this catcher is ready. What do you guys think? 把目光放在捕手問題，並忽略其他人員變動，希望光芒能夠交易或簽下一位先發捕手，不論Jaso、Chirinos還是Lobaton，都能扮演很穩定的替補，而且任何一人都是可以被交易的(這樣他們在別的球隊也可以有更好的發展。)。然後Ashley、Vogt和Jaso/Chirinos/ Lobaton其一會在明年擔任AAA的接捕工作，並為大聯盟提供深度。如果交易來的捕手需要時間養成(例如前面提到的Grandal，我想他還需要1-2個月在AAA磨練)，在他準備好前，我願意先用Jaso/Lobaton的出賽。大家的看法呢？ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.6.244