[農場] Prospect A to Z Day 15: Justin O'Conner

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間13年前 (2011/11/11 13:52)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

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今天Prospect A to Z 要介紹的是去年選進的高中強打捕手-Justin O'Conner。僅管這兩年O'Conner在小聯盟成績並不出色，甚至有點令人失望，但他的天分還是值得期待的。 Justin O'Conner struck out a lot. That's probably not news to you, but it's obviously the first thing that needs to be discussed with him. After signing quickly as the 31st overall pick in 2010, O'Conner played 48 games in the Gulf Coast League to a .211/.301/.348 line - disappointing but not a disaster. Promoted to Princeton in 2011, he played in the same number of games (he had 10 more plate appearances in 2011), so let's see which way his numbers went: Justin O'Conner被三振次數過多也許不是什麼新聞，但明顯這是要先討論的議題。這個 31號簽在'10年很快與球團簽約，並在GCL Rays出賽了48場，打擊三圍是.211/.301/.348─ 令人失望，但還不算是場災難。'11年也在Princeton出賽48場，讓我們來看看他呈現出來的數據： STATS BA OBP SLG 2B HR BB K 2010 .211 .301 .348 13 8 18 46 2011 .157 .234 .354 8 9 17 78 He actually hit for good power when he happened to make contact as his 8 doubles and 9 home runs account for 17 of his 28 hits. But he went from striking out roughly once per game, a 24.6% K%. In 2011 that jumped 15% up to 39.%. That was third-worst in all of the minors, trailing only Juan Romero of the Indians in the AZL (43.5%) and the Red Sox' Seth Schwindenhammer in the NY-PL at 47.1%. Romero hit .225 and Schwindenhammer .213, and it's not hard to guess that a metric ton of strikeouts are going to lead to a low batting average. O'Conner wasn't helped by a .207 BABIP, but even if you bump that up, it maybe brings him over the Mendoza line. 事實上，只要他能碰到球，就能展現很好的長打能力(28支安打中，有8支二壘安打，9支全壘打)。但'10年每場卻大約被三振一次，K% 24.6%，'11年更驟升到39.0%，這個數據在整個小聯盟排名倒數第三，只贏印地安人隊在AZL出賽的Juan Romero(43.5%)和紅襪隊在 NY-PL出賽的Seth Schwindenhammer(47.1%)。Romero的打擊率是.225，Schwindenhammer則是.213，不難猜出低打擊率是高被三振率所致。O'Conner沒從.207的BABIP獲得什麼幫助，如果能提升，也許可以讓他跨過Mendoza line(打擊率.200)。 So is there any hope for him? I think there is. O'Conner still made BA's Appalachian League top 20, because the tools that made him a first rounder -- big power, big arm -- are still there. He threw out 36% of baserunners and should be able to stick behind the dish, meaning he won't have to hit as much as if he were a third or first baseman. 所以應該對他抱以期待嗎？我想是的。BA依然認為O'Conner是所屬聯盟的TOP 20新秀，因為他還是具備強大的力量，出色的臂力。阻殺了36%的跑者，並能夠堅守本壘板，意味著對他的打擊要求不需要仿照一、三壘手。 While Drew Vettleson, Ryan Brett, and maybe even Josh Sale (who also struggled in Princeton, but didn't have anywhere near the swing-and-miss that O'Conner did) should be in Bowling Green next season, there's little doubt that O'Conner belongs in extended spring training to start the year and work on his swing. Then he'll likely head to Hudson Valley, where the hope is he can get his strikeouts back down to once per game and be happy with that, as he's probably never going to excel at making contact. 雖然Drew Vettleson、Ryan Brett也許還有Josh Sale(也在Princeton陷入掙扎，但還不至於像O'Conner揮不到球…。)，會在下個賽季升上A，但O'Conner毫無疑問必須從延長春訓出發，在揮棒上下點工夫。接下來很可能會升上A-，只要可以重新把三振率拉回每場一次就是令人高興的消息了，因為他永遠不會具備出色的擊球能力。註：Justin O'Conner和Lucas Bailey應該是目前低階聯盟最有潛力的兩位捕手，但這兩位球員的打擊表現都不理想。另外，O'Conner在高中時期也是位很好的投手，如果真的養不起來，可以考慮棄打從投……。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.6.244 ※ 編輯: csy1911 來自: 140.118.6.244 (11/11 13:53)